Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is actively supporting the green transformation of high-carbon industries under the "dual carbon" goals, with innovative financial products being introduced to facilitate this transition [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Products and Innovations - Weihe Bank has launched a "sustainable water-saving loan" with a credit line of 270 million yuan to support energy-saving renovations for a thermal power company [2]. - Industrial Bank has issued a 200 million yuan loan to an aluminum company for its green transformation, linking loan interest rates to the company's energy consumption performance [2]. - As of the end of 2024, Industrial Bank's green financing scale for transformation sectors is expected to reach 192.7 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - Transition finance is seen as a crucial supplement to green finance, focusing on supporting high-carbon industries in their orderly transition towards climate goals [3]. - Current transition financial products are primarily in the form of transition bonds and loans, with bonds dominating the market, while loan products have yet to achieve significant scale [3]. - There is a significant funding gap for low-carbon transitions in traditional high-carbon industries, indicating that transition finance could become a new growth point for financial institutions [5]. Group 3: Standardization and Policy Support - The development of transition finance is hindered by an incomplete standard system, with a need for quantifiable indicators and thresholds [5]. - The People's Bank of China is actively working on establishing transition finance standards for key industries, with pilot regions already seeing a cumulative loan amount of approximately 42.5 billion yuan [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Guizhou Province is effectively transforming its ecological advantages into developmental advantages while maintaining good environmental quality during rapid economic growth [1][2] - From 2020 to 2024, Guizhou's GDP is projected to increase from 1.78 trillion yuan to 2.27 trillion yuan, with forest coverage rising from 61.5% to 63.3%, and the proportion of the green economy in GDP increasing from 42% to 48% [1] - Guizhou is leveraging its diverse terrain and climate to develop mountain characteristic agriculture, leading to increased farmer income, with the province ranking first in the national planting scale for various crops [1] Group 2 - In 2023, Guizhou is integrating green and low-carbon development throughout its high-quality growth process, promoting low-carbon and refined development in resource-based industries such as coal, phosphorus, aluminum, and manganese [1][2] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, the energy consumption per unit of industrial added value in Guizhou has decreased by 18.9% [1] - Guizhou is actively developing four types of green industries: ecological utilization, circular efficiency, low-carbon cleanliness, and environmental governance, effectively expanding the pathway from "green mountains and clear waters" to "golden mountains and silver mountains" [2]

淡季背景下价格向上阻力加大 铝月报 2025/07/04 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止6月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4383万吨，因产能置换运行产能小幅下降，行业开工率环比下滑，产量 360.9万吨，由于天数原因环比减少约3.2%，同比增长1.6%。进入7月，云南置换项目投产运行，总体电解铝运行产能将维持高位。 ◆ 库存&现货：6月国内铝锭社库减少5.7至46.2万吨，保税区库存环比增加，当月增加约0.3至11.9万吨，铝棒库存小幅增加，铝锭加铝棒库存 维持相对低位，现货升水冲高回落。6月LME库存维持去化趋势，减少2.7至34.6万吨，7月初LME交仓有所增多，现货小幅贴水。 ◆ 进出口：5月原铝进口量环比减少，铝材出口维持偏高水平。6月沪铝现货进口亏损有所扩大，相对不利于进口而有利于 ...

矿端扰动持续， 期价维持宽幅震荡 氧化铝月报 2025/07/04 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 目录 01 月度评估 04 供给端 02 期现端 05 进出口 03 原料端 06 需求端 07 库存 月度评估 月度要点小结 ◆ 期货价格：截止7月4日，月内氧化铝指数较6月3日价格累计上涨1.02%至3011元/吨。因几内亚"禁采风波"没有进一步发酵，氧化铝期价逐步回落。进入下旬，随着宏观情绪改 善，商品整体走强，带动氧化铝期价企稳回升。7月2日，几内亚政府宣布创立铝土矿指数以增加国家税收，或将带动矿价重心上移，驱动氧化铝期价进一步上行。但中期氧化铝 供需过剩格局仍难改，预计反弹空间有限。基差方面，本月基差逐步回落，截止7月4日，山东现货价格较氧化铝主力合约价格升水66元/吨。月差方面，连一和连三月差维持震荡， 截止7月4日，连一和连三月差录得59元/吨。。 ◆ 现货价格：随着利润回升，前期检修产能逐步回归，氧化铝供应重回宽松，驱动6月氧化铝现货价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overseas market is showing signs of stagflation risk, while the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious policy with unchanged expectations for two rate cuts within the year. Domestic policies continue to support economic stability, with retail sales growth reaching a new high, indicating marginal improvement in consumption. However, a significant decline in real estate investment remains a core drag on the economy [2][16]. Group 1: Price Trends - Recent domestic and international aluminum prices have shown strong fluctuations. LME aluminum 3M opened at $2454/ton, reaching a monthly high of $2560.5/ton, with a monthly increase of $107.5/ton (4.38%). Meanwhile, domestic Shanghai aluminum opened at 20115 CNY/ton, with a monthly increase of 350 CNY/ton (1.74%) [3]. - The near-month Shanghai aluminum contract is supported by extremely low inventory and high spot premiums, while the far-month contract is pressured by weak seasonal demand and excess alumina supply, leading to a pessimistic outlook for future prices [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's electrolytic aluminum production remains stable and high, with strong support from the passenger vehicle market, despite weak real estate data. The current spot price of electrolytic aluminum is in a premium state [7]. - The domestic bauxite market has seen a slight price increase, currently quoted at 508 CNY/ton, with supply tightening due to seasonal rains and environmental inspections [8]. - The average theoretical cost of aluminum is 18374.51 CNY/ton, with an average profit of 3476 CNY/ton [10]. Group 3: Inventory and Consumption - As of July 3, 2025, aluminum ingot social inventory stands at 456,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory is at 163,000 tons [10]. - In May 2025, the operating rate for aluminum plate and strip enterprises was 73.00%, while the operating rate for aluminum rod and wire enterprises was 63% [13]. - The automotive market shows strong growth, with May production and sales reaching 2.649 million and 2.686 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 11.6% and 11.2% [14]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market outlook indicates that the traditional consumption will be suppressed by the approaching off-season, and the ongoing weakness in real estate will continue to be a challenge. However, low inventory levels and ongoing domestic growth policies are expected to provide some resilience to aluminum prices [19].

Core Viewpoint - The alumina market has experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, characterized by a transition from supply shortages to oversupply, leading to price declines and subsequent rebounds due to production adjustments and external disruptions [2][3][5]. Supply and Production - In the first half of 2025, alumina prices fell sharply from over 4600 to below 2700, marking a new low since listing, primarily due to increased production and a shift to oversupply [2]. - By the end of May 2025, domestic alumina production capacity reached 10,890 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 6.45%, while operational capacity was 8,460 million tons/year, showing a slight decrease of 0.82% year-on-year [5]. - The overall alumina supply has cycled from oversupply to tightness and back to oversupply, with significant production cuts occurring in response to industry losses [5][8]. Price Trends - The alumina market saw a V-shaped price movement from mid-May to the end of June, influenced by temporary supply tightness and subsequent profit recovery among producers [3]. - Despite a slight rebound in prices, the overall expectation remains for continued oversupply, which is likely to exert downward pressure on prices [8][17]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for alumina is not expected to see significant improvement, as the electrolytic aluminum sector, a major downstream consumer, faces capacity constraints [9]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's alumina exports increased significantly, with a total of 117.23 million tons exported, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 79.37% [9]. External Factors - The Guinea mining sector faced disruptions due to government actions, but the overall impact on alumina supply was limited, as exports from Guinea remained robust [11][12]. - Despite concerns over mining operations in Guinea, the overall alumina supply situation is expected to remain stable, with no significant shortages anticipated [13][17]. Cost and Profitability - The average production cost for alumina in China was reported at 2879.8 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 187.20 yuan/ton, indicating a challenging profitability landscape despite declining costs [15][17]. - The industry is expected to continue facing pressure from oversupply, with potential for further production cuts if losses persist [17].

从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 铝类市场周报 淡季影响需求暂弱，铝类或将有所承压 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+0.27%，报20635元/吨。氧化铝低位反弹，周涨跌+1.27%，报3024元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，国内铝土矿港口库存小幅提升，位于中高区间运行，供应量相对充足；几内亚供给受季节性 变化影响雨季发运量有所收减，铝土矿报价持稳运行。供给方面，国内在产产能维持高位运行并且因前期检修项目的 重新投产而略有走高，此外，期价近期因宏观环境的提振而反弹，令盘面期现套保机会出现，冶炼厂生产意愿有所回 暖。需求方面，国内电解铝在产产能保持高位，由于上限的设置，令在产部分增减量皆较为零星，氧化铝需求情况较 为稳定。总的来看，氧化铝基本面或处于供给相对充足，需求稳定阶段，成本端为现货 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province's Binzhou City is focusing on enhancing market vitality by adopting a service philosophy that prioritizes the comfort of enterprises and entrepreneurs, while innovatively optimizing the business environment to promote the development of characteristic industries [1] Group 1: Industry Development Strategy - The city has identified seven characteristic industries, including Bincheng grain, Zhanhua winter jujube, and high-end aluminum in Zouping, and has launched an implementation plan to optimize the business environment for these industries [2] - A collaborative approach is being adopted, with the establishment of seven specialized teams to promote the development of these industries, emphasizing inter-departmental cooperation and localized strategies [2][3] - Expert analysis is being utilized to guide the development of these industries, ensuring that planning is based on current market conditions and future prospects [2] Group 2: Resource Integration and Service Improvement - The city is addressing issues of information asymmetry and resource aggregation by creating industry chain maps and comprehensive resource pools, which include over 3,000 pieces of information to facilitate better resource allocation [3] - A service checklist for key industry matters has been established to streamline processes for businesses, making it easier for them to navigate administrative requirements [3][4] - Localized service initiatives, such as the establishment of administrative approval centers, are being implemented to enhance convenience for businesses [3] Group 3: Policy Effectiveness and Support Mechanisms - A comprehensive review and integration of various business support policies are being conducted to improve awareness and accessibility for enterprises, benefiting over 100,000 market entities [4] - A three-tier evaluation mechanism for business support policies is being established to ensure effective implementation and satisfaction among businesses [4] - The city is creating specialized service zones for characteristic industries to provide integrated services, thereby reducing operational costs for enterprises [5] Group 4: Digital Empowerment and Quality Control - The integration of digital technology is being emphasized, with the development of platforms to enhance data collection and service efficiency for industries [5] - Regular meetings and experience-sharing sessions are being organized to ensure the effective implementation of development tasks and continuous improvement of service quality [5]

印度政府文件显示，印度到2030财年国内 铝需求将达到850万吨。 ...

长江证券发布研报称，碳酸锂、稀土和特钢展现极强爆发性。随着全球经济结构性分化，中国宏桥 (01378)作为传统金属龙头穿越周期波动，表现中枢持续稳中有升。中国宏桥2019年以来屡创新高，最 高涨幅达577%，6年实现近6倍涨幅，2024ROE约26%。该行指出，资源投资开采周期长+海外诸多扰 动，推升资源品质点ROE高出制造业一倍。电解铝供给核心在于电力，铝属于地产经济溢出的新的消费 金属，需求增量极具韧性，铝板块成长有望行稳致远。 长江证券主要观点如下： 借鉴煤炭：高现金分红，估值重塑 近年来做收益率下行，高股息的油和煤炭产纷纷穿越周期，估值逆势抬升，2022年报中国石油和中国神 华（601088）股息率高达8.5%和9.2%，与今年中国宏桥近10%股息率相当。2023Q3以来，煤炭PE中枢 从6X提升至12X。追本溯源，彼时煤炭迈入高分红拐点在于：(1)煤价中高位催生现金流丰厚，赋予分 红能力;(2)负债和开支双双下滑，提升分红意愿;(3)保底分红承诺，更彰显分红信心。增产有限和"双 碳"约束扩产，煤炭供给刚性周期是高分红的强力支撑。 (3)尽管铝主矿价底部企稳，不过氧化铝供给过剩+煤电价下跌，电解铝的高 ...