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永安合成橡胶早报-20250630
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 04:13
乖 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/30 | | | 指标 | 5/28 | 6/20 | 6/25 | 6/26 | 6/27 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11150 | 11630 | 11225 | 11195 | 11275 | 80 | -355 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 43664 | 13196 | 7623 | 36383 | 33472 | -2911 | 20276 | | | STET | | | | | | 96846 | -11484 | -9593 | | | | 主力合约成交量 | 168727 | 106439 | 37814 | 108330 | | | | | | | 仓单数量 | 9900 | 6630 | 6630 | 6530 | 7700 | 1170 | 1070 | | | | 虚实比 | 22.05 | તે તે તે આ ગામમ | 5.75 | 27.86 ...
天然橡胶进口数据增长幅度较大 盘面或宽幅震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-26 07:10
华联期货分析称,前产区物候正常,尽管价格下跌,但割胶积极性仍然偏强而且有惯性。今年天然橡胶 进口数据增长幅度较大,前五月同比增超20%,但青岛干胶库存近月总体横盘为主,最新一期累库 1.7%。国内方面,国内房地产依然拖累橡胶需求,1至5月房地产开发投资同比跌幅加深;重卡销量在 以旧换新政策刺激下边际改善,5月同比涨6%左右,2025年1-5月,重卡累计销量同比增约1%。全钢胎 开工率反弹超越去年同期水平,半钢胎开工率保持高位,工厂和渠道轮胎成品库存均偏高。操作上,多 单持有,ru09支撑位13500附近。 6月26日,国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中,天然橡胶期货主力合约开盘报13750.00元/吨,今日盘中 高位震荡运行;截至发稿,天然橡胶主力最高触及13995.00元,下方探低13700.00元,涨幅达1.56%附 近。 西南期货表示,海外进口货源或呈现季节性减少,产区原料未来有增量预期,本周期轮胎样本企业产能 利用率表现基本稳定,胶价或继续呈现宽幅震荡。 申银万国期货指出,周三天胶止跌反弹,天然橡胶产胶区新胶供应受到降雨等气候影响,原料胶价格受 到一定支撑。青岛地区总库存近期波动,关注后续是否能够持续去库 ...
永安合成橡胶早报-20250626
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 04:08
jis 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/26 数据来源: Mysteel、Wind 免责 | | | 指标 | 5/26 | 6/18 | 6/23 | 6/24 | 6/25 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11545 | 11740 | 11575 | 11230 | 11225 | -5 | -515 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 52882 | 16777 | 10874 | 10659 | 7623 | -3036 | -9154 | | | ETE | 主力合约成交量 | 175284 | 104964 | 102647 | 110263 | 37814 | -72449 | -67150 | | | | 仓単数量 | 10420 | 12290 | 6630 | 6630 | 6630 | 0 | -5660 | | | | 虚实比 | 25.38 | 6.83 | 8.20 | 8.04 | 5.75 | -2 | ...
瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20250624
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 10:22
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to the recent geopolitical factors in the Middle East causing an increase in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the rise in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually increasing. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are generally increasing. The supply price may remain firm under the influence of cost factors, but the downstream end - users' resistance to high prices is obvious. It is expected that the production and sales pressure will be difficult to ease. - Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. Enterprises' production scheduling has gradually returned to the normal level. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to be basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is temporarily stable, and the resumption of work of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance has a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate. - With the cease - fire between Israel and Palestine and the decline in crude oil prices, the br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,700 - 11,300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,230 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 345 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract position was 10,317, a decrease of 557. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 180 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 800 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,750 yuan/ton, and that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,700 yuan/ton, and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,750 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 245 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 71.48 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.53 US dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan was 470 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.5 US dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 840 US dollars/ton, and the CFR China price of butadiene was 1,100 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. WTI crude oil was 68.51 US dollars/barrel [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.06%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 28,400 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 44.95%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 1.79 million tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate was 66.32%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 1,163 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.34 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 700 tons, and the trader's inventory increased by 610 tons to 6,820 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.29%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires was 65.48%, an increase of 4.24 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1,182 million pieces, a decrease of 126 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 5,415 million pieces, a decrease of 124 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.89 days, an increase of 0.15 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 47.42 days, an increase of 1.14 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. - In May 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared to April and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2].
瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20250623
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 11:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are generally increasing. Affected by cost factors, supply prices may remain firm, but downstream terminals clearly resist high prices. It is expected that the production and sales pressure will be difficult to ease. In the short - term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to be basically stable, and the resumption of work of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to a certain extent. The r2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,650 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 10,874, a decrease of 2,322; the synthetic rubber 7 - 8 spread is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber are 800 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies (Qilu, Daqing, Maoming, etc.) has decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 77.01 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.84 dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 646.25 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.62 dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 840 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,100 dollars/ton, an increase of 30 dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 73.84 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.76 dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 70.06%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 28,400 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 44.95%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.94 million tons, an increase of 1.79 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 66.32%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 587 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,163 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.34 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,950 tons, a decrease of 700 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,820 tons, an increase of 610 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,182,000 pieces, a decrease of 126,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,415,000 pieces, a decrease of 124,000 pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 41.89 days, an increase of 0.15 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.42 days, an increase of 1.14 days [2] Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]
日本瑞翁,再加码!
DT新材料· 2025-06-22 13:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements in bio-based materials, particularly focusing on the production of bio-based butadiene and isoprene by major Japanese companies like Zeon Corp, aiming for carbon neutrality and a circular economy [1][2]. Group 1: Company Initiatives - Zeon Corp announced plans to establish a research facility for producing butadiene and isoprene directly from plant materials, aligning with its STAGE30 mid-term business plan [1]. - In February, Zeon partnered with Yokohama Rubber to build a pilot plant for the efficient conversion of bioethanol to butadiene, expected to be operational by 2026 [1][2]. - Other companies, such as Michelin and Trinseo, are also making strides in bio-based butadiene production, with Michelin planning an industrial-scale demonstration plant in early 2024 [6][7]. Group 2: Technological Approaches - The pilot plant focuses on two main technological routes: 1. Ethanol catalytic conversion to butadiene using dual-function catalysts, facing challenges like catalyst coking and cost optimization [2]. 2. Direct synthesis from sugars or butanediol through enzyme catalysis or microbial metabolism, which currently faces issues with byproduct formation and high production costs [2]. Group 3: Market Applications - Butadiene is primarily used in synthetic rubber production, including styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) and nitrile rubber (NBR), with the largest application being in the production of styrene-butadiene-styrene (SBS) copolymers [3][4]. - The shift towards bio-based rubber is a key focus for many companies, with bio-based butadiene and isoprene being critical components in this transition [5]. Group 4: Domestic Developments - In China, research on bio-based butadiene and isoprene is less common, with notable advancements from Beijing University of Chemical Technology in developing bio-based polybutylene succinate rubber [10][11]. - A demonstration production line for bio-based polybutylene succinate rubber has been established, showcasing its potential in green tire materials and other applications [11][12].
兴业期货日度策略-20250620
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 11:42
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Neutral, expecting a sideways trend [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral, with a range - bound outlook [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Neutral, with a long - term upward potential for gold [1][4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel)**: Copper - Neutral, Aluminum - Slightly Bullish, Nickel - Neutral [4] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish, with a downward trend [4][6] - **Silicon Energy**: Neutral, with limited price fluctuations [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Neutral, with a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda Ash - Bearish, Glass - Bearish [8] - **Crude Oil**: Slightly Bullish [8][10] - **Methanol**: Bullish [10] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish [10] - **Cotton**: Slightly Bullish [10] - **Rubber**: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - A - share market shows cautious sentiment in the short - term, lacking upward momentum and continuing the sideways pattern. However, with increasing capital volume and clear policy support, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - The Treasury bond market is affected by overseas geopolitical issues to a limited extent. With the central bank's net injection in the open market, the bond market is running at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] - Precious metals are affected by geopolitical factors, with gold prices oscillating at a high level and a potential long - term upward movement. Silver is more volatile than gold [1][4] - Non - ferrous metals face supply - demand imbalances. Copper has supply constraints but weak demand; aluminum has supply concerns and low inventory support; nickel has an oversupply situation [4] - Carbonate lithium has an increasing supply and weak demand, with a downward price trend [4][6] - Silicon energy has sufficient supply and demand uncertainty, with limited price fluctuations [6] - Steel and ore markets have limited contradictions, and the pressure of raw material valuation adjustment has eased, with prices in a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - Coking coal and coke markets are bearish due to factors such as inventory accumulation and production reduction [8] - Soda ash has a high inventory and weak demand, while glass has a relatively loose supply and weak demand, both with a bearish outlook [8] - Crude oil prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation [8][10] - Methanol production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] - Polyolefins have stable production, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] - Cotton has a strengthening expectation of tight supply and demand, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] - Rubber has an increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited potential for a trend - reversal [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Index Futures - Market sentiment is cautious, with limited short - term upward momentum. A - shares continue the sideways pattern, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - level long - position layout [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Overseas geopolitical issues have a limited impact on the domestic bond market. The central bank's net injection in the open market supports the bond market at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, with a potential long - term upward movement. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold short - put options. Silver is more volatile than gold, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [1][4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Copper - Supply is tight, but demand is weak due to macro uncertainties. Prices are affected by market sentiment and funds, with a sideways trend [4] 3.4.2 Aluminum - Alumina has an oversupply pressure, but the downward drive may slow down.沪铝 has low inventory support, with a slightly bullish outlook [4] 3.4.3 Nickel - The supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward momentum weakens at low prices. It is recommended to hold short - option strategies [4] 3.5 Carbonate Lithium - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price trend is downward [4][6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - Supply is sufficient, and demand is uncertain. Price fluctuations are limited, and it is recommended to hold short - put options [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore 3.7.1 Rebar - Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing at a slower pace. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term, with a weak long - term trend. It is recommended to hold short - call options [6] 3.7.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand are both increasing, with a slight inventory reduction. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.7.3 Iron Ore - Supply and demand are expected to shift from tight to balanced and slightly loose. Prices are expected to follow steel prices and move in a narrow range. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal production is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, with a bearish outlook. Coke production is decreasing, and prices are under downward pressure [8] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass 3.9.1 Soda Ash - Supply is decreasing in the short - term, but inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.9.2 Glass - Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.10 Crude Oil - Prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to hold long - call options [8][10] 3.11 Methanol - Production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] 3.12 Polyolefins - Production is stable, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] 3.13 Cotton - Supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] 3.14 Rubber - Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing, and the potential for a trend - reversal is limited. Attention should be paid to the tire inventory cycle and demand improvement [10]
银河期货BR日报-20250620
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 01:04
BR 丁二烯橡胶相关:BR 主力 08 合约报收 11765 点,上涨+135 点或 +1.16%。截至前日 18 时,山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 11700 元/吨,山东民营顺 丁报收 11600 元/吨,华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 11600 元/吨,华南地区茂名石化 顺丁报收 11800 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 11900 元/吨。山东地区 丁二烯报收 9550-9600 元/吨。 RU/NR 天然橡胶相关:RU 主力 09 合约报收 14070 点,上涨+40 点或 +0.29%。截至前日 12 时,销地 WF 报收 13900-14000 元/吨,越南 3L 混合报收 14900-15000 元/吨。NR 主力 08 合约报收 12185 点,下跌-50 点或-0.41%;新加 坡 TF 主力 09 合约报收 163.4 点,下跌-1.1 点或-0.67%。截至前日 18 时,泰标 近港船货报收 1710-1750 美元/吨,泰混近港船货报收 1700-1750 美元/吨,人民 币混合胶现货报收 13850-13870 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 BR 日报 【银河期货】丁二烯橡胶每日 ...
印度对华氟橡胶发起第二次反倾销日落复审调查
news flash· 2025-06-19 03:24
Core Points - India has initiated a second sunset review investigation into anti-dumping duties on fluoroelastomers imported from China, following a request from Gujarat Fluorochemicals Limited [1] - The investigation period for dumping is set from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, while the injury investigation covers multiple periods from 2021 to 2024 [1] Group 1 - The products involved are classified under Indian customs codes 39045090, 39046990, 39049000, and 39046910 [1] - Interested parties must submit relevant information to the investigating authority within 30 days from the date of initiation via email [1] Group 2 - India previously initiated an anti-dumping investigation on fluoroelastomers from China on January 2, 2018, leading to a positive final ruling on December 27, 2018 [2] - The initial anti-dumping duties were set between $0.078 and $7.31 per kilogram, effective for 18 months until July 27, 2020, with an extension until October 27, 2020 [2] - A first sunset review was conducted in 2020, resulting in continued duties ranging from $1.04 to $8.86 per kilogram, effective until November 27, 2025 [2]
银河期货BR日报-20250618
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 02:17
BR 日报 【银河期货】丁二烯橡胶每日早盘观察(25-06-18) 【市场情况】 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关:BR 主力 08 合约报收 11470 点,上涨+145 点或 +1.28%。截至前日 18 时,山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 11600-11700 元/吨,山东 民营顺丁报收 11500 元/吨,华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 11500 元/吨,华南地区茂 名石化顺丁报收 11700 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 11800 元/吨。山 东地区丁二烯报收 9300-9500 元/吨。 RU/NR 天然橡胶相关:RU 主力 09 合约报收 14045 点,上涨+175 点或 +1.26%。截至前日 12 时,销地 WF 报收 13750-13850 元/吨,越南 3L 混合报收 14800-14900 元/吨。NR 主力 08 合约报收 12260 点,上涨+185 点或+1.53%;新 加坡 TF 主力 09 合约报收 162.3 点,上涨+0.8 点或+0.50%。截至前日 18 时,泰 标近港船货报收 1700-1750 美元/吨,泰混近港船货报收 1700-1730 美元/吨,人 民币混合 ...