大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 研究员： 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/9/22 | 2025/9/19 | 2025/9/15 | 2025/8/25 | Δ日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 2784 | 2796 | 2799 | 2907 | -12 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 20.6 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 13.1 | -1.6 | | FU仓单(吨) | 127140 | 127140 | 101500 | 73710 | 0 | | LU主力 | 3382 | 3392 | 3375 | 3526 | -10 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 0.1 | | LU仓单 | 10020 | 10020 | 10020 | 11110 | 0 | | FU1-5 | 41 | 42 | 47 | 41 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Asphalt Daily" dated September 22, 2025, and it provides an analysis of the asphalt market including relevant data, market situations, and market outlooks [1]. 1. Related Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2511 (main contract) price dropped from 3421 to 3401, a decrease of 20 or -0.58% [2]. - BU2512 price decreased from 3374 to 3352, a drop of 22 or -0.65% [2]. - BU2601 price fell from 3353 to 3322, a decline of 31 or -0.92% [2]. - SC2510 price went down from 487.0 to 483.0, a decrease of 4.0 or -0.82% [2]. - Brent first - line price dropped from 66.76 to 66.46, a decrease of 0.3 or -0.45% [2]. - Main contract positions increased from 23.2 to 23.6 million lots, an increase of 0.4 or 1.83% [2]. - Main contract trading volume decreased from 18.0 to 16.7 million lots, a decrease of 1.2 or -6.92% [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 63680 to 59380 tons, a decrease of 4300 or -6.75% [2]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - BU12 - 01 spread increased from 21.00 to 30.00, an increase of 9.00 or 42.86% [2]. - BU11 - 12 spread increased from 47.00 to 49.00, an increase of 2.00 or 4.26% [2]. - Shandong - main contract basis increased from 276.00 to 288.00, an increase of 12.00 or 4.35% [2]. - East China - main contract basis increased from 126.00 to 148.00, an increase of 22.00 or 17.46% [2]. - South China - main contract basis increased from 116.00 to 138.00, an increase of 22.00 or 18.97% [2]. Industrial Chain Spot Prices - Shandong market price decreased from 3520 to 3510, a decrease of 10.00 or -0.28% [2]. - East China market price remained unchanged at 3500 [2]. - South China market price remained unchanged at 3490 [2]. - Shandong gasoline price decreased from 7483 to 7464, a decrease of 19.00 or -0.25% [2]. - Shandong diesel price increased from 6438 to 6453, an increase of 15.00 or 0.23% [2]. - Shandong petroleum coke price remained unchanged at 2860 [2]. - Diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at -6.5 [2]. - Exchange - rate mid - price decreased from 7.1128 to 7.1106, a decrease of 0.00 or -0.03% [2]. Spreads and Profits - Asphalt refinery profit increased from -26.81 to -16.44, an increase of 10.37 or 38.69% [2]. - Refined oil comprehensive profit increased from 350.43 to 367.40, an increase of 16.97 or 4.84% [2]. - BU - SC crack spread increased from -569.26 to -559.53, an increase of 9.73 or 1.71% [2]. - Gasoline spot - Brent spread increased from 949.74 to 950.03, an increase of 0.29 or 0.03% [2]. - Diesel spot - Brent spread increased from 714.97 to 745.34, an increase of 30.37 or 4.25% [2]. 2. Market Analysis Market Overview - On September 22, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3782 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - In North China, the main refineries of 70 and 90 asphalt had limited shipments, and the market price was stable [5]. - In Shandong, the demand was average, and there were many low - price resources. The price of the main refineries' asphalt might be lowered [5]. - In South China, the overall refinery inventory was controllable, supporting price stability [5]. - In East China, the main refineries had stable shipments under preferential policies, but there were still many low - price resources in Zhenjiang, and the market trading was tepid [5]. - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3630 - 3750 yuan/ton. Rainfall inhibited demand, and with the resumption of production of some refineries, the supply was sufficient. The spot price dropped to about 3470 yuan/ton, and the price of the main refineries might be loosened [5]. - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3650 - 3650 yuan/ton. The terminal demand was tepid, and the cost was average. The downstream users preferred low - price resources in Zhenjiang. In the short term, the asphalt price might show a weak trend [5]. - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. In Guangdong, high - speed projects were rushing to work, and some social warehouses increased shipments before the typhoon. In Guangxi, the project construction was stable, and the local refinery inventory was low. The typhoon weather had a slight impact on project construction and shipments, but the overall inventory pressure was not large, which was beneficial for price stability [6]. Market Outlook - Oil prices have fallen from high levels and are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, lacking effective support at the cost end [7]. - The weekly asphalt production has been increasing, and the industry chain is still destocking. The current demand level is basically the same as in previous years, and the peak - season expectation has been fulfilled [7]. - The refinery processing profit is acceptable, and the planned production of local refineries in October is expected to further increase. The continuous destocking of social inventory increases the supply, and the asphalt supply - demand tends to be loose, with relatively high valuation [7]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the crack spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 and 3450 [7]. 3. Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams such as the closing price of the BU main contract, the position of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of Shandong local - refinery gasoline and diesel, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [10][12][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Baoli International (300135) is seeking opportunities for transformation and upgrading while maintaining stable development in its traditional businesses of asphalt and general aviation [1] - The company emphasizes that any transformation will be conducted in compliance with state-owned enterprise regulations and securities supervision [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and the refineries reduced production. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - Demand: The current overall demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt开工率 are lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt开工率 is higher than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 3.00% month - on - month, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit decreased by 12.97% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Basis: On September 19th, the Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory are all in a state of continuous destocking [8]. - Expectation: It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3,399 - 3,443 [9]. - Influential factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: The refineries' recent production scheduling has reduced production, alleviating supply pressure. However, supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish [9]. - Cost: Crude oil has weakened, and cost support has weakened in the short term [9]. - Inventory: Inventory remains flat [9]. - Market trend: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures prices: Most contract prices showed a downward trend, such as the 01 - contract price decreased by 0.50% [16]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% month - on - month, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% month - on - month, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% month - on - month [16]. - Production and sales: The sample enterprise output decreased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise shipment volume increased by 31.10% month - on - month [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton on September 19th, and the 11 - contract basis was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Spread: Analyzed the spread trends of different contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [21][24][27][31]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - Analyzed the price trends of asphalt in different regions, including Shandong, East China, and South China [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: Analyzed the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt [36][39]. - Supply - side analysis: Analyzed multiple aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price, Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume [43][45][48]. - Inventory analysis: Analyzed exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio [63][67][70]. - Import and export analysis: Analyzed the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt [73][76][78]. - Demand - side analysis: Analyzed aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, machinery demand, etc.), asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [79][82][85]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Presented the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillation", with a short - term supply - demand contradiction not being prominent. In September, both supply and demand increased, and the long - term trend continues to follow crude oil fluctuations [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that in the asphalt market, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent during the traditional peak season, with both supply and demand increasing. Supply is affected by factors such as refinery production plans and raw material prices, demand shows regional differences, inventory is in a state of destocking, and cost is influenced by the complex situation in the crude oil market [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: For October's local refinery production schedule, two information companies' tracking data shows 1.604 million tons and 1.61 million tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and 9%. Although factors like weak crude oil prices and sufficient raw materials in September - October boost production enthusiasm, some refinery maintenance and intermittent production limit the growth rate [4]. - **Demand**: In North China and Shandong, some projects are rushing to work, and demand is gradually being released. In East and South China, demand is average, but sales have increased due to preferential policies. This week's shipment volume reached 455,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.6%, with significant growth in North and East China [4]. - **Inventory**: This week, both factory and social inventories of asphalt in China are in a state of destocking, especially in Shandong, mainly due to contract fulfillment and actual terminal demand [4]. - **Cost**: This week, the crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend of "rising first and then falling". Multiple factors led to a decline in the price center. By Friday, WTI crude oil closed at $62.68 per barrel, and Brent at $66.68 per barrel, with the weekly average price down by $1.2 and $0.8 respectively compared to last week [4]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The investment view is "oscillation". The trading strategy for single - side trading is "oscillation", and there is no arbitrage strategy. Key risks to watch include OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [4]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][10]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - The report shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread, asphalt - coker feedstock spread, and asphalt basis in main regions from 2021 to 2025 [15][17][19]. 3.4 Supply - **Scheduled Production**: It shows the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 08 [23]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 to 2025 [32][35][36]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [39]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: It presents the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. 3.6 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory volumes and rates in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [51][54]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory volumes in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [57]. 3.7 Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [60]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It presents the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][69].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced slight declines due to increased diesel inventories and upward adjustments in supply surplus pressure by organizations like IEA and EIA, despite favorable conditions such as crude oil inventory reductions and interest rate cuts [2][9]. - As of September 19, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were recorded at $66.04 and $62.40 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.42% and 0.46% respectively from the previous week [2][28]. - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a decline of 1.99% in the week ending September 19, 2025, while the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.44% [10][13]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $66.04 per barrel, down $0.95 (-1.42%), while WTI crude futures settled at $62.40 per barrel, down $0.29 (-0.46%) [2][28]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 372, a decrease of 2 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms increased by 1 to 131 [32]. U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.482 million barrels per day, a decrease of 13,000 barrels from the previous week [55]. U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing averaged 16.424 million barrels per day, down 394,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.30%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points [64][66]. U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 821 million barrels, a decrease of 8.781 million barrels (-1.06%) from the previous week [75]. Finished Oil Products - In North America, the average weekly prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $98.27, $84.52, and $87.49 per barrel respectively, with respective price differences from crude oil of $30.72, $16.97, and $19.93 [97].

Core Viewpoint - Ukraine's recent drone attacks on Russian energy facilities signify a strategic shift aimed at undermining Russia's economic capacity to sustain its military efforts, reflecting a response to the stagnation in peace negotiations [1][5][16] Group 1: Military Strategy - The attacks target critical energy infrastructure to reduce Russia's oil and gas export revenues, which are vital for funding military operations [5][16] - The Volgograd refinery's processing capacity of 13.7 million tons accounts for 5.1% of Russia's total processing capacity, linking these facilities directly to military potential [5][11] - Ukraine's choice of nighttime strikes and the absence of civilian casualties differentiate these actions from typical terrorist activities, indicating a focused military strategy [5][9] Group 2: Economic Impact - The strikes have already led to gasoline shortages in some Russian regions, affecting civilian life and potentially increasing domestic unrest [3][9] - While individual facilities may recover quickly, the cumulative effect of repeated attacks could strain Russia's resources, necessitating increased security measures and diverting military assets [9][16] - Concerns exist that these actions could destabilize international energy markets, impacting global oil prices and potentially affecting Ukraine's economic situation as an energy importer [11][14] Group 3: International Relations - Ukraine's actions may enhance its bargaining position in future negotiations by demonstrating its capability to strike deep into Russian territory [9][14] - The international community may view Ukraine's targeted strikes as a necessary measure against Russia's ongoing aggression, potentially solidifying Western support despite concerns over energy market stability [14][16] - The conflict over energy facilities illustrates the intertwining of economic warfare and psychological tactics in modern conflicts, with both sides leveraging their energy resources as strategic assets [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and trends in China's fuel oil industry, particularly focusing on production statistics and growth rates [1] - In May 2025, China's fuel oil production reached 3.47 million tons, representing an 8% year-on-year increase [1] - From January to May 2025, the cumulative fuel oil production in China was 17.889 million tons, showing a cumulative decline of 4.2% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - The article lists several publicly listed companies in the fuel oil sector, including Sinopec (600028), PetroChina (601857), and Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) among others [1] - A report by Zhiyan Consulting titled "2025-2031 China Fuel Oil Industry Market Panorama Research and Investment Outlook" is referenced, indicating ongoing research and analysis in the industry [1] - The data presented is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating a reliance on official statistics for industry insights [1]

Core Insights - In the first five months of 2025, the petroleum asphalt production in Yunnan Province reached 201,000 tons, representing a decline of 22.3% compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 95.3 percentage points lower than in 2024 and 29.3 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - In May 2025, the production of petroleum asphalt in Yunnan Province was 61,000 tons, showing a growth of 2.0% year-on-year, but the growth rate was 150.6 percentage points lower than in 2024 and 8.4 percentage points lower than the national average [2] Production Analysis - The cumulative production of petroleum asphalt in Yunnan Province from January to May 2025 accounted for 1.4% of the national total production of 14.815 million tons [1] - In May 2025, Yunnan's production represented 1.8% of the national total production of 3.347 million tons [2] Monthly Trends - The monthly production data indicates a significant slowdown in growth rates for both the cumulative and monthly production figures in 2025 compared to 2024 [1][2]

Group 1 - The core strategy of Karamay Petrochemical Company this year is to focus on "reducing oil and increasing specialty products," achieving a historical high of 37.50% in specialty product yield, exceeding the annual target by 3.40% as of September 16 [1] - The optimization of the first set of atmospheric distillation units has led to the introduction of a new process for recycling valuable transformer oil components from reduced top oil, significantly increasing the monthly output of transformer oil base oil TGB20 from 500 tons to 1200 tons [1] - The company has improved the yield of target products from 45% to 59% through comprehensive optimization of the second set of precision distillation units, enhancing production efficiency by utilizing effective component distribution [1] Group 2 - The marketing and transportation center of Karamay Petrochemical is enhancing market advantages by converting production increases into market benefits, ensuring seamless integration of production plans with market demand through close communication with other business units [2] - The company collaborates with planning, technology information, and production operation departments to provide production scheduling recommendations based on market needs, ensuring efficient management of loading, inspection, and dispatch processes [2]