头部晶圆厂获增资，晶圆代工景气向上 强于大市( 维持) 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 杨钟 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060525080001 | | | yangzhong035@pingan.com.cn | | 陈福栋 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060524100001 | | | CHENFUDONG847@pingan.com.cn | | 徐勇 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060519090004 | | | XUYONG318@pingan.com.cn | | 徐碧云 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523070002 | | | XUBIYUN372@pingan.com.cn | | 郭冠君 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060524050003 | 行 业 报 告 行业点评 GUOGUANJUN625@pingan.com.cn 事项： 近日中芯国际公告，中芯南方注册资本由65亿美元增加至100.773亿美元，中 芯控股持有的中芯南方股权增长到41.561%。 平安观点： 电子 2025年12月30日 行 业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][16]. Core Insights - The company has achieved record sales revenue of $635.2 million in Q3 2025, aligning with guidance expectations, and a gross margin of 13.5%, which exceeds guidance [3]. - The production capacity utilization of the three 8-inch wafer fabs remains high, with the first 12-inch fab achieving a monthly capacity of 95,000 wafers, and the second fab ramping up to over 35,000 wafers [3]. - Price increases initiated in Q2 have positively impacted gross margins, with 80% of the improvement attributed to average selling price increases and 20% from a shift towards higher-margin products [3]. - The company anticipates Q4 2025 sales revenue to be approximately $650-660 million, with a gross margin of 12-14% [3]. - The "China for China" strategy is driving strong demand, with ongoing upgrades in production capacity and product mix, including the launch of 40nm products in 2026 [4]. - The acquisition of Huali Micro is progressing, which will enhance the company's 12-inch wafer foundry capacity and create synergies between the two companies' technology platforms [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 173 billion, 208 billion, and 238 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 5.8 billion, 11.4 billion, and 15.4 billion yuan [6][10]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 19.99% in 2025, 20.73% in 2026, and 14.23% in 2027 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.33 yuan in 2025, 0.65 yuan in 2026, and 0.89 yuan in 2027 [10][15].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that SMIC plans to acquire 49% of the shares of SMIC North for a total transaction price of 40.601 billion yuan, which will increase its ownership from 51% to 100%, making SMIC North a wholly-owned subsidiary [1][2] - The share issuance price is set at 74.20 yuan per share, with approximately 547 million shares to be issued, accounting for 6.40% of the total share capital post-issuance [1] - The transaction involves five shareholders, including the National Integrated Circuit Fund and Beijing Industrial Investment [1] Group 2 - SMIC North, previously a subsidiary, specializes in 12-inch integrated circuit wafer foundry services and has two production lines with a monthly capacity of 35,000 wafers each [3] - Financial performance of SMIC North shows significant revenue growth, with revenues of 11.576 billion yuan, 12.979 billion yuan, and 9.012 billion yuan from 2023 to August 2025, and net profits of 0.585 billion yuan, 1.682 billion yuan, and 1.544 billion yuan during the same period [3] - As of August 2023, the assessed value of 100% equity in SMIC North is 82.859 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 41.051 billion yuan, or 98.19% over its book net assets [3] Group 3 - In conjunction with the acquisition announcement, SMIC also revealed a capital increase plan, introducing new investors to SMIC South, which will receive a cash injection of 7.778 billion USD [3] - SMIC South is positioned as the core operational platform for advanced processes, providing 14nm FinFET and below technology [3] - The capital increase aims to reduce SMIC South's debt ratio and strengthen the overall financial structure of the group [3] Group 4 - The backdrop of these capital movements is the upward cycle of the domestic semiconductor market, with increasing local chip procurement [4] - SMIC's third-quarter capacity utilization rate reached 95.8%, nearing full production capacity, with 8-inch standard logic monthly production capacity increasing to 1.023 million pieces [4] - The strong demand has positively impacted SMIC's performance, with a significant net profit increase of 41.1% to 3.818 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, alongside an 18.2% revenue growth to 49.51 billion yuan [4]

证券日报网讯12月29日，民德电子（300656）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，晶圆代工厂广芯微电 子下游客户为功率半导体设计公司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant price increase across both mature and advanced processes, driven by structural supply-demand imbalances and rising costs, particularly influenced by the AI industry's growth [2][4][5]. Group 1: Price Increases - SMIC has officially notified downstream customers of a price increase of approximately 10% for 8-inch BCD process foundry services, with multiple chip companies confirming receipt of this notice [2]. - Taiwan's World Advanced Semiconductor has followed suit with a similar 10% price increase for the same process, indicating a clear industry-wide trend [2]. - TSMC plans to implement a series of price increases for advanced processes below 5nm starting January 2026, with an average increase of 3%-5% over four years [2]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The current price surge is attributed to a long-term structural imbalance between supply and demand, with explosive growth in demand, particularly from the AI sector, being a key driver [4]. - The demand for power management chips in AI servers has surged, leading to a critical shortage of related production capacity, particularly for BCD processes [4]. - TrendForce's research indicates that by the second half of 2025, driven by AI demand, wafer foundries' capacity utilization rates are expected to remain higher than previously anticipated, with some manufacturers performing better in Q4 than in Q3 [4]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - TSMC is actively reducing its 8-inch mature process capacity to focus on high-value advanced processes, planning to shut down some production lines by the end of 2027, which exacerbates the supply constraints in the mature process segment [5]. - Domestic foundries are operating at full capacity, with SMIC achieving a capacity utilization rate of 95.8% and a monthly output of over 1 million 8-inch wafers [5]. - Huahong Semiconductor's capacity utilization rate has reached 109.5%, indicating an overworked state, which provides a strong basis for price increases [5]. Group 4: Cost Pressures - The cost of raw materials, particularly metals like gold and copper, remains high, with leading silicon wafer companies raising prices by an average of 12% in late December, directly increasing wafer manufacturing costs [5]. - Rising energy and labor costs further compress profit margins for foundries, making price increases a necessary response to maintain profitability [5].

Macroeconomic Group - In November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 6.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, but a decline of 1.8 percentage points compared to October, marking two consecutive months of decline [4] - The manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year growth of 5.0% from January to November, down 2.7 percentage points from October [4] - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 13.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 5.5% in October, primarily due to the rise in PPI being concentrated upstream without transmission to downstream [4] Industry Overview - The upstream sector is experiencing differentiation, with poor performance in downstream industries and better results in the midstream [5] - Industries with higher year-on-year growth from January to November include non-ferrous metals, transportation equipment manufacturing, electronic equipment manufacturing, and automotive manufacturing [5] - Industries with lower year-on-year growth include coal, steel, furniture manufacturing, textile and apparel, paper, and pharmaceuticals [5] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Leading companies in lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, such as Hunan YN and Wanrun New Energy, have announced production halts, expected to reduce monthly output by approximately 20,000 to 55,000 tons, tightening market supply [12] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded over 50% since mid-year, currently exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton, constituting over 40% of the cost of lithium iron phosphate [12] - The supply-side expansion is constrained, with low willingness to expand production and increased quality thresholds limiting effective supply growth, while demand remains strong due to the high demand in new energy vehicles and energy storage [12] Consumer Group - The current operations of the company are still in an adjustment phase, with a high single-digit decline in all-channel sales for Q3 of FY2026 (September to November 2025) [14] - The management acknowledges pressure on the full-year net profit guidance, but deviations are manageable [14] - The core brand Nike has increased support for the Chinese market, helping the company clear old inventory and stabilize gross profit and cash flow [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the semiconductor foundry price increases have alleviated market concerns regarding the demand for mature processes in 2026, primarily due to improved competitive dynamics and rising raw material costs [5][14] - The automotive sector is experiencing continued pressure on retail sales, with the first batch of L3 autonomous vehicles from Deep Blue officially registered and on the road [6][30] - In the tools sector, TTI has terminated its HART business to strengthen mid-term profitability, while SBD's divestiture of its aerospace segment is expected to significantly reduce debt and optimize leverage ratios [31][43] Summary by Sections Electronics - Semiconductor foundries have raised some production capacities, leading to a 5.4% increase in the electronics index, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index [5][14] - Notable stock performances include SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, which rose by 9.2% and 5.5% respectively [5][14] Automotive - Retail sales in the passenger car market are under pressure, with a 19% year-on-year decline in retail volume for December 2025 compared to December 2024, although there was a 5% month-on-month increase [25][26] - The first L3 autonomous vehicles from Deep Blue were officially registered on December 26, 2025, marking a significant milestone in autonomous driving technology [30] Tools - TTI's termination of the HART business aims to enhance mid-term profitability, while SBD's sale of its aerospace business for $1.8 billion is expected to reduce debt significantly [41][43] - The divestiture is projected to create approximately $405 million to $415 million in revenue for the fiscal year 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin exceeding 10% [43] Investment Recommendations - In the electronics sector, companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor are expected to benefit from the price increases in foundry services [55] - In the automotive sector, attention is drawn to companies involved in L3 autonomous driving and Robotaxi, including Xiaoma Zhixing and Horizon Robotics [55] - In the tools sector, the report recommends companies such as Techtronic Industries and泉峰控股, with beneficiaries including Juxing Technology and Greebo [55]

全球最大专业晶圆代工企业台积电于周六发布消息称，该公司总部所在的新竹科学园区内，部分厂区在 地震后达到疏散启动标准。 台积电在一份简短声明中表示："我们将人员安全置于首位，正依据应急响应程序开展户外疏散及人员 清点工作。目前，所有厂区的安全生产系统均运行正常。" 责任编辑：丁文武 全球最大专业晶圆代工企业台积电于周六发布消息称，该公司总部所在的新竹科学园区内，部分厂区在 地震后达到疏散启动标准。 台积电在一份简短声明中表示："我们将人员安全置于首位，正依据应急响应程序开展户外疏散及人员 清点工作。目前，所有厂区的安全生产系统均运行正常。" 责任编辑：丁文武 ...

Core Insights - The global foundry 2.0 market is projected to reach $84.8 billion in Q3 2025, representing a 17% year-over-year growth driven by the demand for GPUs and other components due to the rise of artificial intelligence [2] Group 1: Market Performance - TSMC's sales in Q3 2025 are expected to grow by 41% year-over-year, primarily due to increased production of 3nm products for Apple and the mass production of 4/5nm products for AI accelerator clients like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom [3] - Other dedicated foundries are expected to see a modest sales growth of only 6% year-over-year in Q3 2025, while Chinese foundries benefit from domestic policy support, achieving a 12% sales increase [3] - Non-memory integrated circuit devices have shown a 4% year-over-year growth, indicating the end of the inventory adjustment cycle, with Texas Instruments (TI) experiencing a notable increase of 14% [3] Group 2: OSAT Performance - OSAT companies are maintaining strong performance, with sales in Q3 2025 increasing by 10% year-over-year, largely due to the robust demand for AI GPUs and AI ASICs, particularly from ASE Technology [4] - ASE Technology forecasts a 15% year-over-year growth in its foundry 2.0 business for the entire year of 2025, with the dedicated foundry market expected to grow by 26% [4] - The demand for AI GPUs and AI ASICs is anticipated to remain strong in the short term, although TSMC may face sales limitations in Q4 due to capacity constraints [7]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry has officially entered the "Wafer Foundry 2.0" era, characterized by deep integration of manufacturing, packaging, and testing, driven by the global AI boom, leading to higher quality growth [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - The global wafer foundry 2.0 market revenue is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching $84.8 billion, primarily driven by sustained demand for AI GPUs in front-end wafer manufacturing and back-end advanced packaging [1] - The overall wafer foundry 2.0 market revenue growth rate for 2025 is projected to be around 15%, with pure wafer foundry market expected to grow by 26% [8] Group 2: Company Performance - TSMC continues to lead the pure wafer foundry market with a remarkable 41% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by the ramp-up of 3nm chips for Apple's flagship smartphones and strong demand from AI accelerator customers like NVIDIA and AMD for 4/5nm processes [4] - Non-TSMC wafer foundries experienced a slowdown, achieving only 6% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, down from 11% in Q2 2025 [5] - Non-memory IDM companies have shown signs of recovery with a 4% year-on-year growth, indicating the end of the inventory destocking cycle, led by Texas Instruments with a 14% growth [5] Group 3: Advanced Packaging Trends - The OSAT industry saw a 10% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, up from 5% in the same period of 2024, with major contributions from ASE and SPIL, benefiting from TSMC's overflow orders to meet AI GPU and AI ASIC demands [5] - Advanced packaging capacity is expected to increase significantly by 100% in 2026, with AI GPUs and AI ASICs becoming the main growth drivers for OSAT companies [5] - TSMC is expected to focus on NVIDIA's AI GPU platforms in 2026, creating strategic opportunities for OSAT companies, while Broadcom and others must seek partnerships outside TSMC's ecosystem to ensure CoWoS-S capacity supply [8]