中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-10 美联储12月利率决议临近，关注预期差 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 有⾊观点：美联储12⽉利率决议临近，关注预期差 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资对美联储12月降息预期升温，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端延 续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏 弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年 1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需略改善，预期偏紧。整体来看， 中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧推高价格，但美联储12月利率决 议公布前资金出现获利回吐，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有 趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：美联储议息会议将近，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价震荡回落。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价随有⾊ ...

华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4243.00美元/盎司，环比11月28 日+51.95美元/盎司，涨幅为1.24%。周内伦敦白银价格为58.11美元/盎司，环比11月28日+4.20美元/盎 司，涨幅为7.78%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 贵金属：PCE符合预期，12月降息概率较大 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4243.00美元/盎司，环比11月28日+51.95美元/盎司，涨幅为1.24%。周 内伦敦白银价格为58.11美元/盎司，环比11月28日+4.20美元/盎司，涨幅为7.78%。 数据方面，美国11月标普全球制造业PMI终值52.2，前值51.9，预期51.9。美国11月ISM制造业指数 48.2，前值48.7，预期49。美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比2.8%，前值2.9%，预期2.8%。美国9月PCE物 价指数同比2.8%，前值2.7%，预期2.8%。美国9月实际个人消费支出（PCE）环比0%，前值0.2%，预期 0.1%。 本周公布的重磅数据为美联储比较关心的9月PCE物价指数整体符合预期，且核心PCE指数同比数据环 比下滑，提升了市场对于美联储在12月进一步降息的 ...

7 . 昭衍新药(06127)涨超7.76% 。消息面上，据红星资本局报道，12月上旬，食蟹猴单价悄然跃过10 万元大关。 点击蓝字，关注我们 今日上午港股 1 . 百奥赛图-B(02315)涨超9.4% 。消息面上，百奥赛图今早发布公告称，经上海证券交易所审核同 意，百奥赛图(北京)医药科技股份有限公司发行的人民币普通股股票将于2025年12月10日在上海证券 交易所科创板上市。 2 . "中式面馆第一股"遇见小面(02408)涨4.69% 。消息面上，12月5日， 遇见小面董事长宋奇于上市仪 式上表示，本月底将于新加坡开设首家门店，反映公司向国际化迈出一步。 3 . 内房股集体下跌， 中国海外宏洋集团(00081)跌9.38%，绿城中国(03900)跌4.66%，新城发展(01030) 跌3.24%，融创中国(01918)跌1.55% 。 4. 海昌海洋公园(02255)再挫9% 。消息面上，近期，"祥源系"数款收益权产品到期未兑付事件持续发 酵。 5 . 有色股跌幅居前， 江西铜业股份(00358)跌6.24%，洛阳钼业(03993)跌6.48%，中国铝业(02600)跌 5.43%，紫金矿业(0289 ...

12月8日，自2026年1月起，欧盟的碳边境调节机制（CBAM）将从根本上改变全球贸易的经济逻辑。对 于金属供应商与采购方而言，这意味着直接且即时的成本暴露，并将真实体现在利润、竞争力与供应链 策略中。碳排放强度不再只是一个披露指标，而是决定市场准入、利润空间与成本结构的核心要素。 RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，在新制度环境下，企业的策略调整速度正在成为新的竞争焦点。 随着政策向财务现实的全面过渡，CBAM正快速影响金属供应链的采购决策。进口商开始评估自身的碳 成本暴露，生产商则根据排放结构重新审视其资产布局。为帮助行业领导者预判影响、管理风险， Fastmarkets发布了《Margins on the line： CBAM insights for metals suppliers and buyers》报告。 CBAM如何影响成本：从免费配额退出到碳成本全面落地 CBAM将对钢铁、铝、水泥、化肥、电力与氢等产品征收基于嵌入排放量的碳成本，并与欧盟碳排放配 额（EUA）价格挂钩。自2026年起，进口商需购买并提交CBAM证书以覆盖排放量。 随着欧盟碳排放交易体系（ETS）逐步取消免费配额，该义务将 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The term structure of SHFE silver futures is close to flat, contrasting with the previous CONTANGO, mainly due to the tight spot market. The silver TD deferred fee has been consistently showing a short - to - long payment situation. After January, the spot tightness may ease, and the CONTANGO structure is expected to return [3] Group 2: Copper - This week, focus on the Fed's interest rate decision and the trend of the US CPI year - on - year data. Given that last week's macro and micro factors jointly boosted copper prices, this week, even if the macro expectations are realized, the "high - price but low - trading" situation at the micro - level needs to be digested, so beware of price adjustments at high levels [14] - The latest prices and daily changes of copper futures and spot are as follows: the latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 92,970 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan or 0.2%; the latest price of LME copper 3M is 11,665 dollars/ton, up 231 dollars or 2.02%. Among spot prices, the latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 92,300 yuan/ton, up 715 yuan or 0.78% [15][20] Group 3: Aluminum and Alumina - Short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, mainly driven by improved macro sentiment and the strong performance of copper. However, pay attention to the interest rate cut expectations and be vigilant against potential price corrections before the interest rate cut. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, with high domestic production capacity, an open import window, and a large number of incoming import alumina, which exacerbates the imbalance between supply and demand [34] - The latest price of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.31%; the latest price of alumina main contract is 2,585 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.17% [36] Group 4: Zinc - The ADP data indicates that an interest rate cut in December is certain. The next Fed Chairman may be pre - determined by Trump, raising doubts about the Fed's independence and potentially leading to more aggressive interest rate cuts. On the fundamental side, TC has dropped significantly, increasing the willingness of smelters to cut or stop production, resulting in supply contraction. The demand side is entering the off - season. Domestic inventory reduction due to exports and production cuts supports Shanghai zinc, while LME inventory is gradually increasing. Currently, with improving macro conditions but a stalemate in fundamentals, Shanghai zinc is undervalued among non - ferrous metals and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the impetus of funds [59] - The latest price of Shanghai zinc main contract is 23,285 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.09%; the latest price of LME zinc closing price is 3,098 dollars/ton, up 7.5 dollars or 0.24% [60] Group 5: Nickel - Nickel ore is expected to be stable and slightly stronger as major mining areas in the Philippines and Indonesia have entered the rainy season, affecting production and shipping. The new energy sector has seen a certain decline following nickel prices, with most precursor factories having completed procurement, resulting in reduced downstream purchasing willingness. The decline of nickel iron has slowed, with some iron factories reducing production due to limited profits, and strong willingness of upstream suppliers to hold prices. The fundamentals of stainless steel have limited improvement. Currently, off - season demand is weak, so pay attention to Indonesian policies and the December interest rate cut expectations [75] - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 118,030 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan or 0%; the latest price of LME nickel 3M is 14,970 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars or - 0.02% [76] Group 6: Tin - The ADP data indicates a December interest rate cut, and Trump's frequent intervention in the next Fed Chairman raises doubts about the Fed's independence, potentially leading to more aggressive interest rate cuts. Pay attention to the Thursday interest rate meeting. On the fundamental side, in the short term, it is difficult to solve the raw material problem on the supply side, and there are frequent supply - side disturbances, so Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level volatile trend. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may ease due to potential peace talks [88] - The latest price of Shanghai tin main contract is 319,200 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan or 0.54%; the latest price of LME tin 3M is 40,175 dollars/ton, down 365 dollars or - 0.9% [89] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - From the fundamental perspective, the arrival volume of lithium ore in December is expected to increase month - on - month, potentially alleviating the tight supply situation at the ore end. Lithium salt factories generally maintain a high operating rate, and the resumption progress of Jiaxiaowo Ningde needs to be closely monitored. The demand side shows the characteristic of "off - season not being off - season", with high pre - production schedules for power and energy storage terminals in December, driving strong purchasing demand from downstream material factories. The pattern of strong supply and demand continues, providing a bottom - level support for prices. Technically, the current price faces short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and there is a strong motivation for long - position holders to take profits at this level. Be vigilant against potential profit - taking by long - position holders due to increased differences among funds in the context of active market trading recently. In general, in the short term, be cautious about the risk of chasing high prices at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and the price may experience a phased correction [103] - The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 94,840 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan from the previous day but down 980 yuan from last week [104] Group 8: Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with both upstream and downstream having expectations of production cuts. The fundamentals lack substantial improvement momentum. Considering potential supply - side disturbances from winter environmental protection in production areas, the short - term fundamentals of the industry are unlikely to improve. Technically, the futures price has been moving within the Bollinger Bands, and in the short term, it will closely follow the price fluctuations of related products such as polysilicon and coking coal, and is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation trend. In the long - term, the downside space of the price is limited [117] - The latest price of industrial silicon main contract is 8,675 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or - 1.48% [120]

（原标题：全线大涨！这一金属也火了 后市如何？） 部分上市公司的三季报也体现了行业经营境遇的好转。云铝股份三季报显示，公司前三季度实现营业总 收入为440.72亿元，较去年同报告期营业总收入增加48.86亿元，同比上涨12.47%。归母净利润为43.98 亿元，较去年同报告期归母净利润增加5.78亿元，同比上涨15.14%。经营活动现金净流入为69.77亿 元，较去年同报告期经营活动现金净流入增加14.04亿元，同比上涨25.19%。 据SMM调研，11月国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率震荡下滑，行业逐渐从旺季转向淡季，但消费表现 仍有韧性。 五矿期货认为，受中美贸易缓和、美联储降息预期等宏观利好推动，有色金属氛围持续偏暖。基本面 看，当前国内铝锭库存震荡去化，美国现货铝溢价维持高位，LME铝锭库存延续减少态势，且库存绝 对水平处于相对低位，叠加供应扰动、下游开工率偏稳，以及铜价上涨，铝价仍有进一步走强的可能。 2025年是有色金属投资大年，作为工业金属大户的电解铝也没有缺席。 12月5日，A股电解铝板块全线大涨。闽发铝业涨停，中孚实业、宏创控股、南山铝业等9只股票涨幅超 过5%。 机构认为，基于国内电解铝已经进 ...

周期半月谈 - 聚焦资源品与行业自律 20251207 摘要 有色金属价格将轮动上涨，降息和去美元化长期趋势不变，但短期受风 险偏好扰动。黄金市场前景乐观，受央行购金、ETF 购进及黄金代币化 推动，预计 2026 年黄金价格上涨空间可期，黄金股票估值具吸引力。 铜价短期暴涨因美国关税预期导致 LME 和 COMEX 价差扩大，美国市场 定价脱离基本面。2026 年美国虹吸效应或使非美地区面临紧仓风险， 但若 LME 挤仓或关税预期下降，美国可能重回基本面定价，带来阶段性 过剩风险。 铝价跟随铜价走势，全球电力紧张影响供应。国内产能见顶、海外能源 成本高企及投资周期约束使全球电解铝供应弹性减弱，预计 2025- 2030 年供给增速持续下滑，需牛市强化价格激励，偶发事件亦推动铝 价。 建材行业普遍经历盈利压力下的供给收缩，推荐消费建材和玻纤龙头。 细分赛道企业通过产品差异化获得超额利润，浮法玻璃龙头有望通过自 发冷修实现供给平衡并带动盈利修复。 Q&A 对于有色金属行业的整体看法是什么？ 我们继续保持对有色金属市场的乐观态度，认为其行情将持续波澜壮阔。受益 于江西地区的发展以及中美两国在 2026 年的积极财 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月05日 华源晨会精粹 20251207 北交所 五载风劲，掘"稀"向"新"—北交所 2026 年度投资策略：总结 2025 年： "十四五"收官，四秩筑基。成果来看，2025 年作为"十四五"规划收官之年，北 交所市场迎来多重突破，总市值突破 8200 亿元，开户数达 950 万户，日均成交额迈 向 300 亿元，流动性实现质的飞跃。市场"专精特新"特色更加鲜明，国家级"小 巨人"占比达 61%，已培育一批高成长、稀缺性企业，在新能源、机器人、AI 等产 业链构建优质企业矩阵。展望 2026 年："十五五"开年，掘稀向新。站在"十五五" 开局新起点，北交所将围绕"稀缺性"与"新质生产力"双主线深化布局。资金层 面，2025H1 公募基金持仓市值达 224 亿元，QFII、社保基金等中长期资金稳步入场； 后续主动权益+被动资金双轮驱动趋势明确，且 ETF 有望引入数十亿元增量活水， 其发展有望遵循"宽基引领、主题拓展"的路径，未来或将形成指数产品体系；专 精特新指数基金 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 - 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 供应格局趋紧，工业金属价格大幅 上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 行 业 点 评 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 有色金属 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37% ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and rare earths, indicating high market activity and potential for growth [12][33][34]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton on LME, with domestic prices rising by 6.12% to 92,800 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and high demand [1][13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton on LME, with domestic prices up 3.4% to 22,300 yuan per ton, reflecting stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [2][14]. - Gold prices decreased by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and market volatility, while SPDR gold holdings increased [3][15]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, rose by 2.79%, with expectations of increased demand due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][34]. - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the outlook remains positive due to anticipated recovery in exports [4][35]. - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, supported by low inventory levels and supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar [4][36]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 92,800 yuan per ton [1][13]. - Supply constraints are evident with a decrease in copper inventory and processing fees [1][13]. - Downstream demand is weakening due to high prices, leading to a decline in new orders [1][13]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton, with domestic prices at 22,300 yuan per ton [2][14]. - Inventory levels remain stable, but processing rates have decreased slightly [2][14]. - Demand is cautious due to high prices affecting transaction volumes [2][14]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, with geopolitical factors influencing market dynamics [3][15]. - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating a slight uptick in investor interest [3][15]. Rare Earths - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices increased by 2.79%, with expectations of higher demand due to supply constraints [4][34]. - Export conditions are improving, contributing to a positive outlook for the sector [4][34]. Antimony - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to potential export recovery [4][35]. Tin - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, driven by low inventory levels and supply disruptions [4][36].