Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that lithium carbonate will experience a relatively strong and volatile trend, and investors should pay attention to the sustainability of demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts are 75,700 and 75,780 respectively. The trading volumes are 366,375 and 303,602, and the open interests are 159,000 and 271,858 [2]. - **Basis Data**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract is -2,350, and between spot and 2601 contract is -2,430. The basis between 2511 and 2601 contracts is -80 [2]. - **Raw Material Data**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) are 846 and 1,825 respectively. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,350 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 73,349 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,350 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,100 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton [3]. - **Policy News**: Sichuan Province will optimize and adjust the 2025 subsidy policy for trading in old cars and electric bicycles. The subsidy policy for car scrapping and replacement in 2025 has been suspended since October 18, 2025 [4]. - **Company News**: From January to September 2025, Zangge Mining's lithium carbonate production was 6,021 tons, reaching 70.75% of the annual production target, and sales were 4,800 tons, completing 56.4% of the annual sales target. The company's photovoltaic power station construction contract for the Mamilcuo Salt Lake project has been signed, and the project plant construction is progressing as planned [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4].

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries announced that its lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, has successfully produced battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with all parameters meeting the required standards as of October 17, 2025 [1] Group 1: Project Development - The Zhangjiagang lithium hydroxide project has achieved the production of its first bag of battery-grade lithium hydroxide after repeated adjustments and optimizations [1] - The company plans to continue optimizing the project to ensure stable and continuous production of the product [1] Group 2: Future Plans - The company aims to achieve flexible switching between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate production in the future [1]

Group 1 - Tianqi Lithium Industries experienced a decline of 5.22% on October 14, with a stock price of 47.17 CNY per share and a trading volume of 3.076 billion CNY, resulting in a turnover rate of 4.26% and a total market capitalization of 77.416 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on October 16, 1995, and listed on August 31, 2010, is primarily engaged in the production and sales of lithium concentrate products and lithium compounds and their derivatives [1] - The revenue composition of Tianqi Lithium is as follows: lithium compounds and derivatives account for 50.54%, lithium ore for 49.25%, and other products for 0.21% [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Nuoan Fund holds a significant position in Tianqi Lithium [2] - The Nuoan Reform Trend Mixed Fund (001780) held 24,400 shares in the second quarter, unchanged from the previous period, representing 2.56% of the fund's net value and ranking as the sixth-largest holding [2] - The fund has a total scale of 30.4905 million CNY, with a year-to-date return of 14.71%, ranking 5248 out of 8162 in its category, and a one-year return of 10.32%, ranking 5835 out of 8015 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is affected by factors such as the suspension of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, the notice of re - examination of mining rights transfer in Yichun and Qinghai, and the reduction in the import of lithium concentrate in August 2025. The cost of some external lithium - ore - purchasing manufacturers is inverted, while self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises have certain profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5]. - On the demand side, the overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. The production, export, and sales of power and other batteries in August showed different trends, and policies are expected to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market. This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a slight destocking state [6]. - Before a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi, the domestic supply - demand remains in a tight balance. The terminal demand for energy storage is good, and the production schedule in October continues to grow. There are continuous risks with mining licenses, and lithium production from ore continues to increase under the background of profit repair, with the cost center rising. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and cautious trading is recommended. Attention should be paid to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Views Supply - side Situation - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's lithium carbonate production increased by 505 tons week - on - week to 22,439 tons, and the production in September increased by 3.3% month - on - month to 95,442 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine was confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai received notices of re - examination of mining rights transfer [5]. - In the first half of the year, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the space for further cost reduction is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditures for fiscal year 25. In August 2025, China imported 619,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 17.5%. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased by 50.5% month - on - month, that from Zimbabwe increased by 83.9% to 118,000 tons, that from Nigeria decreased by 9.5% to 105,000 tons, and the import from Mali increased by 73,000 tons. In August, 21,847 tons of lithium carbonate were imported, a month - on - month increase of 57.8%, with 15,608 tons from Chile, accounting for 71% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers producing lithium carbonate by purchasing external lithium ore faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - side Situation - The overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 37.3%. The total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% but a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 134.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.7% and a year - on - year increase of 45.6%. Policies such as the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market in China [6]. Inventory Situation - This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a slight destocking state. The inventory of lithium carbonate factories decreased by 905 tons, the market inventory decreased by 1,003 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 960 tons [6]. Strategy Recommendations - Before a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi, the domestic supply - demand remains in a tight balance. The terminal demand for energy storage is good, and the production schedule in October continues to grow. There are continuous risks with mining licenses, and lithium production from ore continues to increase under the background of profit repair, with the cost center rising. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and cautious trading is recommended. Attention should be paid to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot tax - inclusive average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium concentrate imports, average price of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial grade), production value of power batteries, production value of lithium iron phosphate power batteries, production - loading volume differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate, average production cost of lithium carbonate, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate, monthly production of ternary materials, monthly production of cobalt - acid lithium and manganese - acid lithium, import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium carbonate, market price of ternary material 8 - series NCA type, etc. These data cover the time span from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the long - term trends and changes in the lithium carbonate market [8][9][10][14][15][17][18][20][21][23][26][27][30][32][33][35][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. The price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72,820 - 75,020. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [9][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the persistently high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, a 0.75% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% month - on - month increase. The import volume in August 2025 was 21,847 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 10.74% month - on - month decrease [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 98,286 tons, a 2.15% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 17,896 tons, a 2.00% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 75,433 yuan/ton, a 0.02% daily increase, with a production loss of 2,953 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 78,729 yuan/ton, unchanged on a daily basis, with a production loss of 8,238 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.12% to 858 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.07% to 73,550 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The monthly production, import volume, and开工率 of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons; the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 21,847 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons [9][19]. - **Demand - side Data**: The demand for lithium - related products in the fields of lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, etc. showed an upward trend. For example, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries in August 2025 was 62,500 GWh, a 11.81% increase from the previous month; the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles also increased [19]. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with a 0.51% week - on - week decrease to 136,825 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased by 2.79% to 33,492 tons, while the downstream inventory increased by 2.35% to 60,893 tons [10].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - On September 29, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures opened low and moved high. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis changed from premium to discount. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, with little inventory pressure upstream. The expectation of lithium ore supply contraction has weakened, downstream inventory has peaked, and the demand peak may be approaching. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate at a low level. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach [1]. Summary by Relevant Information Futures Market - **Prices**: On September 29, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive first - month contract, consecutive second - month contract, and consecutive third - month contract of lithium carbonate futures were 73,760 yuan/ton, 73,920 yuan/ton, 73,900 yuan/ton, and 73,900 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,080 yuan/ton, 1,040 yuan/ton, 1,080 yuan/ton, and 1,080 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 465,591 lots (-15,429), and the open interest was 251,749 lots (+3,109) [1]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse inventory was 41,119 tons (+790) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive first - month contracts was - 160 yuan/ton (+40), the spread between the consecutive first - and second - month contracts was 20 yuan/ton (-40), and the spread between the consecutive second - and third - month contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0). The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 370 yuan/ton (-1,090) [1]. Spot Market - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 858 US dollars/ton (+1), the average prices of different grades of lithium mica remained unchanged, and the average prices of different grades of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained unchanged [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 73,550 yuan/ton (-50), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 71,300 yuan/ton (-50), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic, different types) decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95% domestic) increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 60,250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Battery Materials**: The average prices of various ternary precursors and materials increased, the average prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10 yuan/ton, the average price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/ domestic) increased by 16,000 yuan/ton to 276,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%/metal, ingot) increased by 13,500 yuan/ton to 323,500 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and Core Lithium terminated its off - take agreement with Ganfeng Lithium, which will release the full production capacity of its Finniss lithium project [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In September, the production schedules of cobalt acid lithium and lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries was basically flat last week. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 136,825 tons, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory and downstream sectors accumulating inventory [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Core View - On September 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. With both supply and demand strong, upstream inventory pressure is not significant, the expectation of supply contraction in lithium mines is weakening, downstream inventories have reached their peaks, and the peak demand may be approaching. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will oscillate at a low level. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - On September 26, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - two, consecutive - three, and consecutive - one contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 72,680 yuan/ton, 72,820 yuan/ton, 72,820 yuan/ton, and 72,880 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a downward trend compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 481,020 hands (+138,301), and the open interest was 248,460 hands (-12,501) [1] Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,400 yuan/ton, with a basis of 720 yuan/ton, rising from a discount. The prices of some lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene concentrate increased, while the prices of mica remained stable [1] Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased. Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in September, the production schedules of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries was basically flat last week. Terminal demand: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; 3C shipments were average; in September, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 40,329 tons (+20), and social inventory decreased. Inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, while downstream inventory tightened [1] Company News - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. announced that its 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project has entered the commissioning stage and produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products. Anson Resources signed a battery - grade lithium carbonate purchase agreement with LG Energy Solution, and its stock price rose nearly 25%. Longpan Times, a joint - venture company of CATL and Longpan Technology, stopped production on September 25 due to the suspension of raw material supply from CATL's Yichun mine [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures contracts showed a range-bound trend. The 2511 contract closed at 72,880 yuan/ton, down 1,080 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2601 contract closed at 72,820 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,600 yuan/ton [1]. - The supply of lithium ore increased, with the weekly output reaching a new high of 20,516 tons. The demand from the domestic energy storage market exceeded expectations, but the cathode materials maintained inventory accumulation. The weekly lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 136,800 tons, and the de-stocking speed slowed down for three consecutive weeks [2]. - In the future, it is expected that the price will maintain a range-bound trend. The de-stocking speed of lithium carbonate has slowed down, and the downstream inventory preparation for the National Day is almost over. However, the demand on the consumer electronics and energy storage sides is expected to remain strong [3]. - For single - sided trading, the price of the futures main contract is expected to run in the range of 70,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton. For cross - period trading, due to strong demand but increasing warehouse receipts, arbitrage is not recommended. For hedging, considering the significant price fluctuations caused by the change of lithium ore mining rights, it is recommended to increase the hedging ratio and use options for hedging [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The report presents various price data of lithium - related products, including the prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, electrolytes, positive electrode materials, and lithium batteries, as well as their week - on - week changes [9]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side (Lithium Ore) - The shipment volume of Australian lithium ore increased significantly, with 230,000/441,000 tons shipped in the first four weeks of August and September respectively. The price of lithium ore was firm but not significantly stronger [2]. - The weekly production of lithium carbonate reached a new high of 20,516 tons. The disk profit and spot profit weakened, but the spot price remained strong. The shipment volume of lithium salts from Chile was 25,600/27,400 tons in August and September [2]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - stream Consumption - Side (Lithium Salt Products) - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, production, inventory, and import - export volume of lithium carbonate, including battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, as well as the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate [10][11][12]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - The report shows the apparent consumption, inventory available days, monthly production, and monthly operating rates of lithium - battery - related products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of lithium batteries through multiple charts [15][16][17].

Group 1 - Tianqi Lithium's 30,000-ton battery-grade lithium hydroxide project has been completed, with a ceremony held on September 25 [1] - The project is located in the Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, specifically in the Jiangsu Yangtze River International Chemical Industrial Park [1] - This facility is Tianqi Lithium's second fully automated battery-grade lithium hydroxide (lithium carbonate) plant in Zhangjiagang [1]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with strong price resilience in the context of increasing supply and demand, but lacking a breakthrough driver [3] - The lithium carbonate market in September shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and it is expected to experience a period of tight supply [6] Group 2: Daily Market Summary Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes - **Main Contract and Basis**: On September 25, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day's 72,880 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened significantly from 620 yuan/ton on September 24 to - 540 yuan/ton [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: On September 25, the position of the main contract slightly expanded to 261,141 lots, an increase of 487 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume slightly shrank to 342,719 lots, a decrease of 2,502 lots from the previous day [1] Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: On September 19, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose to 71.31%, a 4.9 - percentage - point increase from 66.41% on September 12. The price of spodumene concentrate was stable at 6,390 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate remained at 3,400 yuan/ton. However, lithium ore imports decreased by 17.5% month - on - month in August, and future supply increments may be restricted by tight raw materials [2] - **Demand Side**: From September 1 to 21, new - energy vehicle retail sales reached 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose to 58,000 yuan/ton, and the price of power ternary materials increased to 120,750 yuan/ton. But pre - holiday stockpiling is nearing the end, and demand may decline after October [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: On September 19, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 137,531 physical tons, a reduction of 981 tons from 138,512 physical tons on September 12, indicating a tight balance between supply and demand [2] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On September 25, the lithium carbonate main contract was 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the basis was - 540 yuan/ton, down 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the main contract position was 261,141 lots, an increase of 487 lots from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 342,719 lots, a decrease of 2,502 lots from the previous day [5] - From September 19 to September 12, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 66.41% to 71.31%, and the inventory decreased from 138,512 physical tons to 137,531 physical tons [5] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Spot Market Quotes - On September 25, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,678 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market is in the peak demand season, pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream material factories is nearing the end, and market sentiment is turning cautious. In September, the market shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and there may be a period of tight supply [6] Downstream Consumption - From September 1 to 21, the retail sales of new - energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the penetration rate was 58.5%. The wholesale volume was 724,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the penetration rate was 55.4% [7] Industry News - On September 11, a "Lithium Belt in Asia" was discovered in China, spanning four provinces and regions [9] - On September 10, news of the potential restart of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine spread, and the company planned to restart production in November, but the outcome is uncertain [9]