Core Viewpoint - Tianhe Magnetic Materials announced a significant investment of approximately 850 million yuan in a high-performance rare earth permanent magnet and component manufacturing and R&D project in Baotou, aligning with national industrial policies and aimed at expanding business scale and enhancing profitability [1][2][5]. Company Summary - Tianhe Magnetic Materials' wholly-owned subsidiary, Baotou Tianhe New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., signed an investment agreement for the project, which will be developed in two phases, with the first phase requiring an investment of 210 million yuan and a construction period of 18 months [2][5]. - The project will include the construction of necessary facilities, production lines, and a research center, covering an area of approximately 67 acres [5]. - The company reported a market capitalization of 12.7 billion yuan as of October 17, with a stock price of 48.06 yuan [5]. Industry Summary - The rare earth sector has gained significant attention this year, with A-share rare earth stocks becoming a focus for market funds [8]. - Analysts indicate a resonant supply-demand dynamic in the rare earth industry, driven by domestic quota management and export controls, ensuring resources are directed towards high-end applications [8][9]. - The price of rare earth minerals has been on the rise, with Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announcing price increases for the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting strong market demand [8]. - The rare earth deep processing industry is crucial for national resource security and supports the development of high-tech industries, with rare earth permanent magnets accounting for over 40% of downstream applications [7][8].

美国这几天像被踩到脚了一样跳。原因很简单，中国宣布加强稀土出口管制。财长贝森特连着好几天在公开场合"开炮"，用尽各种说法指责中国"用稀土 对抗世界"。问题是，他这些话，暴露的不是中国的态度，而是美国的慌。 被打中命门的不是别人，就是美国自己。 想想看，从矿山到精炼，从冶炼再到永磁体生产，中国掌握着全球超过90%的精炼能力和核心技术。这是几十年积累下来的，不是两三年能补回来的。美 国现在急得像热锅上的蚂蚁，到处开稀土项目，叫嚣要"国家级工程"来替代，可就算开了工，没有五到十年，也难以形成完整产业链。 其实这事的戏剧性恰恰在这儿。美国这些年干了什么？搞芯片封锁、筑"小院高墙"、把高科技当成武器。口口声声"自由贸易"，一转头就加征100%的关 税；嘴上谈合作，手里却一直在围堵中国的科技发展。现在遇到一点反制，立刻喊"对抗世界"。你说这像话吗？ 问题的根子，从来不在中国的政策，而在美国自以为可以永远控制全球的那种傲慢。 更气人的是，美国还真把自己当成稀土世界的裁判。贝森特那几天讲话特别情绪化，说中国"威胁全球供应链"。可现实是，中国还设了绿色通道、民用豁 免，根本没断供。连过渡期都安排好了，体现的是一个大国的克制。 ...

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley October 17, 2025 09:33 AM GMT 中国思考 | Asia Pacific 稀土博弈：战略还是战术？ 中国希冀稀土管控来反制美国的科技壁垒。但长臂管辖机制 尚属初期，执行或需反复磨炼。战术上，有中美经过磋商局 面缓释的可能。但战略上，双方在科技领域的竞争性对抗格 局将持续深化。 中国近期收紧了稀土管控：自12月1日起，境外生产的任何含有中国原产稀土且价 值比例达到0.1%及以上的，必须获得出口许可证。另外，对于最终用途为研发、 生产14纳米及以下逻辑芯片的出口申请，需逐案审批。对此，美国已威胁在11月1 日前加大对华关税和科技反制。中方选择在APEC领导人会晤前夕出台该举措，引 发了诸多疑问：此举背后有何战略考量？稀土长臂管辖效力如何？中美贸易摩擦 未来走向？我们在此逐一解答。 问题一：为何现在升级稀土管控？ 我们认为此举将进一步完善中国的出口管制框架⋯⋯事实上，考虑到美国对华的 贸易冲突和技术封锁升级，以及全球稀土供应链"去中国化"进展缓慢，中国政 府自今 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry is currently experiencing a high-level fluctuation, awaiting demand recovery and liquidity easing to trigger a main upward trend in prices [1][3][13] - The expectation of a soft landing for the US economy, along with the first interest rate cut, has stabilized overseas demand, but the main upward wave in non-ferrous metal prices has not yet started [1][3] Key Points and Arguments Market Outlook - The performance expectations for various non-ferrous sub-sectors in 2026 are generally optimistic, with an expected increase of approximately 20% or more [1][4] - The anticipated main upward wave is expected around the end of Q1 2026, driven by interest rate cuts, the end of the US balance sheet reduction, and overseas reconstruction demand [1][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions have normalized, reducing their impact on market sentiment, but the supply-side constraints are stronger than demand influences [1][6] - It is expected that most metals will remain in a supply-demand imbalance in 2026, with supply constraints being more definitive [1][6] Specific Metal Insights - **Gold**: Short-term trading is overheated, with valuations stretched. A potential adjustment is expected after geopolitical events cool down, but long-term prospects remain positive due to economic recovery and inflation [1][7] - **Copper**: Short-term demand is suppressed by high prices, but mining and smelting companies may reduce production, leading to a supply-demand imbalance from Q4 2025 through 2026 [1][8][9] - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum sector is recommended as a top investment choice due to its strong dividend attributes and resilience in profits, with a significant upside potential if prices rise [1][10][11] Small Metals Perspective - **Cobalt**: Inventory is decreasing, indicating potential for price increases [2][12] - **Lithium**: Currently under pressure but nearing a bottom in supply-demand dynamics, strategic positioning is advised [2][12] - **Tungsten**: Long-term outlook is positive due to supply shortages and geopolitical factors [2][12] Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment for the non-ferrous metals industry remains optimistic, with recommendations to actively monitor and allocate resources to various metal sectors to capitalize on future growth opportunities [1][14] - The copper market is expected to see a price increase and earnings per share (EPS) growth, with mainstream companies' valuations returning to reasonable levels [1][9][14]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities believes that the bull market logic remains intact despite the recent market consolidation, driven by capital market reforms and structural prosperity [1] Market Conditions - Following a peak in trading activity in the computing power sector in early September, the market has entered a consolidation phase characterized by high capital rotation, index stagnation, and reduced trading volume [1] - The current market conditions are attributed to the failure to meet the criteria for ending the bull market consolidation, ongoing uncertainties in US-China relations, and reduced volatility ahead of key meetings [1] Investment Strategy - The company suggests a shift in investment style, with short-term focus on "countermeasures + risk aversion" and a year-end focus on dividend and technology styles [1] - Key sectors to watch include dividends, non-ferrous metals (rare earths, precious metals), large financials (banks, insurance), steel, agriculture, AI, batteries, chips, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1]

Group 1 - The report concludes that the adjustment space for the index is limited, maintaining a judgment of sideways fluctuations and continued strength. The recent market pullback is attributed to strong short-term profit-taking motivation and a cautious stance amid uncertainties between China and the US. However, the report believes that the factors driving profit-taking are temporary, and the attractiveness of the equity market and long-term investor confidence remain unchanged. It is anticipated that the situation between China and the US will stabilize, with limited adverse effects on the market [3][12]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes continued high attention to technology as the main theme for investment opportunities. It suggests focusing on low-positioned self-controlled sectors (such as software), technology related to the 14th Five-Year Plan (including quantum technology, deep-sea economy, and brain-computer interfaces), and innovative pharmaceuticals. The report advises avoiding equipment-related sectors and previously high-performing technology companies, which have seen significant pullbacks recently. This ongoing correction is expected to enhance the attractiveness of core companies within these sectors, gradually attracting funds for reallocation [4][13]. Group 3 - In non-technology sectors, the report expresses a positive outlook on strategic metals, ranking them as follows: gold > rare earths and other minor metals > copper. For gold, the dual benefits of deteriorating fiat currency credit and safe-haven demand are expected to continue driving prices, despite short-term pullback risks. The strategic value of rare earths is anticipated to rise due to upgraded export controls on items and technologies. In the case of copper, demand is expected to increase in the medium term due to global grid upgrades, data center expansions, and the proliferation of electric vehicles, while ongoing disruptions in upstream mining will significantly exacerbate supply shortages, leading to a potential rise in copper prices [5][14].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations, with the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) showing a high of over 2% before closing down 1.69% on October 17, 2023, indicating volatility in the sector [1]. Market Performance - The Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) had a total trading volume of 57.74 million yuan and a current scale of 606 million yuan as of October 16, 2023, with an average daily trading volume of 12.2 million yuan in October [1]. - Among the top-performing stocks, silver nonferrous leader Baiyin Nonferrous hit the daily limit, while lithium leaders Shengxin Lithium and Zhongfu Industrial both rose over 2% [3]. Key Stocks and Trends - The top ten stocks in the ETF's index include five gold leaders, with Western Gold rising over 3% and Zhongjin Gold increasing over 2% [3]. - Conversely, stocks like Bowei Alloy and Chuangjiang New Materials saw declines exceeding 6%, negatively impacting the index [3]. Gold Price Influences - International gold prices are approaching 4,400 USD/ounce, driven by three main factors: 1. The historical performance of gold during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycles, with an average increase of 6% within 60 days of such announcements [4]. 2. Increased demand for gold due to heightened risk aversion from the U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, 2023 [5]. 3. Ongoing de-dollarization trends and credit risks associated with U.S. debt, leading to increased gold purchases by central banks, with global official gold reserves reaching a record high of 36,274 tons by June 2023 [5]. Future Gold Price Predictions - Some institutions, including Bank of America, predict that gold prices could reach 6,000 USD in the spring of 2024, citing low current allocations of gold in investment portfolios [6]. - The World Gold Council indicates that both retail and central bank gold holdings remain significantly below historical highs, suggesting potential for future growth [6]. Sector Opportunities - The rare earth sector is expected to perform well, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and Shenghe Resources projecting substantial profit increases in their upcoming quarterly reports [7]. - In the lithium sector, advancements in solid-state lithium battery technology are anticipated to boost demand, with leading companies maintaining a high self-sufficiency rate in lithium production [7]. - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, particularly from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which may tighten global copper supply and drive prices higher [7]. Investment Strategy - The Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) offers a diversified exposure to various nonferrous metals, including copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, which can mitigate risks compared to investing in single metal sectors [9].

以下文章来源于张湧说财经 ，作者Peter Zhang 前瞻的视角、通俗的语言、深刻的洞见、大众的立场 作者： Peter Zhang 来源： 张湧说财经 -------------------------------- 稀土对现代科技的重要性，可能要比大部分人想象的更大； 而中国对稀土产业链的控制力，也要比大部分人想象得更加强大。 张湧说财经 . 这就是为什么，稀土这个事，能引起如此广泛关注的核心逻辑链条。 01 稀土重要，主要是因为磁铁很重要。 稀土并不是制作磁铁的材料，而是可以改变磁铁性能的一种" 添加剂 "。 普通的磁铁存在遇热软化、容易消磁、磁力弱等问题，添加了稀土之后，这些弱点就能得到克服。 也就是我们常说的"稀土永磁"。 经过稀土加强之后的磁铁，才能应用到电动汽车、风能发电、手机、耳机等上面； 尤其是一些传感器离不开稀土，传感器是用于感知声、光、温度等信号的器件，在机器人领域不可 或缺； 制造芯片的光刻机也需要精密的磁力控制； 还有军事领域，比如航空发动机、火箭推进器、军用飞机、声纳装置…… 上面这些领域的共同点就是，都是高科技领域，并且都离不开稀土"加持"之后的磁铁。 一般的金属，比如金银铜， ...

没有中国稀土，美国从军工到民生，面临的不是"困难"，而是系统性瘫痪。 稀土这张牌，成了美国政府最头疼的问题，但不能视而不见，必须解决。 大豆，中国不买，美国政府花个百来亿补贴应付一下也就过去了，稀土不行，美国几乎所有的军工、高 科技、汽车等等产业都需要它，量还很大，而且，大部分需求只有中国能满足。 不用关注美国又在哪里哪里合作开发稀土矿，最后挖出来的矿，还得拿到中国来提炼，不然，那就是一 堆矿，以美澳西方还掌握的提存技术，根本就不能满足高端产品的性能需求。 前几天，白宫那些官员包括总统还对中方颐指气使，恼羞成怒，后来又一个个出来说想好好谈谈。 形势比人强啊，他们发现，中方这种稀土管制可能真的要长期执行了，那还有美国产业的活路吗？军工 该怎么办？所以急疯了。 但是，他们又不敢过来抢，没那个能力和胆子，于是，也只能做一些无能狂怒的动作了。 2018年特朗普发动贸易战时，大概没想到七年后的今天，局面会彻底反转。 那时候他以为，没了美国的技术和市场，中国芯片产业会停滞，科技发展会被掐住脖子。 结果呢？ 七年过去，中国不仅成了全球芯片出口第一大国，还反过来用一张"稀土牌"，打得美国毫无还手之力。 现在不是"中国离不开美 ...

如今，稀土在全球工业体系中的地位愈发重要，甚至远超当年石油的影响。石油虽可通过增加开采来补充产能，但稀土情况不同。全球稀土资源虽有分布， 可其开采、提炼等技术含量极高。有该国科学家称，没有五到十年、千亿美元的投入，根本无法攻克相关技术难题。稀土几乎涉及该国全部工业领域，而华 尔街的繁荣也依赖这些工业的支撑。一旦相关工业停滞，市场将失去重要支撑，该国经济衰退风险加剧，国债利息偿还也将面临巨大压力。 近日，市场有观点将当下稀土相关局势与70年代石油危机对某国经济的影响进行对比，认为此次稀土问题带来的冲击可能更为严重。回顾70年代，因第四次 海湾战争）与伊朗局势动荡，石油价格在近十年内从每桶2.7美元飙升至40美元，涨幅近17倍。受此影响，当时某国股市遭受重创，道琼斯指数从1973年初 的1000点一路跌至1974年底的约500点，跌幅接近一半。同时，黄金、银价格涨幅超7倍，铝价上涨1.6倍，铜价上涨68％，大豆也上涨51％。由于石油是西 方世界工业体系的关键要素，该国陷入严重滞胀困境。 基于此，有分析人士认为，在巨大的利益损失面前，该国高层必然会重新考虑策略，回到谈判桌前。 此时，相关方应保持沉默，无论对方有何言 ...