光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 昨日，市场全天高开低走，创业板指尾盘跌超 1%。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | | 震荡 | | | 市下跌个股近 3800 只，今日成交 1.72 万亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.4%，深成指 | | | | 跌 0.76%，创业板指跌 1.12%。随着 6 月以来的流动性行情告一段落，市场 | | | | 重新聚焦基本面逻辑，目前以 AI 为首的新质生产力题材普遍对未来三年的 | | | | 增长水平存在乐观预期，尤其是科技领域的上游硬件制造环节，供需错配下 | | | | 涨价预期明显，中期盈利能力可观。但是，对应题材自 6 月以来涨幅均较大， | | | | 临近年底缺乏进一步事件性催化，自 11 月逐渐进入震荡行情。另一方面， | | | | 以消费和周期题材为首的传统经济领域仍然处在震荡复苏的过程中，尽管存 | | | | 在一些补涨的逻辑，但短期很难进入基本面牛市。在此背景下，市场成交量 | | | | 和波动率逐渐降低，风险偏好 ...

中证 1000 较前收盘价上涨-46.8 点，计算机,家用电器,电力设备等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 中证 500 较前收盘价上涨-60.8 点，基础化工,电力设备,电子等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-11-21 一、指数走势 11 月 20 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.4%，收于 3931.05 点，成交额 7113.41 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.76%，收于 12980.82 点，成交额 9968.47 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-0.63%，成交额 3567.12 亿元，其中开盘价 7429.7，收盘价 7340.41，当日最高价 7439.04，最低价 7332.32； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.85%，成交额 2541.58 亿元，其中开盘价 7174.1，收盘价 7061.95，当日最高价 7180.73，最低价 7056.9； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-0.51%，成交额 4150.65 亿元，其中开盘价 4619.54，收盘价 4564.95，当日最高价 4620.65，最低价 4560.18； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-0.4%，成交额 1009.82 亿元 ...

Market Performance - On November 21, A-shares experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.48% [1] - The CSI 1000 ETF (159845) fell by 2.54%, while other major indices such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300 also saw declines of 0.97% and 1.47% respectively [1] - Among the top 50 weighted stocks in the CSI 1000 ETF, Zhejiang Rongtai and Yingliu Co. showed gains of 3.20% and 2.87%, while Xiangnong Chip and Jiangte Motor faced significant losses of -12.07% and -10.03% [1] Industry Performance - Key sectors within the CSI 1000 ETF saw declines, with Electronics down by 2.82%, Power Equipment down by 3.30%, Pharmaceuticals down by 1.66%, Computers down by 2.02%, and Machinery down by 2.09% [1] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - The CSI 1000 ETF recorded a net inflow of 891 million yuan over the past five trading days and 978 million yuan over the last ten days, bringing its total size to 44.588 billion yuan, with a recent growth of 1.651 billion yuan in the past month [1] - Trading activity was notable, with a transaction volume reaching 880 million yuan during the day and an average daily transaction of 419 million yuan over the past week [1] Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the importance of promoting high-quality development and enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems [2] - The CSRC plans to strengthen risk prevention and investor protection, aiming to boost investor confidence [2] Market Outlook - Huaxin Securities indicated that while short-term signals suggest a market correction, there are no clear signs of a market peak, suggesting that the A-share bull market is still in its mid-stage [2] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in November, with a focus on low-position rebounds, profit recovery, and technology themes [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bull market continues, but it is still a structural one. Investing in stock index futures may be more advantageous than stocks. There are also opportunities in the commodity futures market due to the re - evaluation of physical resource values [50] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Index Review - **Driving Sectors of the Bull Market**: New energy, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and communication are the main drivers of the current bull market. Industries such as electronics, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals have made significant contributions to the index increase from April 10, 2025, to November 14, 2025 [6] - **Industry Performance Details**: Different industries show various performance indicators in terms of weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi - annual, and annual returns, as well as maximum drawdown, Sharpe ratio, and other metrics. For example, the comprehensive industry has high returns in multiple time - frames, while the beauty care industry has negative returns in the short - term [7] - **Index Valuation - Risk Premium Rate**: As of the latest trading day, the risk premium rates of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 6.5%, 5.2%, 1.2%, and 0.3% respectively. From a configuration perspective, large - cap indexes are more cost - effective than small - and medium - cap indexes [10] - **Index Valuation - 2026 Estimation**: Analysts' 2026 EPS estimates for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 10.6, 6.8, 1.8, and 1.1 respectively. For the ChiNext and STAR 50, the estimates are 7.6 and 4.7. The estimates show that analysts are pessimistic about the profit improvement of large - cap indexes, optimistic about CSI 500 and ChiNext (with a weakening trend recently), and neutral about CSI 1000 and STAR 50 [18] - **Fund Inflow**: Margin trading funds continue to flow into broad - based indexes, with different trends for different indexes. From the perspective of theme ETFs, large - cap, small - cap, and micro - cap indexes have continuous inflows, while medium - cap indexes have a slowdown in inflow [20] - **Industry Fund Inflow**: In terms of margin trading funds, the power equipment industry has continuous inflows, while the computer, non - bank finance, and automobile industries have short - term outflows. Most industries in theme ETFs maintain a net inflow trend, except for the military and food and beverage industries [24] - **Private Fund Filing**: The filing speed of private funds is still slow. In November, 112 private funds were liquidated and 54 were newly issued; in October, 292 were liquidated and 608 were newly issued [25] 3.2 Stock - Futures Linkage - **Understanding Stock - Futures Linkage**: Stock - futures linkage is affected by factors such as demand, supply, price, cost, profit, valuation, and macro - factors. There is a relationship between commodity futures and resource stocks [29] - **Linkage in Different Sectors**: - **Precious Metals**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, gold futures rose 93% and gold stocks rose 117%; silver futures rose 99% and silver stocks rose 118%. The pricing is related to the overflow of macro - liquidity [35] - **Copper and Aluminum**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, copper futures rose 25% and copper stocks rose 69%; aluminum futures rose 9% and aluminum stocks rose 83%. The pricing is related to AI - related power demand and power supply for electrolytic aluminum [38] - **New Energy**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, lithium carbonate futures fell 7% and lithium mining stocks rose 59%. From December 26, 2024, to November 20, 2025, polysilicon futures rose 25% and polysilicon stocks rose 33%. The pricing is related to anti - involution policies and the bottom - up reversal of lithium carbonate [42] - **Coal and Real Estate**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, coking coal futures fell 41% and coal stocks rose 10%; glass futures rose 45% and real estate stocks rose 12%. The pricing of coking coal is related to short - term supply surplus, while coal has stable dividends. Glass also has supply surplus, but real estate may have a reversal [46] - **Advanced Usage of Stock - Futures Linkage**: In fully cleared industries, the cost - to - price ratio can be estimated through the linkage between stock prices and futures prices, and then the elasticity between futures and stocks can be calculated. By comparing the estimated cost - to - price ratio with industrial reality, it can be determined which is more overvalued or undervalued between commodities and stocks [47] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - The bull market continues, but it is a structural one. It is recommended to consider stock index futures. There are also opportunities in the commodity futures market [50]

Domestic Financial Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down by 0.40% [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down by 0.76% [3] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3042.34, down by 1.12% [3] - The Hang Seng Futures Index closed at 33367.24, up by 0.10% [3] Macro News Summary - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are drafting the "Government Procurement Demand Standards for New Energy Vehicles (Draft for Comments)" [5] - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting the innovation and upgrading of a batch of time-honored brands [5] - The November Loan Market Quote Rate (LPR) was released: the 5-year LPR remains at 3.5%, and the 1-year LPR remains at 3% [5] Industry Latest Dynamics - Core products of organic silicon have increased in price by 20%, leading to institutional buying of related stocks such as TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089) and Hoshine Silicon Industry (603260) [6] - IDC predicts that the Chinese smart glasses market will reach a scale inflection point by 2026, with related stocks including Goertek Inc. (002241) and iFlytek Co., Ltd. (002230) [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a document to improve the efficiency of computing resource utilization, with related stocks including Chuling Information (300250) and Cambridge Technology (603083) [6] Listed Company Focus - Xue Ren Group (002639) is involved in a major national scientific research project utilizing its "megawatt" large helium compressor equipment [7] - Amway Co., Ltd. (300218) is collaborating with Google on the application of polyurethane composite materials in electronic products, which currently represents a small portion of overall revenue [7] - Xingfa Group (600141) has completed the installation and debugging of its 20,000 tons/year sodium hypophosphite expansion project, which is now ready for trial production [7] - Bowei Alloy (601137) is focusing on 6G communication materials as one of its key R&D projects, which has already been applied in testing prototypes [7] Market Review and Outlook - On November 20, the market opened slightly higher but maintained a volatile pattern, with all three major indices closing lower [8] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4% to close at 3931 points, while the ChiNext Index dropped over 1% [8] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.71 trillion, a decrease of 177 billion from the previous trading day [8] - Sectors such as construction materials, banking, public utilities, and telecommunications saw gains, while hotel and restaurant, daily chemicals, coal, and electrical equipment sectors experienced declines of over 2% [8] - The market is currently in a performance vacuum, with value styles outperforming growth styles due to a lack of earnings realization and policy support [9] - Short-term strategies suggest maintaining a wait-and-see approach until a stop-loss signal appears, followed by potential reallocation based on new market leaders [9]

15只今年新发科创债ETF规模均超百亿元 今年以来，债券ETF规模节节攀升。数据显示，截至11月19日，债券ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）规 模已达到7148.17亿元，创下历史新高。 在业内人士看来，债券ETF的持续扩容，不仅为投资者提供了 更丰富的多元化配置选择，拓宽了大类资产配置的路径，也将显著提升债券市场流动性，进一步推动 ETF向高质量、多层次方向发展。随着其在资产配置中的地位稳步提升，债券ETF的战略价值正愈发凸 显。(证券日报) 短融ETF规模突破700亿元 今年以来债券ETF凭借流动性强、费率低、交易高效、结构透明等优势，规模不断创新高，成为资产配 置中的重要工具。数据显示，截至2025年11月20日，债券ETF中规模最大的一只——短融ETF规模已突 破700亿大关，达700.01亿元，该产品基金管理人为海富通基金。截至最新，全部债券ETF规模达7150.6 亿元。（人民财讯） 不良个贷转让加速 11月以来挂牌超260亿元 近日，国家金融监督管理总局披露的数据显示，商业银行不良贷款余额、不良贷款率环比小幅"双升"。 与此同时，年内不良个贷转让加速，今年11月以来，挂牌相关资产包合计超过260亿 ...

21日，全球市场避险情绪持续发酵，美股昨夜上演过山车行情，无独有偶，日韩股市开盘大跳水。 截至北京时间8：40左右，日经225指数跌超2%，软银集团股价下跌11%，创下自11月5日以来最大单日跌幅。 | < W | | 日经225(N225) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 11-21 09:20:46 | | | | 48699.16 | | 昨收 | | 0 | | -1124.78 -2.26% | | 今开 49251.26 成交量 | | 0 | | 上 涨 | 120 | 中国 叶 3 | 下 跌 | 102 | | 最高价 | 49459.59 市盈率 | 19.9 近20日 | | 0.12% | | 最低价 | 48559.68 市净率 | 2.27 | 今年来 | 22.07% | | 分时 | 五日 | | 周K 月K 更多 © | | | 暨加 | | | | | | 51088.21 | | | | 2.54% | | 49823.94 | | | | 0.00% | | 48559.68 | | | | -2.54% | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 70.75 CNY [1][6] Core Views - The company has shown a high growth rate in revenue, with a focus on platform-based strategies to enhance its product matrix and customer service capabilities [5][10] - The company is expected to achieve significant net profit growth in the coming years, with forecasts of 1.03 billion, 3.04 billion, and 5.39 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,066 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 33.8%. This is expected to rise to 3,988 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 31.2% [8][14] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 169 million CNY in 2023, with a significant decline of 31.3% year-on-year, but is expected to recover to 539 million CNY by 2027 [8][14] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 25.2% in 2023 to 28.0% in 2027, indicating better cost management and pricing strategies [8][14] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing a platform-based strategy, combining internal growth with external acquisitions to strengthen its market position [10] - It has successfully launched several products in the gas distribution system and heating plate sectors, enhancing its competitive edge in the semiconductor equipment market [10] - The establishment of localized factories in key regions, including Beijing and Singapore, aims to improve service efficiency and meet customer demands for confidentiality and IP security [10]

沪指今日收盘下跌0.40%。资金面上看，沪深两市全天特大单净流出243.43亿元，共计1524股特大单净 流入，3171股特大单净流出。 从申万一级行业来看，今日有8个行业特大单资金净流入，银行特大单净流入规模居首，净流入资金 19.59亿元，该行业指数今日上涨0.86%，其次是通信，今日上涨0.51%，净流入资金为13.45亿元，净流 入资金居前的还有房地产、公用事业等行业。 特大单资金净流出的行业共有23个，净流出资金最多的是电力设备，特大单净流出资金58.89亿元，其 次是电子，特大单净流出资金31.53亿元，净流出资金居前的还有国防军工、计算机等行业。 具体到个股来看，29股特大单净流入超2亿元，方正科技特大单净流入9.59亿元，净流入资金规模居 首；新易盛特大单净流入资金8.34亿元，位列第二；净流入资金居前的还有大众公用、天孚通信、东材 科技等。特大单净流出股中，香农芯创特大单净流出资金11.23亿元，净流出资金最多；多氟多、航天 发展特大单净流出资金分别为7.76亿元、7.72亿元，净流出资金规模位列第二、第三。 股价表现方面，特大单资金净流入超2亿元个股今日平均上涨5.58%，表现强于沪指。具 ...

消息面上，昨夜迟来的美国9月就业报告显示，美国经济增加11.9万个就业岗位，超过经济学家的预 期。投资者对美联储12月降息的希望减弱。（详情→） 另据新华社报道，本周以来，由于投资者担心中日关系持续恶化，日本股市入境游相关股票全面下跌， 旅游从业人士纷纷表示，大量订单被取消，"日子很难过"。东日本国际旅行社相关负责人透露，受当前 局势影响，中国赴日旅游团出现"退单潮"。日本野村综合研究所研究员木内登英预测，中国政府的旅游 提醒可能令日本今后一年旅游消费收入减少约1.79万亿日元（约合115亿美元），使日本实际国内生产 总值减少0.29%。 21日，全球市场避险情绪持续发酵，美股昨夜上演过山车行情，无独有偶，日韩股市开盘大跳水。 截至北京时间8：40左右，日经225指数跌超2%，软银集团股价下跌11%，创下自11月5日以来最大单日 跌幅。 韩国综合指数跌超3%，三星电子跌超4%，SK海力士跌超7%。 ...