北京时间6月19日凌晨，美联储将公布最新议息决议，而市场预计此次会议仍不会降息。此前，美国总 统特朗普多次施压美联储主席鲍威尔要求降息，以降低政府债务利息负担。当前美国大量美债即将到期 的背景下，高利率环境会导致政府还债成本增高，进而加重债务负担。如今，美联储主席鲍威尔面临两 难：贸易战所导致的物价上涨，已然使得人们对于通胀预期升温。过快降息可能推升通胀预期，违背美 联储控制通胀的首要政策目标；持续不降息则可能加剧经济衰退风险，高利率环境不利于刺激经济增 长。在第一季度美国经济已出现负增长的情况下，若二季度延续负增长趋势，将标志着美国经济进入技 术性衰退。因此，美联储需兼顾多重因素，这也是当前维持货币政策不变的主要原因。 特朗普发起贸易战的借口是减少美国贸易逆差并推动制造业回流，但这两大目标均未实现，反而加剧了 美国经济衰退风险。美国制造业空心化由来已久，受人力成本过高、制造业大量转移产业链的影响，制 造业萎缩已难以逆转。美国未来的发展也因此出现了一定的不平衡：在制造业空心化的萎缩趋势下，金 融与科技领域却凭借全球资本流入和技术优势持续扩张。受益于美国科技和金融的繁荣，这两个领域的 企业和工作人员也因此受益， ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing volatility with significant movements in technology stocks, particularly in CPU, AI robots, chips, and semiconductors, while other sectors like oil, military, and digital currency are also showing activity [1] - The trading volume is reported at 1.2 trillion, indicating a focus on existing stocks rather than new investments, leading to a "stock game" environment [1] - Certain sectors such as pharmaceuticals, rare earths, and new retail are showing weakness, while some stocks have performed well, with notable gains in specific stocks reaching around 10% [2][3] Group 2 - There is a notable presence of luck in stock selection, with some investors experiencing significant gains while others face losses, particularly in sectors like rare earths [3] - The market sentiment is mixed, with some stocks achieving substantial returns, while others are struggling, indicating a challenging environment for investors [3]

环球市场动态 中 东 战 局 持 续 发 酵 中 美 关 系 延 续 稳 态 股 票 A 股周二下滑，脑机接口板块大爆 发；港股走弱，新消费、医药股大 幅下跌；欧股下挫，市场担忧美国 对以伊冲突的直接介入；美股三大 指数齐跌，华尔街担忧中东局势升 级，美国经济数据疲软业令市场承 压。 外 汇 / 商 品 中东局势升级重燃供应担忧，周二 国际油价升超 4%至近五个月高 点；金价震荡微跌，伦敦期铜走低； 美联储决策前夕美元上涨，英镑领 跌 G-10 货币。 固 定 收 益 美国国债上涨，中东局势升级提振 避险需求。美债收益率盘中短暂上 涨，收盘下跌，曲线趋平。亚洲债 券市场卖盘涌现。中国投资级债券 利差走宽 1-3 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 18 日 123 ▪ 我们判断，6 月下半月市场面临的外部地缘政治环境是：中美关系将延续稳态，关注中东地缘扰动。关于中美 关系，本次伦敦会谈更多用于解决双方面临的短期、急迫且可逆的问题，关税或并非会谈重点，但对市场而言， 日内瓦会谈以来的风险偏好缓和窗口或将延 ...

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,980, down 0.34% for the day but up 40.67% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the US remained unchanged, with year-to-date increases of 26.48% and 31.24% respectively [1] - The DAX in Germany fell by 1.30%, while the Nikkei 225 in Japan rose by 0.59% [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 0.70% for the day, but is up 43.08% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index fell by 0.25%, showing a year-to-date decline of 4.70% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index increased slightly by 0.11%, with a year-to-date gain of 11.26% [2] Chinese Stock Market Trends - The Chinese stock market experienced a pullback, with healthcare, energy, and consumer staples sectors leading the decline [3] - A-shares in biopharmaceuticals and media saw significant drops, while coal and utilities sectors rose [3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to reduce its quantitative tightening (QT) measures starting in Q2 of next year, impacting bond yields [3] Oil and Commodity Market Insights - Rising tensions in the Middle East have led to a spike in oil prices, although the medium-term outlook for oil remains pessimistic due to expected oversupply [3] - The International Energy Agency forecasts global oil production to rise to 104.9 million barrels per day by 2025, while demand is projected to decrease to 103.8 million barrels per day [3] Focus Stocks and Investment Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 24.00, representing a potential upside of 47% [4] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 40.61, indicating an 18% upside [4] - Tencent (700 HK) has a target price of 660.00, suggesting a 29% potential increase from its current price [4]

Core Points - The U.S. and the U.K. have signed a trade agreement that includes a quota of 100,000 vehicles per year for U.K. car imports with a 10% tariff [1][2] - The agreement aims to enhance bilateral trade in aerospace products and includes the removal of tariffs on U.K. aerospace products [2][4] - The U.K. has made significant concessions, including allowing increased imports of U.S. beef and grains, which may not be acceptable to other countries [3][4] Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The trade agreement includes a 10% tariff on U.K. car imports with a quota of 100,000 vehicles annually [1][2] - The U.S. will establish "most favored nation" tariff rate quotas for U.K. steel and aluminum products, contingent on U.K. compliance with U.S. supply chain security requirements [4] - The agreement also aims to facilitate tariff-free trade in certain aerospace products, enhancing the supply chain for aircraft manufacturing [2][4] Group 2: U.K. Concessions and Motivations - The U.K. has agreed to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, including beef and grains, which contradicts its previous strict agricultural standards [3] - The U.K.'s willingness to accept a 10% baseline tariff on steel and aluminum, despite previously lower average tariffs, indicates a significant compromise [3] - The U.K. seeks to strengthen its traditional alliance with the U.S. post-Brexit, despite the economic imbalance in negotiating power [3][4] Group 3: Broader Implications and Comparisons - The trade agreement serves as a potential template for other countries, although the U.K.'s concessions may not be replicable by larger economies like the EU [6][7] - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and other countries, such as Japan and the EU, are progressing slowly, with significant issues remaining unresolved [6][7] - Analysts warn that the U.S.-U.K. agreement may encourage further protectionist measures from the U.S. in future trade negotiations with other nations [7]

Group 1: Commodity Market Insights - Citigroup predicts gold prices will fall below $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, with a target range of $2500-$2700 by mid-2026 due to weakening investment demand and improved global economic outlook [1] - Citigroup expects Brent crude oil prices to trade around $70-$80 per barrel in the near term, while maintaining a long-term forecast of $60-$65 per barrel [2] - Bank of America warns of declining foreign demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, with custodial assets dropping over $60 billion since April [3] Group 2: Economic Policy and Market Impact - Morgan Stanley suggests that the "Beautiful America" bill may increase the deficit without significantly boosting economic growth, predicting a fiscal drag on GDP in the medium term [2] - Dutch Bank analysts indicate limited upside potential for the U.S. dollar, as geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices may not provide sufficient support [4] - German Bank analysts note that the recent strength of the dollar is primarily driven by rising oil prices rather than its safe-haven status [5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities forecasts continued rapid economic growth in Q2, driven by strong industrial and service sector performance, with a focus on consumer demand and investment trends [8] - CITIC Securities identifies a long-term growth trend in the controllable nuclear fusion industry, supported by favorable policies and increased financing [8] - CITIC Securities anticipates that recent policy changes in drug and medical supply procurement will benefit high-quality innovative companies in the pharmaceutical sector [8] Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - Zheshang Securities predicts a dual bull market for stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, driven by improved economic conditions and supportive policies [9] - Huatai Securities highlights the potential for a surge in oil transportation rates due to increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global shipping supply chains [10] - Tianfeng Securities recommends focusing on high-elasticity industries such as storage and AI, anticipating optimistic growth in the semiconductor sector [10]

Group 1 - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has made significant progress in addressing issues related to the management of medical insurance funds, particularly in combating illegal activities such as the resale of "returned drugs" [1] - "Returned drugs" refer to pharmaceuticals that have exited the legitimate distribution channels and re-entered the market, often through illegal means, posing risks to public health and safety [1] - The NHSA has launched a drug traceability information query function on its platform, allowing pharmacies to identify "returned drugs" through scanning, thereby ensuring the legality of drug sources [1][2] Group 2 - As of now, the NHSA has collected a total of 39.885 billion drug traceability codes to assist in combating the "returned drug" issue [2] - The NHSA plans to enhance the regulatory application of drug traceability codes, focusing on building a big data regulatory model to combat illegal drug trading and other violations [2] - The NHSA has initiated a special action to combat the production and sale of counterfeit and inferior drugs, with the first phase of verification tasks completed and several cases of "returned drugs" being addressed [2]

据报道，特朗普卫生部长罗伯特·肯尼迪计划严厉打击医药广告，威胁100亿美元市场。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the pharmaceutical theme funds, which have shown a significant increase of 3.75%, while stock index funds have experienced a slight decline. The article also notes a continued outflow of funds from stock ETFs, totaling 154.20 billion yuan, with a noticeable outflow from large-cap broad-based ETFs [4]. Group 2 - In the oil and petrochemical sector, OPEC+ increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in May, which is below the planned increase of 410,000 barrels per day. The geopolitical conflicts have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with expectations of further increases due to uncertainties in the geopolitical landscape [5]. Group 3 - The transportation sector is seeing a rise in VLCC freight rates due to escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The conflict between Iran and Israel is expected to increase the risks associated with oil transportation and may lead to a rise in compliant oil transportation demand [6]. Group 4 - In the biopharmaceutical industry, there is an acceleration in the application of AI technology and product innovation. Recent developments include the launch of AI medical models and solutions by various companies, indicating a growing trend in AI applications within the healthcare sector [8]. Group 5 - 澜起科技 (Lianqi Technology) is positioned to benefit from the AI wave, with significant growth potential as the penetration rate of DDR5 memory in the downstream market continues to rise. The company maintains a leading position in the memory interface chip industry and is a key player in setting international standards for DDR5 RCD chips [8].

Group 1: Stablecoins - The overall trend for stablecoins is showing weak divergence, with some stocks like Hengbao and Laka continuing to rise, while others like Meideng Brothers are experiencing fluctuations after initial gains [1][2] - The stablecoin sector is characterized by a low-level rebound and high-level fluctuations, indicating a focus on arbitrage opportunities within the 300 index [1][2] Group 2: IP Economy - The IP economy sector is experiencing significant divergence, with some stocks like Zhujiang showing gains while others like Yunlong are declining [2][3] - The overall expectation for the IP economy is to lower, as the sector has not shown the same strength as before, and the potential for a return to previous highs seems limited [2][3] Group 3: Oil Sector - The oil sector is showing unexpected strength, with stocks like墨龙 and 贝肯 experiencing significant gains, while some older high-position stocks are facing declines [3] - The outlook for the oil sector remains positive, with expectations of continued upward movement despite some fluctuations in specific stocks [3] Group 4: Chemical Sector - The chemical sector is seeing new stocks emerging while older ones are declining, indicating a shift towards new opportunities [4] - The focus should be on new entrants in the chemical sector, as older stocks are less likely to perform well [4] Group 5: Rare Earth Financing - The rare earth sector is experiencing fluctuations, with some stocks like Huayang hitting limits while others are facing declines [5] - There is potential for recovery in the rare earth sector, but expectations should be tempered until there is a clear upward trend [5] Group 6: Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector is facing downward pressure, with stocks like Shutai experiencing significant fluctuations [6] - The overall expectation for the innovative drug sector is to lower, as the market is shifting focus away from older stocks towards new opportunities [6]