Core Viewpoint - The submission of the H-share listing application by the company marks a significant milestone in its development journey, aiming for an "A + H" dual listing to enhance its capital operations and international brand influence [1][3][11] Listing Core Information - The company officially submitted its application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 25, 2025, with CITIC Securities as the sole sponsor [3] - The strategic decision to pursue a dual listing is aimed at expanding financing channels and enhancing international brand recognition [3] - Financial performance shows a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan and a net profit of 408 million yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 85.51% [1] - However, Q1 2025 net profit declined by 22.46%, with sales expenses reaching 1.868 billion yuan, reflecting increased marketing investments [3][7] Business Performance and Strategic Transformation - The revenue structure is shifting, with nut products generating 5.366 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 50.5% of total revenue, down from 56.3% in 2022 [4] - The company is diversifying its product offerings, with comprehensive snacks generating 2.017 billion yuan and children's snacks brand "Xiao Lu Lan Lan" nearing 1 billion yuan in sales [4] - Online sales through Douyin reached 2.188 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing traditional platforms like Tmall and JD [6] - The company is closing franchise stores, reducing them to 333 from 1,065 in 2021, while focusing on distributor channels, which generated 1.48 billion yuan in revenue, a 91% year-on-year increase [6] Market Impact and Outlook - If successful, the dual listing will make the company the first "A + H" leisure food enterprise in China, solidifying its position as the largest Chinese snack brand [9] - The dual listing may inspire other companies in the industry to pursue similar capital operations, potentially increasing market activity [9] - The effectiveness of the offline channel transformation remains a critical factor, as the closure of franchise stores could impact market coverage and consumer experience [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.72 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.4% year-on-year to 230 million yuan [7] - The offline distribution channels have begun to ramp up, with a total growth of 16.2% when combining Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. In Q1 2025, online channels accounted for approximately 70% of revenue, while offline distribution and supermarkets made up nearly 30% [7] - The company is in the phase of introducing distribution, which has led to some pressure on expenses. The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 26.7%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company expects to improve net profit margins through increased sales of daily consumer goods and dairy beverages in offline distribution, as well as a gradual increase in the self-production ratio of nuts [7] - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 4.95 billion, 7.11 billion, and 11.11 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 44%, and 56% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 10.62 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 49.3%, and further increase to 20.41 billion yuan by 2027 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 407.74 million yuan in 2024 to 1.11 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 85.51% in 2024 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 1.02 yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.76 yuan by 2027 [1]

Core Insights - The leisure candy market is becoming increasingly competitive, with consumers focusing on functionality, situational adaptability, and emotional brand value rather than just taste [1] - Mint candies have gained popularity among young consumers for their refreshing taste and energizing properties, making them a daily companion [1] - Brands must accurately understand consumer needs and innovate marketing strategies to differentiate themselves in a saturated market [1] Marketing Challenges - The phenomenon of "spring drowsiness" presents a natural market entry point for brands, as it affects consumer focus and efficiency during the spring season [3] - Traditional marketing methods like advertising and promotions have limited long-term impact on consumer recognition and engagement [3] - Innovative marketing strategies that resonate with real consumer needs are essential for stimulating purchase interest and integrating brands into consumers' lives [3] Strategies for Engagement - Strategy One: Leverage the "spring drowsiness" topic to enhance emotional resonance with consumers through social media interactions and engaging content [5] - Strategy Two: Implement a "scan to win cash" mechanism to boost purchase motivation and encourage social sharing [5] - Strategy Three: Increase user retention by encouraging consumers to join private channels for additional benefits, thus building a loyal customer base [7] - Strategy Four: Utilize smart data analysis to optimize brand operations and enhance marketing strategies based on consumer engagement and sales performance [9] Results and Future Directions - The "scan to win cash" campaign significantly increased brand exposure and sales, achieving goals of sales growth, brand expansion, and user retention [9] - The company plans to continue enhancing consumer interaction through data-driven marketing innovations and exploring more strategies that align with daily consumer scenarios [9]

Core Viewpoint - Three Squirrels, a leader in the snack food industry, has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first snack food company listed on both A-shares and H-shares [1] Company Overview - Founded in 2012 by Zhang Liaoyuan, Three Squirrels capitalized on the booming e-commerce sector, particularly in the emerging snack e-commerce market, using a unique "online marketing + offline OEM" model to establish brand recognition [1] - The company successfully went public on the A-share market in 2019, achieving a market capitalization of over 80 billion yuan on its first trading day with an initial share price of 14.68 yuan [1] - At its peak, the share price reached 90.87 yuan, with a total market value exceeding 360 billion yuan [1] - Zhang Liaoyuan's personal wealth surged to 111.7 billion yuan in 2019, making him the 235th richest person in China according to Forbes [1] Shareholding Structure - As of the upcoming IPO in Hong Kong, Zhang Liaoyuan directly holds 40.37% of the company's shares and an additional 1.67% indirectly through Liao Yuan Investment, totaling 42.04% control [2] Market Challenges - The snack industry is facing increasing competition, leading to severe product homogenization and intensified price competition, which has pressured Three Squirrels' market share [2] - In response, the company launched a "high-end cost-performance" strategy at the end of 2022, which included significant price reductions and increased investment in new product development [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue projections for 2022 to 2024 are as follows: 72.93 billion yuan in 2022, 71.15 billion yuan in 2023, and 106.22 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a recovery back to the "100 billion club" in 2024 [2] - Gross profit figures for the same period are projected at 19.13 billion yuan, 16.15 billion yuan, and 25.26 billion yuan, with corresponding gross margins of 26.2%, 22.7%, and 23.8% [2] - Net profits are expected to rise from 1.29 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.08 billion yuan in 2024 [2] Product Development - By the end of 2024, Three Squirrels will have over 1,000 standard product units (SPUs) and plans to launch more than 600 new SPUs across various categories, including snacks, baked goods, and meat products [3] - The company has evolved from a single nut category to become the largest Chinese snack food enterprise, with the fastest growth rate among the top five companies in the industry based on compound annual growth rate from 2022 to 2024 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.72 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 240 million yuan, a decrease of 22.5% year-on-year [1] - The revenue growth was impacted by a 12-day delay in the Spring Festival, but when considering Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 together, the revenue shows a year-on-year increase of 16.2% [1] - The company is expanding its distribution channels to enhance offline growth, leveraging its competitive advantages in brand and pricing [1][3] Financial Performance - The company's net profit margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 6.4% in Q1 2025, primarily due to the Spring Festival delay and a decline in gift box sales [2] - The gross profit margin also saw a decline of 0.7 percentage points to 26.7% [2] - Sales expense ratio increased by 2.4 percentage points to 18.7%, attributed to increased marketing expenses during the Spring Festival and initial costs for distribution expansion [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 25.2%, 24.9%, and 19.7% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reaching 13.30 billion, 16.61 billion, and 19.89 billion yuan [3] - Net profit is projected to grow by 10.3%, 33.3%, and 25.4% for the same years, reaching 450 million, 599 million, and 752 million yuan [3] - The company is actively participating in retail transformation and has plans to deepen its supply chain advantages through investments and acquisitions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 600 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 70 million yuan, down 8.2% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue grew by 10.3% year-on-year despite a challenging environment characterized by a misalignment of the Spring Festival and weak terminal demand [1] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 9.0%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced foreign exchange gains [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 29.9%, remaining relatively stable year-on-year, supported by scale effects and improved operational efficiency [1] Group 2: Product and Channel Development - The company’s major products, particularly fish and bean products, continued to perform well, driving revenue growth in Q1 2025 [1] - There is an expectation for marginal improvement in channels, with ongoing collaboration with snack wholesale stores and an increase in SKUs [2] - The company is transitioning from product management to brand management, enhancing product and brand strength, which is expected to support long-term revenue growth [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates net profits attributable to shareholders of 330 million, 390 million, and 450 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.0%, 17.2%, and 17.4% [2] - The company aims to leverage its core product lines and expand into modern channels, including membership stores, following product and brand renewals in 2024 [2] - The company has made progress in building teams and obtaining qualifications for overseas market expansion, indicating potential for further growth [2]

证券研究报告 良品铺子 (603719 CH) 性价比趋势/量贩分流致经营承压 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 食品 | 考虑消费环境复苏偏弱、量贩分流影响持续，导致公司经营调整时间较长、 幅度较大，我们下调盈利预测，预计 25-26 年 EPS 0.02/0.26 元（前次 0.36/0.41 元），引入 27 年 EPS 0.42 元，考虑调整成果在 26 年能有更好体 现，参考可比公司 26 年平均 PE 54x，给予其 26 年 54xPE，目标价 14.04 元（前次 11.52 元，对应 24 年 36x PE），"增持"。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧，宏观经济表现不及预期，食品安全问题。 公司 24 年实现营收 71.6 亿，同比-11.0%，归母净利/扣非净利-0.5/-0.7 亿， （23 年为 1.8/0.7 亿）；对应 24Q4 实现营收 16.8 亿，同比-18.0%，归母净 利/扣非净利-0.7/-0.7 亿（23Q4 为-0.1/-0.6 亿），低于我们前次盈利预测（预 计 24 年收入/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 600 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.2% to 70 million yuan, indicating pressure on profitability despite revenue growth [1][2]. Product Dimension - The company focuses on core product categories such as fish, eggs, and beans, aiming to create healthier snack foods and continuously upgrading product quality [1]. - The brand recognition of the company's small fish products is strong, with current promotions for deep-sea anchovies expected to enhance brand strength [1]. - In the quail egg sector, the company leads the industry with its soft-boiled quail eggs, driving structural upgrades in the market [1]. - The company differentiates its bean products through short-shelf-life bean curd, establishing a competitive edge [1]. Channel Dimension - The company has significantly enhanced its sales system, upgrading traditional channels and focusing on high-quality store selections, display enhancements, and promotional investments [1]. - The company has expanded its collaboration with over 100 snack systems, covering more than 35,000 terminals, and is exporting to over 40 overseas markets [1]. Financial Performance - The net profit margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 11.3% due to cost pressures and reduced foreign exchange gains [2]. - The gross profit margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 29.9%, while the sales expense ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% [2]. - The company is actively developing anchovy resources globally to strengthen its supply chain and ensure core raw material supply [2]. Growth Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 17.7%, 14.7%, and 13.3% from 2025 to 2027, reaching 2.84 billion, 3.26 billion, and 3.69 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 14.1%, 16.4%, and 13.7% during the same period, reaching 330 million, 390 million, and 440 million yuan respectively [2]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its product expansion and channel growth potential [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 600 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, despite a 12-day shift in the Spring Festival [1]. - The decline in net profit by 8.2% year-on-year is attributed to cost pressures and reduced foreign exchange gains, leading to a net profit margin decrease of 2.3 percentage points to 11.3% [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its core product categories and expanding its market channels, which is expected to support continued strong performance [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are expected to grow by 17.7%, 14.7%, and 13.3%, reaching 2.84 billion, 3.26 billion, and 3.69 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The net profit for the same period is projected to increase by 14.1%, 16.4%, and 13.7%, reaching 330 million, 390 million, and 440 million yuan respectively [3]. - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 29.9% in Q1 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. Product and Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on health-oriented snack foods in the fish, egg, and bean categories, with a strong emphasis on product quality upgrades [1]. - The company has expanded its sales system significantly, enhancing traditional channel operations and entering over 40 overseas markets [1][2]. - The company is actively promoting deep-sea anchovies and leading the quail egg industry with its soft-boiled quail eggs, aiming to strengthen brand recognition [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][21]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 3.835 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million yuan, up 266.9% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.118 billion yuan, a 22.0% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 65 million yuan, marking a return to profitability. In the first quarter of 2025, revenue reached 1.046 billion yuan, up 14.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, a 15.1% increase year-on-year [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue growth was driven by a significant increase in cream products, which saw a 61.8% year-on-year increase, while other segments like frozen baking and sauces experienced declines. The revenue distribution across channels in 2024 was 57% from circulation, 25% from supermarkets, and 18% from catering, with circulation and catering channels showing growth of approximately 15% and 20% respectively [1][4]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.5%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 6.9%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin decreased to 30.0% due to rising raw material costs, but the net profit margin slightly improved to 8.5% [1][5]. Growth Drivers - The company is expected to maintain solid growth momentum in 2025, with clear growth drivers identified in cream products, Sam's Club, and the catering sector. The management has implemented efficiency optimization measures, including a product manager responsibility system and a focus on large clients, which are anticipated to enhance profitability [1][4]. - The report projects a double-digit growth rate for 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates adjusted to 1.97 yuan for 2025, 2.26 yuan for 2026, and 2.59 yuan for 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 16, and 14 respectively [1][5]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the industry, benefiting from channel advantages and ongoing management improvements. The report highlights the potential for continued benefits from changes in the baking channel and the development of Western-style dining opportunities [1][4].