Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current time point is at the intersection of two five-year periods, closer to the transition between the fourth and fifth years, with expectations of structural upward marginal EPS after 2025, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][8] - The supply side is expected to experience an expansion period from the end of 2023 to the end of 2026, while the demand side will see a "filling gaps" demand expansion period from 2025 to 2026, characterized by more consumable equipment and a pulse-like rather than growth-type opportunity [2][26] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is anticipated to be a critical five years for global development, with military trade demand becoming a significant variable due to changes in international geopolitical strategies [2][26] Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Cycle Position - The industry is currently in a mid-cycle phase, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" nearing its end, leading to expectations of structural upward movement in EPS and PE due to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [8][9] Section 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply side is projected to expand from late 2023 to late 2026, while the demand side will focus on "filling gaps" and "creating revenue" as core themes for the next five years [15][26] - The demand for military equipment is expected to be more pulse-like, with a balance point in civilian demand anticipated around 2027, supporting price declines [2][26] Section 3: Investment Strategy - Investment strategies are categorized into "filling gaps" and "creating revenue," focusing on completed and pending equipment from the "14th Five-Year Plan," as well as military trade and civilian sectors [29] - Specific attention is given to small-cap stocks in the aftermarket for completed equipment and larger-cap stocks for potential opportunities following event-driven declines [29]

Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance in June, with military-themed funds achieving significant gains, driven by a fundamental shift in the industry’s business environment [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - Military-themed active equity funds (Class A shares) recorded an average monthly increase of 7.31% as of June 30, significantly outperforming mainstream stock indices [1]. - The top 10 military funds all surpassed an 11% increase, with the top performer, China Europe High-end Equipment A, achieving a remarkable 20.19% monthly gain [2]. - Key to the success of these funds is the deep exploration of core assets, with leading funds holding shares in major military enterprises benefiting from domestic military equipment upgrades and increased military trade exports [2]. Group 2: Industry Fundamentals - The military industry is showing signs of recovery, with improved order volumes in the first quarter of 2025, particularly in missile, aviation engine, military communication equipment, and unmanned systems sectors [2]. - Companies like Aerospace Electric and Zhenhua Technology are positioned well within the missile supply chain, experiencing a notable recovery in orders [2]. - The military sector's theoretical growth potential is significant, with estimates suggesting a minimum of 100% growth and a maximum of 300% by 2025, as indicated by the cyclical nature of military planning [3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The military industry has made significant technological breakthroughs, enhancing market confidence in its capabilities [4]. - The production capacity of the Wenchang Satellite Super Factory is set to reach 1,000 satellites annually, which will lower manufacturing costs and benefit companies in satellite communication and navigation [4]. - Despite the military sector's current high valuation, its scarcity and defensive attributes make it a focal point for capital allocation [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes, there is an expectation for a concentrated release of orders, which will drive performance recovery in the military sector [5]. - The initiation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to provide new growth expectations, supported by increased military trade exports and advancements in national defense modernization [5]. - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese War of Resistance against Japan is expected to catalyze interest in the military sector [5]. Group 5: Policy and Geopolitical Factors - Recent policies, such as the Military Scientific Research Reward Regulations, are aimed at incentivizing military technological innovation, particularly in critical areas like aviation engines [6]. - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts is likely to sustain demand for military equipment, reflecting a market reassessment of the value of air superiority assets [6]. - The military sector's fundamentals remain strong, with a positive outlook for core military companies' performance, although caution is advised regarding potential geopolitical fluctuations [6].

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term, with a high likelihood of a fluctuating upward pattern for the index [2][9][10] - Recent trading volume has been around 1.5 trillion, reflecting active market participation and potential for individual stock profitability to expand [4][10] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment lines are highlighted: 1. Focus on companies with better-than-expected mid-year performance as the reporting window opens in July, suggesting a strategy of buying low [3][10] 2. Emphasis on technology sectors such as military industry, robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a caution to avoid overvalued stocks and speculative plays [3][10] 3. Look for rebound opportunities in sectors like new energy and brokerage firms during market pullbacks [3][10] Sector Analysis - The pharmaceutical sector saw a collective rise, driven by new measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission to support high-quality development of innovative drugs [6][10] - Bank stocks rebounded after a period of decline, supported by their low valuation and high dividend yield, although there are concerns about the impact of economic slowdown on credit demand and interest income [7][10] - The report notes a significant rise in brain-computer interface stocks, particularly following advancements from Neuralink, although it cautions that this may still be in the speculative phase [8][10]

军工股震荡走低 内蒙一机午后跌停 智通财经7月2日电，军工股午后震荡走低，内蒙一机跌停，北方长龙、长城军工、建设工业、晨曦航 空、中兵红箭、北方导航、中天火箭等多股跌超5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Defense has awarded Lockheed Martin Rotary and Mission Systems a contract worth approximately $3 billion to develop upgrades for the Aegis missile defense system [1] Group 1: Contract Details - The contract is specifically for the development of computer solutions for the Aegis missile defense system [1] - The scope includes research and development of upgrades for all operational phases of the ballistic missile defense system, including planning, detection, control, interception, and assessment [1] - The contract is effective from July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2035, with engineering work to be conducted in Moorestown, New Jersey [1]

Market Overview - A-shares have resumed an upward trend after a period of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through March highs and reaching new recent closing highs [1] - The market sentiment regarding trade conflicts has eased, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is viewed as a short-term emotional impact [1] - The low interest rate environment and rising risk appetite are supporting the A-share market's return to a slow upward trajectory [1] Sector Analysis - The innovation drug and banking sectors, which were previously popular, have resumed their upward trends after short-term adjustments [2] - The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are experiencing rebounds, indicating a high-low switch among sectors as the market remains event-driven [2] - Consumer expansion and domestic demand are key tasks for 2025, with expectations for policy support in sectors like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2] - The semiconductor industry is moving towards localization, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [2] - The innovation drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [2] Trading Activity - A-shares experienced some intraday fluctuations but maintained an upward trend, with trading volume remaining stable and no signs of panic selling [3] - Leading sectors included pharmaceuticals, banking, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, and building materials, while sectors like computers, retail, communications, and power equipment saw declines [3]

兴业基金权益投资部总经理邹慧表示，下半年的投资主线预计还是稳定类资产和成长类科技资产。看好 交运、消费、出版、游戏、有色等ROE高且分红率稳定的板块。成长类资产主要关注军工、医药、通 信、游戏等方向。 信澳领先增长基金经理齐兴方认为，当前市场流动性宽松，对科技、成长风格行情形成直接助力。推荐 具有核心技术壁垒及海外渠道建设能力的优势制造企业。 平安医药精选股票基金经理周思聪表示，下半年投资主线预计还是成长风格继续占优。优质的科技资 产、新兴消费行业都值得关注。在科技领域，AI算力、智能驾驶等细分领域或成为投资主线；在医药 领域，创新药有望成为核心主线。 A股上半年三大指数集体收涨。展望下半年行情，多数机构对A股后续走势较为乐观，预计A股下半年 将呈现"先震荡、后向上"格局，市场结构性机会突出。科技成长（如AI、创新药）与红利资产被集中看 好，有望成为下半年核心配置方向。 中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛判断，A股下半年预计将"先震荡，后向上"。下半年的弱美元趋势、 资本市场政策支持和流动性环境整体性改善有望推动A股震荡中枢持续上移，全球基本面超预期改善、 国内增量政策落地和新兴产业发展则有望成为市场向上的关键催 ...

美国防部暂停向乌克兰提供部分承诺的军火 智通财经7月2日电，据央视新闻报道，因担心美国武器库存过低，美国国防部已停止向乌克兰运送部分 防空导弹和其他精确制导武器。知情人士透露称，美国炮弹、防空导弹和精确制导武器的总量正在减 少。暂停向乌克兰提供部分援助的最初决定是在6月初做出的，但直到现在才生效。 ...

Group 1 - The Nordic telecom service sector is experiencing a decline [1] - Saab AB shares fell by 6.8%, leading the decline among component stocks [1] Group 2 - Saab AB latest price is 491.6, with a previous close of 527.6 [2] - Other notable companies in the defense sector include ThyssenKrupp, Thales, Leonardo, and Rheinmetall, with varying price movements [2]

内资何时挺起了自己的脊梁骨？ 是的，A股这一次突破3400真的不一样了。哪里不一样呢？以下几点： 7月1日，A股开门红，港股今天休市，等于说A股自己在盘中下跌，走出V型反转。 1、成交量上了一个台阶。从过去的1.2万亿上下，到如今的1.5万亿左右，今天缺少北向资金的情况下，依旧有1.49万亿，对比上个交易日仅仅少了207 亿。 增量资金来自三个方面； GJD，据不完全统计，今年截止到现在至少净流入3500亿。 2、板块效应。前有诺德7连板带动固态板块，今有长城jun工10天8板带动军工板块。调整三周的医药今天也开始动了，下一个是不是要轮到新消费了？科 技股近期也开始异动，尽管最近稳定币不稳定了，不代表行情结束。 板块里面无论是个股的高度，还是持续性，都比过去好的多。 3、美元指数继续新低当中 险资，2025年险资举牌了19次，涉及16家上市公司，其中举牌港股13次。 量化，5月份证券类私募基金新增备案880只，共计募集规模438.91亿。虽说近期百亿量化私募封盘，但是抵挡不住资金的热忱。 这意味着中美利差在进一步的缩小。这些潜在的利好，说实话A股其实并未完全定价。 7月份是中报公布的日子，一般前面阶段先公布的 ...