研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn 数据来源：银河期货、Mysteel 1/ 6 | 第一部分 | | | | 市场信息 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5504 | -18 | -48 | 232237 | -101565 | 148169 | 17457 | | SM主力合约 | 5642 | -38 | -120 | 212250 | -183485 | 436259 | 31861 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 52 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: November 19, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center of coking coal may decline due to supply guarantee, the downside space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5,300 - 6,000, with a current volatility of 13.22% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.9% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long positions can short - sell SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 15% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 25% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 5,200 - 5,300 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. Market Review - Recently, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising on reduced positions. However, the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. Today, ferroalloys followed coking coal and weakened in a fluctuating manner. The view of a weakly - fluctuating market for ferroalloys persists [4]. Core Logic - The steel mill profitability rate has fallen below 40%, leading to a slight decline in hot metal production, which is expected to continue. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased seasonally, and ferroalloys also have high inventory. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually decreasing, and there is little expectation for continued production increases. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month. This week, ferrosilicon production started to decrease, and silicomanganese production has been decreasing for multiple weeks. Reducing inventory may rely on production cuts [5]. Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.38% week - on - week this week, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 21.96% month - on - month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The steel market failed to meet expectations during the peak season, and the steel mill profitability rate fell below 40%, increasing the negative feedback pressure. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the past 5 years. Consumption has no driving force, and inventory has increased seasonally. Recently, Thailand launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month, indicating high inventory pressure [9][11]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 38, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was 2. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 47 compared to the previous day [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 308, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was - 58. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 119 compared to the previous day [10][12].

黑色产业链日报 2025/11/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has announced final safeguard measures on certain imported ferroalloys to protect its domestic ferroalloy industry, effective until November 17, 2028 [1] Group 1: Safeguard Measures - The safeguard measures will include tariff quotas and minimum import prices for designated imported ferroalloys. If imports exceed the quotas and prices fall below the minimum, additional safeguard duties will be imposed [1] - The measures are a response to a significant increase in ferroalloy imports, which have risen by 17% from 2019 to 2024, leading to a decline in the market share of EU producers from 38% to 24% [1] Group 2: Impact on Industry - Ferroalloys are critical materials used to enhance the hardness, tensile strength, wear resistance, and corrosion resistance of steel, with applications in steelmaking, construction, automotive, aerospace, and military industries [1] - The EU primarily imports ferroalloys from Norway, Iceland, Kazakhstan, and Brazil. To mitigate the impact of the safeguard measures on European supply chains, the EU Commission will hold consultations with Norway and Iceland every three months to assess the effects [1]

【钢材】价格持稳 周二期现价格持稳,但现货成交量回落,市场主动追涨动能偏弱。宏观层面,下个观察期在12月初以后;重点观察并跟踪 | | | | | | | | Ext ENGEREN | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/19 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | | | | | 7000 | | 1000 ...

供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/ ...

黑色建材日报 2025-11-19 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 铁矿石 【行情资讯】 昨日铁矿石主力合约（I2601）收至 792.00 元/吨，涨跌幅+0.44 %（+3.50），持仓变化-10108 手，变化 至 47.13 万手。铁矿石加权持仓量 90.80 万手。现货青岛港 PB 粉 795 元/湿吨，折盘面基差 53.55 元/ 吨，基差率 6.33%。 消息方面，西芒杜铁矿项目于 11 月 11 日正式投产，但爬产仍需时间，预计年内增量 有限。 【策略观点】 供给方面，最新一期海外铁矿石发运量回升明显。发运端，澳洲、巴西发运量均有所反弹。主流矿山方面， 除 BHP 外其余三家发运均环比提升。非主流国家发运量有所增加，近端到港量减量较多，两周平滑后符合 节奏。需求方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has announced final safeguard measures on certain imported ferroalloys to protect its domestic ferroalloy industry, effective for three years until November 17, 2028 [1] Group 1: Safeguard Measures - The safeguard measures will include tariff quotas and minimum import prices for designated imported ferroalloys. If imports exceed the quotas and prices fall below the minimum, additional safeguard duties will be imposed [1] - The measures are a response to a significant increase in ferroalloy imports, which have risen by 17% from 2019 to 2024, leading to a decline in the market share of EU producers from 38% to 24% [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - Ferroalloys are critical materials used to enhance specific properties of steel, such as hardness, tensile strength, wear resistance, and corrosion resistance, and are widely applied in industries including steelmaking, construction, automotive, aerospace, and military [1] - The EU primarily imports ferroalloys from Norway, Iceland, Kazakhstan, and Brazil. To mitigate the impact of the safeguard measures on European supply chains, the EU Commission will hold consultations with Norway and Iceland every three months to assess the effects [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy market is facing a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with production profits gradually declining. The market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is at a high level. The cost center of ferroalloys may move down due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the downward space is limited. It is expected that the ferroalloy will fluctuate weakly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 29.5%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 10.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.9% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Market Review and Core Logic - **Market Review**: Yesterday, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising with a reduction in positions. Today, they followed the decline of coking coal, and the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. The view of weak fluctuations is maintained [4]. - **Core Logic**: The steel mill profitability rate has continued to decline, falling below 40%. The molten iron output has slightly decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased more than seasonally, and the ferroalloy's own inventory is also at a high level. The production profits of ferroalloys are gradually declining, and the market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The inventory pressure is large. Ferrosilicon production has started to decrease this week, and silicomanganese production has decreased for multiple consecutive weeks. The downstream demand is gradually weakening, and inventory reduction may still depend on production cuts [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Ferrosilicon production started to decrease this week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the magnesium ingot production increased by 21.96% month - on - month [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: The steel peak season was not prosperous, the steel mill profit rate fell below 40%, and the negative feedback pressure was gradually increasing. The coil and plate segment is still in a situation of high inventory and high production. Although the production has decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. There is no driving force on the consumption side, and the inventory has increased more than seasonally, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Recently, Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month, with large inventory pressure [8][10]. 3.5 Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 26, the 01 - 05 spread was - 10, etc. The spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1141 week - on - week [8]. - **Silicomanganese Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270, the 01 - 05 spread was - 66, etc. The spot prices in different regions decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1750 week - on - week [9][11].

铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5522 | -140 | -40 | 333802 | 38430 | 132798 | 15371 | | SM主力合约 | 5680 | -112 | -84 | 395735 | 188526 | 404398 | 45390 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5280 | 0 | -50 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5600 | 0 | -20 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5250 | 0 | -30 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 5500 | -50 | -60 | | 72%FeSi青海 | 5300 | 0 | 0 | 硅锰6517广西 | 5600 | 0 | ...