--鑫融讯 2025 年 07 月 04 日 双融日报 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：79 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 79 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：光伏、能源金属、创新药 1、光伏主题：据上海有色网了解，为破除"内卷式"竞 争，近日国内头部光伏玻璃企业计划自 7 月开始集体减产 30％，此外部分玻璃企业堵口计划开始增多，预计后续国内 光伏玻璃供应量将快速下滑，国内供需失衡的状况将获得改 善，预计 7 月国内玻璃产量将下降至 45GW 左右。相关标的： 石英股份（603688）、爱旭股份（600732） c 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措施， 鉴于市场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁令的期限自本 决定生 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [5] Core Viewpoints - The focus is on investment opportunities in the stable and high-dividend electro-aluminum sector [2][9] - Short-term demand concerns are alleviated, with a greater emphasis on supply-side logic for mid-term investments [8][13] - Long-term stable and low-cost electricity supply is a critical constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - The supply-demand balance is expected to ensure stable profitability and dividends, making the electro-aluminum sector a true dividend asset [14] Summary by Sections Electro-Aluminum Sector - Concerns about downstream demand affecting short-term profitability are noted, but the report argues that short-term demand is not a worry [8][13] - Inventory levels in the electro-aluminum sector are decreasing, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [8][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable, low-cost electricity supply as a hard constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - Future profitability is expected to be stable, with major companies potentially achieving a dividend yield close to 6% [14] Steel Sector - The steel industry is entering a demand lull, with a focus on monitoring production reduction policies [15] - Rebar production has increased significantly, with a slight rise in consumption [15][16] - Total steel inventory has seen a slight increase week-on-week but a significant decrease year-on-year [22] - Steel prices have shown a slight decline, with the overall price index down by 0.49% [35][36] New Energy Metals - Lithium production in May 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 31.37% [39] - The production of new energy vehicles in China has also risen sharply, with a 33.02% increase in production [43] - Prices for lithium and nickel have shown an upward trend, indicating a robust market [48][49]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the outlook for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate is "oscillating" [5][8][9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Central Financial Conference re - emphasized the orderly elimination of backward production capacity, strengthening the expectation of supply contraction of silicon, leading to a significant rise in new energy metal prices. In the short - to - medium term, the price increase of industrial silicon and polysilicon has a positive impact on lithium carbonate. In the long term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestic self - priced products, but the long - term over - supply problem of lithium carbonate may limit the price increase [2] Group 3: Summary by Product Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Supply - side policy expectations are positive, and silicon prices are oscillating upwards [5] - **Information Analysis**: As of July 2, the spot price of industrial silicon has slightly rebounded. Domestic inventory decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. In May, the domestic monthly output was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. Exports in May were 55,652 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May was 92.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 388.0% [5] - **Main Logic**: Sudden production cuts by large northwest factories support prices. If the production cut scope expands, the supply - demand situation in July may improve. The southwest is in the wet season, and the resumption of production is slower than usual. The demand side is weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased this week. As the silicon price rebounds, supply may recover, and inventory may accumulate again [5] - **Outlook**: The fundamental over - supply situation of industrial silicon remains unchanged. The current price increase is driven by policy expectations, and the price is expected to oscillate [5][6] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The anti - involution policy has taken effect, and the polysilicon price has rebounded significantly [6] - **Information Analysis**: The average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock is 34,700 yuan/ton, a slight increase. In May, the export volume increased by 66.2% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 16.9% month - on - month. The cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to May increased by 150% year - on - year [6] - **Main Logic**: The polysilicon futures price hit the daily limit. Short - term production is low, and it is expected to rise to over 100,000 tons in June - July. The demand may weaken in the second half of the year after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation [8] - **Outlook**: The demand for polysilicon may weaken in the second half of the year, but the anti - involution policy may cause large fluctuations in supply. The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Driven by demand expectations and sentiment, the lithium price remains oscillating [9] - **Information Analysis**: On July 2, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.88%. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 350 yuan/ton. Zhongkuang Resources plans to upgrade its 25,000 - ton lithium salt production line [9] - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment is good, and demand production scheduling expectations are positive. Supply is increasing, and demand is expected to be good in July. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices after a rebound [9] - **Outlook**: Supply and demand remain in surplus, but the short - term reduction of warehouse receipts supports the price. The price is expected to oscillate [9]

2025 年 07 月 03 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 今日热点主题：光伏、能源金属、创新药 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 63 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 1、光伏主题：据上海有色网了解，为破除"内卷式"竞 争，近日国内头部光伏玻璃企业计划自 7 月开始集体减产 30％，此外部分玻璃企业堵口计划开始增多，预计后续国内 光伏玻璃供应量将快速下滑，国内供需失衡的状况将获得改 善，预计 7 月国内玻璃产量将下降至 45GW 左右。相关标的： 石英股份（603688）、爱旭股份（600732） 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措施， 鉴于市场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁令的期限自本 决定生效之日起再延长三个月，适用于刚果所有源自采矿的 钴 出 口 。 相 关 标 的 ： 华 友 钴 业 （ 603799 ） 、 天 齐 锂 业 （002466） 3、创新药主题：国家医保局、国家卫生健康委印发《支 持创新 ...

2025 年 07 月 02 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：74 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 74 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：光伏、能源金属、创新药 宏观经济意外下滑、地缘政治风险、流动性收紧超预期、行 业政策低于预期。 策 略 研 c 1、光伏主题：据上海有色网了解，为破除"内卷式"竞 争，近日国内头部光伏玻璃企业计划自 7 月开始集体减产 30％，此外部分玻璃企业堵口计划开始增多，预计后续国内 光伏玻璃供应量将快速下滑，国内供需失衡的状况将获得改 善，预计 7 月国内玻璃产量将下降至 45GW 左右。相关标的： 石英股份（603688）、爱旭股份（600732） 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管 ...

7月1日，现货黄金盘中站上3320美元/盎司，日内涨0.5%。拉长时间线来看，截至6月30日收盘，今年以 来现货黄金累计涨幅超25%。 东吴证券表示，2025年新兴市场黄金储备具备进一步提高空间。在逆全球化、经济发展不确定性较高的 情况下，新兴市场国家央行需要增加黄金储备来稳定本国汇率稳定、降低经济波动风险。随着印度、中 国等新兴国家持续增持黄金，我们预计各国央行将在未来数年维持800—1200吨/年的购金量级。 平安证券表示，下半年有色金属市场将持续分化，贵金属因美元信用体系弱化及避险需求推动，价格中 枢有望抬升，白银或进入补涨阶段。工业金属如铜铝受益于宽松货币环境及供需偏紧态势，价格弹性将 放大。能源金属虽处出清周期，但新能源汽车、光伏等领域需求韧性将托底，出清进程加速下关注底部 驱动。政策驱动下，终端景气度提升，金属需求弹性释放，供给受限逻辑持续，价格有望进一步上行。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 相关ETF方面，黄金ETF（518880）盘中表现活跃，截至午间收盘，该ETF涨0.68%，成交额突破12亿 元，暂居同标的产品第一，交投 ...

2025 年 07 月 01 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：86 分（过热） 最近一年大盘走势 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（过热） 今日热点主题：储存、能源金属、稳定币 1、储存主题：据《科创板日报》报道，继韩系两大存储 原厂先后放出 DDR4 停产时间，美光确定已向客户发出信件通 知 DDR4 将停产，预计未来 2~3 个季度陆续停止出货。Trend Force 数据显示，5 月 DDR4 单月涨幅 53%，创 2017 年以来最 大涨幅。相关标的：江波龙（ 301308 ）、兆易创新 （603586） 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措施， 鉴于市场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁令的期限自本 决定生效之日起再延长三个月，适用于刚果所有源自采矿的 钴 出 口 。 相 关 标 的 ： 华 友 钴 业 （ 60379 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 30 日 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：逼仓预期出现， 铜价波动或提升 | 图 | 1：内外盘金价 3 | | --- | --- | | 图 | 2：外盘金银铂钯价 ...

2025 年 06 月 30 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：66 分（较热） 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 66 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 1、储存主题：据《科创板日报》报道，继韩系两大存储 原厂先后放出 DDR4 停产时间，美光确定已向客户发出信件通 知 DDR4 将停产，预计未来 2~3 个季度陆续停止出货。Trend Force 数据显示，5 月 DDR4 单月涨幅 53%，创 2017 年以来最 大涨幅。相关标的：江波龙（ 301308 ）、兆易创新 （603586） 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措施， 鉴于市场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁令的期限自本 决定生效之日起再延长三个月，适用于刚果所有源自采矿的 钴 出 口 。 相 关 标 的 ： 华 友 钴 业 （ 603799 ） 、 天 齐 锂 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the A-share market outlook for July 2025, highlighting the balance between low-valued blue-chip stocks and reasonably valued growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector [1][3][28]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Trend**: The A-share market is expected to remain in a fluctuating trend for both the short term and July 2025, primarily due to ongoing fundamental pressures [2][27]. - **Driving Factors**: Recent market gains are attributed to the easing of risk events, improved policy expectations, and inflows from institutional investors [4][12]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire, is viewed as temporary, with ongoing uncertainties related to U.S.-China relations and tariff issues [5][6][25]. - **Economic Indicators**: May economic data shows a decline in export growth and negative profit growth for industrial enterprises, indicating potential underperformance in A-share mid-year reports [13][16]. - **Performance Expectations**: The A-share mid-year performance is anticipated to be weaker than previously expected, with significant pressure on corporate earnings [17][24]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Impact**: The financial support policies for consumption have a limited overall effect on profits but provide some benefits to specific consumption sectors [8][10]. - **Seasonal Trends**: Historical data indicates that July typically exhibits a balanced performance with no clear upward or downward trend, contrary to traditional beliefs [19][20]. - **Liquidity Factors**: The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, which could positively influence the A-share market despite potential external pressures [26][27]. - **Sector Preferences**: The preferred sectors for investment in July 2025 are expected to be growth and financial sectors, with historical trends supporting this allocation [28][29]. Recommendations for Investment - **Focus Areas**: Suggested sectors for investment include military, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, new energy, transportation, and large financial sectors, along with technology sub-sectors that are undervalued or have seen limited price increases [35]. - **High Growth Sub-sectors**: Sub-sectors with high expected profit growth include aviation, energy metals, military electronics, and software development [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the A-share market outlook for July 2025.