Group 1: Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical raw materials index increased by 3.79%, and the chemical machinery index rose by 8.33% last week, while the chemical pharmaceuticals index decreased by 2.91% [1] - The pesticide and fertilizer index saw an increase of 4.32% [1] - In the oil sector, the oil processing index rose by 3.72%, the oil extraction index increased by 5.63%, and the oil trading index went up by 4.41% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices experienced slight fluctuations downward, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settling at $59.75 per barrel, down 2.02% from October 31 [1] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.63 per barrel, down 2.21% from October 31 [1] Group 3: Chemical Product Price Changes - The top five chemical products with the highest price increases included folic acid up 20%, nitric acid up 10.43%, sulfur up 9.95%, industrial-grade lithium carbonate up 9.51%, and petroleum coke up 7.23% [1] - The top five chemical products with the largest price decreases included liquid chlorine down 34%, butadiene down 7.69%, trichloroethylene down 6%, styrene-butadiene-styrene copolymer (SBS) down 5.9%, and carbon black down 5.53% [1] Group 4: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five chemical companies in the capital market with the highest stock price increases were Qing Shui Yuan up 47.78%, Zhenhua Co. up 37.19%, Fuluo Technology up 33.38%, Unified Co. up 32.93%, and Zhuoyue New Energy up 26.38% [2] - The bottom five chemical companies with the largest stock price decreases were Huidet Technology down 24.78%, Yashichuang Energy down 19.09%, Kaimete Gas down 18.64%, Weike Technology down 8.98%, and Yokogawa Precision down 8.86% [2]

Report Title - "Asphalt: Factory Inventory Continues to Accumulate, Sentiment is Weak" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows weak sentiment with factory inventory accumulation [1] - The trend strength of asphalt is neutral with a value of 0 [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2512, the yesterday's closing price was 3,034 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.59%, and the overnight closing price was 3,022 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.40%. For BU2601, the yesterday's closing price was 3,036 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.39%, and the overnight closing price was 3,022 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.46%. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts decreased [1] - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The refinery operating rate was 33.50%, down 0.36% from the previous period, and the refinery inventory rate was 28.45%, up 0.60% [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 12) was 16 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the 12 - 01 inter - period spread was - 2 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was - 300, down 40; the East China - South China spread was 40 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [1] Market Information - **Production**: In the week of 20251104 - 20251110, the domestic asphalt weekly total output was 52.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 tons (0.8%) and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 tons (0.2%). The cumulative output from January to November was 2715.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 310.7 tons (12.9%) [15] - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses was 68.8 tons, up 0.4% from November 6. The inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 116.7 tons, down 3.5% from November 6 [15]

Core Viewpoint - The price spread between gasoline and diesel in China has shown divergent trends since late October, with gasoline prices increasing while diesel prices have decreased [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of November 10, the gasoline price spread for major domestic and Shandong independent refineries was 1776 and 2018 CNY/ton, respectively, reflecting an increase of 51 and 10 CNY/ton since the beginning of the period [1] - The diesel price spread was recorded at 950 and 1118 CNY/ton, showing a decrease of 105 and 165 CNY/ton since the start of the period [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The overall trend in crude oil prices has been weak since late October, contributing to soft terminal demand for gasoline [1] - The logistics and transportation sector has supported diesel demand, leading to an increase in diesel wholesale prices [1] - Consequently, the gasoline wholesale price has experienced fluctuations downward, while diesel wholesale prices have shown an upward trend, resulting in an expanding gasoline price spread and a narrowing diesel price spread [1]

Core Insights - Delek US Holdings, Inc. reported third-quarter sales of $2.887 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $2.763 billion [1] - The company posted adjusted earnings of $7.13 per share, a significant improvement from a loss of $1.45 per share in the same quarter last year [1] Financial Performance - The strong performance in the third quarter is attributed to effective EOP (End of Period) contributions, which have exceeded previous guidance [2] - Delek US's free cash flow generation is expected to improve significantly in both the short and long term due to clarity on SREs (Strategic Resource Enhancements) [2] Market Position and Future Outlook - Delek US is strengthening its position in the Permian basin, with a raised guidance for processing plant contributions to $500 – $520 million [2] - The company is making progress on its midstream assets, with ongoing AGI (Asset Growth Initiatives) and increasing economic separation from DK [2] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Wells Fargo analyst Sam Margolin maintained an Overweight rating on Delek US and raised the price target from $43 to $53 [5] - Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng maintained a Sector Perform rating and increased the price target from $33 to $40 [5]

燃料油产业数据月报 研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年11月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 01 观点综述 | 月度观点综述 | | --- | | | 炼厂开工与产量方面，全球多个地区出现检修，随着炼厂开工下降，全球燃料油总产量也对应下滑。其 | | --- | --- | | 供需 | 中，科威特、日本、巴西等低硫主产地炼厂检修较多，导致全球低硫组分供应出现缺口。需求方面，船燃 | | | 市场表现平淡，而印度、中国的进料需求边际小幅回升。 | | 价格与价差 | 绝对价格方面，全球各地燃料油价格月内总体下跌走势，但低硫因存在供应缺口，价格相比高硫更加抗 | | | 跌，同时导致亚太低硫的裂解在月内出现明显的上行趋势。 | | | 高硫方面，10月内整个亚太区域现货成交环比9月更加活跃，但成交升贴水仍然维持在低位，或暗示现 | | | 货市场的供应相对宽松。同时，中东地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10, 2025, due to fluctuations in international oil prices [1]. Price Adjustment Details - The price adjustment is based on the average prices from the first ten working days of November compared to the last ten working days of October [1]. - The new maximum retail prices for gasoline and diesel across various provinces and municipalities are provided in a detailed table [2][4]. Market Regulation - Major oil companies, including PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, are required to ensure stable supply and adhere to national pricing policies [1]. - Local authorities are tasked with increasing market supervision and strictly enforcing compliance with national pricing regulations [1].

Core Points - The Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission announced a price adjustment for refined oil products, with increases in the prices of 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel by 0.1 yuan, 0.11 yuan, and 0.1 yuan per liter respectively [1] - The new maximum retail prices for 92 and 95 gasoline are set at 6.95 yuan and 7.44 yuan per liter, while 0 diesel is adjusted to 6.57 yuan per liter [1] - This adjustment marks the seventh price increase in 2025, with a total of 22 price adjustment windows this year, resulting in a net decrease of 620 yuan and 595 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel compared to the end of last year [4] Price Adjustment Details - The price adjustment is based on recent international oil price fluctuations and the National Development and Reform Commission's pricing information [1] - The next price adjustment window will open on November 24, 2025, with expectations of a potential decrease in prices due to current market conditions [5] - The three major oil companies (PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are required to ensure stable supply and compliance with national pricing policies [5] Market Analysis - Industry experts suggest that short-term oil prices are currently in a narrow fluctuation range, with signs of weakening, indicating potential downward pressure on prices [5] - The Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission has called for increased market supervision to enforce compliance with national pricing policies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic prices of gasoline and diesel will increase by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10, 2025, due to fluctuations in international oil prices [2]. Price Adjustment Summary - The adjustment is based on the average prices of the first ten working days of November compared to the last ten working days of October [2]. - The three major oil companies, namely PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, along with other oil processing enterprises, are required to ensure stable supply and adhere to national pricing policies [2]. - Local authorities are tasked with enhancing market supervision and cracking down on violations of national pricing policies [2]. Regional Price Details - The maximum retail prices for gasoline and diesel in various provinces and municipalities are specified, with prices ranging from 8390 yuan to 8825 yuan for gasoline and 7510 yuan to 7850 yuan for diesel [3]. - The prices listed include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax, and education fee surcharge [3]. - The gasoline and diesel prices conform to the sixth phase of mandatory national standards [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil: The spot market is weak. Although there is some recovery in supply from regions like Mexico and the Middle East, the expected early issuance of new crude oil quotas in 2026 may weaken the fuel - oil feedstock demand. The high - sulfur ship - fuel demand is stable, but the power - generation demand has completely subsided [4][22][25]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: There are short - term supply shortages due to the unplanned shutdown of the Al - Zour refinery and the upcoming maintenance of the Dangote refinery. In the medium term, there is still supply pressure. The demand has no specific drivers, and the power - generation economy is inferior to that of natural gas [31][34][39]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - High - sulfur fuel oil: Tok has been buying large quantities of high - sulfur fuel oil at low prices, causing the spot premium to decline continuously. The export logistics of high - sulfur fuel oil in the near term remains relatively stable after the sanctions. The export of high - sulfur fuel oil from Mexico has recovered, and that from the Middle East has increased with the decline in power - generation demand. The expected early issuance of new crude oil quotas in 2026 may lead to a weakening of the fuel - oil feedstock demand [4]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil has rebounded slightly due to supply tightening. There is a short - term supply gap in low - sulfur fuel oil because of the unplanned shutdown and subsequent maintenance of the Al - Zour refinery's residue desulfurization unit. The Dangote refinery's maintenance may affect low - sulfur production, and the fourth - quarter quota for low - sulfur fuel oil has been tightened. The ship - fuel demand is stable without specific drivers [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: The market is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias, and short - term observation is recommended. - Arbitrage: Take profit on the FU1 - 5 reverse spread. The space for widening the LU01 - FU01 spread is limited. - Options: Observe [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Supply from Russia: Sanctions on Russia continue, and its large - scale export ports and major refineries have been attacked by drones. In October, the export of high - sulfur fuel oil decreased significantly, but the export from the Black Sea port of Tuapse is expected to increase in November [8][9]. - Supply from Mexico: The refining capacity of the Olmeca refinery has changed frequently, and new secondary units of various refineries have been put into operation. The export of high - sulfur fuel oil in October recovered to make up for the supply gap in September [13][14]. - Supply from the Middle East: The export of high - sulfur fuel oil increased after the power - generation demand subsided. The United States continues to impose sanctions on Iran [19][21]. - Demand: The expected early issuance of crude oil quotas may weaken the high - sulfur feedstock demand. The high - sulfur ship - fuel demand is supported stably, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth in the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers. The high - sulfur power - generation demand has completely subsided [22][25][28]. 3.2.2 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Supply: The unplanned shutdown of the Al - Zour refinery in the Middle East has led to a short - term supply gap. The Dangote refinery in Nigeria is undergoing unit rotation maintenance, which may affect low - sulfur production. The trade ban between South Sudan and the UAE has changed the low - sulfur logistics pattern [31][34][37]. - Demand: There is no specific driver for demand. The ship - fuel demand is stable, and the power - generation economy is inferior to that of natural gas [39]. - China's low - sulfur market: The quota for bonded low - sulfur exports in the fourth quarter has been tightened. The production of domestic refineries has decreased slightly, and some refineries may be affected by sanctions [42][44]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Fuel oil spot: Data on the prices of Brent crude oil, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil, as well as their spreads with Brent crude oil, are presented [47][49][51]. - High - sulfur fuel oil spreads: Data on cross - regional and cross - period spreads of high - sulfur fuel oil are provided [54]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil spreads: Data on cross - regional and cross - variety spreads of low - sulfur fuel oil are provided [61]. - Natural gas - fuel oil ratio: The equal - calorific - value prices of various fuels and their changes are presented [64]. - Cross - regional freight: Data on cross - regional freight for fuel oil transportation are provided [67]. - Singapore bunker spreads: Data on bunker spreads in Singapore are provided [70]. - Fuel oil inventory structure: Data on fuel oil inventories in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, the US, and other regions are presented [73]. - Northwest European inventory structure: Data on gasoline, diesel, and refined - oil inventories in the ARA region are provided [81]. - US Gulf inventory structure: Data on gasoline, diesel, crude - oil, and Cushing crude - oil inventories in the US Gulf region are provided [84]. - Terminal sales structure: In September, the total bunker volume in Singapore decreased slightly. The high - sulfur bunker volume increased year - on - year, while the low - sulfur bunker volume decreased slightly [87][88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is weak and volatile [3]. Core Viewpoint - Crude oil prices have dropped from short - term highs, and asphalt has continued to decline due to poor fundamentals. The supply and demand of asphalt in China have both declined this week. The overall inventory is in a destocking pattern, and the cost is influenced by the fluctuation of crude oil prices. The overall trend of asphalt continues to follow the fluctuation of crude oil [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November, the production plan of domestic asphalt refineries decreased. The planned output of domestic asphalt refineries in November 2025 was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons. This week, both supply and demand of domestic asphalt declined. The decline in supply was mainly due to the active reduction of production capacity by some refineries and the suspension of production in some others [3]. - **Demand**: Affected by the capital situation and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China were sluggish. The demand in the north gradually stopped, and the downstream demand in the south increased and decreased intermittently. The overall demand declined. This week's total shipment volume was 445,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1%. It is expected that the industry's shipment volume will further decline next week [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, the factory and warehouse inventories in various regions of China showed a mixed trend of increase and decrease, and the overall inventory continued to be destocked. The destocking performance in East China was particularly prominent [3]. - **Cost**: At the beginning of this week, international oil prices rose slightly for three consecutive days due to multiple positive factors. In the later part of the week, oil prices fell for two consecutive days due to concerns about interest rate cuts, rising risk - aversion sentiment, and other factors. Overall, the oil price at the end of this week dropped compared with last week, and the average price this week also decreased compared with last week [3]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is weak and volatile. The trading strategy for unilateral trading is weak and volatile, and there is no arbitrage strategy [3]. 2. Price - The document provides the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China) from 2025/01 to 2025/11 [5]. 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: The document shows the asphalt crack spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coker feedstock from 2021 to 2025 [15]. - **Basis**: It presents the basis of asphalt in main regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2024/01 to 2025/10 [16]. 4. Supply - **Production Plan Expectation**: It shows the monthly production plan and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in North China, South China, Shandong, and East China in different years [19][23][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It provides the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [31][33][35][37]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt production in China from 2018 to 2025 [42]. 5. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: It provides the price, premium/discount, port inventory in China and Shandong of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [49][50]. 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [54][57]. - **Social Inventory**: It presents the social inventory in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [60]. 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volume of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [63]. - **Downstream开工率**: It provides the开工率 of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [66][67][69]. - **Modified Asphalt开工率**: It shows the开工率 of modified asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [72].