国际货币基金组织（IMF）发言人13日表示，受到政府"停摆"的部分影响，预计美国第四季度GDP增速 将低于此前IMF预测的1.9%。但由于"停摆"导致数据匮乏，IMF评估美国经济表现的能力受到影响。 美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特预计，美国第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速将因政府"停摆"而下降1.5个 百分点。 新华财经北京11月14日电美国总统特朗普于当地时间11月12日晚签署联邦政府临时拨款法案，本轮创纪 录的美国联邦政府"停摆"暂时宣告落幕。由于担忧政府"停摆"造成的数据缺失将令美联储决策面临困 局，投资者减少了对12月降息的押注，美国国债收益率于11月13日普遍上涨2-4个基点。 截至13日尾盘，10年期美债收益率上涨4个基点，报4.12%；2年期美债收益率涨2个基点，报3.59%。 美国国会预算办公室估计，为期六周的"停摆"将给美国造成约110亿美元的经济损失。堪萨斯州共和党 参议员杰里·莫兰表示，政府"停摆"不仅对美国选民和经济造成损害，还向全世界发出了一个危险信号 ——"我们是不可靠的伙伴，无法齐心协力履行国会最基本职责"。 明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利也对12月货币政策会议的行动方向持 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-11-14 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-11-14 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 10 月金融数据发布，存款搬家持续 观点分享： 人民银行发布 10 月金融数据：新增社融 0.8 万亿元，同比少增 0.6 万亿元，余额同比增 速 8.5%，增速较上月下降 0.2 个百分点；新增贷款 0.2 万亿元，同比少增 2800 亿元，余额 同比增速 6.5%，增速较上月下降 0.1 个百分点。M1/M2 增速+6.2%/+8.2%，分别环比下 降 1.0 和 0.2 个百分点。10 月信贷继续同比少增，主要由于当前处于投放淡季，以及政策性 金融工具拉动效应尚未显现的窗口期。另外值得关注的是，10 月 M1 增速环比下降 1.0 个百 分点至 6.2%，显示存款活化趋势在高基数下略有放缓。但非银存款增速较 9 月上升 2.1 个百 分点至 11.8%，同比多增 7700 亿元，显示在资本市场活跃背景下，存款搬家进程仍在延 续。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | PX | ★★★★ | PX：中期趋势偏强 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first ten months of this year, RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan, with corporate loans accounting for 13.79 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Loan Statistics - As of the end of October, the total RMB loan balance reached 270.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [1] - In the first ten months, household loans increased by 739.6 billion yuan, while corporate loans rose by 13.79 trillion yuan, with medium to long-term loans contributing 8.32 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Money Supply - By the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.13 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) reached 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [1] Group 3: Deposit Statistics - In the first ten months, RMB deposits increased by 23.32 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 11.39 trillion yuan [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic data shows a mixed picture, with some indicators like GDP growth and consumption having positive trends, while others such as exports face challenges. The monetary policy has space but its marginal efficiency is declining, and there is a need to shift the macro - control approach from over - reliance on investment to promoting consumption and benefiting people's livelihoods. The bond market may have opportunities from December this year to early next year, and the stock market shows certain upward momentum [1][2][16][29]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In September 2025, GDP growth at constant prices was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year. In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, lower than the previous value of 49.8% and the same - period value of 50.1%. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, slightly up from 50% in the previous period but down from 50.2% last year. Social financing scale increment in October was 814.9 billion yuan, significantly lower than 3529.6 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 1412 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The cumulative social financing scale increment in the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year. At the end of October, the year - on - year growth rates of social financing stock and M2 were 8.5% and 8.2% respectively, both down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The 10 - month economic data indicates that offline consumption, infrastructure construction, and industrial production are showing positive trends [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - On November 13, international precious metal futures generally fell. Uncertainty about economic data and the Fed's policy stance affected the market. Gold futures had a large inflow of funds, and the trading volume increased significantly. The inventory of some metals changed, with zinc and aluminum inventories increasing, and lead and copper inventories decreasing [4][5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In Liaodong, a large - scale gold deposit, the Dadonggou Gold Mine, was discovered, with a proven gold metal content of 1444.49 tons [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The "Management Measures" aim to rationalize the investment and construction mechanism of oil and gas pipeline infrastructure. On November 13, the price of US crude oil futures rose. The IEA raised the forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025, and concerns about supply tightening also supported the price [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In October, the US soybean crushing volume reached a record high, while Brazil's coffee exports decreased. China plans to purchase US soybeans, and Indonesia's palm oil exports may decline in 2026 due to the B50 plan [12][13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 13, the central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 9.72 billion yuan [15]. 3.3.2 Key News - The social financing scale and M2 growth rates decreased month - on - month. The US government ended its 43 - day shutdown. China's economic fundamentals are solid, with consumption showing a good trend, especially in lower - tier cities. Some companies have bond - related issues, and overseas credit ratings of some companies have changed [16][18][22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market weakened, with most bond yields rising slightly. The yields of US and European bonds also increased. Some institutions issued bonds, and their yields and subscription multiples are provided [23][27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell. Non - US currencies mostly rose [28]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different research institutions have different views on the bond market. CICC believes that the social financing scale may continue to decline, and bond allocation is favorable for interest rate decline. Yangtze River believes that the probability of a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut is low, and the interest rate cut window may open from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year. Xingzheng suggests a defensive strategy for US bonds [29]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's chairman exchanged views on capital market cooperation with French and Brazilian regulatory authorities. A - shares and the Hong Kong stock market rose, with different sectors performing differently [32][33].

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has detected signs of weakness in the US economy, predicting that the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter will be lower than the previously forecasted 1.9% [1] - Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities, noted that there is significant uncertainty regarding the economic situation [1] Group 2 - Comments from senior Federal Reserve officials have diminished market confidence in a potential rate cut in December [3] - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem emphasized the need for caution in further rate cuts due to inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target [3] - Federal Reserve officials, including Kashkari and Harmack, expressed a preference to maintain current interest rates to continue addressing inflation [3]

【资讯导读】 ·美国结束史上最长政府停摆 ·IMF：美国经济显露疲态 ·美国10月CPI报告"缺席" ·美联储降息路径存争议 【市场资讯】 ·英国第三季度GDP环比微增0.1%，其中9月单月经济萎缩0.1%。服务业小幅增长难抵制造业急剧下滑， 整体复苏动能明显减弱。 【全球市场动态】 ·道琼斯工业指数下跌1.65%报47457.22点，标准普尔500指数下跌1.66%报6737.49点，纳斯达克综合指数 下跌2.29%报22870.36点。 ·新加坡金融管理局计划于明年启动代币化MAS票据发行试点，并同步制定稳定币监管法规，旨在构建 可扩展、安全且合规的代币化金融生态系统。 ·受政府停摆影响，美国劳工统计局未能如期发布10月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告。白宫方面甚至暗示 该数据可能永不公布。国家经济委员会主任哈塞特透露，9月就业报告或将于下周部分发布，但仅包含 新增就业岗位数，不含失业率。 ·多位美联储官员就货币政策走向表达立场：卡什卡利反对上一次降息，但尚未决定12月行动；穆萨勒 姆和哈马克强调应谨慎对待进一步降息，主张维持利率以压制通胀；戴利认为经济不确定性下降、通胀 趋缓但仍顽固，12月是否降息"为时过 ...

天津荣程联合钢铁集团有限公司的生产车间里，几尾鱼游弋在鱼池中，养殖所用的水全部来自企业打造 的水净化系统。这家曾经高耗能、高排放的企业，如今已成为天津推动绿色转型的典型之一。 不久前，天津市首笔"生物多样性+可持续发展挂钩贷款"落地，资金用于天津市宁河区七里海湿地周边 经营开发蟹稻共生项目。 2025年8月，天津成为生物多样性金融标准试点应用地区。七里海湿地周边经营开发蟹稻共生项目，便 是天津地区生物多样性农业的典型代表。此次，威海银行为企业量身定制了"生物多样性+可持续发展 挂钩贷款"方案，发放贷款金额1000万元，助力企业扩大养殖规模、提升养殖品质。 南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉认为，以助力传统行业绿色转型为代表，绿色金融正在多个领域提 供强大的赋能作用。天津绿色金融实践不断深入，正在吸引一批绿色产业项目落地，越来越多的新能 源、节能环保、生态农业等企业选择在天津布局，进一步壮大了天津的绿色产业规模，形成了金融与绿 色产业良性互动、协同发展的良好局面。 集团党委书记柴树满告诉记者，近年来企业对生产过程中的废水、废气等资源进行了收集净化再利用， 企业的"绿色"程度不断提升。 今年年初，天津农商银行成功为 ...

Market Performance - On November 13, the A-share market experienced a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high and the ChiNext Index rising over 2% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4029.5, up 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78% to 13476.52, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.55% to 3201.75 [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 969 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The lithium battery industry chain saw widespread gains, with significant activity in the consumer sector and a notable surge in the Fujian sector [2] - A total of 104 stocks hit the daily limit up, while the oil and gas sector faced declines [2] - Energy metals, battery, and non-ferrous metals sectors led the gains, while sectors like fentanyl and oil and gas experienced the largest declines [2] International Market Overview - On the same day, U.S. stock indices saw significant declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 797.60 points (1.65%) to 47457.22, and the Nasdaq Composite falling 536.10 points (2.29%) to 22870.36 [4] - European markets also closed lower, with the FTSE 100 down 1.05% and the DAX index down 1.39% [4] - International oil prices saw slight increases, with WTI crude oil rising 0.34% to $58.69 per barrel [4] Financial Data - As of the end of October, China's social financing scale stock was 437.72 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [6] - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [6] Regulatory Developments - The Chinese government is reinforcing export controls on rare earth materials to maintain national security and stability [7] - The market regulatory authority plans to enhance anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition enforcement to address "involution" competition issues [8] - A new revised "Commercial Bank M&A Loan Management Measures" is set to be released to support mergers and acquisitions, particularly for tech companies [9] Corporate News - Alibaba has secretly launched the "Qianwen" project, aiming to develop a personal AI assistant to compete with ChatGPT [12] - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a 41.1% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters [17] - BoRui Pharmaceutical received approval for clinical trials of its BGM1812 injection, which is the first of its kind for weight loss indications [18]

Group 1 - The article discusses the new national standard for vehicle safety, which includes a requirement for passenger cars to have a default acceleration time of no less than 5 seconds per 100 kilometers after ignition [2][3] - The standard aims to enhance safety measures in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle market, reflecting a shift from reactive to proactive regulation [3] - The implementation of this standard is expected to take place six months after the public consultation period ends, replacing the current GB 7258 standard [2] Group 2 - Seventeen major automotive brands have introduced tax subsidy plans to cover the vehicle purchase tax for consumers who place orders before the end of the year, as the full exemption on purchase tax for new energy vehicles will end in 2025 [4][5] - The government has announced that from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2025, new energy vehicles will continue to be exempt from purchase tax, with a maximum exemption of 30,000 yuan per vehicle [4] - As the purchase tax incentives decline, automotive companies are under pressure to maintain sales, leading to a more rational competitive environment in the industry [5] Group 3 - A city commercial bank in Shenzhen has reduced its mortgage loan interest rate to a record low of 2.22%, which is currently the lowest in the Shenzhen market [6] - The competitive landscape among banks in Shenzhen has intensified, with various institutions offering lower rates to attract more loan customers [6][7] - The overall demand for loans has decreased due to slow recovery in manufacturing profits and consumer spending, leading to a decline in new loan growth [7] Group 4 - Tencent reported a 15% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3, reaching 192.87 billion yuan, with significant contributions from its gaming and financial technology sectors [8] - The company’s R&D expenditure hit a record high of 22.82 billion yuan, reflecting its commitment to innovation, particularly in AI [8] - Tencent's performance exceeded market expectations, driven by strong growth in its core gaming business and an uptick in demand for financial technology services [8] Group 5 - Luckin Coffee is preparing to relaunch its listing in the U.S., aiming to enhance its brand influence and market competitiveness [9] - The company has surpassed Starbucks to become the largest coffee retailer in China and is expanding its presence in the U.S. market [9] - Despite past financial scandals, Luckin has focused on profitability and operational efficiency under new management [9] Group 6 - OpenAI has released GPT-5.1, which includes two versions aimed at improving user interaction through more natural communication and enhanced task handling capabilities [10][11] - The update addresses previous user feedback regarding the emotional tone of responses, aiming to balance intelligence and user satisfaction [10][11] - The introduction of a commercial world model by AI expert Fei-Fei Li is expected to revolutionize 3D content creation across various industries [12][13] Group 7 - The stock market experienced a rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, driven by strong performance in the lithium battery and consumer sectors [14][15] - The market's overall trading volume increased significantly, indicating heightened investor activity [14] - Despite the index's rise, the article suggests that structural market dynamics may remain unchanged, with a trend towards index-based investing becoming more prevalent [15]

New Stock Offerings - Hai'an Group is offering shares with a subscription code of 001233 at a price of 48.00 CNY per share, with a subscription limit of 14,500 shares [1] Economic and Regulatory Updates - The Ministry of Commerce held a press conference discussing ongoing negotiations with the Netherlands regarding semiconductor supply chain stability, emphasizing the need for constructive solutions [4] - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing increased by 30.9 trillion CNY in the first ten months of 2025, which is 3.83 trillion CNY more than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5% [5] - The State Council will hold a press conference on November 14, 2025, to discuss the national economic performance for October 2025 [5] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau plans to release a revised "Commercial Bank Mergers and Acquisitions Loan Management Measures" to support mergers and restructuring, particularly for technology enterprises [5] Industry Developments - China has completed the first phase of 6G technology trials, accumulating over 300 key technology reserves [6] - The "Petroleum and Natural Gas Infrastructure Planning, Construction, and Operation Management Measures" will take effect on January 1, 2026, aiming to streamline investment mechanisms in oil and gas infrastructure [6] - The World Power Battery Conference highlighted the expanding applications of electric technology across various sectors, with a focus on high-quality development in the power battery industry [7] Company Performance - Tencent Holdings reported third-quarter revenue of 192.87 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 15% [9] - JD Group's third-quarter revenue reached 299.1 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 14.9% [10] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) posted a net profit of 1.517 billion CNY in the third quarter, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 43.1% [11] Market Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the current A-share profit cycle is improving, with signs of recovery in asset balance sheets and orders, suggesting a positive outlook for sectors like advanced manufacturing and TMT [22] - Zhongyuan Securities reported a sustained upward trend in the lithium battery industry, advising investors to monitor raw material prices and policy developments closely [23]