以下文章来源于硬AI ，作者硬ai 硬AI . AI时代，快人一步~ 来源 | 硬AI 科技巨头财报季来临，市场似乎很自满，高盛警告仍有风险。 自4月低点以来，标普500指数已上涨26%，主要由科技股推动。未来两周内，科技板块ETFXLK 指数中50%的权重股票将公布业绩。本周三，谷歌母公司Alphabet和特斯拉将率先公布二季度业 绩，IBM和德州仪器等也将陆续登场。 值得警惕的是，高盛数据显示， 当前市场对科技股财报日的预期波动率已降至20年来最低水平， 仅为4.7%，而这种异常的市场平静往往暗示着潜在风险。 软件板块呈现出与半导体相反的趋势， 高盛数据显示该板块多空比例降至多年低点。 除了微软 和甲骨文等头部公司外，市场对软件板块整体情绪持续下滑，主要原因是AI对企业和云软件业务 长期影响的不确定性。 微软获得机构持仓集中度评级9分，今年市值增加6500亿美元至接近4万亿美元，成功突破18个月 的盘整格局。 投资者预期其Azure业务本季度增长将达到30%以上。 此外，高盛分析师还指出，科技板块目前在标普500中的权重已达到约34%，市值约18.5万亿美 元， 这一集中度已匹敌1999-2000年科技泡 ...

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures rising by 0.44%, S&P 500 futures by 0.35%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.15% [1] - European indices also show positive movements, with Germany's DAX up 0.59%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.47%, France's CAC40 up 0.99%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.88% [2][3] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil has decreased by 0.61%, trading at $64.91 per barrel, while Brent crude oil has fallen by 0.66%, trading at $68.14 per barrel [3][4] Economic Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates until March 2026, maintaining the current target rate of 4.25%-4.50% due to rising inflation and a weaker job market [5] - Goldman Sachs warns that the US benchmark tariff rate may rise to 15%, potentially increasing inflation to 3.3% [6] Meme Stocks - Barclays has raised concerns about the resurgence of meme stocks, indicating that the market sentiment is excessively high, with stocks like Kohl's and Opendoor seeing significant price increases [7] Small-Cap Stocks - The Russell 2000 index is approaching a "golden cross," indicating a potential upward trend for small-cap stocks, which have outperformed larger indices recently [8][9] Individual Company News - Tesla's new car registrations in California have declined for the seventh consecutive quarter, with a 21% drop in Q2 and a 37% drop for the Model Y [10] - Texas Instruments reported a 16% year-over-year revenue increase to $4.45 billion, but expressed uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on future sales [11] - SAP's Q2 revenue was €9.027 billion, slightly below expectations, with cloud revenue growth slowing [12] - AT&T's Q2 revenue exceeded expectations at $30.85 billion, but its full-year earnings guidance fell short [13] - Nokia has lowered its profit guidance for the year due to the impact of tariffs and a weakening dollar [14] - Starbucks is introducing free study rooms in select locations in China to combat increasing competition [15]

Group 1 - On July 23, 2025, Tencent Holdings (00700), Guotai Junan International (01788), and Alibaba-W (09988) were the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with transaction amounts of 6.344 billion, 5.245 billion, and 4.441 billion respectively [1] - In the Southbound Stock Connect for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Tencent Holdings (00700), Alibaba-W (09988), and Meituan-W (03690) also ranked as the top three, with transaction amounts of 4.119 billion, 2.820 billion, and 2.129 billion respectively [1] Group 2 - In the Southbound Stock Connect (Shanghai-Hong Kong), the top active trading companies included Tencent Holdings (00700) with a net buy amount of -0.177 billion, Guotai Junan International (01788) with +0.104 billion, and Alibaba-W (09988) with -0.416 billion [2] - In the Southbound Stock Connect (Shenzhen-Hong Kong), the top active trading companies included Tencent Holdings (00700) with a net buy amount of -0.952 billion, Alibaba-W (09988) with +0.618 billion, and Meituan-W (03690) with -0.195 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's stock surged nearly 4.5% in a single day, surpassing 550 HKD, marking a four-year high and re-entering the 5 trillion HKD market cap club, indicating strong investor confidence without any major announcements or policy changes [1][6]. Group 1: Market Drivers - The first driver is the transformation of AI from a concept to a revenue generator, with WeChat's search function integrating DeepSeek, resulting in an 18% increase in ad precision and a 15% rise in cloud service customer retention [3]. - The second driver is the resurgence of Tencent's gaming empire, with game revenues reaching 59.5 billion HKD in Q1, accounting for over 30% of total revenue, showcasing a strong cash flow generation capability [4]. - The third driver is the significant share buyback program, with 112 billion HKD repurchased last year and an additional 80 billion HKD planned this year, potentially reducing the share count by 30% over ten years, effectively rewarding shareholders [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The upcoming Q2 report on August 13 will be critical; if AI monetization and gaming growth exceed expectations, the stock could continue to rise, but there is a risk of a pullback if positive news is priced in [6]. - Tencent is viewed as the embodiment of the Chinese internet index, with a comprehensive ecosystem in social media, payments, gaming, AI, and cloud computing, positioning it at a valuation inflection point [6]. - Analysts have varying target prices for Tencent, ranging from 534 HKD to 648 HKD, but there is a consensus that the stock is undervalued, with a current PE ratio of 14.8, which is 25%-40% below the reasonable range [6].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance on July 23, with the Hang Seng Index rising 408 points, or 1.62%, closing at 25,538, marking a three-year high and the fourth consecutive day of gains [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a significant increase of 2.48%, closing at 5,745, with six out of the top ten stocks by trading volume being technology stocks [1][3] - Tencent Holdings (700.HK) rose by 4.94% to close at 552, while Kuaishou-W (1024.HK) surged 7.08% to 77.9, reaching a 52-week high, and Alibaba-W (9988.HK) increased by 2.46% to 120.9 [3] Group 2 - The approval of 127 domestic and 7 imported online games in China in July positively impacted stocks like Baidu-SW (9888.HK) and NetEase-S (9999.HK), which rose by 6.08% and 2.59% respectively [4] - The market sentiment was buoyed by expectations of improved Sino-U.S. relations, leading to significant gains in Chinese financial stocks, with HTSC (6886.HK) up over 4% and China Life (2628.HK) and CITIC Securities (6030.HK) rising over 3% [5]

Market Overview - On July 23, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rally, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.62% to close at 25,538.07 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 2.48% [2][3] - The total market turnover for the day was 333.07 billion HKD, with a net outflow of 1.32 billion HKD from southbound funds [2] Tencent Holdings - Tencent Holdings saw a notable increase of 4.94%, closing above 550 HKD per share, marking a new high in over four years, with a market capitalization of 50,594.48 billion HKD [6][5] - The company responded to news regarding the discontinuation of the WeChat real-time intercom feature, stating that a new voice input function has been added to enhance user experience [8] Technology Sector - Internet technology stocks collectively surged, with Kuaishou-W rising by 7.08% and Baidu Group-SW increasing by 6.08% [3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index's performance reflects a year-to-date increase of 28.59% [3] Chinese Brokerage Stocks - Chinese brokerage stocks showed strong performance, with notable gains from Guolian Minsheng (5.46%), Xingsheng International (5.17%), and Zhongzhou Securities (4.85%) [11] - The securities industry is currently benefiting from multiple favorable factors, including a 33% year-on-year increase in new A-share accounts and a significant rise in IPO numbers and financing scale in the Hong Kong market [13] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector was active, with China Life rising by 3.34%, contributing to a year-to-date increase of 51.44% [15] - According to research from China International Capital Corporation, the net profit growth rate for the Chinese insurance industry is expected to be 7.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [18] New Energy Vehicle Sector - NIO-SW experienced an increase of 8.97%, driven by the announcement of dynamic test drive experiences for its new model, the L90, which is set to launch soon [20] Cement Sector - The cement sector faced a downturn, with Huaxin Cement dropping by 9.37% and other related stocks also declining due to a collective pullback in the Yajiang Hydropower Station-related sector [21]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings has shown significant stock performance and growth in revenue, particularly in AI investments and marketing services, indicating a strong market position and future potential for growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of July 23, Tencent's stock price reached 552 HKD per share, marking a nearly four-year high, with a market capitalization of 5.06 trillion HKD [1]. - The Hang Seng Index has also seen an increase, surpassing 25,000 points, with Tencent's stock price rising over 30% year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 of this year, Tencent reported revenue of 1800.22 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a non-IFRS operating profit of 693.2 billion CNY, up 18% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross margin for Tencent in Q1 was 56%, reflecting a 3 percentage point increase compared to the previous year [1]. Group 3: AI Investments - Tencent has been actively investing in AI, with plans for a capital expenditure of 10.7 billion USD in 2024, which is about 12% of its revenue for that period [2]. - The company has developed its own AI model and integrated it into its applications, although there has been a decline in downloads for its AI app, Tencent Yuanbao, in recent months [2]. Group 4: Marketing Services Growth - Marketing services revenue increased by 20% year-on-year in Q1, driven by AI upgrades to the advertising platform and optimizations in the WeChat transaction ecosystem [3]. - The CEO of Tencent stated that AI capabilities have significantly contributed to the performance of advertising and gaming businesses, suggesting a positive impact on overall revenue [3]. Group 5: Share Buyback - Tencent repurchased 307 million shares last year, totaling 112 billion HKD, and plans to repurchase at least 80 billion HKD worth of shares by 2025 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent surge in Hong Kong's stock market, particularly in technology and resource sectors, driven by macroeconomic conditions and government policies aimed at stimulating growth [1][4][16]. Group 1: Market Performance - Tencent, a trillion-dollar company, saw a 4.5% increase, while the Hong Kong broker ETF rose nearly 2.9% [1]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index and various sectors, including metals, coal, infrastructure, and agriculture, have shown a consistent upward trend [4]. - Notable gains were observed in companies like China Energy Construction and Dongfang Electric, with some stocks experiencing over 20% increases, and Dongfang Electric even exceeding 60% in a single day [4][5]. Group 2: Government Policies and Macro Conditions - The recent surge is linked to the government's anti-involution policies and significant infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project [4][7]. - The macroeconomic environment has changed significantly compared to previous years, influencing market liquidity and investment behavior [8][16]. - The government's control over the Shanghai Composite Index is evident, with a focus on stabilizing the market and encouraging a rotation of capital from high-performing to underperforming sectors [12][13]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The article identifies three potential market scenarios based on global economic conditions: demand bear market, demand structure bull market, and demand comprehensive bull market [16]. - Recent trends indicate a shift in investment towards lower-priced stocks, including technology and previously undervalued sectors like liquor companies [13][17]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding institutional investment strategies during this volatile market phase to avoid losses [17].

证 券 研 究 报 告 关注显著低配的顺周期资产 2025Q2被动和主动权益型公募基金持股分析 证券分析师：林丽梅 A0230513090001 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 王胜 A0230511060001 研究支持： 冯彧 A0230123080001 2025.7.23 主要结论 ◼ 一、被动型基金(ETF)规模再创新高。 ✓ 2025Q2股票型ETF当前总规模约为3万亿元，持股市值占比达到3.7%，创历史新高。主动权益型公募基金持股市值在2021 年达到最高峰（6.2%）后一路下行，25Q2降至3.0%。25Q2宽基ETF中主要是沪深300、中证1000份额提升显著，分别增 加241和115亿份。在行业ETF中，主要是银行、白酒、半导体、人工智能、机器人、军工、黄金和稀土ETF份额环比25Q1 提升显著。 www.swsresearch.com 2 ◼ 二、港股：相关ETF规模提升显著，主动权益对港股配置续创新高。 ✓ 港股类ETF份额环比增加显著，主要系互联网、创新药、金融、高股息等带来的增量贡献。25Q2港股类ETF份额环比25Q1 增加383亿份， ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are optimistic about Google's Q2 earnings report, expecting revenue to exceed $90 billion, driven by strong search business resilience and AI features boosting query volume [1][4][7]. Financial Performance Expectations - Market expectations for Google's Q2 revenue are around $80 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share projected at $2.18, up 15% [2][7]. - Citigroup predicts revenue could reach $93.7 billion, with YouTube ad revenue expected to grow 10% to $9.529 billion [7]. - Evercore forecasts even higher, estimating Q2 revenue at $95 billion, with operating profit at $31.5 billion and earnings per share at $2.21, surpassing market expectations [7][4]. Search Business Resilience - Google's search revenue is projected to grow 8.8% to $52.754 billion, maintaining its status as a core revenue driver [10][12]. - AI Overviews feature has increased query volume by over 10%, with monthly active users exceeding 1.5 billion [10]. - 85% of surveyed users consider Google their primary search engine, with 68% finding Google's AI features more effective than traditional search [12][14]. Cloud Business Outlook - Evercore anticipates Q2 cloud revenue of $13.1 billion, a 26.8% year-over-year increase, despite GPU supply constraints [16]. - Citigroup expects cloud revenue to grow 27%, emphasizing the need for continued infrastructure investment to meet AI service demand [16]. YouTube and Advertising Insights - YouTube's share of TV streaming viewing reached a record 12.8%, significantly outpacing competitors [16]. - Evercore projects YouTube revenue growth of 10%, aided by new GenAI features that enhance user engagement [17]. - Advertising budgets are showing moderate year-over-year increases, with a shift towards channels perceived as resilient to macroeconomic pressures [17]. Stock Valuation and Market Sentiment - Evercore sets a target price of $205 for Google, indicating the stock is undervalued at $191, with a reasonable P/E ratio forecasted for 2026 [17]. - Analysts view Google as a top pick among large-cap internet stocks based on deep value analysis [17][18]. Legal and Regulatory Risks - Ongoing antitrust litigation poses significant uncertainty, with potential severe remedies suggested by the U.S. Department of Justice [18][19]. - The uncertainty surrounding the legal outcomes is seen as a drag on stock performance [19].