核心市场走势如下： 日经225指数收涨0.13%，报50407.79点，日本东证指数收涨0.3%。 圣诞假期来临，美股债休市一日。洲际交易所旗下布伦特原油期货合约全天交易暂停。芝商所旗下贵金属、美油、外汇、股指期货合约交易全天 暂停。欧洲多数主要股市因圣诞假期休市，包括德国、法国、英国、意大利、西班牙等。此外，澳大利亚、韩国市场今日休市。隔夜，，成功开 启了历史上胜率极高的"圣诞行情"，标普新高。 12月25日，亚股指涨跌互现，日债收益率上行。人民币、日元走强，离岸人民币破7。贵金属市场在创新高后出现调整，黄金失守4500美元/盎 司，铂钯金属大幅回调，白银维持强势，于每盎司71美元上方震荡，布伦特原油小幅下跌，加密货币上涨。 日本2年期国债收益率上行至1.119%，日本5年期国债收益率上行1BP至1.5%。 离岸人民币兑美元升破7.0关口，为2024年9月底以来首次；日元反弹至155.8附近 现货黄金跌超0.1%回落至4479美元/盎司；现货白银维持在71.80美元/盎司；布伦特原油下跌0.05%至61.84美元/桶 比特币涨0.18%至87779.81，以太坊跌0.26%至2937.87。 离岸人民币汇率 ...

专题：离岸人民币升破7关口 为2024年以来首次！影响几何？ 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 每经编辑|段炼 12月25日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率升破7.0大关。 | 今开 | | 7.0332 | | 最高 | 7.0391 | 买入价 | | 6.9952 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 | | 7.0070 | | 最低 | 6.9928 | 卖出价 | | 6.9999 | | 分时 | 日K | | 更多い | | | | 6 高级工具 | | 今年以来，人民币兑美元整体震荡上扬态势。2024年12月31日收盘，离岸人民币兑美元汇率为7.3368。 有人年初存美元，如今倒亏钱 人民币的大幅升值，也使得美元存款成了"负收益"。杭州市民张凯（化名）手头上有1万多美元外汇，今年2月份一部分美元（8400美元）办了13个月的定 期存款，到期利率为2.8%，到期收益254.8美元。如果按目前的汇率计算，本金加利息相当于人民币60596元；而年初的时候，8400美元相当于61629元人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has led to negative returns for dollar deposits, impacting individuals and families with foreign currency holdings [2][3][6]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The offshore yuan has shown a significant upward trend against the US dollar, with the exchange rate reaching 7.3368 by December 31, 2024 [1]. - Since November 21, the yuan has been steadily rising from around 7.11, with expectations of breaking the 7 mark increasing [6]. - The yuan's appreciation is attributed to a combination of external pressures easing, internal economic resilience, and market expectations shifting [7]. Group 2: Impact on Individuals and Families - Individuals holding dollar deposits have experienced losses due to the yuan's appreciation, with one case showing a loss of 1,033 yuan on an 8,400 dollar deposit [2]. - Families with children studying abroad benefit from the yuan's strength, as it reduces the cost of tuition and living expenses in foreign currencies [3][8]. Group 3: Market Implications - The appreciation of the yuan is expected to positively influence the Chinese stock and bond markets, enhancing the attractiveness of yuan-denominated assets [8]. - Increased demand for yuan due to seasonal currency exchange needs from businesses is contributing to the currency's strength [7].

11月银行间外汇市场成交量整体下降，外汇市场日均成交量环比有所下行。中国外汇交易中心（以 下简称"交易中心"）最新数据显示，11月银行间外汇市场日均交易量为1914.58亿美元，同比下降 2.57%，环比下降6.69%。人民币外汇市场日均交易量为1462.33亿美元，同比下降5.11%。 同时，国际市场消息不断。美国政府达成协议结束"停摆"，国际地缘政治紧张局势逐步缓和，使美 元指数震荡收贬，人民币对美元汇率持续走升，连续升破7.12至7.08关口，再创年内新高。交易中心数 据显示，截至11月末，人民币对美元即期汇率（CNY）收于7.0794。11月末，CFETS人民币汇率指数收 于97.92，较上月升值0.32%。 美元指数震荡收贬 人民币汇率创年内新高 从国际市场看，11月，美元降息预期前低后高，美元指数震荡收贬。11月初，美国政府仍然"停 摆"，美联储降息态度谨慎，美元指数维持窄幅波动。月中，美国政府重启，但多位美联储官员认为仍 需保持紧缩以抑制通胀，打压美元降息预期，市场避险情绪有所升温，美元指数一度升破100点关口； 同期发布的美国9月非农新增就业超预期，但失业率小幅上行并创4年新高。下半月，美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar index and increased demand for currency exchange by enterprises as the year-end approaches, which may enhance the attractiveness of China's capital markets to foreign investors [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Movements - On December 25, the People's Bank of China announced that the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 7.0392, a significant increase of 79 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB's central parity rate had already risen by 52 basis points on December 24, marking the highest appreciation since September 30, 2024 [1]. - The offshore RMB hit a low of 7.0032 against the US dollar, while the onshore RMB also fell to 7.0133, indicating a strong upward trend towards the "7.0" threshold [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The RMB's strength in December is primarily driven by two factors: the weakening of the US dollar index, which fell below 100 due to market expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, and increased seasonal demand for currency exchange from enterprises as the year-end approaches [1][3]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB has also boosted market sentiment, further pushing up the RMB's value [1]. Group 3: Implications for Trade and Investment - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to increase foreign exchange gains for foreign investors, thereby enhancing confidence in the domestic capital market [3]. - For foreign trade enterprises, the recent RMB appreciation may reduce exchange profits for exporters while lowering costs for importers [3]. - Experts advise foreign trade companies to avoid betting on a one-sided RMB exchange rate trend and to utilize foreign exchange derivatives to manage exchange rate risks effectively [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Outlook and Future Expectations - The financial regulatory authorities have maintained a clear stance on stabilizing the exchange rate, emphasizing the importance of keeping the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [3][4]. - The market anticipates that the RMB may continue to approach the 7.0 threshold in the short term, with a possibility of temporarily breaking below it, but a sustained one-sided appreciation is not expected in the medium to long term [3][4].

美元/人民币(离) USDCNH 6.99867 高 7.00951 开 7.00730 6.995 买 6.99853 0.16% 7.002 振幅 代 20 -0.00870 -0.12% 日K 月K 分时 五日 車零 围K 不显示指标 ▼ 日线 美 7.16506-7.15330 7.07592 7.03134 6.99853 2025/11/12 2025/09/30 2025/12 12月25日，离岸人民币兑美元升破7.0大关，最高触及6.9985，为2024年9月以来首次。据央行官网12月24日消息，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四 季度例会于12月18日召开。会议认为，今年外汇市场供求基本平衡，外汇储备充足，人民币汇率双向浮动，在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。会议同时指 出，增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) maintains a strong position against the US dollar (USD), with a slight decline of 0.0447% and a trading range of 0.6698-0.6710, following a significant rise that broke the 0.67 mark, reaching a 14-month high since October 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept the policy interest rate at 3.6%, with a hawkish tone suggesting potential rate hikes in the future, which has increased market expectations for a rate increase in early 2025 [1]. - Domestic demand in Australia remains robust, with private consumption and investment data showing resilience, which offsets some external pressures and enhances confidence in the AUD [2]. - The RBA's cautious optimism regarding the economic outlook, without concerns of recession, further supports the strength of the AUD [2]. Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The USD index has declined over 9% this year, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and internal policy discrepancies, which have weakened the dollar and increased the relative attractiveness of the AUD [2]. - The AUD/USD exchange rate is currently in an upward channel, with key support at 0.6620 and resistance at 0.6707, indicating a solid bullish structure [2]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Upcoming key indicators include the Australian fourth-quarter CPI data at the end of January, which could reinforce rate hike expectations if inflation rises [3]. - Monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy direction and US economic performance is crucial, as these factors will directly impact the strength of the USD [3].

2025年12月25日，美元兑加元维持震荡回升态势，报1.3670，微跌0.0366%，波动区间为1.3665- 1.3675，今开与昨收均为1.3674。回顾近期走势，该货币对9月曾一度冲高至1.3944高位，随后伴随油价 波动与政策预期调整震荡回落，12月以来逐步企稳回升，当前已稳固站在1.3670关口上方，展现出较强 韧性。 央行政策路径分歧是驱动汇率走势的核心因素。加拿大央行12月10日宣布维持基准利率在2.25%不变， 行长蒂夫.麦克勒姆强调尽管美国关税对相关行业造成冲击，但加拿大经济总体仍具韧性，同时暗示未 来政策将依据通胀与经济数据动态调整。而美联储年内已完成三次降息，利率区间降至3.5%-3.75%，内 部对后续宽松节奏存在显著分歧，这种政策分化使得美元兑加元的利率驱动逻辑更趋复杂。 美元指数的结构性走弱与加元商品属性的弱化形成对冲，制约了美元兑加元的上涨空间。截至12月24 日，美元指数年内跌幅已超9%，主要受美联储降息、经济数据隐忧等因素拖累，一定程度上压制了美 元的上行势头。但与此同时，全球大宗商品价格疲软导致加元的商品货币支撑力减弱，两者相互作用 下，美元兑加元呈现震荡格局，未出现单边 ...

| | | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/25 | | | --- | 股 指 期 货 交 易 数 据 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.136 | 4.504 | 3.561 | 2.861 | 3.550 | 3.286 | 0.293 | 3.444 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.042 | 6.159 | 1.835 | - | 4.740 | 4.448 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国 ...

这波人民币升值，一方面依托国内经济基本面的韧性支撑，另一方面也受美元指数下行、年底结汇需求 释放等因素推动，进一步提振了市场对人民币走势的信心。 12月24日晚，人民币对美元汇率延续升值走势，离岸人民币盘中最高升值至7.0013，离"破7"仅一步之 遥。 年末的外汇市场，人民币对美元汇率走出强势行情。 12月23日，离岸人民币升破7.02关口，在岸人民币升破7.03关口，双双创下14个月新高，年内离岸、在 岸人民币对美元汇率累计升幅分别达4.4%和3.7%，波动率降至近十年低位。 对市场机构而言，面对汇率波动更应坚守"风险中性"理念。与其投机赌汇率涨跌，不如专注主业发展， 通过外汇套保等工具控制货币错配和汇率敞口风险。 12月以来超30家A股公司扎堆开展外汇套期保值业务，正是理性应对波动的例证。 对监管部门来说，需持续加强预期引导和宏观审慎管理，完善外汇市场工具供给，为企业规避汇率风险 提供更便利的支持，同时坚决抑制汇率大起大落。 目前人民币"破7"在即，市场也涌现不少乐观情绪，认为人民币后续将继续升值。不过在"破7"预期升温 的当下，也需清醒认知，汇率升值并非一蹴而就，更别期待"一口吃成胖子"。 人民币对美 ...