格隆汇9月30日｜在美国总统特朗普提出结束加沙战争并为该地区带来和平的计划后，投资者情绪高 涨，特拉维夫证券交易所股价飙升，以色列谢克尔也随之升值。特拉维夫证券交易所的基准TA-125指 数在早盘开盘即上涨2%。自今年年初以来，该指数已累计上涨约30%，并在过去几周屡创新高，市场 普遍预期战争可能接近尾声。TA-35蓝筹股指数上涨1.1%；追踪未纳入TA-35、但市值最高股票的TA-90 指数跳涨3.1%；TA-建筑指数上升4.7%；TA-保险指数上涨4.2%。Mizrahi Tefahot银行首席市场经济学家 罗南·梅纳赫姆表示："在周日股市因预期将有结束加沙战争、释放所有人质的计划而上涨后，我们看到 积极情绪仍在延续。投资者现在将关注更多迹象和结果，以确认所提出的计划是否会被接受并付诸实 施。" ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Macro Construction experienced a decline of 4.31% in its stock price, with a trading volume of 1.068 billion yuan and a fluctuation of 15.02% on the day [2]. Trading Activity - The stock had a turnover rate of 9.37%, with institutional investors net selling 3.21 million yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Connect seeing a net purchase of 25.97 million yuan [2]. - The top five trading departments accounted for a total transaction volume of 307 million yuan, with a net buying amount of 5.57 million yuan [2]. - Specific trading details show that three institutional special seats were involved, with a total buying amount of 71.74 million yuan and a selling amount of 74.95 million yuan, resulting in a net sell of 3.21 million yuan [2]. Fund Flow - The stock saw a net outflow of 96.76 million yuan in main funds, with large orders contributing to a net outflow of 60.69 million yuan and a net outflow of 36.07 million yuan from big orders [2]. - Over the past five days, the main funds have seen a net outflow of 112 million yuan [2]. Margin Trading Data - As of September 29, the margin trading balance for Macro Construction was 588 million yuan, with a financing balance of 587 million yuan and a securities lending balance of 0.31 million yuan [3]. - In the last five days, the financing balance increased by 8.05 million yuan, representing a growth of 1.39%, while the securities lending balance decreased by 0.13 million yuan, a decline of 29.39% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that Chow Tai Fook's adjusted operating profit (AOP) for the fiscal year ending June 2025 is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year to HKD 4.466 billion, surpassing the bank's expectations [1] Financial Performance - Shareholder profit is projected to see a slight year-on-year increase of 4% to HKD 2.162 billion [1] - Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to rise by 1% year-on-year to HKD 7.316 billion [1] Growth Drivers - Financial services are highlighted as a key growth area for the future [1] - The company is actively expanding its financial services platform, including the acquisition of a 43.93% stake in technology-driven brokerage firm uSMART and a 65% stake in external asset management company Blackhorn [1] - The aim is to create a comprehensive wealth management ecosystem [1] Investment Outlook - CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook, believing that the company's various business segments will remain stable [1] - Anticipated rebound in logistics rental rates and benefits from the 2025 Policy Address regarding the accelerated development of the Northern Metropolis are expected to support the construction business [1] - Rapid growth in financial services is also expected to contribute positively [1] - The company is projected to see a further decline in financing costs, aiding profitability [1] - The current valuation is considered attractive, with a forecasted dividend yield of 8.4% and 8.8% for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] - The target price is set at HKD 9.42 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the fourth week of September, the new - home market in the real estate sector heated up while the second - hand home market cooled down. The "Golden September" effect remains to be seen, but the year - on - year central value is positive, and the second - hand home market in first - tier cities has shown some repair after policy relaxation. Land transactions and premiums are at a low level. [2] - On the production side, freight volume in the industrial sector remains high, coal consumption per day continues to decline, and the industry's operating rates are differentiated. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand have slightly recovered, black supply and demand are weak, and asphalt operating rate has significantly increased. [2] - In terms of external demand, throughput year - on - year remains high, and freight rates have generally decreased month - on - month but recovered year - on - year. [2] - In the consumption sector, travel enthusiasm remains resilient, automobile consumption is basically flat, and National Day travel orders are booming. [2] - In terms of prices, crude oil is significantly affected by supply and geopolitical factors, black - series prices are generally strong, and copper prices have risen due to supply - expectation disturbances. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Consumption - Travel enthusiasm is differentiated. Subway travel has decreased, the congestion delay index has increased, and flight operation rates are lower than those of the same period last year. [3][7] - Automobile consumption is basically flat, textile consumption has recovered, and express delivery collection volume is at a high level. [3][8] - The National Day travel flow and orders are booming. New - type and cross - border tourism are on the rise, and consumption and prices may increase. [3][9] 2. Real Estate - New - home transaction heat has increased, with third - tier cities leading in structure. Second - hand home market heat has declined, and high - level cities' second - hand home markets have slightly cooled down. [6][11] - Second - hand home listing prices and volumes have both decreased. [6][12] - Land market premiums and transaction volumes are at a low level. [6][12] - Last week, real estate policies continued to strengthen on the demand side, including measures in Shanghai and Dongguan. [13] 3. Production - Coal consumption per day has decreased, hydropower generation remains high, and coal prices have increased. [14][15] - Construction industry funds in place have increased year - on - year, with a differentiation between housing construction and non - housing construction funds. [16] - Cement supply and demand have increased, inventory has increased, and prices have risen. Black supply and demand are weak, inventory has decreased, and prices are differentiated. Asphalt operating rate has increased, and prices have risen. PVC operating rate has increased, and styrene operating rate has decreased. [16][17] - Freight volume heat continues, and operating rates are differentiated between upstream and downstream. [18] 4. Construction Industry - Construction industry construction funds have increased year - on - year. [16] - Cement supply and demand have improved, with demand stronger than supply, inventory has increased, and prices have risen. Black supply and demand are weak, and asphalt operating rate has increased year - on - year. [4][16][17] 5. External Demand - Port cargo throughput and container throughput remain resilient. [4][19] - Freight rates: RJ/CRB year - on - year growth rate has decreased, BDI has recovered, international route freight rates have weakened, and domestic import freight rates have increased month - on - month. [4][19][20] - South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of September and Vietnam's exports in the first half of September have shown positive year - on - year growth. [4][19] - The preliminary values of the US Markit manufacturing and service PMI in September have declined, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly fallen into the contraction range. [4][20] 6. Prices - The agricultural product index has increased, while the domestic Nanhua industrial product index and the external RJ/CRB index have decreased. [5] - Crude oil, coke, rebar, glass, and non - ferrous metal prices have increased, and iron ore prices have slightly decreased. [5][22][23]

Group 1 - Company Guizhou Kanshe Ecological Environment Technology Co., Ltd. plans to apply for a bank loan of RMB 2.8 million to support its business development, with the company providing a guarantee of RMB 2.1 million based on its 75% ownership [1] - The company has signed a maximum guarantee contract with the creditor, and this guarantee does not require additional approval from the board or shareholders as it falls within the approved guarantee limits [1] - As of the announcement date, the total guarantee amount provided by the company for its wholly-owned and controlling subsidiaries is approximately RMB 719 million, accounting for 23.97% of the company's audited net assets for 2024 [1] Group 2 - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of the company is as follows: 67.61% from the highway industry, 21.68% from the construction industry, 7.39% from water transport and other industries, 3.01% from the municipal industry, and 0.31% from other businesses [2] Group 3 - The current market capitalization of the company is RMB 2.6 billion [3]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts show divergence, with asphalt plant operating rates rebounding to historical median levels, while cement dispatch and mill operation rates remain at historical lows[2] - Industrial production maintains a high level of overall activity, with PX operating rates at historical highs and PTA rates at historical lows[2][23] - Demand in construction remains weak, with rebar and building materials demand at historical lows, and automotive and home appliance sales also underperforming[3][31] Prices - Domestic industrial products are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the Nanhua Composite Index showing an upward trend[4][43] - International commodity prices, including oil, copper, and gold, are also on the rise[4][38] Real Estate - New housing transactions in 30 major cities increased by 33% compared to the previous two weeks, with year-on-year changes of -39% and +12% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[5][58] - Second-hand housing transactions in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have shown significant recovery, with year-on-year increases of +49%, +42%, and +71% respectively[5][63] Exports - Port throughput in September increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with export growth projected at approximately +6.7% based on multiple indicator models[6][66] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen an upward trend in funding rates, with R007 at 1.64% and DR007 at 1.56% as of September 28[6][71] - The central bank has implemented a net injection of 171.1 billion yuan in recent weeks[6][73]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Province has officially released the "Technical Map of Housing and Urban-Rural Construction" to address industry transformation challenges and promote high-quality development in the sector [2] Group 1: Industry Transformation and Development Needs - The technical map aims to tackle the difficulties of industry transformation and enhance the quality of housing and urban-rural construction in Jiangsu [2] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, Jiangsu's housing and urban-rural construction system has achieved significant technological innovation, winning 2 national and 36 provincial science and technology progress awards, and adding 150 high-tech enterprises [2] - The urbanization rate in Jiangsu has reached 75.5%, indicating a shift from large-scale construction to renovation and reconstruction of older buildings [2] Group 2: Focus Areas and Key Technologies - The technical map identifies 122 key technologies across three main areas: high-quality buildings, smart construction, and resilient smart cities [3] - In the high-quality building sector, 46 technologies are categorized into 14 subcategories, including smart home technologies that enhance user interaction through AI and IoT [3] - The smart construction sector includes 23 technologies focused on BIM and construction robotics, which help alleviate labor shortages due to an aging workforce [3] - The resilient smart city area features 53 technologies, such as smart flood control systems that utilize IoT and AI for efficient emergency response [3] Group 3: Features of the Technical Map - The technical map emphasizes a comprehensive overview of the entire industry, covering real estate and construction, and utilizes various presentation formats like mind maps [4] - It targets high-potential technologies for the next 5-10 years, integrating emerging technologies like AI and big data [4] - The map also considers industry development by analyzing technology applications alongside industry scale and leading enterprises [4] Group 4: Implementation and Future Development - Jiangsu plans to promote the technical map's implementation by focusing on key technology research, aiding enterprise innovation, and supporting local industry development [5] - The government will assist educational and research institutions in determining research directions and help enterprises select suitable technology paths [5] - There will be an emphasis on collaborative innovation among industry, academia, and research to enhance the overall technological landscape in housing and urban-rural construction [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook Enterprises (659 HK) with a target price of HKD 9.42, indicating an expected upside of 11.7% from the current price of HKD 8.43 [1][4]. Core Insights - The overall performance of Chow Tai Fook Enterprises exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase in attributable operating profit (AOP) of 7% to HKD 4.466 billion, surpassing the previous forecast of HKD 4.36 billion [1]. - The financial services segment remains a key growth driver, with AOP increasing by 29% to HKD 1.242 billion, supported by a 13% growth in the marginal balance of Chow Tai Fook Life Insurance contracts [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.35 per share, maintaining the total dividend for the fiscal year at HKD 0.95 per share, alongside a stock dividend to enhance liquidity [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for FY2025 decreased by 8.1% to HKD 24.285 billion, with notable declines in logistics and construction segments [2]. - The insurance segment saw a revenue increase of 18.2% to HKD 4.081 billion, while the logistics segment's revenue fell by 11.7% to HKD 142.1 million [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA for FY2025 rose by 1% to HKD 7.316 billion, reflecting stable operational performance despite revenue declines in certain segments [2]. Segment Analysis - The financial services segment is highlighted as a future growth area, with significant investments in technology-driven brokerage and asset management firms to create a comprehensive wealth management ecosystem [1]. - The logistics segment experienced a 3% increase in AOP, driven by strong growth from China Railway International Container Transport Co., which contributed 23% to the segment's performance [1]. - The construction segment's performance stabilized post-acquisition, with a contract order book reaching HKD 58.5 billion, focusing on government projects [1]. Dividend Policy - Chow Tai Fook Enterprises aims to maintain a progressive dividend policy, ensuring long-term returns for shareholders, with a projected dividend yield of 8.4% to 8.8% for FY2026-27 [1].

Macro Economic Insights - The cumulative profit of national industrial enterprises from January to August 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, improving from a previous decline of 1.7% [4] - In August, the revenue of industrial enterprises improved slightly with a year-on-year increase of approximately 2.3%, which is an improvement of 1.2 percentage points from the previous value [5] - The profit growth rate in August saw a significant recovery of 21.9 percentage points to 20.4%, marking three consecutive months of marginal improvement [5] Industry Performance - The profit structure indicates an increase in the proportion of public utilities, with the profit share of upstream mining, midstream equipment, downstream consumption, and public utilities being 28.4%, 39.2%, 21%, and 11.4% respectively [7] - The cumulative profit of upstream industries improved by 3.8 percentage points to -9.1% year-on-year, with significant improvements in black metallurgy and non-ferrous metallurgy [7] - The "anti-involution" industries saw a larger profit improvement, with cumulative profit growth of 3.8 percentage points to -4.3% year-on-year, while non-anti-involution industries improved by 2.8 percentage points to 0.9% [7] Real Estate Sector - New housing transaction area increased month-on-month, with 20 cities showing a rise in second-hand housing transaction area [44] - The Shanghai "Good House" regulation was implemented to enhance residential quality through 17 specific measures [44][45] - The land transaction area increased year-on-year, with a decrease in premium rates, indicating a stabilizing real estate market [46] Coal Industry - The price of thermal coal rebounded above 700 yuan per ton, with a peak price of 706 yuan per ton [52] - Coking coal prices have shown a significant rebound, with a cumulative increase of 66.48% from the low of 719 yuan [52] - The report predicts that thermal coal prices will continue to recover, with a target price of around 750 yuan, while coking coal prices are expected to follow a market-driven model [53] Gaming and AI Applications - The gaming industry is experiencing a high growth cycle, with stable issuance of game licenses and a rich reserve of new games [49] - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to boost game revenue and rankings due to promotional activities [49] - Major tech companies are increasing investments in AI infrastructure, which is anticipated to accelerate the commercialization of AI applications across various sectors [50] M&A Activity - The "M&A Six Guidelines" have led to a significant increase in merger and acquisition activities, with 163 new transactions disclosed since its implementation [38][39] - The focus of M&A activities has shifted towards industrial integration and new productivity acquisitions, particularly in the hard tech sector [39] - The report highlights that the new M&A projects have shown profitability effects, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases post-merger [39] Small and Mid-Cap Stocks - Companies such as Tianyouwei, Hongjing Optoelectronics, and Huaxin Precision are highlighted as key players in their respective fields, with strong growth potential [33][34][36] - Tianyouwei is noted for its high gross margin of 37.19% and strong international sales growth [33] - Hongjing Optoelectronics is expanding into new markets such as AI hardware and industrial inspection, with a significant portion of revenue coming from new business areas [34][35]

Report Information - Report Date: September 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly (2025.9.21 - 2025.9.27) [3] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Luan Qiang [1] - Research Support: Wang Zheyi [1] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report shows that personnel flow has declined while demand has improved month - on - month. Industrial production is generally stable, personnel and freight flows have changed, consumption shows a mixed picture, investment in construction and the real - estate market has improved, exports have seen some fluctuations, and there have been some important policies and events during the period [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - class Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. - Most stock indices rose. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. - Commodities showed mixed performance. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. - Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB. The Japanese yen had the largest decline, with a weekly decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [3] 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% month - on - month, the weekly operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10%, the weekly blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47%, and the weekly crude steel output decreased by 0.67%. - In the real - estate chain, the weekly operating rate of rebar decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65%, the operating rate of float glass remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operation rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. - In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48%, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51%. - In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% [3] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of international flight operations decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volume in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. - Freight prices decreased slightly. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [3] 4. Consumption - Automobile wholesale and retail sales increased year - on - year. In the previous period, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car market wholesale and retail sales were 6.00% and 9.00% respectively, and both the 4WMA of the wholesale year - on - year growth rate and the 4WMA of the retail year - on - year growth rate increased. - The film box office and the number of moviegoers decreased. The weekly film box office decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. - Agricultural product prices showed a mixed performance. The weekly price of pork decreased by 0.31%, while the weekly price of vegetables increased by 4.23% [3] 5. Investment - Construction showed good performance. The weekly cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts, the weekly cement price index increased by 2.97%, and the weekly cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. - The real - estate market improved. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. The transaction areas of first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [3] 6. Exports - Port throughput increased slightly. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1%, and the weekly container throughput increased by 0.2%. - Most shipping indices declined. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and the CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [3] 7. Important Policies/Events - On September 22, the LPR quotation remained unchanged. - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the development of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, without involving short - term policy adjustments. - On September 24, the central bank announced an operation of 600 billion MLF on September 25. - On September 26, the central bank's third - quarter monetary policy meeting continued to emphasize a "moderately loose" monetary policy [3]