1、财政部发布2025年度立法工作安排，其中提到，研究制定、修订全国社会保障基金境内投资管理办 法、企业财务通则等。2、香港特区政府今日于宪报刊登《稳定币条例（生效日期）公告》，指定2025 年8月1日为《稳定币条例》开始实施的日期。3、美国法官当地时间5日阻止特朗普禁止哈佛国际学生入 境美国的禁令。4、截至午间收盘， 上证指数跌0.06%， 深证成指跌0.18%， 创业板指跌0.48%。 恒生 指数跌0.21%， 恒生科技指数跌0.59%。 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance is advancing the legislative work for 2025, focusing on various laws and regulations including the modification of the Asset Evaluation Law and the Budget Law [1] - The Ministry is also researching and revising the domestic investment management measures for the National Social Security Fund, along with other financial regulations [1] - The Ministry aims to actively cooperate with the legislative projects included in the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee's legislative plan for 2025 [1]

欧委会显然对当前欧盟经济面临的复杂挑战有着清醒认识。一是美国加征关税政策使得2025年的全球经 济贸易环境充满不确定性，而欧盟作为高度开放的经济体，深受外部环境变化的影响。报告认为，自 2024年以来，全球供应链持续受到地缘政治紧张局势、能源价格波动以及保护主义抬头的冲击，尤其是 美国贸易政策突变，对欧盟出口导向型经济构成了重大威胁。 二是地缘政治前景难测进一步加剧了经济复苏难度。俄乌冲突可能长期化以及由此引发的能源危机、难 民潮和武器流入风险，不仅威胁着欧盟内部的安全环境，也对经济信心和投资活动产生了极为负面的影 响，进一步削弱社会稳定与经济环境。 三是欧盟经济结构性问题不容忽视。德国作为欧元区经济引擎，近年来经济表现低迷，制造业和出口持 续疲软，今年经济增长率仍将为零。德国经济"熄火"对整个欧元区产生了连锁反应，而其他传统经济强 国今年经济增长预期同样低迷，如法国增长0.6%、意大利增长0.7%、奥地利萎缩0.3%。相比之下，部 分欧盟成员国经济表现则较为亮眼，如马耳他增长4.1%、丹麦增长3.6%、爱尔兰增长3.4%，凸显了欧 盟经济活力整体欠佳，而且区域分化明显。 近日，欧盟委员会发布了备受瞩目的20 ...

美国财政部拍卖四周期国债，得标利率4.170%（5月29日报4.215%），投标倍数3.26（前次为2.92）。 拍卖八周期国债，得标利率4.225%（5月29日报4.225%），投标倍数3.38（前次为3.07）。 ...

2025年5月30日，在经济发展的浪潮中，经济学家们犹如瞭望者，为中国经济指引方向。他们以独特视 角剖析经济现象，提出的观点深刻影响着政策制定与市场走向。这十位经济学家从宏观经济调控、产业 发展、区域经济等多个维度，为我们勾勒出中国经济未来发展的脉络，助力中国在复杂多变的全球经济 格局中稳健前行。 杜帅：知名经济学家。 中国人民大学、中国社会科学院、厦门大学、北京理工大学等多所高校特聘教授、MBA导师、名师库 名师。具备深厚且扎实的金融学学术背景。他认为，科技和医疗产业是未来经济发展的重要引擎，加大 对这些领域的投资，不仅能推动产业升级，还能创造新的经济增长点。他还强调金融创新要与实体经济 紧密结合，以金融的力量赋能实体经济发展。他的理念不仅影响了众多投资机构的决策，也为政府制定 产业政策和金融政策提供了参考。在金融助力乡村振兴方面，杜帅成果斐然。他出版《金融助力乡村振 兴》已成为财政部规划教材、"十四五"普通高等教育规划等必修课教材。该书深入剖析农村现状，提出 金融机构应加大对农村基建信贷支持，创新金融产品服务农村产业，引导资金回流并支持返乡创业等举 措。为乡村振兴战略实施提供了切实可行的路径，推动农村经济 ...

智通财经5月28日午间新闻精选 1、财政部数据显示，1-4月，国有企业营业总收入262755.0亿元，与上年持平。1-4月，国有企业利润总 额13491.4亿元，同比下降1.7%。 3、中欧半导体上下游企业座谈会5月27日在北京召开。会议强调，坚决反对单边主义和霸凌行径，努力 维护全球半导体供应链安全与稳定。 4、市场早盘窄幅震荡，三大指数涨跌不一。沪深两市半日成交额6524亿，较上个交易日放量419亿。截 至收盘，沪指涨0.07%，深成指跌0.04%，创业板指涨0.02%。 5、港股午间收盘，恒生指数跌0.55%，恒生科技指数跌0.38%。 6、新西兰央行将政策利率从3.50%下调至3.25%，为连续第六次降息，符合市场预期。 2、国家数据局26日召开座谈会强调，国家数据局正在研究制定培育全国一体化数据市场的政策文件， 要结合数据市场发展的新特点，培育数据市场生态，汇聚各方力量加快数据市场建设。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury is reducing the issuance of short-term Treasury bills due to the ongoing debt ceiling impasse, with a planned issuance of $75 billion for four-week bills, down $10 billion from the previous issuance [1] - The Treasury's reduction in short-term debt issuance marks the beginning of a prolonged government financing tightening, with money market funds reducing their allocation to U.S. Treasuries by $278 billion since the beginning of the year [1] - The allocation of money market funds to U.S. Treasuries has decreased from nearly 41% at the end of 2024 to below 38%, while repo agreements have surged by $231 billion, increasing their share from 36% to nearly 39% [1] Group 2 - Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that without raising or suspending the debt ceiling before August, the Treasury could exhaust all means to avoid hitting the borrowing limit [2] - As of May 21, the Treasury had only $67 billion left from "extraordinary measures" to maintain government operations, a decrease from approximately $82 billion on May 14, indicating that about 82% of the available funds have been utilized [2] - The Treasury has net repaid approximately $183 billion in short-term debt supply as of May 29, and further delays in the debt ceiling resolution will necessitate more supply reductions [2] Group 3 - The current debt ceiling stalemate has disrupted the usual rhythm of debt issuance, which typically sees an increase after the tax season [3] - Congressional Republicans are working on a legislative plan to raise the debt ceiling by about $5 trillion, primarily aimed at extending and expanding tax cuts implemented in 2017 [3] - Treasury Secretary Yellen emphasized the importance of raising or suspending the debt ceiling before the mid-July recess to maintain the U.S. government's creditworthiness [3] Group 4 - The shift in fund flows within money market funds is a direct response to the political deadlock in Washington, indicating market participants' reactions to the ongoing situation [4]

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, China's fiscal revenue showed positive growth driven by improved tax revenue and a low base effect, supporting increased expenditure [1][3] Revenue Summary - In April, the general public budget revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, a rise of 1.6 percentage points from March, primarily due to a recovery in tax revenue [1][3] - Tax revenue in April grew by 1.9%, a significant improvement from the previous month's decline of 2.2%, while non-tax revenue growth slowed to 1.7% [4][5] - Among the four major tax categories, corporate income tax, value-added tax, and consumption tax saw notable declines in growth rates compared to the previous month, while personal income tax surged by 9.0% due to a low base effect [4][5] Expenditure Summary - In April, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly higher than March's growth rate, indicating a continued focus on stable growth [1][5] - Cumulative expenditure from January to April reached 31.5% of the annual budget, surpassing the average of the past five years [6] - Infrastructure-related expenditures grew by 2.2% in April, with significant increases in urban and rural community affairs and transportation spending [7] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue in April rose by 8.1%, driven by positive growth in land transfer fees, which increased from a decline of 16.5% in March to 4.3% [8] - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.7% year-on-year in April, significantly higher than March's 27.9%, primarily due to the issuance of new special bonds and a low base effect [9]

Core Viewpoint - The UK government is facing increasing challenges in achieving fiscal stability and addressing the financial gaps left by the previous Conservative administration, as evidenced by rising public borrowing and expenditure [1][2]. Group 1: Public Borrowing and Fiscal Deficit - In April, UK public borrowing reached £20.2 billion, exceeding last year's level by £1 billion and surpassing market expectations of £18 billion [1]. - For the fiscal year ending March 2023, public borrowing totaled £148.3 billion, which was £11 billion more than initially projected by the Office for Budget Responsibility [2]. - As of April, the UK government debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 95.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Government Expenditure - In April, government spending amounted to £93.9 billion, an increase of £4.2 billion compared to the same month last year, primarily driven by rising public service sector wages [1][3]. - The UK government is under pressure to manage rising costs in public services, including salaries for teachers and healthcare workers, which are contributing to increased expenditure [1][3]. Group 3: Revenue Generation and Taxation - The government has raised the employer's National Insurance tax rate and increased VAT on private school fees, with overall tax burden projected to rise to 36.4% of GDP in 2024-25 and further to 38.3% by 2027-28, marking a historical high [4]. - The government is exploring options to cut tax exemptions on capital market investment income, although this is expected to have limited impact on improving fiscal conditions [4]. Group 4: Economic Outlook and Market Impact - The UK government faces a difficult choice between reducing public services or increasing taxes to meet fiscal discipline requirements, with market expectations leaning towards tax increases and spending cuts [4]. - The anticipated challenges in achieving fiscal targets have already affected capital markets, with rising yields on 20-year and 30-year UK government bonds observed [5].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 核心观点 收入端承压之下 （ 1-4 月税收收入同比 -2.1% ，卖地收入同比 -11.4% ）， 今年财政或较往年更依赖债务端；通过观察政府债发行，可以得到若干财政政策线 索： 线索 1 ： 年内财政要保持力度，或大概率需要增量债务。 考虑到 7.2% 的广义财政支出累计增速已明显高于全年预算安排增速 （我们测算约 3.4%~5.1% ，详见 《财政三个关切思辨：规模、缺口、乘数》 ）， 政府债累计净融资同比也已明显"超量" （截至 5 月 20 日，累计同比已增加 6.2-2.6=3.6 万亿，而全年预计同比增 量为 2.2 万亿） ， 如年内收入端不出现明显改善 （或是大概率情形：当前物价低位运行、卖地收入尚未企稳，而关税影响尚未体现）， 财政要保持力度，或需要 增量债务 。 线索 2 ： 二季度非赤字债赶进度，或反映 财政边际倾斜投资 。 线索 3 ： 今年增量债务的抓手或在中央， 预算内国债加码、预算外准财政补资本金可期 。 报告摘要 一、 发债快慢之间的财政线 ...