来源：国盛期货 此前，我们盘中点评中提到过，储能产业成为碳酸锂需求增长新引擎。储能产业的爆发式增长成为锂需 求的新引擎。数据显示，2025年前三季度国内储能电芯产量达355.1GWh，同比增长57.5%。储能电芯的 库销比已由2月份的1.83高位降至目前的0.8，供应持续偏紧。新能源汽车市场同样表现强劲。10月全国 新能源乘用车批发销量达到162.1万辆，同比增长18.5%，环比增长8.5%。有头部电池企业披露，当前工 厂订单已经满产，生产计划已安排到2026年。 下游磷酸铁锂需求旺盛是关键支撑。动力电池和储能领 域对磷酸铁锂的需求持续爆发，导致头部厂商订单饱满，加剧了碳酸锂市场的供需紧张。 同时，碳酸锂的库存数据也验证了市场供需紧张的局面。碳酸锂产业链各环节库存均有所下降。11月国 内碳酸锂供需缺口达到2.3万吨，整个11月去库量达到1.6万吨。这意味着，如果后期去库持续，当前的 库存水平已临近危险值。根据当前消费量，库销比已经接近1。在供需缺口持续扩大的背景下，库存持 续下降为价格上涨提供了坚实支撑。 随着宜春市对锂矿资源的整顿加码，碳酸锂市场短期供需矛盾难以缓解。在储能需求爆发和库存持续下 降的背景下， ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the electric power equipment and new energy industry narrative is based on the dual themes of "new power system construction + digital infrastructure construction" under the ongoing "dual carbon" strategy and rapid development of the digital economy [3][12][25] - The electric new energy sector has shown significant performance, with an overall increase of approximately 38.4% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 15.7% [16][18] - The report categorizes investment opportunities into two main lines: "new growth" and "high-quality development," analyzing various segments of the electric new energy industry [3][25] Group 2 - In the "new growth" category, key areas include AIDC, solid-state batteries, and humanoid robots, driven by global energy transition, technological advancements, and increasing demand [3][25][13] - The "high-quality development" category highlights storage, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, with improvements in economic viability and market conditions leading to increased demand and profitability [4][26][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state batteries, which offer high energy density and safety, and are expected to see accelerated industrialization supported by favorable policies [30][32][41] Group 3 - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the electric new energy sector, indicating a positive outlook for companies like CATL, Xiamen Tungsten, and others, with recommended ratings [5][27][28] - The analysis includes specific EPS and PE ratios for various companies, suggesting strong growth potential in the coming years [5][27][28] - The report also discusses the competitive landscape and technological advancements in the solid-state battery market, highlighting the importance of material innovations and safety improvements [30][41][45]

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：马天一/曾子栋 战略聚焦成效显著，多维突破助力跨越发展。公司历经多轮战略升级，战略重组入局锂电，聚焦乘用车 三元电池转型，再到港股上市后加速国际化，完成了从行业参与者到全球竞争者的跨越。混合所有制股 权结构与稳定专业的高管团队提供坚实支撑，国内外产业基地逐步落地，构建起覆盖动力与储能的全场 景产品体系。动力电池涵盖5C 超充、高能量密度等高端产品，储能电池中大容量电芯及储能系统开发 领先。1H25，公司营收164 亿元，同比+31.7%；归母净利润为4.7 亿元，归母净利率为2.8%，盈利水平 逐步提升。 风险提示：原材料价格大幅上涨的风险；行业竞争加剧导致产品价格大幅下降的风险；海外贸易保护政 策风险。 动储需求双线爆发，行业格局优化开启盈利改善周期。下游新能源汽车市场持续扩容，1-3Q25，中国 新能源车销量达1120 万辆，新能源渗透率攀升至46%，商用车电动化成为重要增量，叠加单车带电量 提升，有力支撑动力电池需求。储能市场高景气延续，国内招标与中标规模稳步增长，投资主体多元， 我们预计全球储能电池出货量从2025 年530GWh跃升至2028 年1343GWh。锂电行业竞 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent regulatory actions in the lithium mining sector, particularly focusing on the cancellation of mining licenses in Yichun, Jiangxi, which is expected to impact supply dynamics and market expectations for lithium prices [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - From December 15 to 16, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures (LC2605) traded above 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a market reassessment of supply compliance and disruption risks alongside recovering demand expectations [3]. - On December 15, LC2605 opened at 98,080 yuan/ton and closed at 101,060 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of approximately 699,600 contracts and an open interest of 662,200 contracts [3]. - The following day, the contract opened at 101,500 yuan/ton and closed at 100,600 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of about 597,300 contracts, indicating a strong market activity despite fluctuations in price [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau announced plans to cancel 27 mining licenses, which has raised concerns about supply disruptions in the lithium market, as Yichun is a significant source of lithium supply in China [4][6]. - Jiangte Electric announced its objection to the proposed cancellation of its mining rights, indicating ongoing negotiations and uncertainty regarding the final outcomes of these regulatory actions [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Expectations - The market's reaction to the regulatory news suggests a perception of supply disruption, although some analysts argue that the licenses in question are largely expired and may not significantly affect current supply levels [7]. - The increase in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to both optimistic demand forecasts for the coming year and the regulatory actions aimed at standardizing resource development practices [7]. - On December 15, the domestic price range for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 94,000–97,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 95,900 yuan/ton, reflecting a broader trend of price increases in the market [8]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Key variables to monitor include the final outcomes of the mining rights cancellations, the pace of lithium salt inventory depletion, and whether spot market transactions can keep up with the rising futures risk premiums [9].

Core Insights - The event titled "2025 (10th) Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and Lithium Battery Golden Tripod Award Ceremony & Qidian Research 10th Anniversary Celebration" will take place on December 18-19, 2025, in Shenzhen, China [5][6]. - The theme of the event is "New Cycle, New Technology, New Ecology," focusing on advancements in lithium battery technology and user-side energy storage solutions [5][6]. Event Structure - The event will feature various sessions, including a keynote address by the Chairman of Qidian Research, Li Zhenqiang, and multiple specialized forums on cylindrical battery technology and innovations in battery materials and processes [6][7][8]. - Notable companies participating include Ningde Times, BYD, and other key players in the lithium battery and energy storage sectors [3][6][9]. Key Topics and Presentations - The first day will cover topics such as the release of the "2025 Global Lithium Battery Industry White Paper," advancements in cylindrical battery technology, and discussions on the future of small power batteries [6][7]. - The second day will focus on user-side energy storage, including the release of the "2025 Global User-Side Energy Storage Industry White Paper" and discussions on the application of battery technology in various scenarios [8][9]. Sponsorship and Participation - The event is sponsored by various companies, including Pianneng Technology and Yifei Laser, with additional support from numerous other firms in the lithium battery and energy storage industries [3][5]. - A special dinner will be held to celebrate the 10th anniversary of Qidian Research, featuring speeches from industry leaders and the presentation of the Lithium Battery Golden Tripod Awards [9][10].

2025.12. 17 本文字数：2672，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周楠 继摩尔线程之后，又一国产GPU龙头登陆A股市场，再度点燃市场热情。12月17日，沐曦股份 （688802.SH）登陆科创板，上市首日涨幅高达692.95%。当天，三大指数悉数收涨，创业板涨超 3%。 当前，距离2025年收官仅剩10个交易日，市场调整将如何演绎？跨年行情又会否如期而至？多家券 商做出了预判。 "考虑本轮上涨行情的底层逻辑并未动摇，我们认为市场中期趋势仍然向好。"中金公司研究部国内 策略首席分析师李求索说。 对于跨年行情，第一财经梳理发现，券商首席普遍持乐观预判。国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕认为， 交易层面，保收益降仓位已步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资金回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃 成交，跨年攻势已经开始。 资金层面上，有券商提到，近期，A股成交额和换手率再度回升，显示资金正在积极寻找跨年行情的 机会。 资金面和情绪面现回暖迹象 12月17日，三大指数集体反弹，截至收盘，沪指报收3870.28点，涨1.19%；深成指和创业板指分 别收涨2.4%和3.39%。两市成交额1.81万亿，较上一交易日增加约870 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a collective rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and the ChiNext Index increasing over 3%, as more than 3,600 stocks in the market saw gains [1] - The computing hardware sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Zhongci Electronics and Huanxu Electronics hitting the daily limit, while major players in optical modules also surged [1] - The lithium battery industry chain strengthened, with Jinyuan Co. achieving two limit-ups in four days and Tianji Co. hitting the daily limit [1] - The financial sector gained momentum in the afternoon, with Huatai Securities nearing a limit-up and China Pacific Insurance rising over 4% [1] Sector Analysis - High-profile stocks experienced a collective decline, with companies like Tongyu Communication and Zhongchao Holdings hitting the daily limit down [2] - The financial sector's afternoon surge was notable, with Huatai Securities and China Pacific Insurance leading the gains, alongside other major financial institutions [3] - The market's focus on computing hardware is attributed to its "performance certainty + growth potential," with expectations that the structural transformation seen in 2025 will continue into 2026 [6] Investment Themes - The technology innovation sector is contributing positively to industry profits, with TMT and advanced manufacturing leading the gains this year [7] - Industries linked to global demand or increased overseas penetration are also showing strong performance, including non-ferrous metals, automotive, home appliances, and machinery [7] - Key areas of focus for 2026 include AI supply-demand gaps, energy storage demand recovery, and the copper market's dependence on global fundamentals [8] AI Development - The AI application sector is entering a new catalytic phase, with ByteDance's Seed team launching a new audio-video creation model that supports various tasks [9] - Recent advancements in AI applications are being driven by major players enhancing their model capabilities and frameworks, with Alibaba's upgrade of "Tongyi - Qwen" being particularly notable [10] - The overall outlook for the AI application sector is optimistic, with consumer internet and marketing-related scenarios expected to benefit first from these developments [10]

继摩尔线程之后，又一国产GPU龙头登陆A股市场，再度点燃市场热情。12月17日，沐曦股份 （688802.SH）登陆科创板，上市首日涨幅高达692.95%。当天，三大指数悉数收涨，创业板涨超3%。 当前，距离2025年收官仅剩10个交易日，市场调整将如何演绎？跨年行情又会否如期而至？多家券商做 出了预判。 "考虑本轮上涨行情的底层逻辑并未动摇，我们认为市场中期趋势仍然向好。"中金公司研究部国内策略 首席分析师李求索说。 对于跨年行情，第一财经梳理发现，券商首席普遍持乐观预判。国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕认为，交 易层面，保收益降仓位已步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资金回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃成 交，跨年攻势已经开始。 资金层面上，有券商提到，近期，A股成交额和换手率再度回升，显示资金正在积极寻找跨年行情的机 会。 资金面和情绪面现回暖迹象 12月17日，三大指数集体反弹，截至收盘，沪指报收3870.28点，涨1.19%；深成指和创业板指分别收涨 2.4%和3.39%。两市成交额1.81万亿，较上一交易日增加约870亿元。 各板块中，算力硬件概念表现活跃，中瓷电子（003031.SZ）、环旭电子（60123 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 碳酸锂强势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 108620 元/吨，较前日 上涨 8020 元/吨（+7.97%），近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 97080 元/吨，较前日上涨 1.22%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 【基差分析】当前基差为-9920 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 4890 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 【仓单情况】 ...

智通财经12月17日讯，市场集体反弹，沪指涨超1%，创业板指涨超3%。沪深两市成交额1.81万亿，较 上一个交易日放量870亿。盘面上，市场热点轮番活跃，全市场超3600只个股上涨。从板块来看，算力 硬件概念表现活跃，中瓷电子、环旭电子等多股涨停，"易中天"光模块三巨头大涨。锂电产业链走强， 金圆股份4天2板，天际股份涨停。大金融方向午后发力，华泰证券盘中一度逼近涨停，中国太保涨超 4%。下跌方面，福建板块下挫，安记食品、平潭发展跌停。截至收盘，沪指涨1.19%，深成指涨2.4%， 创业板指涨3.39%。 板块方面 算力硬件方向再度全线走强，联特科技、弈东电子、光迅科技、中瓷电子、长飞光纤等涨停，生益电 子、炬光科技、新易盛、天孚通信、太辰光、中际旭创等涨幅居前。 消息面上，报道称OpenAI正与亚马逊谈判，拟从亚马逊融资至少100亿美元，并使用亚马逊的人工智能 芯片。此外，LightCounting预测2029年全球光模块市场规模有望突破370亿美元。其中，800G光模块 2025年迎来需求高峰，全球出货量预计达1800-1990万只，同比翻倍；1.6T光模块2025年进入商用元 年，全球需求预计达250- ...