1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the short - term, copper pricing returns to macro trading. With weak economic expectations, the upside of copper prices is under pressure, but the downside space is also difficult to open. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The key lies in the inflation and employment data in the US in August, which will determine the Fed's decision in the September interest - rate meeting [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market will remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton this week. It is recommended to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term prices are still under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price reference of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and focus on the 21,000 pressure level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply - demand weakness pattern of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to continue, with the price mainly fluctuating narrowly, and the main contract referring to 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - In the short - term, the driving force for zinc prices is weak, and they are likely to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - In the short - term, the driving force for tin prices is limited, and they will fluctuate widely. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [9]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [10]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel price will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract operating between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and ferronickel dynamics [11]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with strong support likely between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [12]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,770 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous value [1]. - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,520 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous value [3]. - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remains unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton [4]. - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous value [6]. - SMM 1 tin price is 267,500 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from the previous value [9]. - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,900 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous value [10]. - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) stainless steel price is 13,050 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous value [11]. - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [12]. Fundamental Data Copper - July electrolytic copper production is 1174.3 thousand tons, up 3.47% month - on - month [1]. - July electrolytic copper imports are 296.9 thousand tons, down 1.20% from the previous month [1]. Aluminum - July alumina production is 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month [3]. - July electrolytic aluminum production is 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - July recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 625 thousand tons, up 1.63% month - on - month [4]. - July primary aluminum alloy ingot production is 266 thousand tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [4]. Zinc - July refined zinc production is 602.8 thousand tons, up 3.03% month - on - month [6]. - July refined zinc imports are 17.9 thousand tons, down 50.35% from the previous month [6]. Tin - July tin ore imports are 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - July SMM refined tin production is 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production in a certain period is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month [10]. - Refined nickel imports in a certain period are 19,157 tons, up 116.90% from the previous period [10]. Stainless Steel - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in a certain period is 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [11]. - Stainless steel imports in a certain period are 109.5 thousand tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [11]. Lithium Carbonate - July lithium carbonate production is 93,958 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month [12]. - July lithium carbonate demand is 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market turns to expect a September rate cut after digesting short - term bearish sentiment, geopolitical easing, and Powell's potentially hawkish views. Gold and silver are recommended for short - term bottom - fishing and long - term strategic allocation. Copper is recommended for short - term dip - buying and long - term bullish outlook. Zinc is expected to rebound in the short - term and be shorted on rallies in the long - term. Lead is under short - term pressure. Tin and aluminum are under short - term pressure for rebounds. Nickel is under short - term pressure. Industrial silicon rebounds, while polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in high - level oscillations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Bearish sentiment is partially digested, showing short - term signs of stopping the decline. Attention is paid to Powell's speech on Friday [4]. - **Basic Logic**: There is a divergence of opinions among Fed officials on a September rate cut. The UK's inflation rate in July reached a new high in 18 months, weakening the market's expectation of a rate cut. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, it may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may be supported around 766, and long - term orders can be considered after stabilization. Silver is more volatile in the short - term, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of support around 9000. Attention is also paid to the meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range with converging volatility [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are disturbances in copper mines recently, the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. The production of refined copper may decrease marginally in August - September due to increased smelting maintenance. It is currently the off - season for consumption, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. The overall copper supply and demand are in a tight balance throughout the year [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try buying copper on dips. In the long - term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the China - US game. The focus ranges are [78000, 80000] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton for London copper [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds, getting support from the lower moving average [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrate is abundant in 2025. The production of refined zinc is expected to increase in August. On the demand side, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The domestic zinc social and exchange inventories are accumulating, and the downstream is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions. In the long - term, short zinc on rallies. The focus ranges are [22000, 22600] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, while alumina shows a slight stabilizing trend [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are still uncertainties in overseas macro - trade policies. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term, and attention is paid to overseas bauxite changes [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the inventory changes of aluminum ingots during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are weak, and stainless steel is under pressure and declining [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment is still uncertain. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and the production of refined nickel has increased with accumulated inventory. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and it still faces over - supply pressure during the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 gaps down and hits the daily limit down [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: Negative news impacts the market, but the corresponding production cannot make up for the gap. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, but with the approaching peak season of terminal demand, the inventory structure may amplify price elasticity. The main contract is expected to rise further after the strengthening of the de - stocking expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of [80000 - 85000] [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The overall market sentiment has shown a mixed picture. Overseas, the global risk appetite has cooled to some extent, while in China, the risk appetite has increased due to policy stimulus expectations and the extension of the tariff truce period. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions, and various commodity sectors also face different supply - demand and price situations. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the US dollar reduced its decline after the Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers supported last month's rate cut, and the global risk appetite cooled. In China, the economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier indicated measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market, and the Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, increasing domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a short - term high, and it is advisable to be cautious when going long; the treasury bond is expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals are expected to correct in the short term, non - ferrous metals to oscillate, energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly, and precious metals to oscillate at a high level, all requiring cautious observation. [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as liquor, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market rose significantly. The economic data in July was weak, but policy stimulus expectations increased, and the short - term macro - upward driving force strengthened. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. It is advisable to be cautious when going long in the short term. [3] Precious Metals - Precious metals rose on Wednesday. The Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers advocated rate cuts, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September was 83%. Weak employment data and a weakening US dollar index led to the rise of precious metals. The long - term positive logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to entry opportunities at key points. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets were flat, with prices slightly falling and low trading volume. Demand weakened, and inventories in some areas increased. Supply of rebar was relatively low, and that of plates was stable. There were rumors of production control in Cangzhou, and iron - water production may further decline. It is advisable to view the steel market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Although steel mill profits were high and iron - water production rebounded slightly last week, with the approaching of important events in early September, production - restriction policies may be further strengthened, and port transportation and ore handling volumes will be affected. The supply side increased, and port inventories were accumulating. Iron ore prices may weaken in the short term. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell. Manganese ore prices continued to decline. Manufacturers were actively starting production, and some had plans to increase production. The开工 rate and daily output of both silicon manganese and silicon iron increased. It is advisable to view the ferroalloy market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [6] - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda - ash contract was weak. The supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged, with new installations expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. Demand was weak, and profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is likely to fall rather than rise due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [7] - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was weak. Supply changes were small, demand was still weak in the real - estate industry, and although downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as prices fell. Glass prices follow the real - world logic due to near - month delivery. [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: With the approaching of the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, the expectation of a rate cut has increased, which is short - term positive for copper prices. However, high tariffs and the slowdown of the US economy pose risks. Copper mine production is growing faster than expected, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper price is hard to sustain. [8][9] - **Aluminum**: On August 19, the US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. Aluminum prices fell slightly on Wednesday. The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened, with domestic social inventories increasing significantly and LME inventories also rising. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited medium - term upside. [9] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and causing losses for some regenerative aluminum plants. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The combined开工 rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight but improving, and refined tin production has not decreased significantly. Demand is weak, and although inventory decreased this week, downstream procurement is still cautious. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upside is restricted. [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium ore decreased. The industry's profit situation has improved, and production enthusiasm is high. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial - silicon contract fell. The spot price decreased, and the futures price was at a discount. With the weakening of black metals and the oscillation of polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate within a range. [11] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon contract fell slightly. Spot prices were stable, and the number of warehouse receipts increased, indicating increased hedging pressure. The photovoltaic industry is expected to regulate the market, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with a possibility of weakening later. [12][13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: EIA data showed a significant decrease in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, leading to a rebound in oil prices. However, Cushing inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and long - term supply increases, the long - term outlook for oil prices is still bearish, and short - term stability is expected. [14] - **Asphalt**: The processing margin of asphalt is approaching the previous low, but the crude - oil processing margin has rebounded slightly, providing some price support. The spot price has slightly recovered, but inventory de - stocking is limited. With the expected decline of crude oil prices due to OPEC+ production increases, asphalt is expected to remain in a weak - oscillation pattern. [14] - **PX**: The adjustment of upstream refinery capacity in China has strengthened the support for downstream chemicals. Although PX is in a tight supply situation in the short term, it is expected to oscillate as PTA device recovery is limited. [15] - **PTA**: The polyester sector rebounded due to capacity adjustment, and PTA was also lifted. Downstream demand has slightly rebounded, but processing margins are low, limiting supply. PTA prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, with the upside restricted by crude oil prices and terminal orders in September. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The restriction on new capacity and excess raw - material capacity has supported ethylene glycol prices. Although port inventory has decreased slightly, factory inventory is still high, and supply is expected to increase slightly. With the recovery of terminal orders in August, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an oscillation pattern. [16] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price rose slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased slightly, but inventory accumulation is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term. [16] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang followed the futures and strengthened, while the basis weakened. Inland demand increased as some methanol plants restarted, but port inventory increased due to imports and plant overhauls. The price is expected to oscillate and rise in the short term and maintain a weak - oscillation pattern in the medium term. [17] - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP has increased as device开工 rates have risen and new capacity is to be put into operation. Although downstream demand has increased slightly, there is no obvious peak - season stocking. With policy support, PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the 09 contract and attention should be paid to the 01 contract for peak - season stocking. [17] - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of LLDPE remains high, and demand has shown a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, while the 01 contract is supported by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to demand, stocking, and policy implementation. [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT rose slightly. US soybean growers urged the government to reach a trade agreement with China, and the results of the Midwest crop inspection were mixed. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of full - stockpiling of soybeans and soybean meal in domestic oil mills has been relieved. Canadian rapeseed imports are restricted, but China's purchase of Australian rapeseed has eased the supply risk. The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has risen, and there is still a risk preference for rapeseed meal. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: ICE rapeseed rebounded after two days of decline. The supply of domestic rapeseed oil is expected to shrink as port inventory decreases and imports are low. The cost of soybean oil is expected to be strong, with high short - term inventory pressure but improved supply - demand in the fourth quarter. [20] - **Palm Oil**: The prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, Malaysian palm - oil futures, and international crude oil rose. The export of Malaysian palm oil in August 1 - 20 increased significantly, but the inverted soybean - palm oil price spread may affect future demand. [20] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. With the listing of spring corn, sufficient supply, and the potential impact of state - reserve auctions and rice auctions, the corn market remains weak. [20] - **Pigs**: Pig prices may have a seasonal rebound from late August to September, but the amplitude is limited. The cost of secondary fattening has increased due to stricter transportation inspections. The spot price has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the consumption peak during the start of the school term. [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].

Trade Agreements Overview - The Trump administration has reached trade agreements with the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea, covering 38.6% of total US goods imports and 49.8% of the US trade deficit in 2024 (excluding the UK) [3] - The US-UK trade agreement includes a 10% base tariff and industry export quotas, with ongoing negotiations on specific details [4] - The US-Vietnam trade agreement proposes a 20% base tariff and a 40% tariff on re-exported goods, reflecting a significant imbalance in tariff rates [5] Tariff Structures and Economic Impact - The US-Japan trade agreement imposes a 15% base tariff on exports, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US, aiming to boost domestic industrial production [5] - The US-EU agreement also includes a 15% base tariff, with the EU required to invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy by 2028 [5] - The tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper range from 25% to 50%, with an estimated $70.7 billion in tariffs expected from these metals in 2024 [5] Future Implications - Industry tariffs are likely to become a central focus of Trump's trade policy, aimed at reducing the trade deficit and promoting domestic manufacturing [5] - The potential for increased tariffs on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and rare minerals is anticipated, with ongoing investigations into these industries [5] - The overall tariff revenue for the US is projected to exceed $28 billion by July 2025, indicating a significant reliance on tariff income [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term market sentiment for precious metals is cautious, but long - term factors support the gold price. Copper prices may continue to fluctuate, and the support level has been raised. Aluminum prices may experience a callback, while alumina prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and a sell - outside - buy - inside strategy can be considered. Nickel - related products show different trends, and tin prices may continue to fluctuate. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range shock, and the industrial silicon market is affected by relevant policies [3][17][36][62][75][89][105][116]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: The spot price of gold is at a discount of 4.18 yuan/gram to the futures price, indicating cautious short - term market sentiment. The net profit of Laopu Gold in the first half of the year increased by 285.8% year - on - year, showing demand resilience. The SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 3.2 tons to 962.2 tons [3]. - **Macro Factors**: The market focuses on the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting and the speeches of Fed officials. Trump's appointment of an interim director pressures the independence of monetary policy, and the market expects an 86.1% probability of a rate cut in September, which supports the gold price in the long term [3]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices, while the strong support of the US dollar index exerts pressure on the valuation of non - ferrous metals [17]. - **Market Data**: The latest price of SHFE copper futures main contract is 78,640 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The spot prices of various regions also showed a decline, and the inventory of SHFE copper and LME copper decreased to varying degrees [18][21][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The expansion of the US tariff scope on aluminum has a certain impact on China's exports, and the price may experience a callback. Considering the peak season in September and the rate - cut expectation, the decline is likely to be a correction rather than a reversal [36]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are weak, with an oversupply situation expected in the second half of the year. The spot price is continuously falling, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the cost of imported ore from Guinea as a support level [36]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and the supply of scrap aluminum may decrease in the future, providing strong support for the price of aluminum alloy. The demand is currently good, and the futures price generally follows the trend of SHFE aluminum, with a price difference of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [37]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, with strong processing fees. The demand is weak during the traditional off - season. LME inventories are falling, with a certain risk of short - squeeze, but the support is weak [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the pattern of strong external and weak internal zinc prices, a sell - outside - buy - inside strategy can be considered. In the short term, the price is expected to be volatile [62]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel ore is relatively stable, with high domestic arrival inventories. Nickel iron is relatively firm in the short term, and stainless steel shows a weak trend. Sulfuric acid nickel has certain price - support sentiment, and the MHP market is in short supply [75]. - **Macro Factors**: The strengthening of the US dollar index at the beginning of the week suppresses the market, but the expectation of a rate cut in September is still strong [75]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: The repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has supported the tin price, and in the short term, the price may continue to fluctuate [89]. - **Market Data**: The latest price of SHFE tin futures main contract is 267,840 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The inventories of SHFE tin and LME tin decreased [90][100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The market is over - hyped, and there is a sign of inventory reduction in the upstream and inventory replenishment in the downstream. The futures market is dominated by sentiment, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock [105]. - **Price Data**: The price of lithium carbonate futures shows different changes, and the spot prices of various lithium products also have corresponding fluctuations [106][110]. Industrial Silicon - **Policy Impact**: The joint meeting of multiple departments to regulate the photovoltaic industry may have an impact on the industrial silicon market [116]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon in various regions decreased, and the futures price also declined. The prices of related products such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells also showed different trends [117][125][126].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on BHP with a target price of 44 AUD, despite the stock rising 18% since June, outperforming the ASX200 index which increased by 5% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, BHP's EBITDA is projected to be 26 billion USD and net profit at 10.2 billion USD, aligning with Morgan Stanley's and consensus expectations [1] - The final dividend per share is set at 0.60 AUD, exceeding Morgan Stanley's forecast of 0.49 AUD and consensus estimate of 0.51 AUD, with a payout ratio of 60% [1] Group 2: Cost Guidance - The new cost guidance for Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) for fiscal year 2026 is approximately 19 USD per ton, lower than Morgan Stanley's expectations and closer to consensus [1] - Cost guidance for copper and coking coal remains largely in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations [1] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Debt - Mid-term capital expenditure has been reduced from 11 billion USD to 10 billion USD due to project rescheduling and a decrease in low-carbon spending [1] - BHP has adjusted its net debt target range from 5 billion to 15 billion USD to 10 billion to 20 billion USD, leading to a 4% increase in earnings expectations for 2026 due to lower costs [1]

Group 1: Steel Industry Outlook - The steel industry's mid-cycle outlook faces challenges due to weak demand and tariff barriers, with companies like Tata Steel, Nucor, and Steel Dynamics expected to maintain relative premium due to favorable demand prospects and tariff protections [3][5] - Chinese steel companies are anticipated to improve profitability due to demand recovery and production cuts, with a year-on-year demand growth of 4.3% driven mainly by the automotive and machinery sectors, while exports grew by 9.2% [5][6] - North American steel producers have an optimistic outlook despite uncertainties from tariff policy changes and infrastructure investment delays, with a projected 3% decline in steel demand in 2024 followed by a 2% rebound in 2025 [12][14] Group 2: Copper Industry Insights - U.S. copper tariffs aim to encourage supply repatriation, but limited smelting capacity and slow approval processes hinder this goal, leading to continued reliance on imports [7][8] - Freeport-McMoRan is expected to benefit from increased sales, as U.S. refined copper production in 2024 is projected at 850,000 tons, meeting less than half of the demand [7][8] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver is expected to be revalued further, driven by strong industrial demand, with the gold-silver ratio potentially moving from 90 to 80 as macroeconomic factors shift [10][11]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - The crude oil market is volatile. Brent's October contract fell 0.77%. There is pressure of accelerated inventory build - up after the third - quarter peak season, and the price center may decline in the medium term. Hold a long strangle strategy for out - of - the - money options in the short term and consider short positions later [2] Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals were weak. With the clarification of US tariffs and progress in Russia - Ukraine talks, the market's risk - aversion sentiment has cooled, and precious metals are in an oscillatory adjustment phase. Wait patiently for pull - back entry points [3] Copper - Overnight, copper prices broke below the MA60 moving average. Trump included hundreds of end - products with high steel and aluminum content in the 50% tariff list. The copper market is still carefully assessing economic growth risks. Hold short positions above 79,000 for the main Shanghai copper contract [4] Aluminum and Related Products - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 19,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. It may be approaching the peak of off - season inventory build - up. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with support around 20,300 yuan. Alumina has an oversupply situation, and its price is in a weak oscillation [5] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the movement of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the alloy industry's profit is poor. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread between the spot and AL will gradually narrow [6] Zinc - In the first half of 2025, the output of major overseas zinc mines increased by over 12% year - on - year. The demand is in the off - season. Due to vehicle transportation restrictions in Tianjin, some galvanized small factories have stopped production. The supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals dominate, and Shanghai zinc has fallen for five consecutive trading days. Be vigilant against macro - sentiment fluctuations as the "Golden September and Silver October" approach [7] Lead - The consumption of lead fails to show the peak - season characteristics, dragging the price into a weak oscillation. The raw - material supply is tight, providing strong cost support. In late August, pay attention to traffic control in lead - ingot production areas and regular maintenance of primary lead plants. There is an expectation of demand recovery after the beginning of autumn and approaching the new semester [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel slightly corrected. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for six consecutive times. However, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced stainless - steel products is still poor, and the supply is expected to increase. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is advisable to enter short positions [9] Tin - Overnight, LME tin was the only base metal to close up. Indonesia's refined tin exports in July decreased by 15% month - on - month. With low overseas inventories and spot premiums, tin prices are supported. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [10] Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price is oscillating. The spot market has seen continuous sharp increases. The total market inventory is basically flat, with a decrease in smelter inventory and an increase in trader inventory. Adopt a short - term long strategy and manage risks well [11] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures oscillated and closed down. The policy details related to photovoltaics have not been updated, and the market sentiment has cooled. The terminal and downstream demand is stable, but the high - inventory pattern suppresses the spot price increase. There are opportunities to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton, but there is resistance above 53,000 yuan/ton [12] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures oscillated downward. The policy details related to photovoltaics have not been updated, and the market sentiment has declined. During the wet season, industrial silicon has a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with limited improvement in fundamentals. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13] Iron and Steel - Night - session steel prices continued to decline. The demand in the off - season is weak. The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and the inventory build - up accelerated. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils improved slightly, and the inventory build - up slowed down. Pay attention to the production - restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places as the military parade approaches [14] Iron Ore - Overnight, the iron - ore futures price weakened. The global iron - ore shipment is seasonally increasing, and the domestic arrival volume has increased. The port inventory is rising. The short - term demand is supported by high hot - metal production, but there is an expectation of hot - metal production reduction as the military parade approaches. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke prices oscillated during the day. There is an expectation of production restriction for coking plants in East China due to approaching major events. The seventh round of coke price increase has improved coking profits, and the daily coking production has slightly increased. The overall coke inventory is decreasing [16] - Coking - coal prices oscillated during the day. The production of coking - coal mines has decreased, and the spot auction market is active. The overall coking - coal inventory is decreasing, and the production - end inventory decline has narrowed [16] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon - Silicon manganese prices declined during the day. Pay attention to the shipment of South32's Australian mines. The demand from the hot - metal production is high. The weekly production of silicon manganese has increased, and the inventory has not yet accumulated. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follows coking - coal prices [17] - Silicon ferrosilicon prices declined during the day. The hot - metal production has slightly decreased. The export demand is stable, and the demand from the magnesium - metal industry has slightly declined. The supply of silicon ferrosilicon has increased significantly, and the market's spot and futures demand is good. The price follows silicon - manganese prices and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18] Shipping Index (European Line) - The current 10 - contract price of 1350 points corresponds to a spot price of about $1900/FEU. The spot price is on a downward trend, and the cargo volume is seasonally decreasing. The market is expected to remain bearish [19] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak among oil futures, while low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia is increasing, and the high - and low - sulfur spread has widened [20] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to have a diversion effect on North Asian resources. Sinopec's asphalt production has been decreasing year - on - year due to increased deep - processing load. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, the road demand is expected to recover. The BU price is expected to oscillate weakly and is likely to fluctuate narrowly between 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton for the October contract [21] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas LPG market has stabilized recently. The domestic import and refinery supply have increased, and the domestic - produced gas is under pressure. Pay attention to the sustainability of the current high - operating rate as the propane cost advantage is weakening [22] Urea - The news of urea export - policy adjustment has disturbed the market. The fundamental situation has changed little. The agricultural demand is weak, and the production enterprises' inventory is under general pressure. The market is affected by market sentiment and export news [23] Methanol - Methanol inventories at ports are rapidly accumulating. The import volume remains high, and the MTO device operating rate in East China is low. The short - term market trend is weak. Pay attention to macro and market - sentiment changes [24] Pure Benzene - The price of pure benzene declined overnight. The domestic production has slightly decreased, and the import is expected to shrink. The port inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals are improving. Consider inter - month spread trading in the third - quarter and fourth - quarter [25] Styrene - The styrene futures main - contract moving - average system is converging, and the price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides bottom support, but the single - side driving force is insufficient. The domestic styrene supply is expected to increase, while the downstream demand has an incremental expectation [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - There are both start - up and shutdown plans for propylene plants. The demand from downstream products is general, and the downstream factories purchase propylene on a need - to - buy and low - price basis. The supply of polyethylene has slightly decreased, and the demand for agricultural films is increasing. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase, and the short - term downstream demand is weak [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is in a weak operation. India's anti - dumping tax on PVC imports has increased the export competition pressure. The supply is high, and the demand is insufficient. The social inventory has been accumulating since July. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [28] - Caustic soda prices have declined from a high level. The non - aluminum downstream demand in Shandong is good, and the inventory has decreased. The overall supply has slightly decreased due to plant maintenance. The short - term price is supported by restocking demand, but the long - term supply pressure remains [28] PX and PTA - The prices of PX and PTA declined overnight as the oil price weakened. The terminal weaving and dyeing operating rate has increased, and the polyester and PTA loads are relatively stable. The PTA near - month processing margin has declined. The PX supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the valuation is expected to increase [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price declined slightly due to the decline of peripheral chemical products. The import arrival volume has increased slightly, and the port inventory is accumulating. The terminal demand shows signs of improvement. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [30] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - The short - fiber supply - demand situation is stable, and the processing margin has slightly recovered. There is limited new capacity this year, and the peak - season demand is expected to boost the market. Consider a long - position configuration on dips and a positive inter - month spread strategy [31] - The bottle - chip processing margin is oscillating at a low level. The long - term over - capacity problem restricts the processing - margin recovery space [31] Glass - The glass price declined sharply overnight. The spot market is weak, and the price is falling. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate this week. The deep - processing operating rate in Shahe is affected by the approaching military parade. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent the price from breaking the previous low [32] Rubber - The international crude - oil price declined, and the Thai raw - material prices mostly increased. The global natural - rubber supply is entering the high - production season. The operating rates of domestic butadiene - rubber plants have declined, while the upstream butadiene plants' operating rates have increased. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has decreased [33] Soda Ash - The soda - ash futures price declined sharply. The supply is expected to increase as Yuanxing has future production plans. The industry inventory is high at all levels. The photovoltaic market's fundamentals have improved, and the demand for heavy - soda ash has slightly increased. The long - term supply - demand situation is in surplus, and the price is under pressure at a high level [34] Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - As of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%. The future two - week weather in the US soybean - growing areas may pose challenges to new - season crops. China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has boosted the bean - meal price. The soybean arrival volume from August to October is expected to be around 10 million tons. The domestic bean - meal market is cautiously bullish [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Overnight, the prices of US soybeans, US soybean oil, and Malaysian palm oil declined. The domestic soybean and palm - oil prices also decreased with reduced positions. The FOB bean - palm spread has turned negative. The long - term development trend of US and Indonesian biodiesel still exists, so maintain a long - position strategy on dips, but be cautious about short - term price fluctuations [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The overseas rapeseed futures prices declined overnight, dragging down the domestic rapeseed - related products. The China - Australia rapeseed trade is a hot topic. It is expected that Australian rapeseed will arrive in China at the end of the year. The short - term rapeseed - related futures prices are expected to have a weak rebound [37] Soybean No. 1 - Overnight, the price of domestic soybeans declined. The supply has increased marginally through the auction. The demand is weak. The weather is favorable for soybean growth this week. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is narrowing. Pay attention to the weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [38] Corn - As of August 19, the成交 rate of Cofco's imported - corn auctions was low. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71% as of August 17. The domestic corn market has not seen a policy - driven structural change in supply and demand. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39] Livestock and Poultry Pigs - The short - term spot price of pigs has strengthened slightly, driving the near - month futures to rebound. In the medium term, the pig supply is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the price may continue to decline. The policy may support the price when it falls to a certain level. It is advisable for the industry to conduct hedging at high prices [40] Eggs - The egg futures price is accelerating its decline, and the short - selling funds are increasing. The spot price is weak, and the industry's over - capacity problem persists. In the medium term, the egg price needs to decline further to reduce capacity. Pay attention to the risk of short - covering after the rapid price decline [41] Cotton - The price of US cotton declined slightly. The US cotton good - to - excellent rate has increased. The Brazilian cotton harvest progress is slow. The Zhengzhou cotton price declined sharply overnight. The short - term upward momentum is weak due to weak downstream orders and expected production increase. The demand may improve in August, and the old - crop inventory is expected to be tight. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [42] Sugar - The overnight price of US sugar oscillated. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the US sugar price faces pressure. The domestic syrup import is low, and the domestic - produced sugar sales are fast with low inventory pressure. Pay attention to the weather and sugar - cane growth in the 25/26 sugar - making season. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43] Apples - The apple futures price is oscillating. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the storage merchants are actively selling. The price of early - maturing apples is high, but the quality is average. The market is focusing on the new - season output estimate. There are differences in the output forecast. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44] Wood - The wood futures price is oscillating. The overseas price has increased for two consecutive months, while the domestic price has increased slightly. The domestic supply is expected to remain low as the traders are under pressure. The log inventory is low. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45] Pulp - The pulp futures price declined sharply yesterday. The port inventory in China has increased. The domestic social - retail data in July was weak, indicating weak domestic demand. The pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The downstream demand may improve as it approaches the peak season in August. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [46] Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market declined with low trading volume yesterday. The North - Exchange 50 index reached a new high. The stock - index futures prices declined, with IH leading the decline. The brokerage firms are competing for customers through commission - rate cuts. The geopolitical pressure on the market risk - preference has eased as the Russia - Ukraine situation is moving in a positive direction [47] Treasury Bonds - The treasury - bond spot and futures prices are oscillating stably. The inter - bank funds are slightly tightened, and the non - bank institutions' financing cost is rising. The short - term bond market is difficult to recover significantly. The yield - curve steepening probability is increasing [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - This week, the macro - sentiment continued to show an increase in risk appetite. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. In the copper market, downstream orders had support around 7.8, and there were some disturbances in the scrap copper and recycled copper markets. An 8 - month supply - full pattern was expected to lead to a small inventory build - up, but the market might focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in the seasonal off - season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. An inventory build - up was expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory situations [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply - side issues included difficulties in the increase of domestic TC and an increase in imported TC. Demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience. Overseas, there might be a phased supply shortage. Short - term strategy was to wait and see, long - term was a short - position configuration, and there were opportunities for positive spreads in different aspects [3]. - Nickel's supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventories were stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel's supply decreased due to some passive production cuts, demand was mainly for rigid needs with some increased restocking, costs were stable, and inventories decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to future policies [9]. - Lead prices fluctuated this week. Supply - side issues included weak scrap production and high recycled lead costs. Demand was not strong enough to cover the supply increase, and lead prices were expected to remain low and volatile next week [10]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply - side saw domestic smelter production cuts and uncertain overseas复产. Demand was weak in some areas and there was a risk of squeezing stocks in the LME. Short - term strategy was to short at high prices, and long - term was to hold at low prices near the cost line [12]. - Industrial silicon's production in Xinjiang was less than expected, while that in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly. In the short term, there was a small inventory reduction, and in the long term, it was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [13]. - Carbonate lithium prices were strong this week due to factors such as inventory reduction and production disturbances. The core contradiction was the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - side disturbances. In the short term, prices had a large upward elasticity and strong downward support [15]. Summaries by Metals Copper - The spot price, premium, inventory, and import profit data of copper from August 13th to 19th were presented, showing changes in these indicators. The macro - sentiment and fundamental conditions of the copper market were analyzed, and the inventory situation was predicted [1]. Aluminum - Data on aluminum prices, inventory, and import profit from August 15th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, and inventory trends in August were analyzed [2]. Zinc - Zinc price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and strategies for different time horizons were proposed [3]. Nickel - Nickel price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, premium, and inventory. Supply, demand, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and investment opportunities were mentioned [6]. Stainless Steel - Price data of different types of stainless steel from August 13th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, cost, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and policy attention was emphasized [9]. Lead - Lead price data from August 13th to 19th were presented, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [10]. Tin - Tin price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including import and export profits, inventory, and position. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and investment strategies were proposed [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon price data from August 13th to 19th were provided, including basis and warehouse receipts. Production and inventory situations were analyzed, and short - term and long - term trends were predicted [13]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, basis, and warehouse receipts. Market factors affecting prices were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [13][15]