作为立足香港、辐射亚太的专业贵金属交易机构，香港第一金PPLI始终以全球化视角追踪市场变量。刚刚过去的周末，全球政经舞台上演的"特朗普式风 暴"，正为黄金资产注入强劲上涨动能——地缘对峙升级、政策连续性崩塌与央行独立性受冲击的三重逻辑共振，让黄金的避险对冲价值愈发凸显。 核心结论：当前黄金处于"乱世买金"的战略布局窗口，短期回调即是多单介入良机，中长期上涨趋势明确。地缘焦点：美委对峙"假降温真升温" 香港第一金 【香港第一金PPLI 市场研判】2025年12月1日 特朗普公开宣称"关闭领空不意味军事行动"，并提及与马杜罗的直接通话，看似释放降温信号，但《迈阿密先驱报》的独家爆料揭开了谈判破裂的真相： 马杜罗提出"保留军队控制权""亲信全球刑事豁免"两大硬诉求 特朗普当场驳回，谈判直接破裂 美军战机仍在委海岸巡航，对方启动军演+封锁空域，剑拔弩张 香港第一金PPLI交易团队提醒：美国"后院"的军事对峙历来是黄金的"隐形推手"，1989年美军入侵巴拿马、2011年拉美债务危机期间，伦敦金一个月内均涨 超8%。 站在香港国际金融中心的视角，香港第一金PPLI交易团队尤为清楚，美国"后院"的军事对峙历来是黄金的"隐形 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITG Guomao Futures [3] - Researcher: Baishuna from the Precious Metals and New Energy Research Center [5] - Investment Consulting Number: Z0013700 [5] - Qualification Number: F3023916 [5] Group 2: Price Tracking Inner and Outer Market Gold and Silver Price Tracking (15:00 prices) - On November 28, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $4,186.79 per ounce, London Silver Spot at $53.99 per ounce, COMEX Gold at $4,221.30 per ounce, COMEX Silver at $54.65 per ounce, AU2512 at 949.66 yuan per gram, AG2512 at 12,724 yuan per kilogram, AU (T+D) at 948.04 yuan per gram, and AG (T+D) at 12,671 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Compared to November 27, 2025, the price increases were 0.7%, 1.1%, 0.8%, 1.3%, 0.7%, 1.7%, 0.7%, and 1.4% respectively [5]. Spread/Ratio Price Tracking (15:00 prices) - On November 28, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was -1.62 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was -53 yuan per kilogram, the gold inner - outer (TD - London) spread was -4.84 yuan per gram, the silver inner - outer (TD - London) spread was -1,075 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 74.64, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 77.24, AU2602 - 2512 was 4.26 yuan per gram, and AG2602 - 2512 was 3 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Compared to November 27, 2025, the price increases were 1.2%, 307.7%, 17.3%, -1.9%, -1.0%, -0.5%, 16.4%, and -78.6% respectively [5]. Group 3: Position and Inventory Data Position Data - On November 28, 2025, the Gold ETF - SPDR was 1,045.43 tons, the Silver ETF - SLV was 15,610.5435 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX Gold was 278,405 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 74,489 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 203,916 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX Silver was 67,041 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 23,860 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 43,181 contracts [5]. - Compared to November 26, 2025, the changes were 0.00%, 0.18%, -7.44%, 8.20%, -12.09%, -0.93%, 11.23%, and -6.57% respectively [5]. Inventory Data - On November 28, 2025, the SHFE Gold inventory was 90,873 kilograms, the SHFE Silver inventory was 558,882 kilograms, the COMEX Gold inventory was 36,357,103 troy ounces, and the COMEX Silver inventory was 456,772,056 troy ounces [5]. - Compared to November 26 - 27, 2025, the changes were 0.50%, 2.18%, -0.57%, and -0.29% respectively [5]. Group 4: Interest Rates/Foreign Exchange/Restock Market - On November 28, 2025, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate was 7.08, the US dollar index was 99.44, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, the VIX was 16.35, the S&P 500 was 6,849.09, and NYMEX crude oil was 58.48 [5]. - Compared to November 26 - 27, 2025, the changes were 0.01%, -0.15%, 0.58%, 0.50%, -4.89%, 0.54%, and -0.12% respectively [5]. Group 5: Market Review - On November 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.76% to 953.92 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.21% to 12,727 yuan per kilogram. On the night of the previous Friday, gold and silver prices rose. Shanghai silver rose 5.17% to 13,191 yuan per kilogram, hitting a record high; Shanghai gold rose 0.97% to 959.82 yuan per gram [3]. Group 6: Influencing Factors Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - Due to increased supply concerns, the squeeze - out risk in the silver market has been fermenting. Coupled with the overseas Thanksgiving holiday, poor market liquidity, and a glitch in the QKE trading system, market speculative sentiment was further amplified, pushing silver prices up significantly. London spot silver rose over 5% last Friday, breaking through the $56 per ounce mark, COMEX silver rose over 6% and broke through the $57 per ounce mark, and Shanghai silver futures rose over 8% and broke through the 13,000 yuan per kilogram mark, with all three markets hitting new record highs [6]. - Gold was also supported by the sentiment from the silver squeeze - out and the high probability of a Fed rate cut in December, showing a strong performance. In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong under the background of the silver squeeze - out. However, in December, attention should be paid to the December silver delivery situation on the SHFE and the changes in inventory. If the supply shortage eases or the December delivery volume in New York is not as large as the market rumor, silver prices may face significant fluctuations [6]. - In the short - term strategy, existing long positions can be held, while for those not yet in the market, gold can be bought on dips, and participation in silver should be cautious [6]. Group 7: Medium - to - Long - Term View - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. Global central bank gold purchases continue. Therefore, the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up. Long - term investors are advised to mainly allocate by buying on dips [6].

Group 1: Price Performance - London gold price is 4191.05, up 37.10 [2] - London silver price is 53.91, up 0.51 [2] - London platinum price is 1604.00, up 41.00 [2] - London palladium price is 1423.00, up 12.00 [2] - WTI crude oil price is 58.55, unchanged [2] - LME copper price is 10995.00, up 59.50 [2] - Dollar index is 99.55, unchanged [2] - Euro - US dollar exchange rate is 1.16, unchanged [2] - Pound - US dollar exchange rate is 1.32, unchanged [2] - US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate is 156.30, unchanged [2] - US 10 - year TIPS is 1.79, unchanged [2] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX silver inventory is 14248.09, unchanged [2] - SHFE silver inventory is 558.88, up 11.90 [2] - Gold ETF holdings are 1045.43, unchanged [2] - Silver ETF holdings are 15610.54, unchanged [2] - SGE silver inventory is 822.42, unchanged [2] - SGE gold deferred fee payment direction changes by - 1.00 [2] - SGE silver deferred fee payment direction is 1, unchanged [2]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals sector has regained focus, with COMEX silver futures reaching a historical high of $57.245 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 13% [1] - Gold and copper prices have also surged, with COMEX gold surpassing $4263 per ounce and LME copper nearing historical highs, indicating a collective rally in precious metals [1] - Silver has led the charge with a cumulative increase of 16% in November, driven by global economic uncertainty and rising inflation expectations [1][2] Group 2: Investment Trends - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, currently holds 15,610.54 tons, reflecting strong investment interest [2] - Technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook for silver, attracting speculative investors [2] - The speculative net long positions in COMEX silver futures have increased, indicating heightened market activity, although liquidity risks may amplify short-term volatility [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Silver Association forecasts a decline in global silver demand to 1.12 billion ounces by 2025, a 4% year-on-year decrease [2] - However, supply is expected to face a larger deficit, with a projected shortfall of 9.5 million ounces over the next five years [2] Group 4: Long-term Price Predictions - UBS has raised its silver price forecast, predicting it could reach $60 per ounce by 2026, with potential spikes to $65 per ounce [3] - Strong investment demand is anticipated to support further price increases in the coming year [3] Group 5: Broader Market Sentiment - Gold prices have also seen significant gains, surpassing $4200 per ounce with a year-to-date increase of over 50% [4] - Factors such as high U.S. debt, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases are providing long-term support for gold prices [4] - Copper prices have risen sharply, reflecting optimistic expectations for global economic growth, with LME copper reaching approximately $11,210 per ton [4][5] Group 6: Future Price Expectations - JP Morgan projects copper prices to rise to $12,000 per ton by Q1 2026, with an average price of $12,075 per ton for the entire year [5] - Goldman Sachs expresses a strong preference for gold among precious metals, citing its enduring structural support and stability as a value storage tool [5]

Core Insights - International precious metal prices have significantly increased, with London spot silver prices surpassing $56 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1] - Silver futures for March delivery on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $57.16 per ounce, marking a record high with a rise of 6.6% [1] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, increased holdings in silver ETFs, and ongoing supply tightness [1] - International gold prices also rebounded to a half-month high, with February delivery gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange closing at $4254.9 per ounce, up 1.25% [1] - A cooling system failure at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange data center on the evening of the 27th caused trading interruptions across stock, forex, bond, and commodity markets, amplifying market volatility [1]

基本面： ---趋势判断---- 周五（11月28日）白银亚盘震荡上涨，关注回落支撑位多单布局。白银现货价格53.76附近。亚市早盘先跌后涨，亚盘尾盘左右快速拉升至日内高点53.9附 近，随后逐步回落并在53.2-53.3区间进入横盘震荡。受降息预期升温、工业需求激增以及中国市场供应紧张对多头形成支撑等多重因素影响，白银价格涨势 持续延续。交易商正密切关注12月市场是否会出现大幅波动。感恩节当周，现货白银依旧保持强劲走势，此次涨势传递出明确信号：买家交易活跃度居高不 下，而美联储的政策动向堪称此次涨势的核心推手。本周三，现货白银价格触及53.39美元，当日涨幅超3.5%；过去一个月累计涨幅已接近13.5%，同比涨幅 更是超75%。这一涨幅看似惊人，却符合市场规律：在贵金属市场真正迎来牛市行情时，白银往往会迎来暴涨，而非仅因避险需求出现小幅波动。 美联储政策立场支撑多头主导市场本周初，白银价格维持在50美元附近，交易商普遍强烈预期美联储将于12月实施降息。疲软的劳动力数据，加之纽约联邦 储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯释放的宽松信号，使得今年美联储第三次降息的概率从约40%飙升至80%以上。而这种市场环境正是白银所青 ...

几位美联储官员最近表示愿意采取短期宽松政策，这加强了市场对美联储可能在12月会议上再次降息25个基点的预期。 这一前景继续对美元构成结构性压力，有助于限制白银的大幅回调。 与此同时，在对美联储宽松政策信心增强的推动下，全球股市人气改善，在一定程度上减少了对避险资产的需求。然 而，这种影响被持续存在的地缘政治风险部分抵消。这令投资者保持适度谨慎，间接支撑了白银。 美元指数近期下跌后趋于稳定，略高于本周低点。最近美国公布的经济数据，包括喜忧参半的制造业数据、劳动力市场 走软的迹象和消费势头减弱，强化了对美国经济放缓的预期。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为86.9%，维持利率不变的概率为13.1%。美联储到明年1月累计 降息25个基点的概率为67.3%，维持利率不变的概率为9.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为23.1%。 今日周五(11月28日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于53.81一线上方，今日开盘于53.35美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银 暂报54.01美元/盎司，上涨1.07%，最高触及54.22美元/盎司，最低下探53.30美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线 偏向震荡走势。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in December is still high, which supports the precious metal prices. However, the easing of geopolitical tensions and the neutral economic data in the US limit the upward movement of precious metal prices. The domestic silver inventory is at a near - decade low, causing the silver price to rise against the gold price. In the short - term, gold is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and silver may fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to inventory changes. In the long - term, due to factors such as the Fed's rate - cut cycle, geopolitical uncertainties, and the continuation of central bank gold purchases, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On November 27, 2025, London gold spot was at $4157.26/ounce, London silver spot at $53.42/ounce, COMEX gold at $4189.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $53.97/ounce. Compared with November 26, the price of London gold spot increased by 0.2%, London silver spot by 2.9%, COMEX gold by 0.1%, and COMEX silver by 3.2%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures also showed certain increases, with the Shanghai gold futures main contract rising 0.14% to 947.16 yuan/gram and the Shanghai silver futures main contract rising 3.35% to 12525 yuan/kilogram [3][5] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 1.6 yuan/gram on November 27, with a 15.9% increase compared to the previous day. The silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 13 yuan/kilogram, a - 35.0% change. The gold and silver price ratios and spreads between domestic and foreign markets also had different degrees of changes [5] 2. Position Data - As of November 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1045.43 tons, with a 0.44% increase compared to November 25. The silver ETF - SLV was 15582.3342 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also had corresponding changes, with the non - commercial net long position of COMEX gold decreasing by 12.09% [5] 3. Inventory Data - On November 27, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 90423.00 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day, and the SHFE silver inventory was 546976.00 kilograms, a 2.97% increase. The COMEX gold and silver inventories also had slight changes [5] 4. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On November 27, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.08, a - 0.02% change. The US dollar index was 99.59, a - 0.22% change. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had different degrees of changes [5] 5. Market Review - On November 27, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed up 0.14% to 947.16 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver futures main contract closed up 3.35% to 12525 yuan/kilogram [5] 6. Influencing Factors Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - Although the US weekly initial jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since mid - April, the US economic beige book showed that the Trump administration shutdown had a negative impact on consumer purchases. The market's high expectation of the Fed's rate cut in December supports precious metal prices, but geopolitical tensions easing and neutral economic data limit the upward movement. The low domestic silver inventory has led to a rise in silver prices. In the short - term, gold may fluctuate in a high - level range, and silver may fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to inventory changes [6] 7. Medium - and Long - Term Viewpoints - In the medium - and long - term, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term risk of the US dollar's credit. The continuation of central bank gold purchases will likely drive up the long - term center of gold prices. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising, and geopolitical risks in multiple regions remain unresolved, which may support precious metal prices [1]. - The global supply - demand outlook for platinum from 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, and the price may fluctuate on the strong side [1]. - The global supply - demand outlook for palladium from 2025 - 2026 may shift from tight to loose, but the price may be cautiously strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Gold - **Futures**: Shanghai gold futures (SHFE) had a closing price of 943.13 yuan/gram on November 27, 2025, up 1.96 yuan from the previous day and 20.45 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 352,583, with a decrease of 67,866 from the previous day and 79,224 from last week. The open interest was 195,755, an increase of 6,992 from the previous day and 35,445 from last week. The inventory (in ten - gram units) was 90,423, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 3 from last week [1]. - **Spot**: The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 941.17 yuan/gram on November 26, 2025. The trading volume was 57,208, and the open interest was 230,148 [1]. - **International**: COMEX gold futures had a closing price of 4,126.30 dollars/ounce on November 27, 2025. The trading volume was 229,049, and the open interest was 232,736. The London gold spot price was 4,139.60 dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,045.43 tons, and iShare Gold ETF holdings were 484.24 tons [1]. 3.1.2 Silver - **Futures**: Shanghai silver futures had a closing price of 12,227 yuan on November 27, 2025. The trading volume was 1,827,650, and the open interest was 385,232. - **Spot**: The trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 57,208, and the open interest was 230,148 on November 26, 2025 [1]. - **International**: COMEX silver futures had a closing price of 53.76 dollars/ounce on November 26, 2025. The trading volume was 83,948, and the open interest was 102,422. The London silver spot price was 51.21 dollars/ounce. The holdings of the iShare Silver ETF were 15,582.33 tons [1]. 3.1.3 Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was at 445 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was at 61.90 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was at 58.11 dollars/barrel on November 27, 2025 [1]. - **Copper**: Shanghai copper futures were at 86,990 yuan/ton, and LME copper spot was at 10,930 dollars/ton [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,875.2594, the S&P 500 was at 6,812.6100, the UK FTSE 100 was at 9,552.3000, etc. [1]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.12%, the 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.77%, the dollar index was 99.8123, the dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.0779 [1]. 3.2 Important News - Putin publicly discussed the peace plan for the first time, stating that there is no final plan yet and preparing for a "serious" discussion with the US next week. Currently, negotiations with the current Ukrainian leadership have no practical significance [1]. - ECB official Kazaks warned that "it is too early to talk about rate cuts" and inflation risks still need to be vigilant [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic - **Gold and Silver**: The negative growth of the US ADP private - sector weekly new employment and some Fed officials' support for a December rate cut have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. Japan's economic stimulus plan has intensified its debt burden, and the UK's fiscal buffer space has increased, but there are concerns about future economic growth. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks support precious metal prices [1]. - **Platinum**: On the supply side, factors such as high mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging production equipment affect platinum production, and recycled platinum production grows slowly. On the demand side, the increase in exhaust emission standards and positive demand expectations in multiple industries lead to a tight supply - demand outlook from 2025 - 2026, and the rising rate - cut expectation may push the price up [1]. - **Palladium**: On the supply side, mining issues affect production, but the recycling supply is expected to increase. On the demand side, the demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, and the demand from other industries has low elasticity. The supply - demand outlook may shift from tight to loose, but the rate - cut expectation may keep the price cautiously strong [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: It is advisable to go long on dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,850 - 3,950 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 870 - 890 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 960 - 1,000 yuan/gram. For London silver, the support level is around 38 - 45 dollars/ounce and the resistance level is around 55 - 63 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 10,000 - 11,000 yuan and the resistance level is around 12,700 - 13,000 yuan [1]. - **Platinum**: Go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term or consider the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage opportunity. For London platinum, pay attention to the support level around 1,260 - 1,460 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000 dollars/ounce; for domestic platinum, the support level is around 325 - 377 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 465 - 516 yuan/gram [1]. - **Palladium**: Go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term. For London palladium, pay attention to the support level around 1,080 - 1,280 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800 dollars/ounce; for domestic palladium, the support level is around 320 - 350 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 415 - 465 yuan/gram [1].

Core Viewpoint - Gold investment is increasingly favored as a traditional safe-haven asset, with simulated trading emerging as a crucial entry point for new investors to mitigate risks and uncertainties associated with real trading [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Simulated Trading - Simulated trading is essential for beginners, allowing them to practice in a risk-free environment using virtual funds, which helps in understanding market dynamics and technical analysis [2][4]. - Over 80% of successful investors have gained experience through simulated trading before entering real markets, enhancing their confidence and reducing learning costs [2][4]. - The simulated trading feature of the Wanzhou Gold Industry APP provides a realistic trading experience with real-time market data, facilitating a smooth transition from theory to practice [2][4]. Group 2: Advantages of Wanzhou Gold Industry APP - Wanzhou Gold Industry is a compliant platform with robust security measures, including advanced encryption and risk control systems, ensuring user data and funds are safe [4][5]. - The APP offers a user-friendly interface with comprehensive features such as real-time market data, technical analysis tools, and a dedicated simulated trading module [4][5]. - Users can register for a simulated trading account without any initial deposit, allowing them to practice trading anytime and anywhere [4][5]. Group 3: Zero-Risk Practical Experience - After downloading and registering on the Wanzhou Gold Industry APP, users receive $200,000 in virtual funds to practice trading, enabling them to learn basic and advanced trading strategies [8][9]. - The APP includes educational resources and historical data replay features, allowing users to refine their trading skills and develop a calm investment mindset [8][9]. - Engaging in simulated trading for 1-3 months can increase the success rate in real trading by over 30%, providing a solid foundation for future investments [9]. Group 4: Safe Download Guidelines - Investors should prioritize official channels for downloading the Wanzhou Gold Industry APP to avoid risks associated with third-party platforms and phishing links [5][10]. - Recommended download sources include the official website, Apple App Store, and major Android app markets [10].