Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and the potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with expectations for three rate cuts increasing due to easing tensions in trade and geopolitical conflicts [5]. Macroeconomic Summary - The U.S. core PCE price index for May recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, surpassing the expected 2.6%, marking the highest level since February 2025 [2]. - The U.S. first-quarter real GDP annualized rate declined by 0.5%, worse than the expected decline of 0.2% [2]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 236,000, with the previous value revised to 246,000 [2]. - The market is observing a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with some officials open to cuts as early as July, while others suggest it may be premature [2]. Commodity Market Summary - The silver market is influenced by the performance of gold; if gold experiences a significant pullback, silver prices may also adjust, but if gold maintains a high-level fluctuation, silver could see upward momentum [4]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which has a limited negative impact on gold prices, as previous influences on gold were relatively minor [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July with a probability of 79.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is at 20.7% [4]. Investment Outlook - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market remains one of cautious adjustment, with expectations of rate cuts providing some support for gold and silver prices [5]. - The potential for significant price movements in precious metals is limited in the short term, with both gold and silver expected to remain in a state of fluctuation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The hype sentiment in the external market's previous trading of the oil and fat logic has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the time - node to confirm the planting area, and after the announcement, the weather conditions in the production area should be continuously monitored. The real - world pressure in the domestic market will continue to suppress the upward space of the near - month spot and the futures market, while the supply gap and weather - related speculation logic for the far - month contracts still exist. Therefore, reverse spreads and bottom - fishing for far - month contracts are suitable [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1857 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.3888 [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy - **Trader Inventory Management**: When the protein inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in meal prices, traders with long positions can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - **Feed Mill Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, feed mills with short positions can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - **Oil Mill Inventory Management**: When there are concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, oil mills with long positions can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their own situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The external market's previous oil - related trading logic has weakened, and the US soybean is at a key time for planting area confirmation. The domestic market has near - month pressure and far - month supply gap and weather speculation logic [4]. 3.4 Bullish Interpretation - No relevant content provided 3.5 Bearish Interpretation - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures market through warehouse receipt registration, which is expected to lead to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, the oil mill operating rate is rising, and the crushing volume has increased month - on - month, with some areas urging提货 [6]. - In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the third quarter is still relatively abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations [6]. - The inventory depletion of rapeseed meal is still slow, and the downstream has a low cost - performance ratio for adding rapeseed meal. The market's reaction to the news of the WTO establishing a panel to investigate Sino - Canadian tariff issues lacks elasticity, and the subsequent trend of rapeseed meal will mainly follow that of soybean meal, with its own market expected to be weak [6]. 3.6 Oil Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2987, up 4 (0.13%); soybean meal 05 is 2707, down 3 (- 0.11%); soybean meal 09 is 2946, up 10 (0.34%) [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2290, down 15 (- 0.65%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2321, down 9 (- 0.39%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2559, up 9 (0.35%) [10]. - **CBOT Yellow Soybean**: The closing price is 1016.25, unchanged (0%) [10]. - **Off - shore RMB**: The closing price is 7.1619, down 0.0128 (- 0.18%) [10]. 3.7 Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal Spread**: The spread of M01 - 05 is 280, up 7; M05 - 09 is - 239, down 13; M09 - 01 is - 41, up 6 [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spread of RM01 - 05 is - 31, down 6; RM05 - 09 is - 238, down 18; RM09 - 01 is 269, up 24 [11]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2840, unchanged; the basis is - 106, down 10. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2578, down 23; the basis is 28, up 15. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 262, unchanged; the futures spread is 387, up 1 [11]. 3.8 Oil Import Cost and Crushing Profit - **Import Cost**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4493.3329 yuan/ton, up 18.7774 yuan/ton and down 0.0643 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3738.92 yuan/ton, up 0.38 yuan/ton and down 138.33 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 700.3529 yuan/ton, up 18.7774 yuan/ton and up 108.2865 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 229.0205 yuan/ton, up 28.0974 yuan/ton and unchanged week - on - week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 87 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton and down 9 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 80 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton and down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - Glass demand remains weakly expected, with low prices but lack of drivers and no unplanned cold repair expectations. If low prices persist, attention should be paid to the increase in cold repair expectations and the sustainability of speculative sentiment. Although the glass valuation is relatively low, short - term fundamental drivers are limited [2]. - The expectation of oversupply in the soda ash market remains consistent, and there are still new production capacities planned in the long - term. The cost is decreasing. Currently, maintenance has a very weak impact on the futures market, and cost support is insufficient. Further decline in the futures price requires a decrease in the spot price, and the driving force comes from a new round of production cuts on the demand side or further inventory accumulation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 900 - 1100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 72.2%. The monthly price range forecast for soda ash is 1000 - 1250, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.12% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.0% [1]. Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short glass futures (FG2509) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry point of 1050, and sell call options (FG509 C1100) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40. For soda ash inventory management, short soda ash futures (SA2509) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry point of 1250, and sell call options (SA509 C1200) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40 [1]. Core Contradictions - Glass: Demand is weakly expected, prices are low but lack drivers, and there are no unplanned cold repair expectations. Soda ash: There is a consistent expectation of oversupply, new production capacities in the long - term, and cost reduction [2]. 利多 and 利空解读 - **Glass - Bullish factors**: Low prices may stimulate short - term speculative sentiment; if low prices persist, cold repair expectations may gradually increase; mid - stream inventory is relatively low. Bearish factors: There is still ignition expectation on the supply side, actual demand is weak, and overall social inventory is high [2]. - **Soda ash - Bullish factors**: Low prices may lead to a phased improvement in manufacturers' order - signing; high export levels relieve domestic oversupply pressure. Bearish factors: Photovoltaic production has continuous kiln - mouth blockages, with an expected weakening of rigid demand; social inventory is at an absolute historical high; cost support is insufficient [2]. Price and Spread Data - **Glass**: On June 27, 2025, the glass 05 contract price was 1121 (up 8 or 0.72% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1019 (up 3 or 0.3%), and the 01 contract was 1077 (up 4 or 0.37%). The 5 - 9 month spread was 102 (up 5), the 9 - 1 month spread was - 58 (down 1), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 44 (down 4). The 05 contract basis in Shahe was 3 (down 8.8), and in Hubei was - 53 (up 54). The 09 contract basis in Shahe was 105.2 (down 3.8), and in Hubei was - 16 (up 1) [3][5]. - **Soda ash**: On June 27, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract price was 1215 (up 7 or 0.58% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1196 (up 16 or 1.36%), and the 01 contract was 1192 (up 20 or 1.71%). The 5 - 9 month spread was 19 (down 9 or 32.14%), the 9 - 1 month spread was 4 (down 4 or 50%), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 23 (up 13 or - 36.11%). The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was 18 (down 16), and the Qinghai heavy - alkali basis was - 236 (down 16) [7]. Spot Price Data - **Glass**: The average spot price of glass in Shahe on June 27, 2025, was 1124.2 (down 0.8 from the previous day). The prices in different regions remained stable [6]. - **Soda ash**: The heavy - alkali and light - alkali spot prices in different regions remained stable on June 27, 2025 [8].

Core Insights - The 2-year government bond futures contract (2509) closed at +0.03% with a trading volume of 37,300 contracts as of June 27 [1][2] - The total trading volume for all contracts reached 38,400 contracts, an increase of 1,310 contracts from the previous day [1][3] - The top 20 positions showed a net short position with a difference of 18,880 contracts [1] Group 1: Trading Volume and Positions - The total trading volume for the 2-year government bond futures was 38,400 contracts, with a daily increase of 1,310 contracts [1][3] - The top 20 long positions totaled 88,100 contracts, an increase of 72 contracts from the previous day [1][4] - The top 20 short positions totaled 107,000 contracts, an increase of 48 contracts from the previous day [1][4] Group 2: Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Citic Futures (18,555 contracts), Ping An Futures (9,321 contracts), and Citic Jiantou (7,969 contracts) [1][3] - The top three short positions were held by Citic Futures (36,922 contracts), GF Futures (15,533 contracts), and Guotai Junan (11,576 contracts) [1][3] - The largest increase in long positions was seen in Yong'an Futures (2,301 contracts, +232), Guotai Junan (5,314 contracts, +181), and Huatai Futures (3,351 contracts, +157) [1][4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily for June 27, 2025, prepared by the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Tin Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,270 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 19.07%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 47.0% [2] Group 3: Tin Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure), it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) at an appropriate volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure), it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) at an appropriate volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2] Group 4: Market Factors Positive Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4] Negative Factors - Tariff policy reversals, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's expansion speed slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][6] Group 5: Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures is 267,270 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai tin continuous - one is 267,260 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai tin continuous - three is 266,880 yuan/ton (unchanged), the LME tin 3M is 33,140 US dollars/ton (up 680 US dollars, 2.09%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.12 (up 0.08, 1%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 265,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.53%), 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan, - 28.57%), 40% tin concentrate is 253,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.55%), 60% tin concentrate is 257,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.55%), 60A solder bar is 172,750 yuan/ton (up 1,000 yuan, 0.58%), 63A solder bar is 180,250 yuan/ton (up 1,000 yuan, 0.56%), and lead - free solder is 271,750 yuan/ton (up 1,500 yuan, 0.56%) [10][13] Group 6: Tin Import and Processing Import and Processing Data (Daily) - Tin import profit and loss is - 11,873.99 yuan/ton (up 843.25 yuan, - 6.63%), 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton (unchanged) [15] Group 7: Tin Inventory Inventory Data (Daily) - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,591 tons (up 119 tons, 1.84%), with 4,242 tons in Guangdong (up 125 tons, 3.04%) and 1,424 tons in Shanghai (down 6 tons, - 0.42%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,115 tons (down 40 tons, - 1.86%) [17]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the US PCE inflation data is expected to significantly impact market dynamics, particularly affecting the dollar and gold prices [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The US PCE price index for May is anticipated to rise by 2.3% year-on-year, up from 2.1% in April, while the core PCE is expected to increase by 2.6%, compared to 2.5% in April [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that if the PCE data, especially the core index, falls short of expectations, it could weaken the dollar and boost other major non-USD currencies [2][3]. Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently influenced by a complex macroeconomic environment, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Factors supporting potential gold price increases include sustained demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical issues, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing high levels of US debt and deficits [4][5]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) offers a low-cost investment option that closely tracks domestic gold prices, supporting T+0 trading and providing a long-term hedge against economic downturns [5]. Market Sentiment - Recent economic data from the US indicates weakening consumer confidence and spending, which may put short-term pressure on the economy, although the Federal Reserve remains cautious regarding inflation uncertainties [5]. - Despite a generally weak dollar index trend, the Fed's maintenance of high interest rates has temporarily mitigated the dollar's decline, while gold remains supported by increasing international trade risks [5].

Group 1 - The total demand for rebar steel this week is 2.1991 million tons, slightly up from 2.1919 million tons last week, but lower than the same period in previous years [1] - The total inventory of rebar in major cities across the country is recorded at 3.634 million tons, a decrease of 53,500 tons or 1.45% from the previous week; over the past month, the total inventory has decreased by 311,900 tons, a reduction of 7.90% [1] - Recent price adjustments for rebar in Yunnan steel mills show significant increases in price margins across various specifications, indicating a shift in pricing strategy [1] Group 2 - The current market conditions for steel show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, leading to a seasonal inventory build-up; short-term price fluctuations are expected [2] - The core issue in the market is the balance between iron water resilience and the accumulation of finished product inventory alongside reduced demand expectations [2] - Steel mills are experiencing profit compression, leading to a decrease in production rates; rebar demand is significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating a weak market [3] Group 3 - The production of major steel products is seasonally declining, with a noted decrease in electric furnace operating rates [3] - Recent macroeconomic information has been reflected in the market, shifting trading logic back to fundamental drivers, suggesting a potential recovery in undervalued steel prices [3] - Traders are advised to consider short positions during rebounds, while monitoring negative feedback expectations in the market [3]

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3318.25 with no change [2] - London Silver's latest price is 35.77 with no change [2] - London Platinum's latest price is 1304.00 with no change [2] - London Palladium's latest price is 1049.00, down 22.00 [2] - WTI Crude's latest price is 64.92 with no change [2] - LME Copper's latest price is 9761.00, up 35.50 [2] - The latest Dollar Index is 97.70 with no change [2] - The latest Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.17 with no change [2] - The latest British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.37 with no change [2] - The latest US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 145.27 with no change [2] - The latest US 10 - year TIPS is 2.01 with no change [2] Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 15561.77 with no change [3] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 1270.83, down 5.97 [3] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 953.39 with no change [3] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 14866.19, down 50.88 [3] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1378.88 with no change [3] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [3] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [3] Data Source - The data in the report is sourced from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while in the short - term, they are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation under the circumstances of eased geopolitical risks and non - sensitive trade tariff negotiations. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities. The key support for London gold is at 3300, and for London silver is in the 34.8 - 35 area [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market showed a pattern of strong silver and volatile gold. Bitcoin maintained an oscillation, the US dollar index fell below 98, crude oil oscillated, and the strong US stock market also suppressed the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The abnormal copper price drove the relatively strong trend of silver. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3341.6 per ounce, down 0.04%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $36.885 per ounce, up 1.22%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 775.28 yuan per gram, up 0.69%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8796 yuan per kilogram, up 1.7% [2]. - US economic data strengthened the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The final value of US GDP in 25Q1 was revised down to - 0.5%, and personal consumption showed the weakest performance since the pandemic. Although the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was lower than expected, the number of continued jobless claims jumped to the highest level since November 2021. The preliminary value of the month - on - month change in US durable goods orders in May was 16.4%, the largest increase since July 2014 [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 79.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 20.7%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 74.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 19.1%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 1.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 26.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 58.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 13.5% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained at 953.39 tons; the holdings of iShares Silver ETF decreased by 50.88 tons to 14866.19 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6 tons to 1270.8 tons daily, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1357.8 tons in the week ending June 20 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the main data to focus on is the US PCE data on Friday night. In terms of events, attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, progress in trade tariff negotiations, and changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. At 19:30 on Friday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will chair a meeting at the 24th BIS Annual Meeting [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Price Table**: The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - **Inventory and Holdings Table**: It includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, as well as the holdings of gold and silver ETFs [17][18]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary**: It presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread [24].

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年6月26日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 小幅缩量调整，等待新的驱动出现 市场回顾 今日股指震荡偏弱，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.35%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落195.89亿元。期 指均缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 国家发改委：将于今年7月份下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金，同时，将协调有关方面，坚持更加注重 持续性和均衡性原则，分领域制定落实到每个月、每一周的国补资金使用计划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全 年有序实施。 核心观点 今日股指小幅缩量回调，调整幅度不大，从盘面指标来看，市场情绪没有明显变化，因此我们认为今日股指 偏弱运行是基于连续多日放量上涨的阶段性调整。由于目前经济基本面仍处于弱复苏状态，信贷、通胀等数 据表现疲软，托底政策预期有所升温，对股指形成支撑。不过短期政策面预计难以出现新的增量信号，需要 等待7月政治局会议的政策指引。当前操作建议多头可持仓观望。 策略推荐 多头持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | ...