Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - US corn is in a narrow - range oscillation, with potential future cuts in yield but still high production. Import profit for foreign corn is falling. Domestic corn has different trends in different regions, with short - term strength in the northeast and stability in the north. Starch prices are mainly influenced by corn prices and downstream stocking, and the current starch market is relatively strong but may decline later. The 01 corn rebound space is limited [4][6][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data - **Futures盘面**: C2601 closed at 2243, up 8 (0.36%); C2605 at 2279, up 8 (0.35%); C2509 at 2292, up 10 (0.44%); CS2601 at 2572, up 21 (0.82%); CS2605 at 2640, up 18 (0.68%); CS2509 at 2661, up 14 (0.53%). Trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed with varying degrees [2] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, etc. had different changes today. Starch spot prices in different factories like Longfeng, COFCO, etc. remained unchanged. The basis of corn and starch in different regions and factories was also presented [2] - **Spreads**: For corn inter - delivery spreads, C01 - C05 was - 36 (unchanged), C05 - C09 was - 13 (down 2), C09 - C01 was 49 (up 2). For starch inter - delivery spreads, CS01 - CS05 was - 68 (up 3), CS05 - CS09 was - 21 (up 4), CS09 - CS01 was 89 (down 7). For cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 was 369 (up 4), CS01 - C01 was 329 (up 13), CS05 - C05 was 361 (up 10) [2] 2. Market Analysis - **Corn**: US corn is in a narrow - range oscillation. Import profit for foreign corn is falling. Northern port closing prices are rising, and northeast corn is strong. North China's corn supply is decreasing, and the price is stable. The price difference between northeast and North China corn is large. Wheat price is stable, and corn has cost - effectiveness. Domestic breeding demand is stable, and downstream feed enterprises' inventory is low. Northeast corn supply is low recently, and traders' hoarding sentiment is strong. The 01 corn is in high - level oscillation, and the spot basis is strengthening [4][6] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is decreasing, and Shandong corn is stable. Starch in Shandong and the northeast is strong. This week, corn starch inventory decreased to 106.9 million tons, a monthly decrease of 5.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.04%. Starch prices depend on corn prices and downstream stocking. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The 01 starch is oscillating strongly following corn, but there is a possibility of decline later [7] 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. Consider short - selling 01 corn lightly at high levels, and wait for 05 corn [9] - **Arbitrage**: Try to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch at high levels [9] 4. Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term accumulated put strategy with rolling operations [10] 5. Related Attachments - There are six figures including those showing corn spot prices in different regions, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 spread, corn starch 1 - 5 spread, corn starch 01 contract basis, and corn starch 01 contract spread [14][16][18]

Core Viewpoint - TianKang Biological announced the resignation of its general manager, Cheng Hui, due to approaching retirement age, while appointing Xu Heng as the new general manager [1] Company Summary - Cheng Hui's resignation was accepted by the board, and he will continue to serve as a director and a member of the Strategic and Investment Committee [1] - The company's revenue composition for the first half of 2025 is as follows: pig farming 32.2%, feed 27.51%, agricultural product processing 16.37%, corn storage 14.75%, and veterinary medicine 5.44% [1] - As of the report, TianKang Biological has a market capitalization of 9.8 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anqiu City is advancing rural revitalization through a three-pronged approach focusing on industry, regional collaboration, and party leadership, leading to increased agricultural productivity and farmer income. Group 1: Industry as the Foundation - Anqiu City prioritizes strengthening agricultural industries as the core support for rural revitalization, aiming to become the first national ecological agricultural county and transition from an agricultural city to a health food powerhouse [2][3] - The ginger industry plays a crucial role, with a stable planting area of around 200,000 acres and an annual output exceeding 1 million tons, accounting for 80% of China's ginger exports [2] - The city promotes ecological and standardized ginger cultivation, establishing a health food industrial park to enhance product value and extend the supply chain [2][3] Group 2: Regional Collaboration - Anqiu has established 15 rural revitalization zones, each with unique characteristics, to promote collective development and resource sharing among villages [6][7] - The "Wenshui Yulang Huanyu Nonggang" zone has successfully integrated agricultural, health food, and cultural resources, leading to significant increases in farmer income and productivity [6][7] - The average annual income increase for farmers in the "Wenshui Yulang Huanyu Nonggang" zone is 960 million yuan, benefiting 6,400 households [7] Group 3: Party Leadership - Party leadership is essential for rural revitalization, with initiatives like the establishment of cooperative societies and joint party organizations to enhance resource integration and industry collaboration [8][9] - The "Party Branch + Cooperative + Farmer" model has been implemented to transform small plots into productive facilities, significantly increasing farmer income [8] - The integration of party leadership with agricultural development has led to the establishment of 181 joint party organizations covering 453 administrative villages, promoting shared resources and collective growth [8][9]

Group 1 - The company, Yike Foods (301116.SZ), has been asked by investors about its export business in light of rising duck down prices due to cold weather and recent avian influenza outbreaks [2] - Yike Foods responded that its down products are raw materials and currently, there are no export operations [2]

格隆汇11月27日丨益客食品(301116.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司羽绒板块的产品为原料绒，暂时没 有出口业务。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various commodities, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price forecasts [2][3][4] - Different commodities show different trends, such as some in range - bound oscillations, some facing supply - demand imbalances, and others affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [14][20][21] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there is still a downward drive in the long - term. The market faces a greater inventory build - up expectation in Q4 and Q1 next year. The near - term risk is Russia's stance on the new peace plan [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight fuel oil prices rose due to cost - end increase. High - sulfur fuel oil may be supported by short - term supply disruptions, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken as the gasoline - diesel spread narrows [21] - **Asphalt**: Recent shipments in East and South China improved, and inventory declined. The December production plan decreased, and demand will seasonally decline. The spot price is supported at 3000 yuan/ton, but there is medium - to - long - term pressure [22] Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose to $11,000, and SHFE copper followed. The probability of a US rate cut next month increased to 85%, boosting copper prices. Short - term trading should focus on volume [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum rose slightly. After the price correction last week, downstream restocked at low prices. The industry has limited contradictions, and the price is in high - level oscillations [5] - **Zinc**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December increased to 84%, and the support at the bottom is strong due to the decline in TC. However, the domestic demand outlook is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate between 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel rebounded, but the market sentiment was cold. Stainless steel inventory decreased, but the cost support weakened. The fundamental situation is weak, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin rose to $38,000, and SHFE tin followed with increased positions. The short - term probability of a further rise increased [11] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: The night - session of the Dalian soybean meal futures followed the US soybean trend and showed a stabilizing trend. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is at a high level. South American new - season soybeans are affected by La Nina [35] - **Corn**: The night - session of corn futures continued to correct. North port corn prices are firm, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The inventory of downstream industries is low, and the replenishment intention is increasing. The 01 contract of Dalian corn futures is technically strong, and short - selling on highs is recommended [39] - **Palm Oil & Soybean Oil**: The marginal negative factors for palm oil have eased, and the change in palm oil may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [36] Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The near - month contract of the container shipping index (European line) is weak due to the weak spot market expectation. The 02 - month contract may have some recovery space if the cargo volume continues to recover. The far - month contract is under pressure from geopolitical factors [20] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is abundant, but the concentrated release of downstream demand has improved the trading atmosphere. However, the supply - surplus pattern is expected to continue [23] - **Methanol**: The near - month contract of methanol rose, and the spread strengthened. The overseas production reduction is being realized, and the port is expected to reduce inventory. It is recommended to go long unilaterally or do a positive spread [24] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in an oscillating trend. The export situation has improved, and the inventory has decreased, but the supply - demand situation is still high - supply and low - demand. Caustic soda is in a weak operation with high supply and low demand [28] - **Glass & Soda Ash**: The sales of glass in Shahe improved, and the price rose slightly. The production capacity may be further compressed. It is expected to oscillate strongly. Soda ash is in a supply - surplus situation in the long - term, and the strategy of long glass and short soda ash can be considered [32][34] - **Stock Index & Treasury Bond**: The stock index futures showed a differentiated trend, and the market is waiting for the resonance of geopolitical situation easing and Fed rate - cut expectation. Treasury bond futures closed down, and the market is worried about bond repayment risks [46][47]

Core Points - The Sudanese Minister of Industry and Trade, Mahasin, led a government delegation to the 21st session of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia from November 23 to 27 [1] - A joint statement was signed between Mahasin and the Director General of UNIDO, Gerd Müller, to support Sudan's industrial recovery plan [1] Summary by Categories Industrial Recovery Plan - The joint statement focuses on enhancing the added value of agricultural products [1] - It aims to attract investments in agricultural processing centers [1] - The plan includes reducing post-harvest losses [1] Sector Development - The initiative promotes the development of the fisheries, pharmaceutical, and green manufacturing sectors [1] - It also emphasizes providing industrial policy recommendations and national capacity building [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures are experiencing a strong oscillation, with current prices showing slight increases compared to previous trading sessions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 27, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 51.05 cents per pound and are currently at 50.06 cents per pound, with a slight increase of 0.02% [1] - On November 26, the closing price for soybean oil was 51.04 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.97% increase from the previous day [1] Group 2: Price Movements - On November 26, Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) C&F price increased by $10 per ton to $1,170 per ton compared to the previous trading day [1] - The C&F price for Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) also rose by $8 per ton to $1,156 per ton [1] Group 3: Trading Volume and Inventory - On November 26, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,598 contracts to a total of 22,029 contracts [1] - The national first-level soybean oil trading volume reached 39,500 tons on November 26, marking a significant increase of 1,875% compared to the previous trading day [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall domestic stock index shows strong resilience, with the technology sector experiencing a structural recovery and the index initially stabilizing, but the market volume continues to shrink. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. - Treasury bond futures have significantly declined due to multiple negative factors, and the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe, and pay attention to potential factors that may break the market oscillation [6]. - The Fed's Beige Book indicates an unfavorable outlook for the US economy and employment, leading to a further increase in interest rate cut expectations, which drives precious metals prices higher. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue [7][8]. - For various metals in the non - ferrous metal sector, different metals have different market conditions. For example, copper prices are supported by the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut and continuous reduction of social inventory; alumina prices are expected to bottom - out and oscillate; aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation; etc. [11][14][17] - In the black metal sector, steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; coking coal and coke prices are expected to be oscillating and bearish [43][46][49] - In the agricultural product sector, the meal market is expected to oscillate; the live pig market is expected to be oscillating and bearish [55][58] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, the A - share market mostly opened lower and oscillated throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and others showed different trends. The TMT sector was active, while the chemical industry corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell in line with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts was somewhat repaired [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption. Overseas, the Japanese Prime Minister made statements about the economy and fiscal policy [3][4]. - **Funding**: On November 26, the A - share trading volume was basically stable, with a total turnover of 1.78 trillion yuan. Northbound funds had a turnover of 2007.07 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The domestic stock index is resilient, but the market volume is shrinking. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed significantly lower across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. Long - term bonds performed weaker [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were still relatively loose [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the impact of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations and other factors, the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe. Pay attention to potential factors such as the implementation of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale, and the release of November economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economic activity has changed little, but consumer spending has declined, and employment has slightly decreased. European and Japanese economic situations also have certain impacts. The prices of gold and silver rose, with international gold closing at $4162.35 per ounce, up 0.79%, and international silver closing at $53.31 per ounce, up 3.6% [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The US economic and employment situation is not optimistic, and interest rate cut expectations are increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue. In the short - term, factors such as the Fed's officials' attitude, US economic data, and liquidity may cause market fluctuations [8]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on the Europe Route No relevant content provided. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86655 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 86705 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro**: Ukraine has basically agreed to the US - proposed peace agreement, and the probability of a December interest rate cut has returned to 80% [11]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of SMM electrolytic copper in China decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [12]. - **Demand**: As of November 20, the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The downstream demand for copper shows strong resilience [13]. - **Inventory**: LME copper and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventory decreased [13]. - **Logic**: The probability of a December interest rate cut is increasing, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. The copper price oscillated strongly on the previous day. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [14]. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and other regions were flat. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is showing signs of weakness [14]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased. The operating rate decreased, and it is expected that high - cost enterprises may reduce production in November [16]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The alumina market oscillated at a low level, and the futures main contract is testing the support at 2700 yuan/ton. The supply may contract, and the inventory accumulation rate is slowing down. It is expected to maintain a bottom - out oscillating trend [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and bearish view [17]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 21400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the market activity and actual transactions were average [17]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may slightly decline in November due to winter environmental protection restrictions [18]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided. High aluminum prices restricted downstream processing [18]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, the inventory of domestic mainstream consumption areas decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory also decreased [18]. - **Logic**: The electrolytic aluminum market showed a position - reducing oscillation, and the short - term downward momentum weakened. The market presents a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21300 - 21800 yuan/ton. If the position continues to be reduced, there may be short - term downward space, with a wide - range oscillating view [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in different regions were flat [19]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to slightly decline in November due to raw material shortages [20][21]. - **Demand**: In November, the demand for traditional automobile consumption showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and high aluminum prices restricted downstream procurement [21]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the social inventory increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy also increased [21]. - **Logic**: The casting aluminum alloy market has stabilized after a high - level correction. The cost is supported, the supply is restricted by raw materials, and the demand shows resilience. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20500 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider participating in the arbitrage of going long on AD02 and shorting AL02 when the spread is above 650, with a wide - range oscillating view [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was stable, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see mood [22]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to decrease. The TC of zinc concentrate has declined, and it is expected that the output of refined zinc may decline in November [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the three major primary processing industries were basically stable. The domestic demand is stronger than overseas, and the export space is open [24]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased, while the LME inventory increased [24]. - **Logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the zinc price oscillated strongly on the previous day. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand has shown structural improvement. It is expected to oscillate [25][26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 26, the price of SMM 1 tin was unchanged, and the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic tin ore import volume increased, and the tin ingot import volume was at a low level. The tin ingot export volume decreased [27]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In October, the operating rate of soldering tin decreased. The LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, and social inventory all increased [28]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in South China shows certain resilience. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on tin prices and continue to hold previous long positions [29]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold previous long positions and consider buying on dips, with a wide - range oscillating view in the near term [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased, and the spot of some brands was in short supply [29]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic refined nickel output decreased, but it was still at a high level [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating is stable, the demand for alloys is good, the demand for stainless steel is weak, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support but limited medium - term sustainability [30]. - **Inventory**: The domestic and overseas inventories are at a high level, and the bonded area inventory is stable [30]. - **Logic**: The Shanghai nickel futures price continued to slightly recover. The market sentiment improved due to low valuations and upstream production cuts. It is expected to oscillate and recover, but the medium - term supply is abundant, restricting the upward space [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and recovering short - term view [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang and Foshan Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel were stable, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore market is stable, the nickel iron price is under pressure, and the chromium iron market is affected by stainless steel, with a decline in raw material cost support [32][34]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic stainless steel output increased. In November, the production is expected to slightly decrease, but the supply pressure of the 300 - series remains high [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is difficult to reduce, and the warehouse receipts continue to decline [33]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel market oscillated narrowly. The cost support is weakening, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel iron prices [34][35]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton, with an oscillating adjustment short - term view [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the trading was cold [35]. - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate output increased. As of November 20, the weekly output also increased, mainly driven by lithium spodumene extraction [36]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials are expected to continue to increase. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in downstream orders after November [36]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the sample weekly inventory decreased [37]. - **Logic**: The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The market is in a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the social inventory is decreasing. However, the market divergence may increase [38]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe, with a wide - range oscillating short - term view [38]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the prices of polysilicon N - type re - feeding materials and N - type granular silicon were stable [38]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic polysilicon output is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons. It is expected to increase to about 123,000 tons in December [39]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is expected to decline month - on - month, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation [39]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [40]. - **Logic**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, the futures price oscillates upward, and the market presents a reverse market structure. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and cautious trading is recommended [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [40]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the average prices of industrial silicon in different regions were stable [41]. - **Supply**: In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to decline to about 400,000 tons due to production cuts in the southwest region [41]. - **Demand**: The demand is not optimistic. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, while the demand for aluminum alloy is good [41]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts decreased, while the factory and social inventories slightly increased [42]. - **Logic**: The industrial silicon现货 is stable, and the futures price oscillates. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention can be paid to the arbitrage window [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [42]. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel spot price slightly weakened, and the basis also weakened [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, while the iron ore price was relatively firm. The steel mill profit was slightly repaired but is expected to remain at a low level [43]. - **Supply**: From January to October, the iron element output increased. Recently, the molten iron output decreased but rebounded this period. The output of five major steel products increased [44]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export remains at a high level. The overall demand in November increased compared to October [45]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased rapidly [45]. - **View**: It is expected that the steel price will maintain an oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coil is 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton [45]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased [46]. - **Futures**:

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - There are various factors influencing different commodities, including supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Each commodity has its own unique price trends and investment outlooks based on these factors [2][3][4] - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of range - bound trading, while others may have potential for price increases or decreases depending on specific circumstances such as cost support, inventory changes, and demand fluctuations [8][14][20] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there are still downward drivers due to future inventory build - up expectations. The near - term risk is related to Russia's stance on the peace plan [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight fuel oil prices rose due to cost increases. High - sulfur fuel oil may see short - term price support from supply disruptions, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken as the gasoline - diesel spread narrows [21] - **Asphalt**: Recent shipments in East and South China have improved, with inventory reduction accelerating. However, long - term, it still faces pressure as demand follows a seasonal decline [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a high - level oscillation, and silver is relatively strong. Uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical situations remain [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper prices rose, driven by an increased probability of a US interest rate cut in the next month. Short - term trading should focus on position changes [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly. After a price correction, downstream demand showed some resilience. The market is in a high - level oscillation [5] - **Zinc**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, providing some support to zinc prices. However, weak domestic demand restricts upward movement, and it is expected to trade in a range [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel prices rebounded, but the market sentiment is still cold. Stainless steel costs are decreasing, and the fundamental situation is weak [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin prices rose, and Shanghai tin followed suit. Attention should be paid to position changes [11] - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively strong, and demand is weak as steel mills are in a seasonal production - cut period. The market is expected to be range - bound [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices may weaken as the carbon element supply is abundant and downstream demand is under pressure. Coking coal prices are also expected to be weak [16][17] - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are range - bound. Although demand has improved slightly, overall demand is still weak, and supply pressure is gradually easing [14] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene prices are rising, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upward space. Polyethylene supply is stable, and demand is weakening [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are oscillating. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda prices are also weak due to high supply and low demand [28] - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term due to potential supply cuts from maintenance. PTA is expected to follow cost - driven trends with improved processing margins [29] - **Methanol**: It is recommended to try long - side trading or positive spread trading as overseas production cuts are being realized and port inventories are expected to decline [24] - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, and although demand has increased recently, the oversupply situation is expected to continue [23] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is high. South American soybean planting is affected by weather, and it is recommended to wait for buying opportunities after a pull - back [35] - **Vegetable Oils (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil)**: Palm oil market's marginal negative factors are easing, which may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - **Corn**: Corn futures are in a correction. North port prices are rising, and there are concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast. It is recommended to short at high levels with caution [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: The pig industry is in a de - capacity phase, which supports far - month futures prices. However, short - term prices are weak, and a second bottom may form next year [40] - **Eggs**: The medium - term supply pressure of eggs is expected to ease, but short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of futures - spot price spreads [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton is slightly rising. Domestic cotton has cost support and limited upside. The cotton yarn market is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures are in high - level oscillation. Short - term prices are strong, but long - term, there may be inventory pressure on far - month contracts [44] Others - **Shipping (Container Freight Index - European Line)**: Near - month contracts are weak due to weak spot market expectations, while far - month contracts are under pressure from geopolitical factors [20] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp prices are falling. Port inventories are increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see due to uncertainties in the geopolitical situation and Fed rate - cut expectations [46] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures are falling, and there are concerns about bond repayment risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [47]