Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on the unilateral investment in ethylene glycol (EG) [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, some domestic EG plants have reduced their production preventively, resulting in a loss of 900 - 1000 tons of EG production per day. With the expectation of reduced near - term supply, the EG month - spread is strong [2]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic shows that the domestic EG production load is at a high level, and there are concerns about further expansion of the impact of plant production cuts. Overseas supply may be further reduced due to the situation in Iran. On the demand side, post - holiday demand is gradually recovering, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment and textile and clothing export orders after the reduction of nominal tariffs [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4078 yuan/ton (up 53 yuan/ton, +1.32% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3974 yuan/ton (up 46 yuan/ton, +1.17% compared to the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was - 52 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [2]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 61 US dollars/ton (up 2 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 787 yuan/ton (up 178 yuan/ton month - on - month) [2]. International Price Difference - The report mentions the international price difference of EG (US FOB - China CFR), but no specific data is provided [21]. Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The report does not provide specific data on downstream sales and operating rates, but only lists relevant figures such as long - filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, etc. [22][25][29]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 1.002 million tons (up 20,000 tons month - on - month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 108,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 16,000 tons. It is expected that the main port inventory will remain stable [2].

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 5 日星期四 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 1 元至 1822 元/吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, etc. It assesses the market trends, fundamentals, and offers trading suggestions for each commodity, with geopolitical factors significantly impacting the market [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Status**: PX, PTA, and MEG are in a high - level volatile market. PX and PTA futures closed higher, with PX at 8088 yuan/ton (up 1.30%) and PTA at 5694 yuan/ton (up 1.53%). MEG rose 1.32% to 4078 yuan/ton [4]. - **Suggestions**: For PX, with geopolitical conflicts raising costs, exit long positions around 8200 - 8300, and reduce 5 - 9 spread positions on rallies. Hold the strategy of going long PX and short PTA. For PTA, exit long positions around 5700 - 5800 and close 5 - 9 positive spreads. For MEG, exit long positions around 4200 - 4300, and close 5 - 9 positive spreads [9][10]. Rubber - **Market Status**: The rubber market is oscillating strongly. Futures prices showed some fluctuations, and the spot market prices of some varieties declined slightly. The inventory in Qingdao increased, and the tire industry faced a situation of differentiated production and sales [12][13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [12] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Status**: The center of the synthetic rubber market is moving up. The price of butadiene increased, and the inventory of butadiene rubber decreased. It is expected to be strong in the short - term due to geopolitical conflicts and cost factors [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [18] LLDPE and PP - **Market Status**: For LLDPE, the expectation of reduced cracking supply is increasing, and the short - term trend depends on geopolitics. For PP, C3 raw materials remain strong, and PDH device reduction continues. The supply of polyolefins is expected to shrink, and the downstream purchasing rhythm has slowed down [19][20][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: LLDPE: 1; PP: 2 [22] Caustic Soda - **Market Status**: Caustic soda is in a strong - oscillating market. The export of caustic soda from the Middle East is interrupted, and South Korean chlor - alkali plants are reducing production. The downstream is inquiring in China, and the short - term hoarding demand has increased [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [26] Pulp - **Market Status**: The pulp market is oscillating. The spot market is stable, with high port inventories and weak downstream demand. The price of household paper is stable [31][32]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [30] Glass - **Market Status**: The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price declined slightly, and the market demand is slowly recovering, with inventory accumulating [33][34]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [34] Methanol - **Market Status**: Methanol is in a high - level volatile market. The spot price index increased, and the port inventory was basically stable. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be strong first and then weak, with the inflection point depending on the intensity of geopolitical conflicts [39][40]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [41] Urea - **Market Status**: Urea has entered a short - term oscillating pattern. The enterprise inventory decreased, and due to policy restrictions on price increases, it is expected to oscillate [44][45]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [45] Styrene - **Market Status**: Styrene is in a strong - oscillating market. Geopolitical risks have increased costs, and the inventory pressure in March is not large, with exports higher than expected [48]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [47] Soda Ash - **Market Status**: The spot market of soda ash has changed little. The futures price increased slightly, the supply is high, and the downstream demand is average [51]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [51] LPG and Propylene - **Market Status**: LPG is strongly affected by short - term geopolitics, and propylene's cost is affected by geopolitics, with a tight fundamental situation. The futures and spot prices of LPG and propylene have changed, and the PDH start - up rate has decreased [53]. - **Trend Intensity**: LPG: 1; Propylene: 1 [57] PVC - **Market Status**: PVC is in a range - bound market. The cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased due to the Iranian situation, and South Korean chlor - alkali plants are reducing production. However, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is weakly recovering [61]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [62] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Status**: The fuel oil market had a slight night - session pullback, and the price volatility increased. The short - term trend of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot decreased again [64]. - **Trend Intensity**: Fuel oil: 1; Low - sulfur fuel oil: 1 [64] Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market Status**: The volatility of the container freight index (European line) has declined, and it is mainly oscillating. The contract price fluctuated, and the impact of geopolitical events on the spot market includes emotional and supply - demand aspects. The demand is in the off - season, and the supply in March and April is relatively stable [66][77][78]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [80] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Market Status**: Geopolitics has raised costs, and both staple fiber and bottle chip are short - term strong. Futures prices increased, and the spot price also rose, but the sales rate of staple fiber decreased [81][82]. - **Trend Intensity**: Staple fiber: 1; Bottle chip: 1 [82] Offset Printing Paper - **Market Status**: It is recommended to wait and see for offset printing paper. The spot price was stable, and the cost - profit situation was basically unchanged. The market trading was light [84][85][87]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [84] Pure Benzene - **Market Status**: Pure benzene is in a strong - oscillating market. The futures price changed, and the port inventory decreased slightly. Geopolitical factors continued to affect the market, and the Shandong market had large - volume transactions [89][90][91]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [92]

Group 1 - BASF announced a price increase of up to 20% for its global plastic application antioxidants, processing aids, and light stabilizers due to significant rises in key raw material costs, inflationary pressures on fixed costs, and increased shipping costs [1] - Dongfang Securities highlighted three investment opportunities: 1) Chemical products with strategic resource attributes, such as phosphate chemicals, may benefit from value reassessment due to resource security and supply constraints; 2) Alternatives in petrochemical chemicals, where rising oil prices may highlight cost advantages in coal chemicals and ethane cracking; 3) Chemical products with excellent industry structure, which have a competitive edge amid cost fluctuations, such as leading MDI products [1] - As of March 5, 2026, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 1.18%, with constituent stocks like Shengquan Group up 2.92%, Hongda Co. up 2.86%, and Salt Lake Co. up 2.26% [1] Group 2 - As of February 27, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, Tianci Materials, Hualu Hengsheng, Yuntianhua, Juhua Co., Hengli Petrochemical, Baofeng Energy, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 45.18% of the index [2] - The Chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sub-industries [1][2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant economic contribution of the global mobile technology and services industry, projected to reach $11.3 trillion by 2030, accounting for approximately 8.4% of global GDP [5] - The report discusses various industry dynamics, including price adjustments in specific sectors and the growth of active users in mobile applications, indicating potential investment opportunities [7] Industry Updates - Mitsubishi Gas Chemical has raised prices for CCL products, which may enhance the valuation of related stocks such as Shengyi Technology (600183) and Huazheng New Materials (603186) [7] - The Qianwen App has surpassed 200 million monthly active users, suggesting investment interest in related companies like Runjian Co., Ltd. (002929) and Jialitu (603912) [7] - Six government departments are promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic components, indicating a vast industry potential with related stocks including GreenMei (002340) and Dongjiang Environmental Protection (002672) [7] Company Focus - Lens Technology (300433) announced the mass shipment of SSDs assembled for enterprise-level NVMe SSD manufacturer DERA at its Xiangtan facility [9] - Sunlord Electronics (002138) stated during an earnings briefing that it provides a one-stop component solution for various AI server clients [9] - Pioneer Technology (688605) plans to issue convertible bonds to raise no more than 750 million yuan for expanding its semiconductor advanced process core metal device project [9] - Jiantou Co., Ltd. (002440) reported a recent increase of approximately 9,000 yuan per ton in the price of its disperse dye black [9] Market Review and Outlook - On March 4, the total trading volume in the two markets was 23.658 billion yuan, with 1,627 stocks rising and 3,464 falling, indicating a net outflow of 88.075 billion yuan [11] - The report notes that the market is experiencing a narrowing divergence, suggesting a potential exhaustion point for bearish trends as trading volume decreases [12] - Key sectors such as electric grid equipment and ultra-high voltage saw significant capital inflows, while oil and gas, as well as precious metals, faced declines [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical conflicts, particularly involving Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have led to significant price increases in the energy and chemical sectors, presenting various investment opportunities and risks [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Oil and Gas Sector - The geopolitical tensions have caused a surge in oil prices, with Brent crude currently priced at $80 per barrel, reflecting expectations of supply losses from the Middle East [1]. - Iran's oil production is projected to be 3.37 million barrels per day by 2025, accounting for 4.3% of global production, with current production levels remaining stable despite the conflict [1]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 26.6% of global seaborne oil trade, could lead to severe supply delays and increased transportation costs, further driving up global energy prices [1]. Group 2: Natural Gas Sector - Qatar Energy has announced a halt in LNG production due to military attacks, which could lead to substantial supply losses in the LNG market, where Qatar holds a 20% global market share [2]. - The combination of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked and major producers halting operations is expected to create a significant supply shortage in the LNG market, with prices likely to remain strong in the short term [2]. Group 3: Chemical Sector - The geopolitical situation is expected to impact methanol imports, with Iran accounting for 59.9% of the Middle East's methanol production capacity, leading to potential price increases due to supply disruptions [3]. - Iran's urea production capacity is approximately 9 million tons per year, and any disruptions could lead to increased prices in the international market, especially given the uncertainty surrounding its production and export [4][5]. - European chemical production, particularly for methionine and vitamins, faces significant uncertainty due to reliance on natural gas, which constitutes about 30% of direct raw materials [6]. Group 4: Bromine Market - The geopolitical tensions may lead to supply shortages in bromine, with Israel and Jordan being major producers, and increased shipping costs could further elevate bromine prices [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of benchmark crude oils Brent and SC have been strengthening recently. The main contract of SC has risen to around 650 yuan per barrel, and Brent reached around $83 per barrel on Wednesday. The strength of refined oil has exceeded market expectations, with significant increases in the crack spreads of diesel and aviation kerosene. The natural gas price in Europe has continued to be strong due to the shutdown of Qatari gas fields and liquefaction plants [2]. - More refineries announced force majeure or production cuts on Wednesday, which will affect the pattern of the entire chemical and oil product markets in the next few months. Refined oil and chemicals are about to enter the peak spring maintenance period from March to May. Even though the 2026 maintenance is expected to be relatively light, the crack spreads of middle distillates have increased significantly due to factors such as reduced Russian exports. Currently, a forced heavy - maintenance is being implemented in global refineries, leading to a greater reduction in inventories of refined oil and chemicals. Even after the geopolitical conflict ends, the profit levels of refined oil and chemicals will be lifted [2]. - Crude oil leads the chemical industry to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Variety 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Market News**: The US President Trump said on March 3 that the US Navy would escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, and the US International Development Finance Corporation would provide political risk insurance and guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf region. On March 4, the supply of oil through the "Friendship" oil pipeline to Slovakia remained suspended. The EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels in the week ending February 27, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.704 million barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 0.429 million barrels, with a refinery utilization rate of 89.2% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The upward trend of oil prices has slowed down, and the spreads of both domestic and foreign markets have continued to rise. The US crude oil has continued its seasonal inventory build - up, but the build - up rate has slowed down compared to last week. After the refinery utilization rate dropped from its high level, the inventory pressure of refined oil has decreased. If the low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz continues, it may lead to shipping difficulties and increased production suspension pressure for Middle - Eastern countries, posing an upward risk to oil prices. However, if there are signs of geopolitical easing or expectations of increased traffic volume, oil prices will still be under pressure. Currently, it is still a high - volatility period dominated by geopolitics, and price risks are high. Attention should be paid to the impact of high - volatility freight rates on the price difference between domestic and foreign markets [6]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. Geopolitical tensions have led to a reduction in crude oil supply. After the fermentation of geopolitical premiums, there is significant uncertainty in the later situation, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the main asphalt futures closed at 3,660 yuan per ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3,430 yuan per ton, 3,760 yuan per ton, and 3,530 yuan per ton respectively [8]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and asphalt futures prices have followed suit. The by - product nature of asphalt has caused the asphalt crack spread to decline during the sharp rise of crude oil. The market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. As the asphalt - fuel oil spread has dropped sharply, the profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly. Statistics show that the asphalt production in Hainan has increased significantly. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory has started to accumulate in 2026, with the year - on - year growth rate changing from negative in 2025 to positive. Currently, the refinery inventory is low while the social inventory is high, and the refinery operation rate is low while the inventory continues to accumulate, reflecting the reality of tight raw material supply and poor demand. After the increase in the spot price in South China, the export window is expected to close, and the weakening of exports will intensify the domestic oversupply pressure. Against the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the pressure of asphalt inventory build - up is still high. After the sharp rise of fuel oil, the current asphalt futures price is undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar. The asphalt - fuel oil spread compresses when the geopolitical situation heats up and rebounds when the situation eases [8]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. The absolute price of asphalt is in an overvalued range, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3,888 yuan per ton [9]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in fuel oil prices due to its high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes. The tense situation in Iran not only affects the export expectations of Iranian fuel oil and Middle - Eastern fuel oil but also the supply expectations of Middle - Eastern natural gas. The energy crisis effect has driven the sharp rise of fuel oil prices, and the sharp rise in freight rates has also contributed to the rebound of fuel oil. Currently, attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran situation. As long as the geopolitical disturbance continues, fuel oil prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Once the US and Iran reach an agreement, it may have a significant negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand for Middle - Eastern fuel oil for power generation is gradually being replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics, which constitutes a medium - to - long - term negative factor for high - sulfur fuel oil. After the replacement of fuel oil for power generation in Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia is expected to increase fuel oil exports. The continuous decline of the asphalt - fuel oil spread shows that the geopolitical escalation has a significant impact on fuel oil prices [9]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. The long - term growth expectation of Venezuelan oil production exerts pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 4,376 yuan per ton [10]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in natural gas and crude oil prices, and low - sulfur fuel oil has followed the upward trend of crude oil. The market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a strong main - product attribute. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, replacement by green energy, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current valuation is low, and its main - product attribute causes the crack spread to strengthen during the rise of crude oil prices. In terms of fundamentals, the export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage over refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. Considering that the valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is lower than that of refined oil, its valuation is expected to be difficult to further compress [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by the replacement of green fuels and the limited space for high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low, and it fluctuates with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **Market News**: On March 4, according to the CCF, the spot price of PX in April was negotiated at 1,024 - 1,038 US dollars per ton, and in May at 1,024 - 1,045 US dollars per ton. A spot deal in April was made at 1,030.5 US dollars per ton. The main PX contract closed at 8,088 (+104) yuan per ton, with a basis of 94 (-26) yuan per ton. The MOPJ closed at 721 (+18) US dollars per ton, and the PXN was 282 (-2) US dollars per ton. The PTA2605 closed at 5,694 (+86) yuan per ton, with a processing margin of 499 (+61) yuan per ton. A 770,000 - ton PX plant in South Korea started its scheduled maintenance on March 4 and is expected to restart in late April [11]. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation has brought significant fluctuations to the price of raw material PX. The cost and sentiment have resonated. Some domestic PX plants have reduced production preventively, and the supply - demand expectation of PX is improving, gradually falling from a high - operation state. The implementation of the maintenance of individual plants in South Korea has been confirmed. The restart of multiple PTA plants in the downstream will provide short - term support for PX demand. With the decrease in supply and increase in demand, the short - term fundamentals of PX are slightly strong [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PX price will fluctuate strongly under the resonance of cost support and market sentiment. The logic of going long on dips in the medium - term remains. The 05 - 09 spread of PX is expected to be in a positive spread position on dips, and the PXN is expected to be maintained in the range of [270, 330] US dollars per ton [11]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Market News**: On March 4, according to the CCF, the spot price of PTA was 5,605 (+80) yuan per ton, the spot processing margin was 245.6 (+35.5) yuan per ton, and the spot basis was - 46 (+7) yuan per ton. The main PTA contract closed at 5,694 (+86) yuan per ton, and the processing margin on the main contract was 396.4 (+17.9) yuan per ton. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased overall, with an average sales rate of about 40% by 4 pm. The sales rates of several polyester factories were 60%, 100%, 0%, 25%, 75%, 40%, 40%, 0%, 10%, 100%, 0%, 40%, 30%, 30%, 60%, 80%, 50%, 80% respectively. The sales rate of domestic polyester chip sample enterprises was 16.06%, a decrease of 55.24% compared with the previous period [12]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation is still the short - term focus of the market. The shipping in the Strait is blocked, forcing crude oil production cuts in the Middle East. International oil prices have driven the general rise of downstream chemical products. Under cost support, the center of PTA has moved up, but the overall increase is less than that of PX, resulting in a slight pressure on its processing margin. Overall, PTA will still fluctuate strongly following the upstream cost in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the situation of upstream refineries and its own plant changes [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that PTA will maintain a strong - fluctuating trend in the short - term. The 05 - 09 spread of TA is expected to maintain the positive spread logic in the short - term. The support at the lower price of TA has increased, and short - selling is not recommended in the short - term [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Market News**: On March 4, the closing price of the pure benzene 2604 contract was 6,761 yuan per ton, a change of +3.21%. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,640 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 280 yuan per ton; the FOB price of pure benzene in South Korea was 878 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 45 US dollars per ton; the FOB price of pure benzene in the US was 969.73 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 26.94 US dollars per ton. The price of Japanese CFR naphtha was 636.63 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.13 US dollars per ton; the spread between Chinese pure benzene and naphtha was 134 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 11 US dollars per ton. The non - integrated profit of downstream styrene was 349 (+77) yuan per ton, the profit of caprolactam containing ammonium sulfate was 749.78 (+29.56) yuan per ton, the profit of phenol was - 50 (+327) yuan per ton, the profit of aniline was 1,687 (-87) yuan per ton, and the profit of adipic acid was - 153 (-76) yuan per ton [13][14]. - **Main Logic**: In the energy sector, the recent geopolitical situation has dominated the price trend of crude oil, and the escalation of the geopolitical conflict has led to the rise of crude oil and then pure benzene. In terms of supply and demand, the supply side is affected by oil price fluctuations, and refineries may have the expectation of defensive production cuts. On the demand side, on the one hand, the news of styrene maintenance and restart is intertwined, and the expectation of the main demand for pure benzene has changed. At present, the maintenance volume in March is greater than the restart volume. On the other hand, among the non - styrene downstream, except for caprolactam, which is still reducing production and has a low load, the other downstream products such as adipic acid, phenol, and aniline have performed well recently, with the operation rate and profit recovering simultaneously, which may reflect the recovery of terminal demand [14]. - **Outlook**: Volatility with an upward bias. The crude oil price fluctuates with an upward bias. Although the inventory pressure is still high, the fundamentals in Q1 have improved compared with Q4 [14]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Market News**: On March 4, according to Longzhong data, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8,210 (+30) yuan per ton, and the basis of the main contract was 128 (0) yuan per ton. The price of pure benzene in East China was 6,730 (+90) yuan per ton, the price of Sinopec ethylene was 6,500 (+400) yuan per ton, the non - integrated cash - flow production cost of styrene was 7,987 (+165) yuan per ton, and the cash - flow profit was 113 (-165) yuan per ton. The price of PS in East China was 8,400 (+100) yuan per ton, the cash - flow profit of PS was - 200 (+100) yuan per ton; the price of EPS was 9,150 (+100) yuan per ton, the cash - flow profit of EPS was 400 (400) yuan per ton; the price of ABS was 10,150 (+200) yuan per ton, the cash - flow profit of ABS was 291.88 (+117.41) yuan per ton. The main contract EB2604 opened at 8,190 yuan, reached a high of 8,358 yuan, a low of 7,972 yuan, and closed at 8,213 yuan, an increase of 132 yuan compared with the previous trading day [15]. - **Main Logic**: In the energy sector, the escalation of the geopolitical conflict has led to the rise of crude oil and then styrene. In terms of cost, the supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is stable, and it is difficult to reduce inventory, so it has no effective driving force for styrene. On the supply side, according to Zhuochuang, the Carville plant in the US has stopped for maintenance, and in March in China, several plants such as Gulei, Hengli, Yanchang Refining and Chemical, and Zibo Junchen have new maintenance plans, and Xuyang plans to restart in late March, so the supply of styrene is expected to decrease. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival holiday ends, the operation rate of downstream industries has gradually recovered, and the overall demand is expected to improve. Recently, the profits of 3S have been repaired, and the downstream transactions have maintained a good rhythm. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of EPS load increase and the resumption of work and production of terminals. Overall, styrene will return to inventory reduction in March, and the near - term fundamentals are acceptable. Attention should be paid to crude oil, plant maintenance and restart progress, and the demand after the festival [15]. - **Outlook**: Volatility with an upward bias. The crude oil price fluctuates with an upward bias. Driven by exports and with many plant maintenance plans, styrene may return to inventory reduction in March [15]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On March 4, according to the CCF, ethylene glycol

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 5 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 纯碱当日行情： 从供需基本面来看，当前纯碱市场延续承压态势。供应端，纯碱供给持续增加， 库存累积趋势未改。轻重碱产量比例自 2024 年 9 月中旬起呈现持续上行趋势。需 求端，重碱需求表现偏弱，受到浮法玻 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2604 价格上涨 62 元至 6889 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 6735 元/吨（环比+60），山东地区现货价格 6676 元/吨（环比+51）。持仓方面， 多头减少 672 手至 2.11 万手，空头减少 669 手至 2.46 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，2 月国内纯苯产量 185.91 万吨，较上月下降 8.73 万吨，较去年同月 上升 13.85 万吨。 2、库存方面，2026 年 3 月 2 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：30.3 万吨，较 上期库存 30.4 万吨去库 0.1 万吨，环比下降 0.33%；较去年同期库存 14.5 万吨累 库 15.8 万吨，同比上升 108.97%。22 月 23 日-3 月 1 日 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-03-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 缺乏基本面支撑，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着美以向伊朗发动军事袭击，中东地缘风险快速升温，伊朗宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡， 原油和甲醇等能源物资无法从中东向外运输，甲醇溢价或将大幅升温。由于伊朗甲醇产能高达 1500-1600 万吨/年，一旦航道被关闭或者甲醇装置遭到损坏，则海外甲醇供应面临短缺风险。不过 目前国内甲醇产能居高不下， ...