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广发期货《有色》日报-20250422
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-22 05:12
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Tin - Supply side is gradually recovering, with smelter processing fees at a low level, and the supply pressure of tin ore has been alleviated to some extent. However, the US tariff still has room for fermentation. - Demand side has great uncertainty, although the solder开工率 has improved under the boost of domestic policies, mainly concentrated in leading enterprises, and the order improvement of small and medium - sized enterprises is limited. - It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions at high levels and take a short - selling approach on rebounds. Follow up on the production dynamics of tin mines in Myanmar [1]. Nickel - Macro - level: The impact of US tariff policies has been gradually digested, but policy uncertainty still exists. - Industry - level: The spot price of refined nickel has declined slightly, and the spot premium of various brands has mostly remained stable. The new policy on the royalty of nickel products in Indonesia is about to be implemented, which may increase the comprehensive cost of nickel mines. - Nickel iron prices are under pressure, and the profit of the nickel sulfate industry needs to be repaired. - Overall, the short - term macro situation is stable, but there is still uncertainty. The cost provides support at the bottom, but the medium - term supply is loose, so it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract running between 122,000 - 128,000 [2]. Stainless Steel - Macro: The impact of US tariff policies has been digested, but there is still uncertainty. - Industry: The price of nickel ore is relatively firm, but the price of nickel iron has declined. The supply is relatively loose in the short term, domestic demand has certain resilience but recovers slowly, and export demand is blocked. - Inventory pressure has been slightly relieved. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 12,600 - 13,000 [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The market has basically digested the previous macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals lack positive factors. - The supply pressure is obvious, although the supply increase in April is expected to slow down marginally. - Demand is generally stable, but there is a risk of a decline in energy - storage export orders due to tariff policies. - Inventory is relatively high, and the pressure may increase with the rapid registration of warehouse receipts. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 68,000 - 72,000 [6]. Zinc - Supply side: The trend of a loose ore end remains unchanged. Pay attention to the increase in TC and the expansion speed of refined zinc production. If the TC growth rate exceeds the theoretical expectation, it indicates that the looseness of the ore end is smoothly transmitted to the refined zinc end, and the overall industrial chain supply will be loose. - Demand side: After the peak season, orders and the start - up rate have weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly maintain rigid procurement, with general spot trading performance. - In the context of the US equivalent tariff policy, the demand side faces certain pressure. In a pessimistic scenario, the zinc price may decline; in an optimistic scenario, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach for medium - to - long - term layout, and focus on the growth rate of zinc ore production and the rhythm of tariff policies, with the main contract paying attention to the support level of 20,500 - 21,500 [9]. Alumina - Supply side: The operating capacity of alumina remains at a high level, but the situation of production cuts due to losses has increased recently. Coupled with the potential supply risk of the Guinea ore end, there is support for the short - term price decline. - Demand side: The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity operates at a high level, the overall demand is stable with limited growth, the export window of domestic alumina is closed, and export demand has decreased. - Overall, short - term production cuts provide short - term support for the price, but the price is close to the cost. Pay attention to the dynamic changes in cost and the supply - side changes, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Aluminum - Supply side: The electrolytic aluminum capacity operates stably, and the复产 capacity in the Sichuan - Chongqing area has fully resumed production with limited subsequent growth. - Demand side: The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has returned to normal, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances maintain a seasonally prosperous level under the boost of domestic demand policies, but the peak season is coming to an end, and there is an expectation of marginal weakening in demand. - Inventory: Both LME and domestic social inventories are decreasing, and the low inventory provides support for the price. - Overall, the short - term fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are good, but the tariff policy game suppresses the demand expectation and intensifies price fluctuations. It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract running between 19,000 - 21,000 [11]. Copper - Macro: The equivalent tariff is the core variable for asset pricing. Pay attention to the progress of tariff negotiations. The US "232" investigation on copper provides certain support for copper prices before a clear result is announced. - Fundamentals: The demand side is strong, with high copper rod start - up rates and inventory reduction. However, after the implementation of the US tariff policy, there is an expectation of weakening demand. - Overall, the copper market presents a combination of "strong reality + weak expectation". The strong fundamentals limit the decline of copper prices, while the weak demand expectation restricts the upward space. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract paying attention to the pressure level of 76,000 - 77,000 [12]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1,01% to 259,700 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 13.04% to 1,000 yuan/ton. - The import loss decreased by 13.38% to - 7,068.36 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.27 [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by 600.00%, 340.00%, 18.18%, and - 29.63% respectively [1]. Fundamental Data - In March, the import of tin ore decreased by 4.83% to 8,323 tons, the production of refined tin increased by 7.33% to 15,080 tons, the import volume of refined tin increased by 12.41% to 2,101 tons, and the export volume decreased by 29.50% to 1,673 tons. - The average start - up rate of SMM refined tin in March was 62.60%, an increase of 7.38% [1]. Inventory - SHEF inventory decreased by 7.77% to 9,571 tons, social inventory decreased by 10.09% to 10,485 tons, SHEF warehouse receipts decreased by 0.30% to 9,183 tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.18% to 2,850 tons [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.31% to 126,900 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 4.26% to 2,450 yuan/ton. - The import loss of refined nickel decreased by 1.78% to - 3,469 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.01 [2]. Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte increased by 1.85% and 2.47% respectively, while the cost of producing from externally - purchased raw materials mostly decreased slightly [2]. New Energy Material Prices - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.84% to 70,850 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 28,050 yuan/ton [2]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by - 120 yuan/ton, + 130 yuan/ton, and - 180 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 5.69% to 28,320 tons, and the import volume increased by 99.27% to 18,897 tons. - SHFE inventory decreased by 8.00% to 30,594 tons, social inventory decreased by 5.87% to 43,308 tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.96% to 204,528 tons [2]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained stable or decreased slightly, and the spot - futures spread decreased by 1.85% to 530 yuan/ton [4]. Raw Material Prices - The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore remained unchanged at 61 US dollars/wet ton, and the price of 8 - 12% high - grade nickel pig iron decreased by 0.15% to 984 yuan/nickel point [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by + 5 yuan/ton, + 5 yuan/ton, and - 5 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesia's production decreased by 6.67% to 42.00 million tons. - Stainless steel imports decreased by 19.45% to 12.89 million tons, and exports increased by 70.98% to 47.06 million tons [4]. Inventory - The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 1.33% to 55.83 million tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.87% to 17.65 million tons [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.84% to 70,850 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 346.67% to 670 yuan/ton [6]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, and 2505 - 2512 contracts changed by 0 yuan/ton, - 80 yuan/ton, and - 220 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Fundamental Data - In March, lithium carbonate production increased by 23.44% to 79,065 tons, demand increased by 15.07% to 87,002 tons, imports in February increased by 47.03% to 18,125 tons, and exports decreased by 47.25% to 220 tons. - In April, the production capacity increased by 1.52% to 133,522 tons, and the start - up rate increased by 20.00% to 54% [6]. Inventory - In March, the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 16.79% to 90,070 tons, downstream inventory increased by 27.94% to 39,293 tons, and smelter inventory increased by 9.40% to 50,777 tons [6]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.49% to 22,540 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton. - The import loss decreased by 86 yuan/ton to - 173 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.57 [9]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by - 30 yuan/ton, + 20 yuan/ton, + 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [9]. Fundamental Data - In March, refined zinc production increased by 13.70% to 54.69 million tons, imports decreased by 15.27% to 3.37 million tons, and exports decreased by 91.04% to 0.04 million tons. - The start - up rates of galvanizing, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 64.34%, 58.39%, and 60.79% respectively. - China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 11.93% to 9.30 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 2.52% to 19.5 million tons [9]. Alumina and Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.40% to 19,910 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. - The average price of alumina in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,840 yuan/ton, while the price in Shanxi increased by 0.35% to 2,880 yuan/ton. - The import loss of aluminum decreased by 25.6 yuan/ton to - 1,059 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.30. - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by - 10 yuan/ton, - 5 yuan/ton, + 5 yuan/ton, and + 10 yuan/ton respectively [11]. Fundamental Data - In March, alumina production increased by 8.85% to 754.90 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 11.22% to 371.42 million tons. - The start - up rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates, and strips were 58.50%, 63.60%, 68.00%, and 73.00% respectively [11]. Inventory - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 7.04% to 67.30 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.65% to 43.4 million tons [11]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.31% to 76,550 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 45 yuan/ton to 175 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap copper price difference increased by 50.76% to 1,273 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 118.72 yuan/ton to - 206 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.34 [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, and 2507 - 2508 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and 90 yuan/ton respectively [12]. Fundamental Data - In March, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.04% to 112.21 million tons, and imports increased by 15.24% to 30.88 million tons. - The start - up rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 3.31% to 78.07%, and the start - up rate of recycled copper rod production decreased by 1.06% to 29.82%. - Domestic social inventory decreased by 21.56% to 19.65 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 6.19% to 17.16 million tons [12
国际铜夜盘收涨0.13%,沪铜收涨0.41%,沪铝收涨0.20%,沪锌收涨0.27%,沪铅收涨0.09%,沪镍收跌0.18%,沪锡收跌0.40%。氧化铝夜盘收涨0.35%。不锈钢夜盘收平。
news flash· 2025-04-21 17:05
Group 1 - International copper futures rose by 0.13% in the night session, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.41% [1] - Shanghai aluminum saw an increase of 0.20%, and Shanghai zinc rose by 0.27% [1] - Shanghai lead experienced a slight increase of 0.09%, whereas Shanghai nickel declined by 0.18% [1] Group 2 - Shanghai tin recorded a decrease of 0.40%, while alumina futures rose by 0.35% in the night session [1] - Stainless steel futures remained stable during the night session [1]
20250421申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250421
| | 20250421申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜: 短期可能宽幅波动 | | | | 锌: 可能宽幅区间波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝: 可能短期震荡偏弱 | | | | 镍: 可能宽幅震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | 铜 | 铜:周末夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价 ,考验冶炼产 量。根据国家统计局数据来看,国内下游需求总体稳定向好,电网带动电力 投资高增长,家电产量延续增长,需关注出口变化,新能源渗透率提升有望 巩固汽车铜需求,地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动,关注美国关 | 短期可能宽 幅波动 | | | 税谈判进展,以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌:周末夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 看,国内汽车产销正增长,基建稳定增长,家电表现良好,地产数据降幅缩 | 可能宽幅区 | | 锌 | 窄。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善,冶炼供应可能恢复,前期锌价的回落 已部分消化产量增长预期。短期锌价可能宽幅波动,关注美国关税谈判进 | 间波动 | | | 展,以及美 ...
永茂泰:2024年报净利润0.38亿 同比增长22.58%
Tong Hua Shun Cai Bao· 2025-04-18 09:45
一、主要会计数据和财务指标 | 报告期指标 | 2024年年报 | 2023年年报 | 本年比上年增减(%) | 2022年年报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益(元) | 0.1100 | 0.0900 | 22.22 | 0.2900 | | 每股净资产(元) | 6.37 | 6.37 | 0 | 8.17 | | 每股公积金(元) | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 3.56 | | 每股未分配利润(元) | 2.78 | 2.68 | 3.73 | 3.40 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | - | - | - | - | | 营业收入(亿元) | 41 | 35.36 | 15.95 | 35.34 | | 净利润(亿元) | 0.38 | 0.31 | 22.58 | 0.94 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 1.79 | 1.48 | 20.95 | 4.62 | 数据四舍五入,查看更多财务数据>> 前十大流通股东累计持有: 17232.94万股,累计占流通股比: 52.23%,较上期变化: 354.02万股。 | 名称 | 持有数量(万股) ...
中辉有色观点-20250418
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-04-18 02:09
中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 短期调整不改黄金强势逻辑。G2 大国多方面博弈剧烈,特朗普要求鲍威尔下 | | 黄金 | 强势 | 台,多国或流动性释放刺激经济经济。长期看,国际秩序破坏,不确定困扰持 | | | | 续,各经济体购金动力积极,黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【740-780】 | | | | 基本面上全球需求释放或再现,商品市场波动剧烈,尽管中国和欧洲刺激预期 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 较大,但是短期需警惕流动性危机。品种属性方面,白银弹性大跟随黄金和基 | | | | 本金属波动,仍处于大的震荡区间附近,操作上区间思路对待。【8000-8500】 | | | | 特朗普,美国关税政策的不确定性加剧市场恐慌和混乱,美元指数走弱,铜延续反 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 弹,短期铜背靠下方均线,把握逢低试多机会,中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【75000,77000】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 海内外库存累积,终端需求偏弱,锌震荡偏弱,空单可部分逢低止盈兑现,中 | | | | 长期看,锌供 ...
中国宏桥:分红率再提升,公司投资价值凸显-20250417
HTSC· 2025-04-17 07:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 156.16 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 95.21% [1][2] - The dividend payout ratio has been increased to over 60%, specifically to 62.94%, which is a 15.28 percentage point increase year-on-year, enhancing the investment appeal [3][8] - The company benefits from rising prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, leading to a notable increase in gross profit margin to 27.0%, up 11.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 27.0%, with sales prices for electrolytic aluminum and alumina averaging 17,549 RMB/ton and 3,420 RMB/ton, respectively, marking increases of 6.6% and 33.6% year-on-year [2] - The sales volume for electrolytic aluminum and alumina reached 5.837 million tons and 10.921 million tons, with year-on-year growth of 1.5% and 5.3% respectively [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, with a dividend ratio raised to 62.94%, which is expected to boost investor confidence [3][8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a decline in net profit for 2025-2027, estimating 16.13 billion RMB, 17.75 billion RMB, and 21.29 billion RMB, representing decreases of 19.44% and 19.06% in the first two years [5] - The target price has been adjusted to 15.37 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.5 for 2025 [5][9]
广发期货《有色》日报-20250416
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-16 05:42
关注微信公众号 | 产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年4月16日 | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解辑 125475 | 124600 | 875 | 0.70% | 元/吨 | | 1#송川镇 126850 | 126050 | 800 | 0.63% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 2900 | 3100 | -200 | -6.45% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口镇 124175 | 123150 | 1025 | 0.83% | 元/H | | 1#进口镍升贴水 225 | 200 | ર્ટ | - | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 -211 | -202 | -8 | 4.19% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 -2871 | -2840 | -31 | 1.09% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 8.07 | 8.06 | 0.0 ...
有色商品日报-20250416
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-04-16 05:06
有色商品日报 有色商品日报(2025 年 4 月 16 日) 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 | LME 铜下跌 0.91%至 9137 美元/吨;SHFE 铜下跌 0.17%至 7583 元/吨;现货进口 维系亏损。宏观方面,海外方面,纽约制造业整体商业状况指数上升 11.9 点至-8.1, | | | | 好于预期值-13.5,尽管有所缓和,但也制造业活动连续第二个月萎缩,未来订单信心 指数暴跌至 2001 年以来最低水平,显示对未来经济衰退的担忧。美国财长贝森特逐渐 | | | | 主导关税政策,关税或更加聚焦。另据媒体报道,欧盟预计美国针对欧盟的大部分关税 | | | | 将维持现状,双方目前谈判几乎没有取得进展。国内方面,政府提到将以更大力度促进 | | 铜 | | 消费、扩大内需、做强国内大循环,进一步释放我国超大规模市场的活力潜力。库存方 | | | | 面来看,LME 库存增加 4650 吨至 212475 吨;Comex 库存增加 586 吨至 109242 吨; | | | | SHFE 铜仓单增加 2840 吨至 9220 ...
有色金属日报-20250416
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-04-16 01:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The tariff war between the US and China has a significant impact on the non - ferrous metals market, with macro factors bringing continuous influence. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and tariff impacts [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE copper 05 contract rose 0.16% to 75,970 yuan/ton. Tariff issues initially led to a sharp decline in copper prices and then a rebound. Fundamentally, downstream restocking was active when prices fell, but copper concentrate supply was still tight. Satellite data showed a significant decline in global copper smelting activities in March. The previous tight supply expectation in China may change. In the long - term, tariff impacts may lower market demand and the copper price center may shift down. Next week, SHFE copper will maintain a wide - range and relatively strong oscillation, and interval trading is recommended [2] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices fell, and trading was weak. Sellers tried to maintain prices, while downstream buyers pressed prices and made few purchases [8] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,840 tons to 92,209 tons, and LME copper inventories increased by 4,650 tons to 212,475 tons [18] Aluminum - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE aluminum 06 contract fell 0.61% to 19,595 yuan/ton. Ore supply improved and prices declined. Alumina operating capacity decreased by 4.9 million tons to 86.15 million tons, and inventory increased by 53,000 tons to 3.443 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 35,000 tons to 4.4079 million tons. Domestic downstream processing enterprise operating rates decreased, and inventory declined on Monday. Due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy changes [3] - In the spot market, aluminum prices fell, trading was not good, sellers tried to maintain prices, and downstream demand slightly recovered. In the afternoon, the market turned to a wait - and - see attitude, and overall trading was limited [9] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,524 tons to 101,189 tons, and LME aluminum inventories decreased by 825 tons to 439,325 tons [18] Nickel - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel 05 contract rose 1.05% to 124,240 yuan/ton. The US consumer confidence index declined, and tariff policies damaged the global trade environment. Nickel ore costs increased, and supply was affected by rainfall in the Philippines. In March, national refined nickel production increased by 39.12% year - on - year, with an oversupply situation. Nickel iron prices corrected, and the oversupply pattern expanded. In April, 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The market was in the off - season. Sulfuric acid nickel costs increased, but demand was weak. As nickel has fallen close to the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see [4][6] - In the spot market, nickel prices rose. The ccmn Yangtze River Composite 1 nickel price was 123,400 - 127,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 125,450 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan from the previous day [15] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased by 237 tons to 25,884 tons, and LME nickel inventories decreased by 1,554 tons to 202,818 tons [18] Tin - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE tin 05 contract fell 0.31% to 258,990 yuan/ton. The upcoming resumption of production in Congo put pressure on prices. In March, domestic refined tin production increased by 7.3% month - on - month. Tin concentrate imports from January to February decreased by 13% year - on - year. Indonesian refined tin exports increased in February. The semiconductor industry was expected to recover. Inventories were at a medium level. It is expected that price fluctuations will increase, and interval operation is recommended, with the reference range for the SHFE tin 05 contract being 240,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [7] - In the spot market, tin prices fell, and trading was limited as merchants mainly waited and saw [16] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 146 tons to 9,670 tons, and LME tin inventories decreased by 245 tons to 2,845 tons [18] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead) Zinc - In the spot market, zinc prices fell. Zinc price declines stimulated restocking, and spot premiums strengthened, but trading sentiment was weak, and restocking volumes were limited [12] - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts increased by 775 tons to 7,658 tons, and LME zinc inventories decreased by 5,275 tons to 112,025 tons [18] Lead - In the spot market, lead prices fell, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, with overall flat consumption [13][14] - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 145 tons to 58,378 tons, and LME lead inventories increased by 8,225 tons to 265,550 tons [18] Alumina - On April 15, alumina prices in different regions remained unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot market was lightly traded, sellers maintained prices, and downstream buyers mainly pressed prices for rigid - need purchases [10][11]
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250415
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-04-15 05:51
有色金属日报 2025-4-15 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号:F3036210 交易咨询号:Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号:F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号:F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号:F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号:F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号:F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美元指数跌幅收窄,市场对美元信心有所修复,铜价震荡上涨,昨日伦铜收涨 0.4%至 9220 美元/吨, 沪铜主力合约收至 76190 元/吨。产业层面,昨日 LME 库存减少 950 至 207825 吨,注销仓单比例抬 升至 44.1%,Cash/3M 由升水转为贴水 30 美元/吨。国内方面,周末社会库存减 ...