英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 9 月 4 日 【A 股大势研判】 周三晨报提醒，高位股的回落在一定程度上影响到短期的市场情绪，短期板 块和个股的分化有所加剧，这将在短时间内影响整个市场的节奏。从短时间周期 来看，市场或维持高位进行窄幅的震荡休整，操作上，适当的防御也是必不可少 的。市场走势如我们预期，周三沪指及深成指全天走低，延续周二以来的调整， 而创业板则保持相对强势。 整体看，短期市场的调整，是多方面原因的结果：一是部分板块和个股大幅 上涨后，技术上存在调整需求；二是部分机构和个人投资者从高估值板块获利了 结，转向低估值滞涨板块，这一调仓换股过程也会引发市场波动；三是前期三大 指数持续刷新年内新高，且两市成交动辄在 2.8 万亿左右的天量水平，后续需要 资金面的持续净流入来支撑，也相对困难，不进则退。 从短时间周期来看，市场或维持高位进行震荡休整，耐心等待市场企稳的信 号。而从长周期来看，周线、月线级别 K 线走势仍保持着多头排列，股指在技术 形态上仍保持着上行趋势，因此，投资者不必过于畏惧于短期的市场调整，短暂 的技术性回踩，有助于市场中期继续向上突破。 操作上，适当 ...

世界黄金协会正计划明年推出数字黄金，创建一种新的黄金交易、结算和抵押方式，将彻底改变规模高达9000亿美元的伦敦实物黄金市场的生态。 黄金继续刷新历史新高，国际现货黄金连涨七个交易日，凌晨一度逼近3580美元/盎司，尾盘回落，日线以上影大阳线收报3559.13美元/盎司，纽约黄金继续 刷新历史新高，稳定在3600美元每盎司以上。国际现货白银突破41美元/盎司，最高41.462美元每盎司，再次创2011年以来新高，日线以上影大阳线报41.22 美元/盎司。 当前行情 世界黄金协会首席执行官泰达维(David Tait)在接受采访时表示，这种新形式将首次实现在黄金生态系统内以数字方式流转黄金，将其用作抵押品。 美国总统特朗普当地时间周三暗示，如果美国法院系统最终裁定其全球关税政策非法，美国与欧盟、日本和韩国等经济体达成的贸易协议将被废除。 他表示，这些协议让美国"有机会再次变得难以置信的富裕"，"如果我们没有赢得那场诉讼，我们的国家将遭受巨大损失。所有这些协议都已达成，但我想 我们将不得不废除它们。" 昨日美联储褐皮书显示，近几周美国大部分地区的经济活动"几乎没有或没有变化"；经济活动基本持平，企业和家庭感受到关 ...

每日市场观察 2025 年 9 月 4 日 【今日关注】 周三沪指与深成指早盘小幅高开后稍作整理即逐级震荡回落；创业板指 则横向整理。截至收盘，沪指跌 1.16%，深成指跌 0.65%，创业板指数 涨 0.95%。板块方面，四代半导体、光伏设备、游戏、贵金属、生物制 品等涨幅居前；航天航空、船舶制造、小金属、证券、通信服务、多元 金融等调整。两市涨少跌多，其中上涨股票 788 只，下跌股票数量 439 5 只；沪深两市总成交金额超 2.36 万亿，环比明显萎缩。 本轮强势行情如果从 4 月 7 日开始计算，沪指最大涨幅已接近 28%，创 业板指数涨幅最高超过 69%，科创板指数涨幅最高也超过了 55%。可以 说短线涨幅巨大，部分资金有获利了结意愿。另外，沪指近期高点 388 8.60 点临近 1849-5178 点之间黄金分割位，股指在这个位置进行整理从 技术上讲也十分正常。当下股指的强势整理一方面使部分资金获利离场， 一方面吸引之前踏空的资金流入，有利于市场均衡发展、行稳致远。技 术上看，虽然小时级别技术指标处于低位，但日线指标仍然较高，投资 者可待市场企稳后选择强势股介入。 大浪淘沙，股指高位整理过程恰恰 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Precious Metals and Non - ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report - Authors: Xu Liang, Tang Yun [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Core View - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September (with a probability of nearly 90%), geopolitical tensions, and Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor have triggered a crisis of confidence in US dollar assets, boosting safe - haven demand. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and the de - dollarization trend provide long - term support for gold prices. The market is focused on tomorrow's US non - farm payroll data for guidance on the rate - cut path [3] Specific Data and Information - SHFE gold and silver futures prices and related charts are presented, including price trends, COMEX gold prices, and gold - silver ratios [4] - Gold long - term fund holdings and silver long - term fund holdings are also shown [11][12] - SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences are provided [6][13] Group 3: Copper Core View - Overseas copper mine disruptions have led to a decline in domestic spot processing fees. Tight resources are reflected in the decline of LME copper inventory and high domestic spot premiums. The Yangshan copper premium has climbed to $55/ton, indicating strong import demand. The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" in China has boosted refined copper consumption expectations. Although downstream restocking has promoted transactions, traders' high - price aversion has suppressed trading activity [16] Specific Data and Information - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 80,110 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 450 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.56% [17][22] - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, and refined - scrap price differences are also presented [27][31] - Copper warehouse receipts and inventory data, such as SHFE copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory, are given [32][34] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - **Aluminum**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, and domestic policies are also gradually taking effect, which is beneficial to aluminum prices. Although there are some production and transportation controls during the September parade, the demand in the peak season shows signs of recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but it needs to meet the peak - season expectations to break through the 21,000 resistance level [36] - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite may face greater volatility in the future. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, with high domestic operating capacity and expected oversupply in the second half of the year. Although some alumina plants in Henan have received environmental protection production - limit notices, the impact is mainly short - term [37] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cancellation of tax rebates for some recycled aluminum enterprises may lead to a decline in production capacity utilization, providing support for the price of aluminum alloy [38] Specific Data and Information - Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,710 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.05% [39] - Aluminum and alumina price differences and inventory data, such as warehouse receipts and LME inventory, are presented [43][55] Group 5: Zinc Core View - The supply of zinc is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore price has an advantage, and the increase in domestic processing fees in September may not be large. Overseas zinc ore supply is abundant, but overseas refined zinc production has limited growth. The demand is relatively stable and may improve during the "Golden September and Silver October." The LME inventory has continued to decline, and the zinc price shows a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [61] Specific Data and Information - Zinc futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE zinc main contract is 22,285 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.18% [62] - Zinc inventory data, such as SHFE zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory, are given [71] Group 6: Nickel Core View - The first - phase benchmark price of nickel in Indonesia in September shows that nickel ore prices are basically stable with a slight decline, and other nickel products are also stable. The MHP benchmark price has increased due to demand. Nickel iron prices are relatively firm, stainless steel prices are strong, and the demand for the peak season in September and October is warming up. Sulfate nickel prices are stable, and the impact of the riots in Indonesia on production has subsided [74] Specific Data and Information - Nickel futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE nickel main contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 740 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 1% [75] - Nickel spot prices, downstream profit data, and nickel ore price and inventory data are presented [79][81][83] Group 7: Tin Core View - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to the tight supply. Yunnan Tin's planned 45 - day maintenance starting from August 30 and the decline in refined tin production in August 2025 have contributed to this. In the short term, tin prices still have upward momentum due to the tight supply [88] Specific Data and Information - Tin futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE tin main contract is 273,120 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 860 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.31% [89][95] - Tin inventory data, such as SHFE tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory, are given [99] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The lithium carbonate market is in a shock - adjustment stage. The supply side has no new news, and the demand side has a marginal improvement expectation, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress short - term futures prices. The market trend depends on the actual downstream receiving situation [105] Specific Data and Information - Lithium carbonate futures prices, including daily and weekly changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 71,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 740 yuan and a weekly decrease of 7,500 yuan [106] - Lithium spot prices, including prices of lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium carbonate, are presented [110] - Lithium carbonate inventory data, such as Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and social inventory, are given [113] Group 9: Silicon Industry Chain Core View - **Industrial Silicon**: In the short term, it is in a narrow - range shock, and the shock range is expected to narrow further. In the medium - to - long term, the increase in power costs during the dry season will support prices [116] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a clear box - shock range. There is no strong driver to break the shock pattern for now, and it is necessary to track volume changes and breakthrough signals. The market is sensitive to news and may experience significant price fluctuations [116] Specific Data and Information - Industrial silicon spot prices, including prices at different ports and grades, are provided [117] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices, price differences, and related inventory and production data are presented [118][131][134]

| | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 上证50 | -1.16 -1.07 | -1.15 -0.52 | 13.78 10.29 | | | | 沪深300 | -0.68 | -0.82 | 13.34 | | | | 中证500 | -1.34 | -2.49 | 19.96 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 0.51 | -0.19 | 9.63 | | | | 恒生指数 | -0.60 | 1.06 | 26.34 | | | | 德国DAX | 0.46 | -1.29 | 18.51 | | | | 日经225 | -0.88 | -1.82 | 5.12 | | | | 英国富时100 | 0.67 | -0.10 | 12.30 | | | | 10年期国债期货 | 0.21 | 0.32 | -0.70 | | | 固收类 | 5年期国债期货 | 0.17 | 0.20 | -0.76 | | ...

首席点 评 ： 黄金续创新高 美国劳工统计局报告显示，美国 7月职位空缺数从6月下修后的736万个降至718.1万个，降至10个月低点，远低于预期 的738.2万。美联储在其最新公布的褐皮书调查中表示，近几周全美大部分地区的经济活动几乎没有变化。报告指出， 美联储各辖区反馈显示，由于许多家庭的工资未能跟上物价上涨，消费者支出持平或下降。据不完全统计，今年以来 已有12个省份上调最低工资标准，其中大部分省份月最低工资标准或月最低工资标准最高档上调幅度约在8%-12%。 调整过后，全国31个省份月最低工资标准最高档均超过2000元，上海月最低工资标准居全国首位。 重点品种：贵金属，双焦，原油 贵金属 ： 金银强势走强，黄金呈现收敛突破，市场聚焦周五非农就业。美国职位空缺数量减少 17.6万个，降至718.1 万个，低于预期的737.8万。上周特朗普试图解雇美联储理事，挑战美联储独立性的行为令市场感到不安。美国地质勘 探局提议将白银等六种矿产纳入2025年关键矿产清单，引发白银未来可能征收进口关税的担忧。此前杰克逊霍尔会议 上鲍威尔表示风险的转变确实值得调整政策立场，被认为是较为鸽派的姿态，增强9月降息预期，叠加7 ...

证券之星消息，截至2025年9月3日收盘，赤峰黄金(600988)报收于28.02元，上涨0.76%，换手率5.77%，成交量96.08万手，成交额27.43亿元。 9月3日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流出6175.29万元，占总成交额2.25%，游资资金净流入3046.38万元，占总成交额1.11%，散户资金净流 入3128.92万元，占总成交额1.14%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： 该股主要指标及行业内排名如下： | 指标 | 赤峰黄金 | 贵金属行业均值 | 行业排名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总市值 | 532.5亿元 | 436.84亿元 | 4 11 | | 净资产 | 145.52亿元 | 139.93亿元 | 4 11 | | 净利润 | 11.07亿元 | 8.8亿元 | 4 11 | | 市盈率(动) | 24.05 | 50.87 | 3 11 | | 市净率 | 4.59 | 5.72 | 4 11 | | 毛利率 | 48.1% | 28.16% | 3 11 | | 净利率 | 24.32% | 15.63% | 3 11 | | ROE | ...

财信 证券研报称，市场经历快速轮动后或进入震荡整固阶段，但中期向好趋势未改。本轮上涨本身由 流动性驱动，这意味着后续只要量能未出现大幅收缩，市场仍存在反复轮动活跃的机会。总体而言，我 们预计资金将继续在科技成长与防御板块间寻求平衡，呈现显著的结构性行情特征，短期市场或进入震 荡整固期，建议以板块轮动扩散的思路布局。方向上，一方面，AI、 半导体、 创新药等硬科技成长领 域仍将受益于国产替代和产业升级红利，资金或将继续在细分领域中进行高低切换；另一方面，美联储 9月降息预期不断抬升的背景下，有望强化弱美元环境，贵金属配置价值凸显。 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.05%, the S&P 500 up 0.51%, and the Nasdaq up 1.02% [1] - Major tech stocks saw gains, with Google rising over 9% and Apple increasing more than 3% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks had mixed results, with Fangdd down nearly 15%, NIO down nearly 4%, Xpeng down over 2%, and Alibaba down over 1%. Conversely, Pinduoduo rose over 2% and iQIYI increased over 1% [1] European Market - All three major European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 0.46%, France's CAC40 up 0.86%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.67% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.77% at $3,619.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.52% at $41.81 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract fell 2.77% to $63.77 per barrel, while Brent crude main contract dropped 2.53% to $67.39 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.17% to 98.15, and the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar decreased by 12 basis points to 7.1397 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 2.68 basis points to 3.610%, the 3-year yield down 2.83 basis points to 3.579%, the 5-year yield down 3.12 basis points to 3.691%, the 10-year yield down 4.27 basis points to 4.217%, and the 30-year yield down 6.15 basis points to 4.897% [1] - European bond yields also fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 5.2 basis points to 4.746%, France's 10-year yield down 4.2 basis points to 3.538%, Germany's 10-year yield down 4.6 basis points to 2.737%, Italy's 10-year yield down 6.2 basis points to 3.611%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 5.2 basis points to 3.344% [1]

对大多数投资者来说，在市场上涨时踏空带来的痛苦比在市场下跌时出现亏损更为强烈。这是"损失厌 恶"的典型表现——投资者更痛苦于"本可赚到却未赚到"的心理损失。不仅如此，踏空者需要面对困难 的抉择：指数相对阶段低位有了不小的涨幅，不买，怕市场继续上涨；买，又怕追高被套。 如何应对踏空这一课题，是专业投资者的一门必修课。成熟的投资者，往往不是那些永远精准预测市场 的人，而是懂得如何在不确定性中调整心态、在情绪漩涡中保持清醒的人。 "在早期投资生涯中，我也曾经被这个问题深深困扰过。"中欧瑞博董事长兼首席投资官吴伟志坦 言，"所幸我们已彻底解决了这道难题，不会再陷入类似的困境之中。" 当行情来了，为何会踏空？踏空后又该如何应对？吴伟志接受了中国证券报记者的专访，围绕投资者关 心的诸多问题进行了深入解读。 "行情来了，却没赚到钱。"这是近期很多投资者内心无奈的独白。 投资者为何会踏空 中国证券报：近期，中国资本市场表现亮眼，但仍有部分投资者甚至是专业投资者没有获得与市场同步 的收益。对于专业投资者来说，踏空是一种什么感觉？ 吴伟志：对于持续专注于股市的专业与准专业投资者来说，踏空是一件非常痛苦的事。眼见别人纷纷赚 了钱， ...