1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Affected by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, market sentiment is positive, driving up rubber prices. However, the trading atmosphere in the spot market has cooled, and tire factories are cautious about purchasing high - priced raw materials, limiting the upside of rubber prices. It is expected that rubber prices will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the 01 contract's range referring to 15,000 - 16,500. Follow the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in the main producing areas, and consider short - selling at high levels if the raw material supply is smooth [1]. Polysilicon - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increased, but the supply growth rate was larger, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit likely to be between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. When the price is high, consider buying put options to short when the volatility is low [3]. Industrial Silicon - From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, raising the cost center of industrial silicon. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will weaken. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and the main price fluctuation range may be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Logs - The current main contract has switched to the 2511 contract, and the disk valuation fluctuates around the delivery cost and the receiving value range. There is an expectation of marginal improvement in the follow - up fundamentals. The demand is currently firm, maintaining at the level of 60,000 cubic meters. The inventory continues to decline due to less unloading at ports and strong outbound volume. It is expected that the overall shipment in September will be the same as that in August. The new warehouse receipts being registered may suppress the disk. It is recommended to go long on dips [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The impact of the coking coal event is gradually weakening, and the futures market continues to weaken. The weekly output has rebounded significantly, and the inventory is in a continuous pattern. The current weekly output corresponds to an obvious excess of demand. In the medium - term, after the photovoltaic rush installation in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass capacity has slowed down, and the float glass capacity has remained flat. There is still pressure on supply and demand in the future, and there may be further cold - repair expectations. Therefore, there is no growth expectation for the overall demand of soda ash. It is recommended to hold short positions [7]. - **Glass**: The impact of the coking coal event is gradually weakening, and the futures market continues to weaken. The middle - stream continuous shipment suppresses the spot price, and manufacturers are forced to cut prices. The market negative feedback continues. The near - month 09 contract has a weak reality, and the far - month 01 contract has a weak expectation. The deep - processing orders are weak, and the low - e glass production rate is continuously low. There is a certain pressure on the rigid demand side of glass. In the long - run, at the bottom of the real estate cycle, the completion volume is shrinking, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply dilemma. High - level short positions established earlier can be closed for profit, waiting for new logical drivers [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan to 14,900 yuan, a decline of 0.33% from August 26th. The full - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 75 yuan to - 860 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.02% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 40 yuan, a rise of 4.02%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5 yuan, a rise of 5.56%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 45 yuan, a decline of 4.15% [1]. Production and Consumption Analysis - In June, Thailand's production was 392,600 tons, a 44.23% increase from the previous value; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a 12.03% decrease; India's production was 62,400 tons, a 30.82% increase; China's production was 103,200 tons, a 7.05% increase. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, a 1.06 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires was 64.76%, a 1.67 - percentage - point increase. In July, domestic tire production was 94.364 million units, an 8.16% decrease; tire exports were 66.65 million units, a 10.51% increase. The total import volume of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, a 2.47% increase [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory decreased by 3,121 tons to 616,731 tons, a 0.50% decrease; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 1,612 tons to 44,857 tons, a 3.47% decrease [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 49,000 yuan; the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 2,295 yuan to 310 yuan, a 115.62% increase [3]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price decreased by 2,295 yuan to 48,690 yuan, a 4.50% decrease. The spread between the current month and the next - month contract increased by 160 yuan, a 266.67% increase [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The silicon wafer output was 12.29 GW, a 1.57% increase; the polysilicon output was 2.91 kilotons, a 0.68% decrease. Monthly: The polysilicon output was 101 kilotons, a 5.10% increase; the polysilicon import volume was 0.12 kilotons, a 47.48% increase; the polysilicon export volume was 0.21 kilotons, a 3.92% decrease [3]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.7 kilotons to 24.9 kilotons, a 2.89% increase; the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.39 GW to 17.41 GW, a 12.07% decrease; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 10 lots to 6,880 lots [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 9,300 yuan, a 0.53% decrease; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) decreased by 80 yuan to 775 yuan, a 7.19% decrease [4]. Inter - month Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 25 yuan, a 16.67% increase; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 12 yuan, a 25.00% increase [4]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output was 338.3 kilotons, a 3.23% increase; the Xinjiang industrial silicon output was 150.3 kilotons, a 15.21% decrease; the Yunnan industrial silicon output was 41.2 kilotons, a 153.86% increase [4]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang inventory increased by 0.31 kilotons to 12.01 kilotons, a 2.65% increase; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.05 kilotons to 3.19 kilotons, a 1.59% increase [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The price of log 2509 decreased by 9.5 yuan to 792 yuan, a 1.19% decrease; the 09 contract basis increased by 9.5 yuan to - 42 yuan [6]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.156, an increase of 0.002; the import theoretical cost was 815.74 yuan, an increase of 0.20 yuan [6]. Supply (Monthly) - The port shipment volume was 1.733 million cubic meters, a 1.51% decrease; the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 47, an 11.32% decrease [6]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - The national log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a 0.33% decrease; the Shandong inventory was 1.86 million cubic meters, a 0.32% increase [6]. Demand: Daily Outbound Volume (Weekly) - The national daily outbound volume was 64,500 cubic meters, a 2% increase; the Shandong daily outbound volume was 34,900 cubic meters, a 3% decrease [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quotation remained unchanged at 1,140 yuan; the glass 2505 contract price increased by 1 yuan to 1,267 yuan, a 0.08% increase; the 05 contract basis decreased by 1 yuan to - 127 yuan, a 0.79% decrease [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation remained unchanged at 1,350 yuan; the soda ash 2505 contract price decreased by 2 yuan to 1,375 yuan, a 0.15% decrease; the 05 contract basis increased by 2 yuan to - 25 yuan, a 7.41% increase [7]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate was 88.48%, a 1.33% increase; the weekly soda ash output was 771.4 kilotons, a 1.33% increase; the float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons [7]. Inventory - The glass market inventory increased by 18 kilotons to 6,360.6 kilotons, a 0.28% increase; the soda ash factory inventory increased by 17 kilotons to 1,910.6 kilotons, a 0.89% increase [7]. Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year Monthly) - The new construction area growth rate was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the construction area growth rate was 0.05%, a 2.43 - percentage - point decrease; the completion area growth rate was - 0.22%, a 0.03 - percentage - point decrease; the sales area growth rate was - 6.55%, a 6.50 - percentage - point decrease [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - Specific varieties: iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all rated as "oscillation" [6][7][10][11][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black price is in a weak oscillation. Although the demand is weakly expected in the peak season, the cost supply is disturbed, and there is a driving force for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. The follow - up should focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. - After the decline of the glass futures and spot market sentiment, the supply is expected to be stable, and the short - term is expected to oscillate widely. The long - term price center will decline [13][14]. - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to the same period last year, with relatively stable total supply [2]. - Demand: The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter decreased significantly. There is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased this week, and the total inventory slightly declined [2]. - Outlook: The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - Supply: Production in some mines is restricted, and coal mine safety inspections are increasing. Although the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port remains high, overall, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [2]. - Demand: The eighth round of coke price increase is restarted, and the demand for coking coal has slightly declined in the short term. Downstream purchases on demand, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but there is no obvious inventory pressure [2]. - Outlook: Before the parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increase to be implemented, the futures market is still supported [11]. Coke - Supply: After the seventh - round price increase was fully implemented, the profits of coking enterprises recovered. As the parade approaches, the start - up of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production [10]. - Demand: Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but affected by the parade, the start - up of some steel mills in North China will also be restricted, and the demand is affected [10]. - Outlook: The game of the eighth - round price increase continues. Before the parade, the futures market is still supported, but the actual implementation is difficult [10]. 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - Supply: The production level has reached a high point this year, and the market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profits are good, but as the parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, and the short - term demand for manganese silicon is expected to decline [2]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited due to cost support, but the long - term price center may decline [16]. Ferrosilicon - Supply: Manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated, and production has gradually reached a high level [17]. - Demand: Steel production will decline slightly during the parade, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking will decline. The magnesium market has supply pressure and weak demand [17]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited, but the long - term price center is expected to decline [17][18]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable [2]. - Demand: The demand in the off - season has declined, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month. The inventory days of raw sheets have reached a high point this year, and the mid - stream and downstream lack the ability to replenish inventory [13]. - Outlook: The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price is expected to decline after returning to fundamental trading [13][14]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The long - term supply pressure still exists, and short - term production is affected. It is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future [15]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain stable, and the demand for light soda ash is flat, with weak downstream replenishment sentiment [15]. - Outlook: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [15]. 3.6 Steel - Supply: The production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. The supply of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little [6]. - Demand: The demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains at a high level, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down [6]. - Outlook: The short - term futures market is expected to oscillate widely, and the follow - up should focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [6]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Supply: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased week - on - week [8]. - Demand: The profit of electric furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process furnaces has slightly increased, and the total daily consumption has increased slightly [8]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The weak demand pattern of finished steel is obvious, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively improved, the prices still face the risk of continuous decline. The raw material side is relatively more resilient than the finished steel products. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished steel products [3]. - The supply of iron ore is in the traditional shipping off - season of overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability of steel mills continues to decline, and the firm raw material prices have a certain impact on steel mill profits. The short - term increase in hot metal may be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not prominent for the time being, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - The prices of ferroalloys have dropped rapidly, and the market is affected by emotions. In the short term, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations. In the long run, prices will move closer to the fundamentals [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and the short - term operating range is 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon may be adjusted in the short term, with support levels at 47000 and 44000 yuan/ton [15][16]. - Glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it follows macro - sentiment fluctuations. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [18][19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3113 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton (- 0.79%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3367 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton (- 0.64%) from the previous trading day. The rebar inventory continued to accumulate, and the demand was still weak. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but the inventory had increased for six consecutive weeks [2]. - **Market Situation**: The overall demand for finished steel is weak, the production volume is still at a high level, and the demand - side support is insufficient. The profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the market is showing weak characteristics. If the demand cannot improve, the prices may continue to decline [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 775.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.13% (- 1.00), and the position increased by 1884 hands to 45.47 million hands. The weighted position was 80.06 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 40.31 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.94% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overseas iron ore shipping rhythm was stable. The demand for iron ore was basically flat, and the steel mill profitability continued to decline. The port inventory continued to rise slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased slightly. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On August 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) continued to fluctuate weakly, closing down 0.51% at 5832 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) fluctuated downward, closing down 0.39% at 5634 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Market Situation**: The prices of ferroalloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The supply of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in downstream demand [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8525 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 10). The price is expected to fluctuate, and the short - term operating range is 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 48690 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4.50% (- 2295). The price may be adjusted in the short term, with support levels at 47000 and 44000 yuan/ton [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. The inventory pressure increased slightly, and the downstream demand was still weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the valuation should not be overly underestimated [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was stable, and the inventory pressure decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel price continues to fluctuate after the macro - sentiment fades, and the glass and soda ash markets fluctuate due to repeated market sentiment. The double - silicon market sentiment cools down, and ferroalloy futures decline slightly [1][3] - For glass, the supply - demand contradiction is large, and it needs low prices and low profits to reduce supply. For soda ash, the supply - demand imbalance will intensify, and it needs to limit capacity release through losses [1] - Both the silicon manganese and silicon iron industries have obvious over - supply, and need to limit production through losses. Their prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector [3] Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass futures oscillated weakly yesterday, with the main 2601 contract down 1.76%. Spot trading sentiment is average. Supply is stable in production and sales, but factory inventories are growing. The supply - demand contradiction is large, and short - term premium suppresses prices. Later, attention should be paid to the performance of peak - season demand [1] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures declined yesterday, with the main 2601 contract down 1.8%. Spot prices were adjusted downwards, and downstream buyers purchase at low prices. Supply is increasing as summer maintenance nears the end. Consumption is currently stable but is expected to weaken with new capacity coming online. The supply - demand imbalance will intensify, and losses are needed to limit capacity release. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the photovoltaic sector [1] Double - Silicon - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures declined yesterday. The main contract closed at 5862 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot market oscillated. Production and sales increased month - on - month, and inventories decreased. The cost increased slightly due to a small increase in manganese ore prices. The industry has obvious over - supply, and losses are needed to limit production. Prices are expected to follow the sector, and attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support, inventory, and ore shipments [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures declined slightly yesterday. The main contract closed at 5656 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot market sentiment was average, and prices were slightly adjusted. Production and sales increased, and factory inventories decreased, but absolute inventories are still high, suppressing prices. The industry has obvious over - supply, and losses are needed to limit production. Prices are expected to follow the sector, and attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions, cost support, and industrial policies [3] Strategies - **Glass**: Oscillate weakly [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillate weakly [2] - **Silicon Manganese**: Oscillate [4] - **Silicon Iron**: Oscillate [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - The mid - term outlooks for individual varieties such as iron ore, coke, etc. are also "oscillation" [7][8][10][11] Core Viewpoints - The black market has limited upside potential due to weak terminal demand expectations, but there is support from supply disruptions and downstream restocking needs. The market will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Market Analysis - The black market's upward movement lacks drive, with the previous day's gains mostly erased and coking coal leading the decline. Supply constraints for furnace materials remain, and the downside space for prices is limited. Steel apparent demand is weak, and it is in the restocking window before the peak season. If there is topic - driven news, there is a small rebound space; otherwise, it will oscillate. Attention should be paid to future demand and furnace material supply recovery [1]. By Variety Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments decreased, 45 - port arrivals slightly declined, and total supply is relatively stable. Iron ore demand is expected to remain high as iron - making water production increases slightly. Port inventories decreased slightly. With limited negative driving factors in the fundamentals, prices are expected to oscillate [2][7][8]. Coking Coal - Some coal mines have resumed production, but some are still restricted by accidents and safety inspections. Import volumes are high but have recently declined briefly. Coking coal's short - term rigid demand has slightly decreased, and some mines have inventory accumulation, but overall inventory pressure is not significant. The short - term futures market still has support [2][12]. Coke - The eighth round of price increases has started, with regional differentiation. Some areas' coking production is restricted. Upstream coking enterprises' inventories are still low, and short - term supply and demand remain tight under simultaneous coking and steel production restrictions. Before the parade, the futures market still has support [11]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Before the parade, manufacturers' raw material restocking is nearly finished, port prices are loosening, and supply pressure is increasing. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship may become looser, and prices may face downward pressure [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled, and there are concerns in the fundamentals [2]. Glass - After the futures price decline, the spot market sentiment has cooled. Supply is expected to remain stable, and there is some inventory accumulation upstream. Cost support has strengthened due to rising coal prices, but the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely [2][13]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, spot trading volume has increased slightly. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2][5][15]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has decreased, and the fundamentals' contradictions are not prominent. Due to the pressure on finished product prices, electric furnace profits are low, but resources are still tight, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [9].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a stable yet weak trend, with prices showing little fluctuation across various regions [2][3]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in North China range from 1220 to 1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are between 1240 and 1350 CNY/ton [2]. - Northeast region prices for light soda ash are between 1330 and 1410 CNY/ton, and for heavy soda ash, they range from 1340 to 1500 CNY/ton [2]. - The soda ash price index for light soda ash is 1210, remaining unchanged, while the heavy soda ash index is 1254.29, reflecting a decrease of 1.43, or -0.11% [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply is tightening as companies like Wucai Soda Industry are undergoing maintenance, and Shaanxi Xinghua has plans for repairs, leading to an overall contraction in supply [2]. - Downstream demand remains limited, with companies primarily maintaining just-in-time inventory, which does not provide substantial support to the market [2]. Futures Market Dynamics - On August 26, the main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1336 CNY/ton and closed at 1311 CNY/ton, showing a daily decline of 1.80% [5]. - The market sentiment is affected by a general decline in the chemical sector, with high inventory levels persisting despite supply-side maintenance [5]. Future Market Predictions - There are upcoming maintenance plans from some companies, which may cause slight fluctuations in supply [6]. - Demand is expected to remain cautious, with limited order releases, and the overall inventory in the industry is still high [6].

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly oscillate weakly. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: There are few maintenance works at soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass is declining, and terminal demand is weakening. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,311 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 111 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, suggesting a bearish trend [2][36]. - Market trend: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, showing a bearish sign [2]. - Main positions: The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand of soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The peak season for summer maintenance is coming, and production will decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with industry output at a historical high for the same period; the production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has been reduced, weakening the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment from the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.94%, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe decreased by 1.64%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 5.13% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The production profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that using the East China combined - soda process is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 88.48%, and the seasonal decline in the operating rate has been postponed [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 771,400 tons, including 425,200 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with the output at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale increase in new production capacity of soda ash, with a total planned increase of 1.57 billion tons, and the actual production launched in 2025 is 1 million tons [21]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [24]. - In the downstream of soda ash, the national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [33]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of various indicators [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening, with the market focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes are expected to show short - term range - bound trends, and specific investment strategies vary according to different sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about central bank independence, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus has been strengthened, and the short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased while domestic easing expectations have increased, resulting in an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. - Asset Recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; commodities in different sectors are generally expected to oscillate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as rare earth concepts, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. - With the strengthening of policy stimulus, the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty, and the increase in domestic easing expectations, the short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported in the short term due to increased concerns about independence, rising risk of stagflation, and strengthened rate - cut expectations. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude changes, and the market focus is on the upcoming US PCE data [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of steel continued to be weak. Demand was weak, inventory increased, and supply was expected to decline in the future. With strong cost support, a range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined. With strong northern production - restriction expectations, cautious procurement by steel mills, and increasing supply pressure, a range - bound approach is expected in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. Supply in some regions was increasing, but there were potential production - cut plans. A range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: There is a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term under the boost of real - estate news [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The impact of Trump's attempt to remove Cook on the copper market is expected to be small in the short term, and domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price declined slightly. The fundamentals changed little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the long term, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate in a range, considering the high - level oscillation of black metals and polysilicon [13]. - **Polysilicon**: It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and the potential impact of US tariffs on India's oil imports have affected oil prices. There is still some support for oil prices in the near term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and rising crude oil prices, but with limited inventory reduction, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near term [16]. - **PX**: It is in a tight situation in the short term and is expected to oscillate while waiting for changes in PTA device operations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by capacity adjustments and increased downstream demand, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. Supported by downstream demand recovery, but facing supply pressure, short - term buying on dips should pay attention to crude oil cost fluctuations [18][19]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by sector resonance, its price increased slightly. It is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, but the oversupply situation remains. It is expected to oscillate in price [19]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, but there is policy support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [19]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of turning. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on demand and inventory - building [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The selling pressure of US Treasuries has increased, and the weakening of the US dollar has provided some support to commodities. The expected Sino - US trade negotiations have boosted the export sales expectations of US soybeans [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has eased. Rapeseed meal still has the basis for upward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [21]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to shrink; soybean oil is expected to have a low - valuation price - increase market; palm oil is expected to enter an oscillating phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and there is a low possibility of breaking through the previous range [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and the second - fattening market is cautious. The market's pessimistic sentiment about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The demand for finished steel products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively improved, the prices may continue to decline. [3] - The supply and demand contradictions of iron ore are not prominent for the moment, and its price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress and the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. [6] - The prices of ferrous alloys have dropped rapidly. In the short - term, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The fundamental problems of over - supply in the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron industries remain. [7][8][9] - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and is expected to have high - volatility. [12][13][14] - The price of glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and the price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price of soda ash may gradually rise, but the increase is limited. [16][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3113 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.79%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3367 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. [2] - **Market Analysis**: The export volume of steel increased slightly this week but remained in a weak and volatile pattern. The output of rebar decreased significantly this week, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to rise, production increased rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. [3] Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 776.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.33% (-10.50), and the position changed to 45.29 million hands. The weighted position was 80.85 million hands. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.08%. [5] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipping was stable. Australian shipping increased, Brazilian shipping decreased, and non - mainstream shipping decreased slightly. The recent arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output was basically flat, the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory decreased slightly. [6] Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On August 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.61% at 5862 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron (SF511) closed down 0.42% at 5656 yuan/ton. [7] - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferrous alloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and production continued to rise. There were no obvious fundamental contradictions in silicon iron, and supply also continued to increase. [8][9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8515 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.84% (-160). The weighted contract position changed to 526046 hands. [11] - **Market Analysis**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand of industrial silicon remained. Production continued to rise, and the support from the demand side was limited. It was expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. [12] - **Polysilicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50985 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.15% (-595). The weighted contract position changed to 320439 hands. [13] - **Market Analysis**: Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. Production continued to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. It was expected to have high - volatility. [14] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price in Shahe was 1138 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1070 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million heavy boxes, up 180,000 heavy boxes (0.28%) from the previous period. [16] - **Market Analysis**: The production of glass remained high, inventory pressure increased slightly, and downstream real - estate demand did not improve significantly. The price adjustment space was limited, and the market expected policy support. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. [16] - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of soda ash was 1200 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons (1.19%) from last Thursday. [17] - **Market Analysis**: The price of soda ash fluctuated with the coal - chemical sector. The downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and gradually rise in the long - term, but the increase was limited. [17]

Core Viewpoint - The glass industry is undergoing transformation, and effective risk management through financial tools like futures is essential for survival and cost optimization [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Changes and Risk Management - The glass and soda ash industries are experiencing significant changes, making risk management a necessity for survival rather than an option [2]. - Futures tools have been introduced in various sectors, including float glass and polysilicon, providing new opportunities for businesses to hedge against price volatility [2][3]. - The initial engagement with futures began in 2020, evolving from indirect participation to direct hedging strategies by 2024 [2][3]. Group 2: Operational Strategies and Achievements - The company established a dedicated team to enhance its understanding of futures trading, transitioning from passive risk management to proactive profit generation [3][4]. - In April 2024, the company successfully locked in a price of 1800 CNY/ton for soda ash, mitigating the impact of rising prices on procurement costs [4]. - By utilizing flexible pricing models, the company managed to lower procurement costs by over 200 CNY/ton during a price decline, ensuring continuous production and effective inventory management [4][5]. Group 3: Risk Control and Systematic Management - The integration of futures with physical trading has transformed the glass industry, allowing participants to actively manage price and inventory risks [5][6]. - A comprehensive risk control system has been established, including daily and weekly reports to monitor market trends and manage risks effectively [6][7]. - The company emphasizes the importance of aligning futures trading with actual business operations to avoid speculative behaviors and ensure risk is manageable [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Collaboration - The company aims to enhance collaboration within the supply chain by leveraging financial tools to address price fluctuations and reduce operational costs [7]. - There is a strong belief that futures will become a common language within the industry, facilitating better communication and cooperation among businesses [7].