Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic butadiene market has seen minor adjustments. The short - term supply side shows no pressure, with some suppliers' prices remaining firm, but downstream procurement is still based on rigid demand. The domestic butadiene price is around 9400 - 9550 yuan/ton in some areas, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China is around 9200 yuan/ton [3]. - The ex - factory price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has been raised by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. Market quotations fluctuate greatly, but spot transactions are sluggish, especially after the late - session correction, with low terminal entry willingness. The price of private cis - butadiene rubber in the northern region is around 11600 - 11700 yuan/ton [3]. - For strategy operations, on the single - side, the macro - sentiment has weakened, and the br contract is consolidating. For arbitrage, after the spread widens again, consider going long BR and shorting RU or NR [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions of Butadiene and Cis - Butadiene Rubber - **Butadiene**: The closing price of the domestic BR2509.SHF is 11750 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; the settlement price is 11860 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. The trading volume is 80181, up 33.53%, and the open interest is 26557, down 0.49%. The international butadiene price has different changes, such as the FD Northwest Europe price down 0.62% to 800 dollars/ton and the FOB Europe price up 2.53% to 810 dollars/ton [3]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: The ex - factory price has increased, but the spot transaction is slow. The inventory of merchants has increased by 1.47% to 24150 tons, while the inventory of traders has decreased by 3.06% to 7290 tons. The production has decreased by 5.93% to 2.74 million tons [3]. Price Spreads - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months of butadiene rubber futures have significant changes, such as the "continuous one - continuous two" spread down 400% to - 15 yuan/ton and the "continuous two - continuous three" spread up 100% to 0 yuan/ton [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The BR - RU spread is - 4050 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the BR - NR spread is - 860 yuan/ton, down 2.38%. The spreads between different varieties also show certain fluctuations, like the butadiene - BR spread and the styrene - butadiene - BR spread [3]. Industry Chain Costs and Profits - **Butadiene**: The cost of carbon - four extraction is 7086.46 yuan/ton, down 1.19%, and the profit is 2313.54 yuan/ton, up 3.83%. The cost and profit of oxidative dehydrogenation remain unchanged [3]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: The cost is 12182 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 682 yuan/ton. The production rate has decreased by 5.93% [3].

截至8月6日，丁二烯港口库存14700吨，环比+4300吨；顺丁橡胶厂内库存为24150吨，较上期+350吨， 环比+1.5%；贸易商库存为7290吨，较上期-230吨，环比-3.1%。 【资讯】 隆众资讯8月13日报道：中国石油天然气股份有限公司吉林石化分公司二期20万吨/年丁二烯装置投产后 正常运行；同时14万吨/年丁二烯装置今日起陆续停车，重启时间待定。 丁二烯华东港口最新库存在20400吨左右，较上周期增加5700吨。周内进口船货继续到港，影响样本港 口库存处于上升状态，且有部分贸易量在售。8月进口船货到港或集中在月下旬。 7月，我国丁二烯产量为45.36万吨，环比+3%；我国顺丁橡胶产量为12.92万吨，环比+5.5%；我国半钢 胎产量5697万条，环比-1.1%，1-7月同比+7.8%；我国全钢胎产量为1275万条，环比+1%，1-7月同比 +5.1%。 截至8月7日，顺丁橡胶产业上、中游与下游开工率分化，其中，丁二烯行业开工率为69.8%，环 比-0.3%；高顺顺丁橡胶行业开工率为68.2%，环比-5.9%；半钢胎样本厂家开工率为69.7%，环 比-0.4%；全钢胎样本厂家开工率60.1%，环比 ...

央视新闻消息，8月12日，商务部公告2025年第39号公布对原产于加拿大、日本和印度的进口卤化丁基 橡胶反倾销调查的初步裁定。 根据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》（以下简称《反倾销条例》）的规定，2024年9月14日，商务部 （以下称调查机关）发布2024年第38号公告，决定对原产于加拿大、日本和印度的进口卤化丁基橡胶 （以下称被调查产品）进行反倾销立案调查。 调查机关对被调查产品是否存在倾销和倾销幅度、被调查产品是否对国内卤化丁基橡胶产业造成损害及 损害程度以及倾销与损害之间的因果关系进行了调查。根据调查结果和《反倾销条例》第二十四条的规 定，调查机关作出初步裁定（见附件）。现将有关事项公告如下： 一、终止对原产于印度的进口被调查产品的反倾销调查 经调查，调查期内自印度进口被调查产品数量占同期中国进口卤化丁基橡胶总量的比例低于3%。根据 《反倾销条例》第九条和第二十七条规定，调查机关认定该进口数量属可忽略不计，决定终止对原产于 印度的进口被调查产品的反倾销调查。 二、初步裁定 调查机关初步认定，原产于加拿大和日本的进口被调查产品存在倾销，国内卤化丁基橡胶产业受到实质 损害，而且倾销与实质损害之间存在因果关系。 ...

新京报讯 据商务部网站消息，根据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》（以下简称《反倾销条例》）的规 定，2024年9月14日，商务部（以下称调查机关）发布2024年第38号公告，决定对原产于加拿大、日本 和印度的进口卤化丁基橡胶（以下称被调查产品）进行反倾销立案调查。 调查机关对被调查产品是否存在倾销和倾销幅度、被调查产品是否对国内卤化丁基橡胶产业造成损害及 损害程度以及倾销与损害之间的因果关系进行了调查。根据调查结果和《反倾销条例》第二十四条的规 定，调查机关作出初步裁定（见附件）。现将有关事项公告如下： 一、终止对原产于印度的进口被调查产品的反倾销调查 经调查，调查期内自印度进口被调查产品数量占同期中国进口卤化丁基橡胶总量的比例低于3%。根据 《反倾销条例》第九条和第二十七条规定，调查机关认定该进口数量属可忽略不计，决定终止对原产于 印度的进口被调查产品的反倾销调查。 二、初步裁定 调查机关初步认定，原产于加拿大和日本的进口被调查产品存在倾销，国内卤化丁基橡胶产业受到实质 损害，而且倾销与实质损害之间存在因果关系。 三、征收保证金 根据《反倾销条例》第二十八条和第二十九条的规定，调查机关决定采用保证金形式实施临时 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce initiated anti-dumping investigations on imported canola seeds from Canada on September 9, 2024, and on imported halogenated butyl rubber from Canada and other countries on September 14, 2024 [1] - Preliminary evidence indicated that the investigated imported products were being dumped, causing substantial harm to the domestic industry, with a causal relationship between dumping and the harm identified [1] - On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced preliminary rulings, imposing temporary anti-dumping measures with a dumping margin of 75.8% for canola seeds from Canadian companies and a margin of 26.2%-40.5% for halogenated butyl rubber from Canadian companies [1]

每经AI快讯，8月12日，商务部发布公告称，调查机关初步认定，原产于加拿大和日本的进口被调查产 品存在倾销，国内卤化丁基橡胶产业受到实质损害，而且倾销与实质损害之间存在因果关系。根据《反 倾销条例》第二十八条和第二十九条的规定，调查机关决定采用保证金形式实施临时反倾销措施。自 2025年8月14日起，进口经营者在进口原产于加拿大和日本的卤化丁基橡胶时，应依据初裁决定所确定 的各公司的保证金比率向中华人民共和国海关提供相应的保证金。 ...

【发布单位】贸易救济局 【发布文号】商务部公告2025年第39号 【发文日期】2025年08月12日 根据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》（以下简称《反倾销条例》）的规定，2024年9月14日，商务部 （以下称调查机关）发布2024年第38号公告，决定对原产于加拿大、日本和印度的进口卤化丁基橡胶 （以下称被调查产品）进行反倾销立案调查。 调查机关对被调查产品是否存在倾销和倾销幅度、被调查产品是否对国内卤化丁基橡胶产业造成损害及 损害程度以及倾销与损害之间的因果关系进行了调查。根据调查结果和《反倾销条例》第二十四条的规 定，调查机关作出初步裁定（见附件）。现将有关事项公告如下： 一、终止对原产于印度的进口被调查产品的反倾销调查 经调查，调查期内自印度进口被调查产品数量占同期中国进口卤化丁基橡胶总量的比例低于3%。根据 《反倾销条例》第九条和第二十七条规定，调查机关认定该进口数量属可忽略不计，决定终止对原产于 印度的进口被调查产品的反倾销调查。 二、初步裁定 调查范围：原产于加拿大、日本的进口卤化丁基橡胶。 调查机关初步认定，原产于加拿大和日本的进口被调查产品存在倾销，国内卤化丁基橡胶产业受到实质 损害，而且倾销与实 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The global natural rubber产区 is in the tapping season. In the Yunnan产区, continuous rainfall has significantly hindered tapping operations, and the purchase price has remained high - fluctuating. In the Hainan产区, increased precipitation has restricted tapping in some areas, leading to a month - on - month decrease in raw material output. Supported by the rise in futures and spot markets, some processors are more eager to purchase raw materials. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao continues to decline. In terms of demand, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate fluctuated slightly last week. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,550 - 16,150 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,755 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,620 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 985 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,135 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 124,913 lots, up 10,616 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 55,758 lots, up 33,715 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 38,630 lots, down 4,018 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,519 lots, down 1,800 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 175,440 tons, down 840 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 42,840 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,700 yuan/ton, up 605 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,380 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 1,055 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,170 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,670 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 50 yuan/ton, down 173 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 61.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.45 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 48.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.45 days, up 0.81 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.05%, down 0.07 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.22%, down 0.51 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.68%, down 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.68%, down 0.26 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (August 10 - 16, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, southern Cambodia, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas is in a low - to - medium state, which has an increased impact on tapping operations. The red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which also has an increased impact on tapping operations [2]. 3.7 Other Information - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons or 1.89% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory is 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory is 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao's natural rubber sample decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.25 percentage points. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and 9.93 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Overview - Report Name: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Date: August 7, 2025 - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemical Team - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [7][17] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Not explicitly stated in the given content. The report mainly presents a comprehensive set of data on the synthetic rubber market, including price, volume, profit, and spread information for BR (butadiene rubber) and BD (butadiene), which can be used by investors to analyze market trends and make investment decisions. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) a. Futures Market - **主力合约收盘价**: On August 6, it was 11,505, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -270 compared to July 7 [3][13]. - **主力合约持仓量**: On August 6, it was 28,087, with a daily change of -2,345 and a weekly change of -11,603 [3][13]. - **主力合约成交量**: On August 6, it was 51,579, with a daily change of -2,366 and a weekly change of -48,813 [3][13]. - **仓单数量**: On August 6, it was 10,310 (13.62), with a daily change of -230 (-1) and a weekly change of 120 (-6) [3][13]. b. Basis and Spread - **顺丁基差**: On August 6, it was 82 (the value on July 7 was 450), with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 70 [3][13]. - **顺丁基差(两油)**: On August 6, it was -5 (the value on July 7 was 400), with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -330 [3][13]. - **丁苯基差**: On August 6, it was 495 (the value on July 7 was 700), with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 70 [3][13]. - **8 - 9月差**: On August 6, it was 85 (the value on July 7 was 70), with a daily change of 105 [3][13]. - **9 - 10月差**: On August 6, it was 5 (the value on July 7 was 40), with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -20 [3][13]. c. Spot Market - **山东市场价**: On August 6, it was 11,600, with no daily change and a weekly change of -200 [3][13]. - **传化市场价**: On August 6, it was 11,500, with no daily change and a weekly change of -300 [3][13]. - **齐鲁出厂价**: On August 6, it was 11,500, with no daily change and a weekly change of -600 [3][13]. - **CFR东北亚**: On August 6, it was 1,450, with no daily change and a weekly change of -25 [3][13]. - **CFR东南亚**: On August 6, it was 1,750, with no daily change and no weekly change [3][13]. d. Processing and Import - Export - **现货加工利润**: On August 6, it was -163 (the value on July 7 was 223), with a daily change of -102 and a weekly change of -328 [3][13]. - **盘面加工利润**: On August 6, it was -258 (the value on July 7 was -227), with a daily change of -112 and a weekly change of -398 [3][13]. - **进口利润**: On August 6, it was -82,267 (the value on July 7 was -81,486), with no daily change and a weekly change of 4,809 [3][13]. - **出口利润**: On August 6, it was -328 (the value on July 7 was -210), with no daily change and a weekly change of -20 [3][13]. BD (Butadiene) a. Price - **山东市场价**: On August 6, it was 9,375, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 125 [3][13]. - **江苏市场价**: On August 6, it was 9,350, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 50 [3][13]. - **扬子出厂价**: On August 6, it was 9,400, with a daily change of 200 and no weekly change [3][13]. - **CFR中国**: On August 6, it was 1,080, with no daily change and a weekly change of -10 [3][13]. b. Processing and Import - Export - **碳四抽提利润**: Data for August 6 was N/A (the value on July 7 was 1,765) [3][13]. - **丁烯氧化脱氢利润**: On August 6, it was 326 (the value on July 7 was -454), with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 50 [3][13]. - **进口利润**: On August 6, it was 433 (the value on July 7 was 106), with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 144 [3][13]. - **出口利润**: On August 6, it was -1,100 (the value on July 7 was -746), with a daily change of -87 and a weekly change of 18 [3][13]. c. Downstream Profits - **顺丁生产利润**: On August 6, it was -258 (the value on July 7 was -227), with a daily change of -112 and a weekly change of -398 [3][13]. - **丁苯生产利润**: On August 6, it was 550 (the value on July 7 was 638), with a daily change of -175 and a weekly change of -375 [3][13]. - **ABS生产利润**: On August 6, it was 225 (the value on July 7 was 396), with a daily change of -54 and a weekly change of -7 [3][13]. - **SBS生产利润(791 - H)**: On August 6, it was 960 (the value on July 7 was 805), with a daily change of -170 and a weekly change of 30 [3][13]. d. Spreads - **RU - BR**: On August 6, it was -12,592 (the value on July 7 was -16,306), with a daily change of 3,295 and a weekly change of 12,153 [3][13]. - **NR - BR**: On August 6, it was -15,767 (the value on July 7 was -18,236), with a daily change of 2,365 and a weekly change of 11,348 [3][13]. - **泰混 - 顺丁**: On August 6, it was 2,720 (the value on July 7 was 2,400), with no daily change and a weekly change of -30 [3][13]. - **3L - 丁苯**: On August 6, it was 2,650 (the value on July 7 was 2,750), with no daily change and a weekly change of -50 [3][13]. - **顺丁标品 - 非标价差**: On August 6, it was 250 (the value on July 7 was 400), with no daily change and no weekly change [3][13]. - **丁苯1502 - 1712**: On August 6, it was 1,150 (the value on July 7 was 1,100), with no daily change and a weekly change of 50 [3][13].

乖 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/8/7 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 7/7 | 7/30 | 8/4 | 8/5 | 8/6 | 日度变化 | 間度受化 | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11000 | 11775 | 11395 | 11515 | 11505 | -10 | -270 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 30276 | 39690 | 31806 | 30432 | 28087 | -2345 | -11603 | | | 居 | 主力合约成交量 | 133795 | 100392 | 55081 | 53945 | 51579 | -2366 | -48813 | | | | 仓単数量 | 8100 | 10190 | 10540 | 10540 | 10310 | -230 | 120 | | | | 虚实比 | 18.69 | 19.47 | 15.09 | 14.44 | 13.62 | ้า ...