智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，铝价上涨增厚公司利润，预计中国宏桥(01378)2025-2027年 EPS分别为2.20/3.28/3.29元/股，参考可比公司估值，给予公司2026年12倍PE，合理价值为44.25港币/ 股，维持"买入"评级。(备注：汇率为1港元=0.89人民币) 期待高分红比例延续 据媒体报道，2022-2024年公司年度现金分红比例分别为49%、48%、64%。按照2.3万元含税铝价假 设，2026年公司归母净利润可达327.4亿元，假设分红延续64%，按2月9日市值计算，股息率达6.7%。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期。海外电解铝产量增量超预期。铝土矿、阳极、电力等成本上涨超预期。 再生铝供应超预期。 铝价上涨将带来公司利润弹性 电解铝需求改善的背景下，供给的强约束将更加突出，铝价上行弹性不可忽视。据媒体报道，2025年沪 铝期货均价为20750元/吨(含税),同比上涨4%。截至2026年2月8日，2026年沪铝期货均价已达24117元/吨 (含税)。据中国宏桥财报及其子公司山东宏桥新型材料有限公司信评报告，截至2025年3月末，公司具 有电解铝产能645.9万吨，产销持稳， ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：003038 证券简称：鑫铂股份 公告编号：2026-007 安徽鑫铂铝业股份有限公司第三届 董事会第二十七次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 安徽鑫铂铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）第三届董事会第二十七次会议通知已提前3 日发出，于2026年2月13日在公司会议室以现场结合通讯表决的方式召开。本次会议应出席董事9人，实 际出席董事9人（其中李正培、胡晓明、黄继武、严崴董事以通讯表决方式出席），会议由公司董事长 唐开健先生召集并主持，公司董事和高级管理人员列席了本次会议。 本次会议的召集、召开符合《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称"《公司法》"）和《公司章程》等相 关法规的规定，决议合法有效。 二、董事会会议审议情况 审议通过《关于使用部分闲置募集资金进行现金管理的议案》 具体内容详见公司同日刊登在《证券时报》、《中国证券报》、《上海证券报》、《证券日报》及巨潮 资讯网（http://www.cnin ...

能源隐忧初现，产业打击隐伏 俄乌冲突刚爆发那会儿，欧洲那边就乱套了。天然气管道供应中断，价格一下子上蹿下跳，荷兰期货市 场在2022年8月最高冲到每兆瓦时339欧元，比之前贵了好几倍。德国工厂用电贵得离谱，每千瓦时0.5 欧元，差不多是我们这边的七到八倍。 钢铁、铝和化肥这些行业成本直线上升，德国钢铁每吨比我们高出188美元，电解铝多出5110美元，合 成氨也贵了3280美元。不少企业扛不住了，关门的关门，搬走的搬走，几千家工厂转移到能源便宜的地 方去，美国和中国成了热门选择。 欧洲工业大国像德国、法国、意大利，损失惨重，直接经济损失超1500亿欧元，间接的得有万亿级别。 港口外头，集装箱堆得老高，设备拉走运往海外。郊区车间里头，机器停摆，灰尘到处飞。 美国加入"午夜锤击"，炸福尔多地下，地面震动。冲突12天，伊朗导弹落卡塔尔美军基地，尘埃中士兵 撤。停火后红海不稳，船长扫描海面，警惕无人机。 油价波动，升级时近91美元。要全面爆发，伊朗出口减200万桶/日，价飙108美元。我们从中东进口石 油八成，红海主道。 油轮队海军护航，雷达锁定目标，直升机监视。一旦封锁，供应断，炼油厂原料缺，管道空转，工人等 补给。 ...

上海期货价格走势：今日铸造铝合金主力月2603合约高开拉涨，日内维持偏强运行姿态，截止当日15： 00收盘，铸造铝主力合约报22320元，涨195元，涨幅0.88%，全天成交量5471手减少3929手；持仓量 11540手减少415手。 据长江有色金属网数据统计，2月24日长江现货数据显示，铝合金ADC12报价23400-23600元/吨，均价 报23500元/吨，涨100元；铸造铝合金锭(A356.2)报价25500-25900元/吨，均价报25700元/吨，涨200元； 铸造铝合金锭(A380）报价24900-25100元/吨，均价报25000元/吨，涨100元；铸造铝合金锭(ZL102)报价 25000-25200元/吨，均价报25100元/吨，涨200元；铸造铝合金锭(ZLD104)报价24900-25100元/吨，均价 报25000元/吨，涨200元； ccmn铸造铝合金市场分析： 宏观层面，国内节后首个交易日市场情绪乐观，金、铜、铝、锡等金属大涨带动周边金属跟涨，铸造铝 多头信心回升，推动期货价格上行。 基本面来看，废铝供应持续偏紧，成本端坚挺，为铸造铝价格高位震荡提供支撑。需求端，临近春节下 游 ...

引子：铁山港的"零碳"探索和实践之路，本质上是一场成功通过供给侧结构性改革——它用"绿电"这一 新要素，盘活了高耗能产业这一旧动能，最终孕育出广西工业未来的新增长极。 2025年末，在广西北部湾的浪潮中，一场深刻的供给侧结构性改革正在铁山港（临海）工业区悄然发 生。这片北部湾畔的工业热土被赋予了特殊使命——作为广西申报创建的三个国家级零碳园区之一，北 海铁山港作为北部湾深水泊位最密集港区，天然的地域禀赋和区位优势备受瞩目。如何通过制度创新与 要素重组，探索出一条"绿电直供+先进制造+循环再生"的转型之路？这不仅是广西产业园区绿色转型 实现高质量发展的"试验田"，更将为撬动后发地区供给侧改革与产业升级蹚出一条新路。 破解产业园区"结构性梗阻" 长期以来，广西的产业园区发展面临着一个尴尬的"二元悖论"：一方面，作为西部省份，广西拥有丰富 的风、光等可再生能源资源，但由于电网消纳能力不足，"弃风弃光"时有发生；另一方面，为了承接东 部产业转移，广西布局了大量电解铝、化工、钢铁等高能耗产业，这些产业极度依赖电力，却因电网结 构原因，长期依赖火电，面临着"高能耗、高成本、低附加值"的尴尬。 痛点即改革的起点。北海市铁山 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price to HKD 43.2, citing a continued tight supply in the aluminum market through 2026, which has led to upward revisions in profit expectations [1] Group 1: Supply Factors - Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing regulatory limits, with an expected capacity of 44.59 million tons by the end of 2025, close to the 45 million tons cap [2] - Significant disruptions are anticipated in overseas supply, such as the planned closure of the Mozal aluminum smelter in Africa due to rising electricity costs, which poses long-term risks to global aluminum production [2] - The demand for aluminum is expected to increase as the trend of substituting aluminum for copper accelerates, with the copper-aluminum price ratio reaching 4.2, significantly above the historical reasonable level of 3.5 [2] Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand from the renewable energy sector is on the rise, particularly from electric vehicles and energy storage devices, which are consuming increasing amounts of aluminum [2] Group 3: Company Strategy and Financial Outlook - China Hongqiao plans to implement a high dividend strategy, benefiting from reduced future capital expenditures, with 2.17 million tons of capacity already transferred to Yunnan and 830,000 tons remaining in its 3 million tons transfer plan [3] - The company is expected to gradually implement its transfer plan starting in 2026, leading to a decrease in capital expenditure compared to previous high levels, which will enhance its dividend payment capacity [3] - The dividend payout ratio is projected to reach a maximum of 64% in 2024, making the company an attractive high-dividend stock in the Hong Kong market [3]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price to HKD 43.2, citing a continued tight supply in the aluminum market through 2026, which has led to upward revisions in profit expectations [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing regulatory limits, with an expected capacity of 44.59 million tons by the end of 2025, close to the 45 million tons cap [2] - Significant disruptions are anticipated in overseas supply, such as the planned closure of the Mozal aluminum smelter in Africa due to rising electricity costs, which poses long-term risks to global aluminum production [2] - The demand for aluminum is accelerating as it increasingly substitutes copper, with the copper-aluminum price ratio reaching 4.2, significantly above the historical reasonable level of 3.5 [2] Group 2: Demand Trends - The demand from the renewable energy sector is on the rise, with increasing consumption of aluminum in electric vehicles and energy storage devices [2] Group 3: Company Strategy and Financial Outlook - China Hongqiao plans to implement a high dividend strategy, benefiting from reduced future capital expenditures, with 2.17 million tons of capacity already relocated to Yunnan [3] - The company is expected to gradually execute its relocation plan based on policy requirements and market conditions, leading to a decrease in capital expenditure compared to previous high levels [3] - With improved profitability and reduced capital expenditure needs, the company's dividend payout capacity is projected to enhance, with a maximum dividend payout ratio of 64% anticipated in 2024 [3]

有学者指出，虽然最高法院的判决在一定程度上遏制了特朗普个人权力的过度扩张，保住了国会的征税权，但它并未能阻止美国继续转向对等贸易的保护主 义道路。从特朗普推出的B计划来看，美国仍然在寻求以关税手段来保护自己的经济利益，这也意味着尽管法律层面受阻，特朗普在国际贸易中的保护主义 立场依然坚定。 美国最高法院近日作出了一项震撼性的判决，裁定特朗普援引国际紧急经济权力法加征的全球关税违宪。这一判决不仅让特朗普在去年重返白宫后的第一次 法律较量中遭遇失败，更引发了涉及至少1700亿美元退税的争议。如今，许多进口商已准备好积极争取退税，以弥补自己因高关税遭受的经济损失，而特朗 普也迅速启动了B计划，准备反击这一局面。 过去一年里，特朗普一直试图通过加征关税的手段，迫使全球屈服，从而重塑全球贸易格局。然而，在2月20日，美国最高法院明确划定了红线，宣布总统 的权力并非无限，不能单凭行政命令就绕过国会的征税权。法院的这一判决以6比3的结果作出，不仅是特朗普遭遇的法律败北，更是对他一贯法律当参考的 治国风格投下了反对票。首席大法官罗伯兹在多数意见书中强调，国会授权必须是明确且受限的。简单来说，1977年通过的《国际紧急经济权力 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; glass to trade weakly in a range [1][7][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Suggest buying copper on dips; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1][10][11][13][14][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC; low - level rebound for caustic soda; selling short on rallies for soda ash; strong - biased oscillation for styrene; range trading for rubber, urea, methanol; weak - biased oscillation for polyolefins [1][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Strong - biased oscillation for cotton and cotton yarn; oscillation for apples and jujubes [1][24][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract of live pigs, selling short on rallies; selling short on rallies for near - month egg contracts if culling does not accelerate; range trading for corn; short - selling on rallies for soybean meal; buying on dips for oils [1][28][29][30] Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It also analyzes the impacts of policies, geopolitical events, and seasonal factors on different futures markets [1][5][8][10] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish, buy on dips. AI concerns boost precious metals, and the market may be strong before the Two Sessions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Oscillation. Despite supply pressure, the bond market may continue the bull market if the pressure can be digested [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable, with slow demand recovery [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The tariff game continues, and the steel price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to low valuation and weak driving forces [8] - **Glass**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply reduction and demand weakness coexist, and there are potential risks and uncertainties [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Suggest buying on dips. Supply is tight, demand is resilient, and copper remains a strategic resource [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is expected to improve, but the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous market remains [11] - **Nickel**: Suggest buying on dips moderately. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price [13] - **Tin**: Range trading. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is in a recovery trend [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical events and economic data affect the prices, and the mid - term price centers are rising [14] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. Supply and demand factors coexist, and attention should be paid to the disturbances in Yichun's mining end [16] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Low valuation, weak domestic demand, and high inventory, but there are potential opportunities from policies and exports [16][18] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level rebound. Supply pressure is large, and the price may be supported if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves [18] - **Soda Ash**: Selling short on rallies. Supply is excessive, and the price may be under pressure in the short - term [24] - **Styrene**: Strong - biased oscillation. Low inventory during the Spring Festival and export support the price, but supply may increase in March [19][20] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is in the off - season, and demand is expected to support the price [20] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply increases, and demand is supported by agricultural and industrial needs, with stable prices [21] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand is weak, and the market is weak [22][23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply is high, demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and inventory accumulates [23] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Strong - biased oscillation. Global cotton supply and demand change, and the price is expected to be strong after the festival [24] - **Apples**: Oscillation. The trading volume of different grades of apples varies in different regions [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillation. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes varies by region [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract, selling short on rallies. Short - term price is under pressure, and long - term price depends on capacity reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Selling short on rallies for near - month contracts if culling does not accelerate. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak after the festival [28] - **Corn**: Range trading. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply is relatively loose [29] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - selling on rallies. Global supply is abundant, and domestic supply is loose from March to June [29][30] - **Oils**: Buying on dips. After the Spring Festival, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market higher, with different performances among varieties [30][31][32][33][34][35]

沪铝或以震荡偏强运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2026 年 24 | 2 | 月 | 日星期二 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 研究报告 铝周报 【宏观面、基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 国家统计局数据显示，2026 年 1 月份，全国居民消费价格同 比上涨 0.2%。其中，城市上涨 0.2%，农村上涨 0.1%；食品价格 下降 0.7%，非食品价格上涨 0.4%；消费品价格上涨 0.3%，服务 价格上涨 0.1%。1 月份，全国居民消费价格环比上涨 0.2%。其中， 城市上涨 0.2%，农村上涨 ...