Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate futures price experienced fluctuations, initially rising to 62,100 yuan/ton on June 11 due to Zimbabwe's plan to ban lithium ore exports starting in 2027, but then fell again on June 12 as market fundamentals showed no production cuts, leading to continued oversupply pressure [1][7][8] - The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase by 9.4% month-on-month in June, reaching 78,875 tons, driven by higher output from spodumene and recovery lithium, with an overall operating rate rising nearly 9 percentage points to 58% [2][8] - Despite the increase in production, the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to remain limited during the traditional off-season from June to August, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by immediate needs rather than stockpiling [2][10] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Sales and Impact - New energy vehicle sales in China have shown significant growth, with production and sales in the first five months of the year exceeding 10% year-on-year, indicating a stable upward trend in the automotive industry [3][5] - New energy vehicles accounted for 44% of total new car sales, with exports of new energy vehicles reaching 855,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 64.6% [3][5] Group 3: Supply Chain and Import Trends - Lithium ore imports have continued to grow, with April imports reaching 520,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%, primarily sourced from Australia, Zimbabwe, Brazil, and Nigeria [6][8] - Zimbabwe's government announced a ban on lithium ore exports starting in January 2027 to promote local refining industries, which is not expected to cause immediate shortages in the lithium carbonate market due to ample global lithium resources [6][7] Group 4: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The lithium price has been on a downward trend since March, with a potential equilibrium price around 58,000 yuan/ton based on supply and demand dynamics, indicating that prices may have reached a bottom [8][9] - Current market pressures stem from falling mineral prices and limited demand during the off-season, with expectations of continued inventory accumulation until August [9][10]

碳酸锂周报 供应有所修复，价格延续震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/6/9 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，5月产量环比增加1.9%至73020吨。本周碳酸锂产量环比增加615吨至16013吨，4月碳酸锂产量环比减少 9%至71652吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂 计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进口方面，2025年4月中国锂矿石进口数量为62.3万吨，环比增加16.5%。其中从澳大利亚 进口29.8万吨，环比减少3%，自津巴布韦进口10.6万吨，环比增加82%，自尼日利亚进口8.9万吨，环比增加4%。4月碳酸锂进口量 为2.8万吨，环比增加56%，自智利进口碳酸锂2万吨，占比71%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比下跌，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成本压力较大。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain stable with an increase in imports, while the demand growth rate is slower than supply. The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure and is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price rebounds to a high level and to keep an eye on upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material production schedules [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - **Production**: In May, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 1.9% month - on - month to 73020 tons. This week, the output increased by 350 tons to 15398 tons. The production of lithium salt plants has been stable, and some overseas mines have adjusted their production plans. For example, Pilbara Minerals lowered its lithium concentrate production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year to 700,000 - 740,000 tons, and the Bald Hill concentrator planned to stop operating in early December 2024 [4]. - **Import**: In April 2025, China's lithium ore import volume was 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The lithium carbonate import volume was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56%. It is expected that the import volume of South American lithium salt will remain high [4]. - **Cost**: The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [4]. 3.2 Demand - side - **Production and Sales of Batteries**: In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 49.0%. The total export was 22.3GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 64.2%. The sales volume was 118.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 73.5%. The overall production in June is expected to be flat month - on - month [5]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: The introduction of the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the sales growth of the Chinese new energy vehicle market [5]. 3.3 Inventory This week, the lithium carbonate inventory showed a build - up. The factory inventory decreased by 1142 tons to 33401 tons, the market inventory increased by 3409 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 427 tons [5]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion Given the situation of strong supply and weak demand that has not improved, it is recommended to short - sell when the price of lithium carbonate rebounds to a high level. It is also necessary to continuously monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode materials [5]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - **Lithium Carbonate Production and Inventory**: There are data on monthly and weekly production, as well as weekly inventory changes over multiple years [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Lithium Concentrate Price**: The average price of imported lithium concentrate (Li2O: 6% - 6.5%) is presented over a long - term time series [14][15]. - **Battery Production and Related Data**: Data on the production, export, and sales of power and other batteries, as well as the production and sales differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are provided [5][20][23]. - **Production of Lithium Carbonate from Different Raw Materials**: In April 2024, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium salt lakes accounted for 20.06%, from lithium mica 23.35%, and from lithium spodumene 44.61% [21][22]. - **Production of Cathode Materials**: There are data on the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials over multiple years [26][27][31]. - **Prices of Related Products**: The average prices of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial grade), lithium iron phosphate (power - type), and ternary materials (8 - series NCA type) are presented over different time periods [18][35][39]. - **Import Volume**: Data on the import volume of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene over multiple years are provided [37][41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.772 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 25.43% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 24.28%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -356 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.93% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 75.18%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was -242 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.72% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54.28% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross profit of 489 million yuan, which is a decrease of 115 million yuan quarter-on-quarter. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,800 yuan per ton (including tax), down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, while the average price of lithium concentrate was 834.4 USD per ton, up 5.8% quarter-on-quarter [10]. Resource Development - The company is entering a phase of accelerated resource release, with expectations for self-sufficiency to continue improving and production costs to decrease. The C-O salt lake is expected to produce 30,000-35,000 tons of LCE in 2025, with cost reductions anticipated through operational optimization. The Mali Goulamina lithium concentrate project is expected to contribute significantly starting from Q2 2025 [10]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of its own resources, with a focus on solid-state batteries and energy storage as new performance support points. As lithium prices stabilize, the long-term value of the company is expected to become more apparent [10].

碳酸锂周度报告 姓名：王竣冬 从业资格号：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 联系电话： 18366135881 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 周报摘要： 风险提示 行业政策变化、锂盐厂大规模检修减产、海外矿端变故 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 5月19日-5月23日当周，上游小幅扰动，但涉及量小，碳酸锂小幅冲高回落。截至5月23日收盘，主力合约报60960元/吨，现货报63050 元/吨。除成本下移外，基本面无更悲观变化，锂辉石矿价进一步下行拉低了锂价成本支撑，现货报价续创期货上市来新低，市场情绪仍 悲观，但有望随着原材料端的价格企稳而止跌。国内社会库存小幅下降，周产量减少。不断下行的价格增加了上游企业减、停产可能性， 近期需持续关注。主要交易逻辑 前期对等关税导致碳酸锂成品端未来需求被进一步限制，在国内面临新能源汽车旺季效应弱化、磷酸铁锂订单增速放缓、三元材料排产 下滑的现实状况时，对等关税对碳酸锂品种影响不明显；成品端对碳酸锂需求的指引，则更体 ...

供应压力较大，锂价弱势寻底 碳酸锂周报20250512 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端-3月锂辉石进口量环比小幅减少 锂精矿月度进口量 锂矿石进口结构 -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 2021-04-01 2021-06-01 2021-08-01 2021-10-01 2021-12-01 2022-02-01 2022-04-01 2022-06-01 2022-08-01 2022-10-01 2022-12-01 2023-02-01 2023-04-01 2023-06-01 2023-08-01 2023-10-01 2023-1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamental outlook for lithium carbonate remains bearish, with the potential for new lows in lithium prices. Although some smelters have cut or halted production due to the rapid decline in lithium prices, the marginal change in domestic supply is uncertain. Imported resources are expected to increase, and upstream production is expected to increase while costs decrease. There is no expected increase in demand, as the weak trend in terminal consumption is emerging, and the new replacement policy's ability to drive potential consumption is waning, which may suppress downstream purchasing power. The short - term decline in prices may be limited, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [3][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported and domestic lithium concentrates, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide all decreased. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB increased by 0.40%. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,807 tons (-2.97%). The price of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.75%, while the prices of cobalt - lithium oxide and ternary materials remained unchanged [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 36,351 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,820 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2507 was 289,400 lots. As of May 9, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,048 tons, a decrease of 128 tons from the previous period. Some hard - rock lithium extraction plants have cut or halted production, and the increase in production from the resumption of maintenance in May may be limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of salt - lake production [7] - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. The import volume from Chile was 12,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The import volume from Argentina was 4,646 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.3%. The increase in lithium salt shipped from Chile in March may push up the domestic supply scale in May. In March, the import volume of lithium ore was about 534,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8% [8][9] - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of May 9, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 63,442 tons, with an operating rate of 58.6% (a decrease of 1.14 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 37,620 tons (a decrease of 535 tons from the previous period). The production of ternary materials was about 14,555 tons, with an operating rate of 40.0% (a decrease of 5.84 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 13,930 tons (an increase of 205 tons from the previous period). The prices of ternary materials declined slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly. Although the cathode material production schedule in May continued to expand, the terminal consumption was weak, and the cathode materials still faced over - capacity pressure [9][10] - In the new energy vehicle market, from April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 52.3%. The new energy consumption growth rate showed a pulsed pattern, and the potential consumption driven by policies was waning. The growth rate may decline significantly in the future [11] - As of May 9, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 91,762 tons, a decrease of about 2,807 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased by 21 tons, and the market inventory decreased by 2,828 tons. The social inventory decreased, but downstream purchasing did not pick up, and there was still strong wait - and - see sentiment. If prices stabilize, downstream may have a strong restocking expectation [12] This Week's Outlook - The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and the bearish sentiment persists. Although the short - term decline may be limited due to the strong resistance around 63,000 yuan, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [13] Industry News - During the "May Day" holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 3 million. The sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased year - on - year. The service consumption continued to heat up [14] - On May 7, the General Office of the Guangdong Provincial People's Government issued a notice to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax vehicle purchase restrictions [14] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, imported lithium concentrates, and the production and supply structure of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related battery products [16][18][21][24][27]

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 13.1 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 68%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.9 billion, a year-on-year decline of 208% [1] - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 3 billion, down 58% quarter-on-quarter and 18% year-on-year, with a net profit of -2.2 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 175% and a year-on-year decline of 345% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.584 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.02%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 104 million, a year-on-year increase of 102.68% [1] Operational Developments - The company has expanded its lithium chemical product capacity to over 120,000 tons, with Greenbushes currently having a total lithium concentrate capacity of approximately 1.62 million tons per year [2] - In 2024, the company produced 1.41 million tons of lithium concentrate, including 1.353 million tons of chemical-grade lithium concentrate and 57,000 tons of technical-grade lithium concentrate [2] - The construction of key projects is progressing steadily, with the chemical-grade plant No. 3's dry processing facility completed, and the wet processing facility construction is set to advance in the first half of 2025 [2] Investment Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.768 billion, 3.176 billion, and 5.150 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 27, 15, and 9 times [3]

Summary of Tianqi Lithium's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium - **Industry**: Lithium Industry Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 104 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.68% [3] - The operating cash flow reached 952 million yuan, indicating robust cash flow performance [3] - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 44.42 million yuan [2][3] Factors Contributing to Performance Improvement - The improvement in performance is attributed to optimized supply chain management and a shortened lithium ore pricing cycle, which mitigated the impact of pricing mechanism mismatches [2][4] - The cost of chemical-grade lithium concentrate has approached the latest procurement prices due to new lithium spodumene purchases and inventory digestion [2][4] - The production capacity ramp-up and technological upgrades at self-owned factories contributed to a year-on-year increase in lithium compounds and derivatives production and sales [2][5] SQM Investment Impact - The tax dispute resolution with SQM has been confirmed for the 2024 fiscal year, with a positive impact on Tianqi's profits due to increased investment returns from SQM [2][6] Procurement and Pricing Strategy - The current procurement price for lithium ore from Talison is approximately 700 to 750 yuan, based on a weighted average of data from four pricing agencies [2][7] - Despite recent declines in lithium ore prices, Talison's cost advantages remain significant, with cash costs showing little change [2][8] Inventory and Sales Strategy - The average inventory cost has decreased to around 700 to 800 yuan, aligning with current market procurement prices [2][9] - The company employs a long-term sales strategy, maintaining good relationships with downstream customers and adjusting pricing based on market conditions [2][13][14] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The lithium industry is facing challenges due to lower prices, but domestic production remains stable, with Talison maintaining cost advantages [2][21] - The decline in lithium prices may accelerate market clearing, benefiting cost-advantaged companies [2][22] Future Production Expectations - Overall production is expected to increase steadily, with new projects anticipated to ramp up significantly by 2026 [2][18] - The first phase of the Kwinana project has seen some production improvements, but overall capacity utilization has not yet met expectations [2][19] Strategic Focus - The company continues to focus on strengthening upstream resources while maintaining a balanced approach across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations [2][31][33] - There is an emphasis on enhancing downstream strategies due to perceived weaknesses in that area over the past few years [2][33] Market Outlook - The company remains focused on long-term demand and industry growth, despite short-term price fluctuations influenced by external factors [2][34] - The company is prepared for potential futures trading but is waiting for favorable market conditions to proceed [2][24] Additional Notes - The company has no immediate plans for production maintenance during the Spring Festival, but regular safety inspections are conducted annually [2][35]

Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 需求指引偏平淡，锂价震荡偏弱 碳酸锂周报20250428 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端：本周国内碳酸锂产量环比减少488吨至16900吨，部分锂盐厂在4-6月检修，供应有少许减量。进口方面，据智利 海关，3月智利出口至中国碳酸锂规模为1.66万吨，环比增加38%，回升至均值水平。本周碳酸锂社会库存环比增加259吨 至13.19万吨，冶炼厂、下游及其他环节的库存分别为5.24万吨、4.28万吨和3.66万吨。冶炼厂和下游小幅累库，整体去 库压力较大。中长期维度，今年碳酸锂供应过剩的压力仍较大； 需求端：据调研，5月下游暂无大的需求增量，531抢装结束后，国内储能面临需求环比下滑的风险。终端市场方面，据乘 联分会4月1—20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比增长20%，环比下降 ...