Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Domestic downstream procurement is difficult to improve, and the spot discount continues to widen under rigid - demand procurement. The domestic and foreign contradiction pattern persists, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, but the overseas situation provides favorable price support. [4] Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $17.62/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,090 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 70 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,060 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 100 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,080 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On September 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,160 yuan/ton and closed at 22,215 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 83,724 lots, and the open interest was 103,054 lots. The highest price was 22,245 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,110 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of September 10, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 152,100 tons, a change of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 50,825 tons, a change of - 200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Domestic downstream procurement is difficult to improve, and the spot discount continues to widen. The domestic and foreign contradiction pattern persists, with overseas inventory decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with domestic TC slightly decreasing in September. The domestic smelting profit still exists, and the supply pressure is high. In August, zinc ingot production increased by 28% year - on - year. The overseas situation provides favorable price support, with a good macro - environment, supply contraction, and potential squeeze - out risk [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The rating for both unilateral and arbitrage strategies is neutral [6] 2. Core View - Domestic apparent consumption of zinc maintains high - speed growth but cannot offset supply pressure, leading to continuous expansion of social inventory. Zinc prices show a weak and volatile trend, with the spot discount widening. There is a contradictory situation between domestic and overseas markets, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are still weak, but overseas factors provide favorable price support [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $16.46 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,190 yuan per ton, with a change of 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 65 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,160 yuan per ton, with a change of 40 yuan per ton and a spot premium of - 95 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,170 yuan per ton, with a change of 40 yuan per ton and a spot premium of - 85 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On September 9, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22,245 yuan per ton and closed at 22,125 yuan per ton, a decrease of 120 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,465 lots, and the open interest was 108,199 lots. The highest price was 22,265 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,115 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 152,100 tons, a change of 3,200 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 51,025 tons, a change of - 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Domestic consumption growth is high - speed but can't counter supply pressure, resulting in continuous inventory build - up. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with domestic TC slightly decreasing in September but still having cost - effectiveness, and import TC expected to rise. Domestic smelting profit exists, and supply pressure is large, with an 28% year - on - year increase in zinc ingot production in August. In the consumption peak season, inventory build - up is likely. Overseas, the macro - environment is positive, zinc supply contracts, consumption is stable, inventory is decreasing, the discount is narrowing, and there is a risk of a short squeeze [5] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to inflation and consumer sentiment. Despite supply disruptions, overall supply is sufficient, and demand may show a "not-so-peak season" pattern. The price is expected to consolidate at a high level [2][3][5] - For alumina, the price is expected to remain weak as supply stays high, and the surplus will gradually be reflected in social inventory [12][13] - For electrolytic aluminum, the price may be supported by the expected rate cut and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and overseas project progress [16][20] - For casting aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The industry is affected by policy changes, and the supply is tightening [22][27][28] - For zinc, the price may be range-bound and bullish in the short term due to external support and the consumption season, despite the oversupply situation [33][35][36] - For lead, the price may rise slightly as smelter production cuts increase [40][41] - For nickel, the price may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to macro events and potential supply disruptions [44][45][46] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to follow the upward trend of nickel and show a strong oscillation [48][51][52] - For tin, the price may remain volatile as the demand peak season has not materialized [55][58][59] - For industrial silicon, the price may rebound in the short term due to supply - side reform expectations and increased demand from polysilicon [61][63][64] - For polysilicon, the price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high [67][68][69] - For lithium carbonate, the price may continue to decline in the short term and is waiting for a stabilization signal [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2510 closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, and the open interest increased. The spot market was weak due to high prices [2] - **Important Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary, a call from the German economic minister, a production cut at a Chilean mine, and other news [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro data strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply decreased in August and September, but imports increased. Consumption showed a weakening trend [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Consolidate at a high level for single - side trading. Consider cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage. Wait and see for options [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2510 rose 18 yuan to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price declined [7] - **Related Information**: Spot transactions, capacity operation, warehouse receipts, and production cuts due to environmental protection [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot market became more active, but the price is expected to fall. The overall supply is high, and warehouse receipts may increase [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2510 rose 50 yuan to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price increased [16] - **Related Information**: PMI data, inventory changes, and overseas project progress [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The expected rate cut and inventory trends are the focus. Overseas projects are progressing as planned [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2511 rose 25 yuan to 20,300 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price was stable in most regions [22] - **Related Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry, inventory changes, and import/export data [22][23][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes affect the industry, and the supply is tightening. The price may be stable and slightly bullish [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at a high level for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.59% to 22,325 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was average [31] - **Related Information**: Inventory increase and a production cut at a smelter [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is sufficient, but the refined zinc output may decrease in September. Demand may improve in the consumption season [33][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.06% to 16,850 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot market had low procurement enthusiasm [38] - **Related Information**: Implementation of a new electric bicycle standard [39] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and smelter production cuts are increasing. Demand remains weak [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise slightly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell 240 to 122,530 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot premium decreased [44] - **Related Information**: Unrest in Indonesia, new RKAB quota regulations, and project awards [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro events may increase price volatility. Although the unrest has not affected production, there are potential risks [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate strongly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of SS2510 rose 85 to 12,960 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price was stable [48] - **Important Information**: Rising nickel prices and global stainless - steel production data [51] - **Logic Analysis**: The price follows the upward trend of nickel. Inventory decreased slightly, and the consumption season may bring optimism [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Strong oscillation for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53] Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2510 rose 210 yuan/ton to 273,980 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was quiet [55] - **Related Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and a production cut at a smelter [56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance continues. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand is in the off - season [58] - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile for single - side trading. Wait and see for options [59][60] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose 1.13% to 8,470 yuan/ton. The spot price was mostly stable [61] - **Related Information**: A silicon - field standardization workshop will be held during the silicon industry conference [62] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The demand from the silicone industry may weaken, while that from polysilicon may increase. Supply is becoming more abundant. The price may rebound [63] - **Strategy**: May rebound in the short term for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. No options strategy [64] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of polysilicon rose 3.97% to 51,875 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable [67] - **Related Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices increased [68] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Although production may increase in September, sales restrictions and potential production cuts may drive the price up [68] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold call options [69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of the 2511 contract fell 3,260 to 72,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Porsche's business adjustment, a new battery factory, and a lithium sulfide project [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: Battery and cathode production is expected to increase in September, but supply may be affected. The price may continue to decline [73] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stabilization for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [74][75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Short allocation choice among non - ferrous metal varieties. [6] 2. Report's Core View - With the decline of the absolute price, downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly recovered, but supply remains abundant and social inventory continues to rise. The increase in import TC, sufficient raw material inventory of smelters, and high smelting profits maintain smelting enthusiasm, keeping supply pressure unchanged. Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains, and if the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face pressure. [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$7.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 140 yuan/ton to 22,130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -30 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,080 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 140 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 22,210 yuan/ton, closes at 22,170 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 156,406 lots, and the open interest is 114,628 lots. The highest price is 22,220 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 22,085 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 144,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory is 58,000 tons, a decrease of 2,025 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: As the absolute price drops, downstream procurement enthusiasm slightly recovers, and the spot discount also slightly recovers. However, supply is still sufficient, and social inventory continues to climb. [5] - **Cost**: Import TC continues to rise, with the common ore price reaching $110 per ton. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. [5] - **Smelting**: With by - product benefits, the industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton. The decline in zinc prices has little impact on smelting profit, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. [5] - **Consumption**: Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains. If the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face great pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: A short - position variety among non - ferrous metals. [6] 2. Core View - The current macro sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities show a strong trend. However, the zinc spot market is under pressure from increasing inventory, with a slight expansion of the spot discount. The smelting profit remains high, and the supply pressure persists. The domestic inventory build - up is expected even in the consumption peak season, and if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure, while the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5] 3. Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is - $2.95/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 40 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 65 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 60 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,355 yuan/ton, closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 93,174 lots, and the open interest was 108,718 lots. The highest price was 22,395 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 26, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 138,500 tons, a change of 5,600 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 65,525 tons, a change of - 2,550 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - **Macro and Spot**: The current macro sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities are strong. In the zinc spot market, due to continuous inventory increase, the spot discount slightly expands, and traders have difficulty maintaining prices, with weak downstream purchasing sentiment. [5] - **Cost**: The import TC is rising, with the general ore quote reaching $110/ton. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. [5] - **Smelting**: With by - product revenue, the industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton. Zinc price decline has little impact on smelting profit, and smelting enthusiasm remains high, with unchanged current and expected supply - side pressure. [5] - **Consumption**: Even during the consumption peak season, the domestic inventory build - up is expected. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View - The absolute price of zinc continues to decline, and the spot market is difficult to improve. Although the spot discount remains stable, the trading is still sluggish. The transportation in the Tianjin market is affected by the parade and the SCO meeting, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is relatively good. The import TC is still rising, the smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The smelting profit of the industry remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm remains. The current pressure on the supply side and the expected future pressure remain unchanged. The consumption is strong in the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged, and if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, the zinc price will face greater pressure [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$8.65/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -100 yuan/ton to 22,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is -110 yuan/ton to 22,170 yuan/ton, with a premium of -85 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is -110 yuan/ton to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a premium of -60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On August 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,320 yuan/ton, closed at 22,205 yuan/ton, -190 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,478 lots, and the open interest was 105,576 lots. The highest price was 22,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,180 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 135,400 tons, a change of 6,300 tons compared with the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 72,200 tons, a change of -3,650 tons compared with the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Cost**: Import TC is rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventory with an upward trend [4] - **Smelting**: The industry smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm remains, with unchanged supply - side pressure [4] - **Consumption**: The consumption is strong in the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, the zinc price will face pressure [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish. Zinc price may be relatively weak when other non - ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention [5] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The decline in the absolute price center has not stimulated the improvement of the spot market, and downstream buyers remain on the sidelines. The discount in the Guangdong region has further widened. The import TC is still rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventories. The overall upward trend remains unchanged. The smelting profit of the industry remains above 1,000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm persists. The consumption off-season remains strong and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the consumption peak season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$5.22/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, with a premium of -90 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, with a premium of -60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,410 yuan/ton and closed at 22,340 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 80,217 lots, and the open interest was 69,630 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,445 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,310 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 135,400 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 75,850 tons, a decrease of 475 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - The decline in zinc prices has not improved the spot market, and downstream buyers remain on the sidelines. The import TC is rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventories. The smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm persists. The consumption off-season remains strong and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the consumption peak season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies have a positive impact on the market. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market news [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views Copper - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. Short - term, the Shanghai copper is predicted to operate in the range of 78300 - 79500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading or stay on the sidelines [3]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is in an upward trend with shock adjustments. It is recommended to take the opportunity to place long orders for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading [3]. Lead - The lead price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 16500 - 17200 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel - In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to moderately hold short positions at high prices for nickel, with the main contract operating in the range of 120000 - 124000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, range trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The tin price is expected to oscillate within the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading and continue to monitor supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Due to various market rumors, the risks in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are relatively high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium price is expected to continue its strong trend. It is recommended to trade cautiously and continue to monitor upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.2 Metal Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the global inventory of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, the global copper inventory increased by 1.27% week - on - week, the global aluminum inventory decreased by 1.38% week - on - week, and the global zinc inventory increased by 8.38% week - on - week [9]. 3.3 Macro Hotspots 3.3.1 Current Week's Macro Data - From August 11 - 17, a series of macro - economic data were released. For example, the eurozone's August ZEW economic sentiment index was 25.1, the US July core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and China's July M2 money supply year - on - year was 8.8% [13]. 3.3.2 Sino - US Trade and Financial Data - Since August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff has been suspended for 90 days again. In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales in July slowed down to 3.7%, and the real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year [14][15][16][17]. 3.3.3 US Economic Data - In July, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since February. The US July PPI year - on - year soared from 2.3% to 3.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.9%, a three - year high. The US July customs tariff revenue reached 28 billion US dollars, a record high, but the fiscal deficit still expanded [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Next Week's Macro Data Calendar - From August 18 - 24, important macro - economic data such as the US July new housing starts month - on - month, China's August LPR, and the eurozone's July core harmonized CPI year - on - year final value are scheduled to be released [22]. 3.4 Market Trends and Key Data Tracking - For each metal, the report provides market trend charts (monthly, daily, quarterly lines) and key data tracking, including inventory, spot premium and discount, institutional positions, etc. For example, for copper, it shows the Shanghai copper main contract's monthly line, daily line, and LME copper's relevant data [26][27][28][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with an unchanged fundamental surplus. However, LME inventories are continuously decreasing, and domestic bullish sentiment is strong, making it difficult for zinc prices to decline rapidly. Considering that the rebound in zinc prices suppresses the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers and the hedging pressure after the rise in zinc prices, the strategy is still to short on rallies, with an operating range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.76% to 22,400 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price rose 0.87% to 22,515 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 3.83% to 2,834 US dollars/ton [12]. 2. Raw Material Side 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate port inventories continued to decline. As of August 8, Lianyungang imported zinc ore inventory was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; the total inventory of 7 ports was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,000 tons [23][25]. - Zinc concentrate profits recovered with the rise in zinc prices. As of August 7, zinc concentrate enterprise production profit was 4,052 yuan/metal ton. In June, zinc concentrate imports were 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%; from January to June, cumulative imports were 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74% [26][32]. - Import TC continued to increase. As of August 8, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index was 82.25 US dollars/dry ton [33][35]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - Refined zinc enterprise production profits continued to improve. As of August 7, refined zinc enterprise production profit was - 112 yuan/ton. In July, domestic refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,700 tons, and it is expected to reach about 620,000 tons in August [36][41]. - The Shanghai - London ratio declined, and the import window was closed. As of August 8, refined zinc import profit was - 1,753.52 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons [42][44]. 3. Demand Side 3.1 Galvanizing - Galvanizing开工率 increased by 0.58 percentage points to 57.35%. Some previously减产 enterprises recovered, driving a slight increase in开工. Terminal market orders were weak, with only tower orders being acceptable, and export orders were weakened due to tariffs [48][50]. - Galvanizing raw material inventories increased. At the beginning of the week, zinc prices were weak, and galvanizing enterprises replenished stocks at low prices. As zinc prices rebounded, purchasing sentiment weakened, and raw material inventories slightly increased. Galvanizing finished product inventories increased due to increased开工 and average orders [51][53]. 3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - Zinc alloy prices rebounded. Zamak3 zinc alloy average price rose 0.74% to 23,095 yuan/ton, and Zamak5 zinc alloy average price rose 0.72% to 23,645 yuan/ton [58][60]. - Die - casting zinc alloy开工率 increased by 0.18 percentage points to 48.42%. Some enterprises resumed production, driving an overall increase in production. Terminal demand showed no obvious improvement, and if shipments remained weak, enterprise开工 might decline [61][63]. - Die - casting zinc alloy raw material inventories decreased due to high zinc prices and strong purchasing pressure. Finished product inventories increased slightly [64][67]. 3.3 Zinc Oxide - Zinc oxide prices rebounded. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% increased by 0.94% to 21,500 yuan/ton [69]. - Zinc oxide enterprise开工率 decreased by 0.45 percentage points to 55.68%. It was in the off - season, and开工 fluctuated slightly. Terminal rubber - grade orders did not improve, ceramic - grade demand weakened, and electronic - grade orders were acceptable due to grid support [70][72]. - Zinc oxide raw material inventories decreased as enterprises mainly made rigid purchases due to rising zinc prices. Finished product inventories increased [73][75]. 4. Inventory - Shanghai zinc social inventories continued to increase. As of August 7, SMM zinc ingot three - place inventories were 113,200 tons, and the bonded area inventory was 7,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons [78][80]. - SHFE inventories increased. As of August 8, SHFE inventory was 65,900 tons. LME inventories decreased. As of August 7, LME inventory was 81,500 tons [81][83]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows that the market has experienced both supply surpluses and shortages in different months in 2024 - 2025 [89].

Report Information - Report Title: "Accumulation of Inventory Continues, Macroeconomic Factors Affect Prices" - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Jundong - Company: Zhongtai Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The LME zinc price has risen due to the weakening of the US dollar and the warming of China's macro - economy, and the domestic zinc inventory is increasing [6][47] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The LME zinc price has increased under the influence of a weaker US dollar and positive trends in China's macro - economy [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Multiple charts show the historical data of LME and SHFE zinc inventory and warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [9] 2. Raw Material End - **Processing Fees**: The supply of zinc concentrate in the market is becoming looser, and the domestic concentrate processing fee (TC) remains stable at 3900 yuan/metal ton [14] - **Zinc Concentrate开工率**: Charts present the historical data of zinc concentrate new sample开工率, large - scale, small - scale and medium - scale mine开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [17] - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: Charts show the historical data of global zinc concentrate monthly output, SMM zinc concentrate new sample output, zinc concentrate monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [19] - **Refined Zinc Monthly Output**: Charts display the historical data of SMM zinc ingot monthly output and its predicted value from 2020 - 2025 [22] - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for raw material procurement [23] 3. Smelting End - **Refined Zinc Import**: Charts show the historical data of refined zinc monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [28] - **Refined Zinc开工**: The profit margin of smelters is continuously expanding, benefiting from the increase in TC and the increase in by - product sulfuric acid revenue, and the smelting profit has improved significantly compared with the previous period [29] - **Refined Zinc Output**: Some enterprises have resumed production after maintenance, and the overall开工率 has increased due to the improved processing economy of imported ores [32] 4. Demand End - **Refined Zinc Export**: Charts show the historical data of China's refined zinc monthly export volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [37] - **Downstream Inventory**: Charts present the historical data of SMM downstream zinc processing material enterprise monthly raw material inventory, smelter zinc alloy monthly finished product inventory, smelter zinc ingot monthly finished product inventory, smelter monthly finished product inventory days and SMM refined zinc smelter monthly finished product inventory from 2020 - 2025 [39] - **Downstream Output and开工率**: July - August is the traditional consumption off - season, and terminal orders are weak. Charts show the historical data of SMM galvanized weekly output, SMM galvanized weekly开工率, SMM die - casting weekly output, SMM die - casting weekly开工率, SMM zinc oxide weekly output and SMM zinc oxide weekly开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [41][42] - **Product Prices**: Charts show the historical data of Zamak5 zinc alloy average price, Zamak3 zinc alloy average price, zinc oxide ≥99.7% average price and hot - dip galvanized national average price from 2020 - 2025 [43] 5. Zinc Inventory - As of August 7, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 113,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared with July 31 and an increase of 5,900 tons compared with August 4, indicating an increase in domestic inventory [47] - Charts show the historical data of SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin three - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM zinc ingot bonded area weekly inventory, SMM refined zinc smelter sample enterprise weekly finished product inventory (factory warehouse inventory and in - transit inventory) from 2020 - 2025 [48]