Core Viewpoint - The recent investment by Lao Feng Xiang in Maybach Luxury Goods Asia Pacific is seen as a significant step towards high-end transformation in the gold and luxury goods sector, sparking discussions about the potential dilution of gold attributes and the strategic motivations behind the partnership [1][2][7]. Company Summary - Lao Feng Xiang plans to invest $24 million (approximately 170 million RMB) to acquire a 20% stake in Maybach Luxury Goods Asia Pacific, along with securing distribution rights in the Asia Pacific region [1][3]. - The partnership aims to enhance Lao Feng Xiang's brand image and expand its product offerings, while also facilitating its entry into international markets [3][5]. - The collaboration includes a brand agency agreement with a subsidiary, allowing Lao Feng Xiang to act as the exclusive distributor in Shanghai and a non-exclusive distributor in other Asia Pacific regions [3][4]. Industry Summary - The gold jewelry industry is currently facing profitability challenges due to high gold prices and increasing product homogeneity, leading to a decline in consumer demand [7][8]. - Lao Feng Xiang's revenue dropped by 16.52% to 33.356 billion RMB, with net profit decreasing by 13.07% to 1.22 billion RMB in the first half of 2025 [8]. - In contrast, competitors like Lao Pu Gold have seen significant growth, with a 251% increase in revenue to 12.354 billion RMB and a 285.8% rise in net profit to 2.268 billion RMB, indicating a potential shift towards high-end strategies in the industry [8][9]. - The luxury goods sector is entering a high-end development phase, with expectations that over 50% of luxury brands will introduce pure gold jewelry in the next two years, intensifying competition with Chinese gold jewelry brands [11].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Industry Association issued a warning letter regarding three gold jewelry companies in the Shui Bei area, which have been investigated for suspected illegal gambling activities disguised as gold trading [1] - The warning letter highlighted that these companies engaged in "non-physical gold betting" through online platforms, which constitutes illegal gambling, leading to criminal charges against key personnel [1] - The investigation revealed that some gold merchants in the Shui Bei area were involved in high-leverage betting transactions, significantly deviating from normal gold jewelry business practices and disrupting market order [1] Group 2 - International gold prices have surged, with the price per gram of gold jewelry in Shui Bei exceeding 900 yuan, prompting changes in consumer behavior [2] - The gold jewelry industry is facing risks from practices such as borrowing, consignment, and private betting, which have led to disputes [2] - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Industry Association is encouraging merchants to use legitimate hedging tools to manage price volatility risks and is promoting self-regulation and transaction model optimization within the industry [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The consumption during the National Day holiday showed steady recovery, with significant increases in travel and retail sales, indicating a positive trend for the retail sector [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and highlights high-quality companies in high-growth sectors, particularly in gold jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [6][33] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2288.03 points, with a weekly increase of 0.28%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.80% [5][12] - The professional chain sector saw the largest increase this week, while the watch and jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with an increase of 28.18% [14][17] Retail Insights - During the National Day holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, marking an increase of 1.23 billion trips and 108.19 billion yuan compared to the previous year [23][24] - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in sales during the holiday, with daily sales in related industries growing by 4.5% [23][25] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality gold jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Laopuhuang and Chaohongji [6][33] - Emphasize offline retail companies that adapt to trends, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][33] - Highlight domestic cosmetics brands with strong differentiation, recommending brands like Maogeping and Porcelain [6][34] - Suggest medical aesthetics companies with differentiated product lines, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][34] Company Performance Highlights - Laopuhuang reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 250.9%, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [38][39] - Chaohongji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 19.5% increase, with a net profit of 331 million yuan, up 44.3% [35] - Maogeping's revenue reached 1.769 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 30.8% increase, with a net profit of 186 million yuan, up 5.2% [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the e-commerce sector, particularly focusing on companies like Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo, as they are expected to benefit from the extended promotional periods and simplified shopping experiences during the Double 11 sales event [4][10][11]. Core Insights - The 2025 Double 11 e-commerce promotion has entered a phase of intensive launch, characterized by extended periods and simplified gameplay, with platforms like Douyin leading with a 57-day promotional cycle [7][10]. - Major e-commerce platforms are adopting a "direct discount" model, replacing complex rules with straightforward pricing strategies to enhance consumer experience and decision-making efficiency [10][11]. - The report highlights the importance of immediate retail as a focal point for competition during the Double 11 event, indicating a shift in consumer demand and shopping behavior [4][10]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Promotion Overview - The report outlines the promotional timelines for major platforms, with JD.com starting on October 9 and Douyin launching its campaign on September 16, marking the longest promotional period in the industry [7][10]. - Each platform has tailored its promotional strategies, such as Taobao's "official discount" and JD.com's cancellation of pre-sale phases, to streamline the shopping process for consumers [11][15]. Market Performance - During the period from October 6 to October 10, 2025, the retail index fell by 0.40%, ranking 20th among the Shenwan first-level industries, while the social service index decreased by 1.01%, ranking 24th [4][21]. - The report notes significant fluctuations in individual stock performances within the retail sector, with Alibaba experiencing a decline of 15.43% during this period [30][31]. Company Strategies - Taobao/Tmall has introduced a 30 billion yuan live-streaming red envelope initiative to attract consumers, while JD.com focuses on direct discounts across all categories, offering a minimum of 15% off [10][11]. - Douyin's strategy includes a combination of direct discounts and promotional coupons, aiming to stimulate consumer purchasing intentions [15][16]. - Xiaohongshu has implemented a unified discount policy of at least 15% across all categories, enhancing user experience and reducing merchant pressure [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on e-commerce companies that are actively investing in AI and immediate retail markets, as well as consumer brands that cater to emotional consumption needs [4][10].

10月11日，深圳市黄金珠宝首饰行业协会官方发布行业警示函，警示函称，深圳水贝三家 黄金珠宝公司被查处，已涉嫌构成开设赌场罪。 警示函提到，"近期我们依然遗憾地注意到司法机关在我市水贝片区相继查处了三家黄金珠 宝公司。经查，这些公司以经营黄金为名，实际通过线上平台开展'非实物黄金对赌'业务， 其行为已涉嫌构成开设赌场罪。目前，相关公司负责人及骨干成员已被依法采取刑事强制措 施，涉案人员将面临严重的法律后果。这些案件暴露出，个别企业为牟取非法利益，打着实 物黄金交易的幌子，诱导客户进行高杠杆的'买涨买跌'对赌交易，其业务实质已完全脱离黄 金珠宝行业的正常经营范围，严重扰乱市场秩序，玷污行业声誉。" 三、加强内部管理，履行主体责任。企业负责人及股东应承担起首要责任，完善内部风控体 系，加强对业务模式的法律审核与员工职业道德教育，从源头杜绝违规行为。 四、立即开展自查，主动规避风险。各企业应立即对自身经营业务进行全面审视，如存在任 何擦边球或违规嫌疑的业务，必须立即停止并彻底整改。 协会提醒，请各企业务必引以为戒，共同珍惜和维护水贝黄金珠宝行业的良好声誉与市场环 境，促 进本 行业持续、健康、稳定发展。 深圳市黄金 ...

10月11日，深圳市黄金珠宝首饰行业协会官方发布行业警示函，警示函称，深圳水贝三家黄金珠宝公司被查处，已涉嫌构成开设赌场罪。 警示函提到，"近期我们依然遗憾地注意到司法机关在我市水贝片区相继查处了三家黄金珠宝公司。经查，这些公司以经营黄金为名，实际通过线上平台 开展'非实物黄金对赌'业务，其行为已涉嫌构成开设赌场罪。目前，相关公司负责人及骨干成员已被依法采取刑事强制措施，涉案人员将面临严重的法律 后果。这些案件暴露出，个别企业为牟取非法利益，打着实物黄金交易的幌子，诱导客户进行高杠杆的'买涨买跌'对赌交易，其业务实质已完全脱离黄金 珠宝行业的正常经营范围，严重扰乱市场秩序，玷污行业声誉。" 为维护行业健康秩序，防范法律风险，协会特向全体会员单位及行业企业发出郑重警示： 一、严守法律底线，认清业务本质。必须严格遵守国家法律法规，任何以"黄金交易"为名，开展无实物交割、高杠杆、对赌性质的所谓"投资"业务，均属 违法行为，切勿心存侥幸，以身试法。 二、坚持合规经营，回归行业本源。各企业应专注于实物黄金珠宝的研发、生产、销售等实体业务，杜绝一切脱离实物的虚拟交易和投机活动，确保业务 真实、合规。 三、加强内部管理，履 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Association issued a warning letter regarding three gold jewelry companies suspected of operating illegal gambling activities under the guise of gold trading, highlighting the legal risks associated with the "pre-set price" trading model prevalent in the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The warning letter indicates that these companies were found to be conducting "non-physical gold betting" through online platforms, which has led to criminal charges of operating a casino [3]. - The pre-set price trading model allows investors to participate in high-leverage trading by paying a deposit as low as 2.4% of the actual gold price, significantly lower than the typical margin of over 10% in standard gold futures trading [6][7]. Group 2: Legal Implications - The classification of these trading activities as criminal offenses depends on the specific trading model used by the platforms, which could lead to different legal consequences such as illegal business operations, gambling offenses, or operating a casino [8][9]. - Legal experts suggest that the trading models can be categorized into three types: "positive hedging," "reverse hedging," and "fake orders," each carrying different legal implications [9][10]. Group 3: Market Risks - The ongoing rise in gold prices, with London gold currently at $4,017 per ounce and a year-to-date increase of over 50%, has exacerbated the risks associated with the pre-set price model, leading to potential payout crises and company bankruptcies [7][8]. - Some platforms have begun to open these high-risk trading activities to retail investors, using social media to create a false sense of trading activity and attracting inexperienced investors [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the legal risks associated with the "pre-order pricing" trading model in the gold jewelry industry, particularly in Shenzhen, where three companies have been investigated for allegedly operating illegal gambling activities under the guise of gold trading [3][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Warning - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Association issued a warning letter regarding the investigation of three gold jewelry companies in the Shui Bei area, which are suspected of operating illegal gambling activities [5]. - The warning emphasizes that these companies have been conducting "non-physical gold betting" businesses, which may constitute the crime of operating a casino [5]. Trading Model Risks - The "pre-order pricing" model allows investors to participate in high-leverage trading by paying a deposit as low as 2.4%, which has led to significant risks as gold prices rise [4][10]. - Many companies have faced liquidity crises or have disappeared entirely, raising concerns about the sustainability of this trading model [4][9]. Legal Implications - The classification of these trading activities as criminal offenses depends on the specific trading model used by the platforms, which could lead to charges of illegal business operations, gambling, or operating a casino [4][12]. - Legal experts indicate that the nature of the trading model—whether it involves "positive hedging," "reverse hedging," or "fake orders"—will determine the legal consequences [14][15]. Market Conditions - As gold prices continue to rise, with London gold reported at $4,017 per ounce and a year-to-date increase of over 50%, the risks associated with the pre-order pricing model are intensifying [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of Q3 performance, indicating a potential valuation shift in the new consumption sector [2] - The report highlights various sectors including paper manufacturing, exports, new tobacco, smart glasses, home furnishings, gold and jewelry, two-wheelers, pets, cross-border e-commerce, IP retail, and maternal and child products, each with specific insights and recommendations [2][3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Paper Manufacturing - Overseas pulp mills continue to suspend operations, maintaining strong pulp prices. The report suggests monitoring companies like Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., and Nine Dragons Paper for potential recovery in cultural paper prices [2][3] Exports - The report notes renewed tariff disputes and emphasizes the importance of export leaders with sufficient overseas capacity. Companies like Craft Home and Yongyi Holdings are highlighted for their global layout [2][3] New Tobacco - HILO's entry into the European market is noted, with expectations for significant growth in Italy. The report suggests monitoring companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong [2][3] Smart Glasses - Meta's new product is experiencing high demand, indicating a potential breakthrough for the smart glasses industry. Companies like KANAT and Mingyue Optical are recommended for investment [2][3] Home Furnishings - The report indicates a weakening market in October, with expectations for further deterioration in the housing market. Companies like Gujia and Midea are suggested for their stable cash flow [2][3] Gold and Jewelry - The report notes strong sales during the National Day holiday, with brands like Chow Tai Fook expected to raise prices. Companies like Lao Pu Gold and Chow Sang Sang are highlighted for their growth potential [2][3] Two-Wheelers - Taotao Industry is projected to see significant profit growth, driven by electric low-speed vehicles. Companies like Yadea and Aima Technology are recommended for their market share potential [2][3] Pets - The report highlights strong sales performance during the National Day holiday, with brands like Desire and Frigat showing significant growth. Companies like Petty and Zhongchong are suggested for their competitive advantages [2][3] Cross-Border E-commerce - The report discusses the Amazon fall promotion and the increasing dominance of top sellers. Companies like Anker Innovations and Jihong Holdings are recommended for their global strategies [2][3] IP Retail - MINISO's new store format and Pop Mart's successful Halloween blind box sales are noted as trends in the retail sector. Both companies are suggested for their innovative approaches [2][3] Maternal and Child Products - The report emphasizes the deepening channel transformation in the maternal and child industry, with companies like Kidswant and Aiyingshi leading the way [2][3]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen water bay gold market is facing significant operational issues, with over ten gold material merchants reportedly experiencing abnormal business conditions, leading to some being completely vacated [1] - The problems stem from a betting model that allows merchants to control large amounts of gold with minimal capital, raising concerns about legality and market integrity [1] - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Association has issued a warning regarding illegal gambling activities disguised as gold trading, highlighting the need for compliance and proper business practices [2] Group 1 - The gold merchants in Shenzhen are engaging in a betting model that allows customers to lock in large amounts of gold with a small deposit, which has led to significant operational risks [1] - The association's warning indicates that three gold jewelry companies have been investigated for operating illegal gambling activities under the guise of gold trading, with serious legal consequences for involved parties [2] - The association emphasizes the importance of adhering to legal standards and returning to core business practices focused on physical gold and jewelry [2] Group 2 - The international gold price has surged, with the price per gram in the water bay market exceeding 900 yuan, indicating a shift in consumer behavior amidst high gold prices [3] - The market is experiencing risks associated with borrowing, selling, and consignment practices, which have led to disputes and highlight the need for better risk management mechanisms [3] - The transformation of gold merchants from "traders" to "speculators" reflects a lack of modern risk control mechanisms in the market [3]