1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to have limited upward space due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and shortened downstream order cycles, despite the warm macro - atmosphere [1] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there is new capacity of plastics put into production recently, with a higher开工率 than PP, and the peak season of agricultural films is gradually ending [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 14th, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 25% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation during this New Year's Day was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years [1][4] - Due to the continuous escalation of riots in Iran, Trump threatening to interfere again, no further progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, Trump passing a sanctions bill on Russia authorizing tariffs on countries importing Russian oil, the crude oil price rebounded slightly [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production in mid - October, and the number of recent maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there are limited new downstream orders approaching the Spring Festival holiday [1] - The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in December all rose to the expansion range, and the Ministry of Finance has pre - issued the quotas for trade - in and "two important" projects in 2026, creating a warm macro - atmosphere that boosts market sentiment [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures - The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6545 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6607 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6590 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 0.76%. The position volume decreased by 9082 lots to 484356 lots [2] 3.2.2. Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions increased. The drawstring was reported at 6180 - 6680 yuan/ton [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 14th, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 25% [4] - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 560,000 tons week - on - week, the same as the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during this New Year's Day was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years [4] 3.4. Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $750 per ton week - on - week [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 出口退税取消，盘面价格回落 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-12 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 PVC周度数据 | | | | | | PVC主要周度数据汇总 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | | 主力价格（元/吨) | 4897 00 . | 4805 00 . | 1 91% . | | 中国产量(万吨) | 48 78 . | 48 39 . | 0 81% . | | | 近月价格 | 4574 00 . | 4492 00 . | 1 83% . | 产 量 | 电石法产量(万吨) | 34 34 . | 33 82 . | 1 56% . ...

Core Viewpoint - 聚石化学 has been fined for information disclosure violations, including inflating revenue by 157 million yuan while reducing profits by 1.66 million yuan, raising concerns about its financial practices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Violations and Penalties - The Guangdong Securities Regulatory Bureau has imposed a fine of 2.4 million yuan on 聚石化学 for engaging in false trade activities that inflated revenue and costs [1][4]. - Key executives, including the former chairman and general manager, have also been penalized, with fines totaling 430,000 yuan for their roles in the violations [1][4]. - The company has acknowledged the violations and has begun corrective actions, including adjustments to its financial reports [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - 聚石化学 has experienced a significant decline in profitability, with net profit growth rates of -47.67%, -46.29%, -35.95%, and -926.31% from 2021 to 2024, culminating in a loss of 236 million yuan in 2024 [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.963 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.17%, while net profit was 5.768 million yuan, indicating a return to profitability despite ongoing losses in non-recurring profits [5].

PVC 震荡偏强运行 宝城期货 陈栋 节后归来，受益于"反内卷"导向明确，供应收缩预期强化提振，国内 PVC 期货 2605 合约在构筑完 头肩底形态后，一举突破 60 日均线压制。期价摆脱自去年下半年以来所形成的中期下行趋势，一度回升 至 4910 元/吨的高点，短期反弹趋势开始朝着中期上涨格局发展。由于短期供需基本面矛盾尚未实质性缓 解，预计后市 PVC 期货大概率或维持震荡筑底走势，以夯实底部为主，较难出现快速拉升行情。 供应端收缩预期不断强化 根据 2026 年国内 PVC 新增产能投放规划来看，整体规模偏小，仅有嘉兴嘉化 30 万吨装置新试生产， 行业扩能周期或趋于尾声。不过短期来看，PVC 供应压力依然存在。据隆众资讯发布的数据显示，截止 2026 年 1 月 2 日当周，国内 PVC 生产企业产能利用率维持在 78.63%，周环比小幅 1.40%。其中，电石法 装置开工率维持在78.36%，周环比略微下降0.14%，同比小幅减少2.61%，乙烯法装置开工率维持在79.29%， 周环比小幅增加 5.00%，同比略微增加 0.30%。受此影响，当周国内 PVC 生产企业产量在 48.39 万吨，周 ...

来源：中国能源网 元旦节后归来，聚乙烯期货与现货市场均呈现波动上行的态势。期货市场，主力合约价格震荡攀升。1 月5日开盘虽出现高开低走，但随后两个交易日再度反弹；截至1月7日，聚乙烯主力合约收盘价格较节 前有显著提升。受期货上涨带动，现货市场价格也表现强势，华北、华东、华南等主要地区，线性、高 压、低压聚乙烯产品价格均有不同程度涨幅，涨幅区间在50-350元/吨。随着贸易商积极上调报价，市 场交投氛围较节前有所升温。 需求端，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。农膜领域受季节影响，订单持续下降，北方 地区因温度下降，终端施工放缓，棚膜生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续下跌，对原料采购意愿低迷；包装 膜订单提升有限，仅维持刚需补库节奏。且受制于成本压力，下游工厂对高价资源普遍持抵触情绪。 后市来看，短期内，聚乙烯市场将延续震荡格局。供应端，虽然部分装置检修，但检修时间较短，产量 减少有限，且新增产能的逐步释放仍将带来潜在压力；需求端，尽管元旦节后有一定补库需求，然而下 游工厂订单增长乏力，终端仍以刚需补库为主，未能为市场上行提供有效基本面支撑。综合来看，宏观 和地缘政治因素虽能在一定程度上提振市场情绪，但难以改 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, and the current demand may continue to be sluggish. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4875 - 4963. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [8][9][10]. - The positive factors include the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The output of calcium - carbide - based enterprises was 338,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and the output of ethylene - based enterprises was 145,710 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.51%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week with a slight increase in production scheduling [8]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 43.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin were 29.78%, 35.6%, 66.43%, and 80.75% respectively, with varying degrees of decline or flat compared to the previous period, all higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may continue to be sluggish [9]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium - carbide - based production was - 713.56 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 6.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 279.49 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 16.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2102.35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 6.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [9]. - **Other Aspects**: On January 6th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 249 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Factory inventory was 309,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. Social inventory was 525,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21%. The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The main position was net short, and short positions increased [10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, profits, and costs of different types of PVC (such as calcium - carbide - based and ethylene - based), as well as their changes compared to the previous period [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the PVC futures base price, reflecting the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [19]. - **Futures Price and Volume**: It presents the price and trading volume trends of the PVC main contract, as well as the changes in the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [22]. - **Spread Analysis**: The report analyzes the spread trends between different contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread [25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental - Calcium - Carbide - Based - **Lump Coke**: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of lump coke used in calcium - carbide production [28]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The report presents the mainstream price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It shows the price, production, and monthly production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: The report presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory trends of caustic soda. It also shows the cost - profit of Shandong chlor - alkali and the double - ton price difference [36][39]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - It presents the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production trends of calcium - carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC [40][42]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It shows the daily trading volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, paste resin, as well as the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin. It also presents the real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government new - issue special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year [45][47][52]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium - carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [56]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene - Based - It presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and ethylene dichloride, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC (Tianjin - Taiwan), and import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [58]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PP market shows a trend of oscillating upward, but the improvement in the supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is expected to be limited. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new capacity in the plastics industry and the end of the agricultural film peak season [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending January 2, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points month - on - month to 52.76%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.60 percentage points month - on - month to 43.14%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 6, with the addition of new maintenance units such as Lihezhixin, the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 22% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, due to the oversupply of crude oil, the US military's raid on Venezuela has caused geopolitical concerns, but the key oil facilities in the country are intact, and its output accounts for less than 1% of the global supply, so the crude oil price remains weak [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market [1] - In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose to the expansion range, boosting market sentiment, but the improvement in the PP supply - demand pattern is limited, and the downstream order cycle is shortened [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract increased in positions and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 6,345 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,439 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,423 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.09%. The open interest increased by 13,147 lots to 521,569 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in different regions showed mixed trends. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6,000 - 6,430 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking Supply - On January 6, with the addition of new maintenance units such as Lihezhixin, the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 22% [4] Demand - As of the week ending January 2, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points month - on - month to 52.76%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.60 percentage points month - on - month to 43.14%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] Inventory - On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons month - on - month to 660,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CIF China price of propylene remained flat month - on - month at $740 per ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for PVC [1] Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry has a complex situation with increasing supply, weak demand, high inventory, and a slow - recovering real estate market. Given these factors, it is advisable to wait and see [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%, being at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and downstream product orders are poor. Last week, export orders decreased slightly, with lower prices in the Indian market and limited demand. CFR India and CFR Southeast Asia decreased by $20/ton and $30/ton respectively. Social inventory continued to increase and is still high. The real estate market is in the adjustment stage with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, etc., and it will take time to improve. New production capacity has been added, and although there is an anti - "involution" sentiment, the current production decline is limited, and futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in volume and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 4,785 yuan/ton, a maximum of 4,935 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,919 yuan/ton, up 3.38%. The position increased by 68,221 lots to 1,026,198 lots [2] - On January 6, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,580 yuan/ton, and the V2605 contract futures closing price was 4,919 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 339 yuan/ton, weakening by 12 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, devices such as Jiangsu Xinpu and Ningbo Hanwha resumed production, and the PVC operating rate increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%, at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market is in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a decrease of 7.8%, and the sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%. The new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The construction area was 6,560.66 million square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The completion area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. As of the week of January 4, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 26.09% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of December 31, PVC social inventory increased by 1.45% week - on - week to 1.0766 million tons, 36.24% higher than the same period last year. Social inventory continued to increase and is still high [6]

1. Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is expected to have limited upside potential due to an unchanged supply - demand pattern, with downstream order cycles shortening and some spot prices remaining weak [3] - The spread between L and PP is expected to narrow due to new plastic production capacity coming online and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season [3] - Plastic and PP are expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastic's operating rate has risen to around 87%, at a neutral level; PP's operating rate remains around 82%, at a slightly below - neutral level [3][15] - As of the week of January 2nd, PE's downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15%, and PP's downstream operating rate dropped 0.48 percentage points to 52.76%, both at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years [3][21] - Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years, with significant pressure [3][28] - Crude oil prices are weak despite geopolitical concerns, as the key oil facilities in Venezuela are undamaged and its output accounts for less than 1% of global supply [3] - New production capacities have been put into operation recently, including ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton/year LDPE in Huizhou in October, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 700,000 - ton/year PE in November, and BASF's 500,000 - ton/year product in Guangdong recently; PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton/year PP was put into operation in mid - October [3] - The agricultural film season is ending, orders for products like plastic weaving are decreasing, and terminal construction is slowing down, especially in the north, leading to reduced demand [3] - Downstream enterprises have weak purchasing intentions, mainly for刚需, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling at lower prices [3] 3.2 Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic's operating rate has increased to around 87% due to the restart of some maintenance devices, at a neutral level; PP's operating rate remains around 82% with little change in maintenance devices, at a slightly below - neutral level [15] 3.3 Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of January 2nd, PE's downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15%, with agricultural film orders decreasing and packaging film orders increasing slightly, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [21] - As of the week of January 2nd, PP's downstream operating rate dropped 0.48 percentage points to 52.76%, with the plastic weaving operating rate for the main拉丝 product dropping 0.60 percentage points to 43.14%, and orders slightly lower than last year [21] 3.4 Plastic Basis - The spot price is stable, the futures price has risen, and the basis of the 05 contract has dropped to - 172 yuan/ton, at a low level [24] 3.5 Plastic and PP Inventory - The Wednesday's early petrochemical inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 630,000 tons, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively high level in recent years [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are expected to have limited upside and a weakening oscillation. In December, constrained by continuous supply and weak demand, polyolefin prices repeatedly sought the bottom. Although the downstream demand for PP increased and the BOPP operation rate rebounded, the decline in the PP main contract futures price was smaller than that of PE. Due to intensified geopolitical conflicts in Venezuela during the holiday, the crude oil price on the cost side may be affected. In Q1 2026, the production of polyolefins will slow down, and the expectation of supply reduction will drive the price of polyolefins to rebound. However, overall, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the upside space is still expected to be limited. It is expected that the PE main contract will oscillate weakly within a range, with attention to the support at 6400, and the PP main contract will oscillate weakly, with attention to the support at 6300. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - Plastics still face supply - demand contradictions and are expected to oscillate. The prices of various types of plastics, such as LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE, have decreased to varying degrees. The LLDPE South China basis and the 1 - 5 month spread have also changed. The cost of plastics is affected by factors such as the prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil, and the profit of oil - based and coal - based PE has different trends. The supply side shows a decrease in the production start - up rate and weekly output of polyethylene, while the demand side shows a decline in the start - up rates of downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film [8][11][22]. - PP is under great trend pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The price of the PP main contract has decreased, and the prices of related products have also changed. The cost of PP is affected by the prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil, and the profit of oil - based and coal - based PP has decreased. The supply side shows a decrease in the start - up rate of PP petrochemical enterprises and the weekly output of PP pellets, while the demand side shows different trends in the start - up rates of downstream industries such as plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and pipes [52][58][75]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastics 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On December 31st, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6472 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.67%. The average price of LDPE was 8400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67%; the average price of HDPE was 6862.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.71%; and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6518.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.30%. The LLDPE South China basis was 46.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 88.40%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 202 yuan/ton (- 134) [11]. 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 31, 2025, was - 202 yuan/ton, a decrease of 134 yuan/ton compared to November 28, 2025; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton; and the 9 - 1 month spread was 239 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different plastics in various regions have different trends and fluctuations. For example, in the Northeast region, the price of HDPE film remained unchanged, while in the North China region, the price of some types of plastics decreased [19]. - **Cost**: In December, WTI crude oil was reported at 57.41 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.07 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous month, and Brent crude oil was reported at 60.91 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.41 US dollars/barrel. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (- 50) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 331 yuan/ton compared to the previous month, and the profit of coal - based PE was - 207 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [28]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene in China this month was 82.64%, a decrease of 1.87 percentage points compared to the end of the previous month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 67.22 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84%. The weekly maintenance loss was 11.09 tons, an increase of 2.41 tons compared to the previous week [33]. - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have production plans for 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 550 tons [36]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' plastic production lines have been shut down, and the restart time of some production lines is undetermined [37]. - **Demand**: The overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 38.95%, a decrease of 10.09% compared to the end of the previous month; the start - up rate of PE packaging film was 48.41%, a decrease of 2.29% compared to the end of the previous month; and the start - up rate of PE pipes was 30.17%, a decrease of 1.66% compared to the end of the previous month [39]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 34.2%, and the difference from the annual average level is 1%. The difference between the current proportion of low - pressure drawing and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 5%, and the difference from the annual average level is 1% [43]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 47.51 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared to the end of the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 0.76% [45]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,353 lots, a decrease of 193 lots compared to the end of the previous month [48]. 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On December 31st, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6348 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton compared to the end of the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [52]. 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of PP - related products such as PP pellets, PP powder, and PE have different trends. For example, the price of PP pellets (T30S) remained unchanged on January 4, 2026, while the price of PE (7042) increased by 50 yuan/ton [56]. - **Basis**: On December 31st, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi.com was 6170 yuan/ton (- 3.04%). The PP basis was - 178 yuan/ton (- 132), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19) [58]. - **Cost**: Similar to plastics, the cost is affected by the prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil [67]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 632.49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.23 yuan/ton compared to the end of the previous month, and the profit of coal - based PP was - 582.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84 yuan/ton compared to the end of the previous month [75]. - **Supply**: This week, the start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.87%, a decrease of 1.27 percentage points compared to the end of the previous month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 79.37 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.99%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 6.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.88% [78]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises have been shut down, and the restart time of some production lines is undetermined [82]. - **Demand**: This week, the average start - up rate of downstream industries was 53.24% (- 0.33). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 43.74% (- 0.36%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 63.24% (+ 0.64%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 58.35% (- 0.51%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 39.74% (- 2.44%) [84]. - **Import and Export Profits**: This week, the PP import profit was - 330.70 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 83.74 US dollars/ton compared to the previous month, and the export profit was - 3.74 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.57 US dollars/ton compared to the previous month [88]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic PP inventory was 49.07 tons (- 7.99%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 8.04% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 5.34% month - on - month; and the port inventory decreased by 3.49% month - on - month. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises was 1004.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%, and the BOPP raw material inventory was 10.42 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.58% [90][94]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of PP warehouse receipts was 15,445 lots, a decrease of 421 lots compared to the end of the previous month [98].