格隆汇8月5日丨沙特阿美：第二季度营收3788.3亿里亚尔；营业利润1670.9亿里亚尔，低于预估的1804 亿里亚尔；净利润856.3亿里亚尔，低于预估的893.4亿里亚尔；第二季度自由现金流152.3亿美元，同比 下降20%。 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心下移，其中 WTI 9月合约收盘下跌 1.04 美元至 66.29 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.54%。布伦特 10 月合约收盘下跌 0.91 美元至 68.76 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.31%。SC2509 以 510.2 元/桶收盘，下跌 6.6 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅 1.28%。OPEC+周日同意将 9 月的石油产量提高 54.7 万 | | | | 桶/日，这是 OPEC+为夺回市场份额而实施的一系列加速增产行 | | | | 动中的最新举措，其理由是经济健康和库存低。此举符合市场预 | | | | 期，并标志着 OPEC+全面提前解除了其最大规模的减产协议，加 | | | | 250 万桶/日，约占全球需求量的 2.4%。 上阿联酋单独增产，合计约 | | | 原油 | 美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文表示，印度不仅 | 震荡 | | | 大量购买俄罗斯石油，还将其中大部分石油在 ...

"新能源业务已经由对外开拓闯市场阶段，正式进入项目建设保落地阶段。"辽河油田新能源事业部经理 刘军表示，辽河油田新发绿电项目包括光伏发电和风力发电两类，是油田公司构建"油气+新能源"双轮 驱动格局的重要组成部分。 截至目前，油区首个风力发电项目——沈阳采油厂前进静安堡风力发电工程已经完成施工前期专项评价 和施工图审查，获取国网公司接网批复和中国石油油气和新能源公司设计批复，装机规模达31.25兆 瓦，正在进行施工图升版工作，预计今年8月底正式开工。此外，科尔沁光伏工程主体工程建完；油气 化工厂光伏发电工程完成油田公司初步设计审查；沈阳采油厂、欢喜岭采油厂以及曙光采油厂光伏（一 期）3项工程已全部并网发电，装机容量达到12.8兆瓦，6个项目大幅提升油田公司年发绿电能力。 此外，油区持续加大"走出去"力度，实现"零的突破"。辽河油田建立起"立足辽河、辐射辽宁、延伸京 津冀鲁豫晋等其他区域"的市场布局，紧随国家和辽宁省发改委相关政策导向，加强与属地政府部门联 系，加速推进项目资源普查和手续办理。截至目前，该油田完成盘锦市风力发电、大连市光伏发电以及 抚顺市风力发电3个并网指标竞争性配置工作。 中化新网讯 近日，从中 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil prices fell to $65.76 and Brent to $68.28, both down over 2% due to OPEC+ increasing production by 550,000 barrels per day, completing its reduction exit plan a year early, leading to a historical oversupply of 800,000 barrels per day [3] - Geopolitical tensions, such as potential U.S. tariffs on Russian oil purchased by India, are seen as ineffective in significantly impacting oil supply, with analysts skeptical about the actual enforcement of sanctions [3] - The oil price is expected to stabilize between $65-$70 in Q3, with a potential drop to $55 in Q4 due to cumulative effects of OPEC production increases and seasonal demand decline [3] Group 2: Copper Market Surge - LME copper prices increased by 0.6% following a tariff exemption from Trump, leading to a surge in inventory in New York by 400,000 tons, while Asian stocks dwindled to a 10-day warning level [4] - A mining accident in Chile has eliminated 25% of a major company's production capacity, contributing to a global copper inventory drop to 350,000 tons, creating a potential short squeeze in the market [4] - Long-term demand for copper is expected to rise significantly due to electric vehicles and renewable energy, with Goldman Sachs predicting copper prices to exceed $10,050 per ton by August and a supply gap of 3 million tons by 2030 [4] Group 3: Gold Price Stability - Spot gold prices rose by 0.4%, with futures reaching $3,426, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve due to disappointing U.S. employment data [5] - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged to 94%, which typically drives investment towards safe-haven assets like gold [5] - The Federal Reserve's internal changes and signals of accelerated rate cuts have reinforced bullish sentiment for gold, with technical support seen at $3,400-$3,450 [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For oil, a strategy is to target upstream oil service companies and refining leaders if prices hit $55 in Q4, capitalizing on equipment upgrades and margin expansion [6] - In copper, focus on resource companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, which are less volatile than pure futures trading [7] - For gold, a dollar-cost averaging strategy into gold ETFs and mining stocks is recommended, increasing positions by 3% on price dips before the Fed's rate cut [8]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The fraud incident of US non - farm payroll data from May to June in 2025 has multi - dimensional and differentiated impacts on the global commodity market, reshaping the pricing logic of new energy metals, iron ore, and oilseed agricultural products through the transmission chain of "economic expectation revision - monetary policy shift - industrial policy game." Different varieties show differentiation due to policy sensitivity differences. Investors need to pay close attention to the September Fed interest - rate meeting and China's "dual - carbon" policy details, which may be the key nodes for secondary pricing of the market [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Futures: The Tug - of - War between Demand Expectation Collapse and Geopolitical Conflicts - The fraud of US non - farm data from May to June exposed the real weakness of the US job market, causing the market's expectation of crude oil demand to cool rapidly. The revised non - farm data showed that the new employment in May and June was only 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, far lower than the previously announced 144,000 and 147,000. Brent crude oil futures price once fell below $70/barrel after the incident was exposed, a decline of about 15% from the May high. The long - term demand - side impact depends on the pace of the US economic soft landing and the actual demand recovery in China. If the Fed cuts interest rates as expected in the fourth quarter, it may help improve the macro - expectation and support the oil price center [6]. - Geopolitical factors partially offset the demand concerns. OPEC + members have agreed in principle to significantly increase crude oil production again in September, planning to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day. Coupled with the rising expectation of the US imposing a 10% tariff on imported crude oil, international oil prices rebounded to around $75 in July. The crude oil market is in a volatile pattern of "weak reality" and "strong expectation" [6]. - In August, the supply side may increase to a certain extent, but the increase may be limited. The demand side is supported by the traditional peak season in the US, and the inventory - reduction trend is expected to continue, providing bottom support for oil prices. However, the pressure of OPEC + production increase still exists, and long - term crude oil prices face upward pressure. Domestic chemical futures are expected to be differentiated due to raw material costs and supply - demand factors [7][8]. 2. Gold Futures Regain Momentum: Driven by Both Safe - Haven Premium and Monetary Policy Shift - The market trust crisis triggered by the fraud of US non - farm data from May to June and the expectation of Fed policy shift jointly pushed the gold price to break through the historical high. After the release of weak non - farm data, the dollar index tumbled, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September soared from 46% to 73% [10]. - Spot gold soared after the non - farm data was announced, rising more than $70 and closing up 2.21% at $3362.88/ounce. COMEX gold futures broke through $2600/ounce. Central bank gold - buying behavior further strengthened the safe - haven attribute of gold. Goldman Sachs predicted that if the concerns about US fiscal sustainability intensify, the gold price may break through $3150/ounce by the end of 2025 [10][11]. 3. Copper Futures: The Intensified Game between Industrial Attributes and Policy Disturbances - The Trump administration's decision to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper pushed up the LME copper price, while the fraud of US non - farm data weakened the global industrial demand logic for copper. In June 2025, the global refined copper inventory increased by 12% compared with May, but the copper price premium in the US Midwest remained at a high level of $450/ton. The COMEX copper price closed at $9200/ton in July, down 7% from the May high but still higher than the beginning - of - year level [13]. 4. Aluminum Futures: The Balance between Cost Support and Demand Contraction - The fraud of US non - farm data from May to June led to concerns about global and US economic recession, causing the LME aluminum price to fall by 4% in June. However, the 30% increase in European natural gas prices pushed up the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, supporting the price to stabilize above $2000/ton. The adjustment of China's export structure was a key variable. The 22% increase in aluminum product exports to ASEAN in the first half of the year partially offset the impact of US tariffs. The supply - demand re - balance reduced the aluminum price volatility from 18% in May to 12% in June [14]. 5. New Energy Metal Futures: The Game between Cost Support and Capacity Clearance 5.1 Lithium Carbonate: Bottom - Range Fluctuation and Policy - Driven Expectations - The fraud of US non - farm data increased the market's concern about the global economic slowdown, and the expected demand for new energy vehicles decreased. The lithium carbonate price fell to the industry's cash - cost line of 60,000 yuan/ton from May to June. However, China's "dual - carbon" policy and the resilient demand in the energy - storage field partially offset the downward pressure. The volatility of lithium carbonate futures reached a new high since October 2024. After the price decline, the downstream rigid - demand procurement increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan/ton in the short term [19]. 5.2 Polysilicon: The Tug - of - War between Inventory Reduction and Technological Iteration - The fraud of US non - farm data led to a downward adjustment of the expected photovoltaic installation, causing the polysilicon price to fall below 35,000 yuan/ton in June, a decline of 18% from the May high. The technological iteration of the increasing penetration rate of N - type silicon wafers supported the premium of high - purity polysilicon. The global polysilicon inventory decreased from 398,000 tons at the end of 2024 to 367,000 tons in June 2025, but the inventory - reduction speed was lower than expected. The expectation of China imposing a 15% tariff on polysilicon exports further suppressed market sentiment [20]. 6. Iron Ore: The Tug - of - War between Supply Expectations and Demand Resilience 6.1 Contradiction between Short - Term Demand Support and Long - Term Capacity Impact - After the fraud of US non - farm data, the market's concern about China's crude - steel production control increased. From May to July, the blast - furnace operating rate remained at a high level, and the daily average hot - metal output in July was above 2.4 million tons, supporting the iron ore market demand. The price of iron ore fluctuated between $100 - 105/ton. The expected production of the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea at the end of 2025 will have a significant impact on the global iron ore supply pattern, forming a long - term supply suppression. The term structure of the iron ore futures market has changed from the Contango structure to the Back structure [23][24]. 6.2 Superimposed Impact of Policy Game and Green Transformation - The increasing expectation of China imposing a 5% tariff on imported iron ore has raised the spot premium of iron ore. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has changed the iron ore market structure, increasing the demand for high - grade ore. The "near - strong, far - weak" pattern of the iron ore market has become more prominent [25]. 7. Agricultural Product Futures: Indirect Transmission through the Dollar Cycle and Trade Policy 7.1 Soybeans: Double Suppression of South American Bumper Harvest and Tariff Game - The fraud of US non - farm data and the expected South American soybean bumper harvest (expected output of 165 million tons) led to a 4.2% decline in the US soybean futures price in June. China's 10% tariff on US soybeans increased the import cost and reduced the non - commercial net long positions. The sharp decrease in soybean arrivals in China from October will lead to a decline in the operating rate and processing volume of domestic soybean oil mills. The basis of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil futures is at a five - year low, and the prices of soybean oil and soybean meal are likely to rise [29][31]. 7.2 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal: The Tug - of - War between Trade Barriers and Inventory Cycle - China's 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal in May led to a sharp increase in the coastal rapeseed meal price. The policy of allowing the "domestic sales" of bonded - area rapeseed meal in June forced traders to accelerate exports, reducing domestic inventory. Uncertainties in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations may lead to a shortage of rapeseed arrivals in China after October, which will boost the prices of domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [32]. 7.3 Biodiesel Policy: Linkage between Energy Attributes and Agricultural Products - The fraud of US non - farm data led to a decrease in the US biodiesel blending ratio of soybean oil, causing the US soybean oil futures price to fall. The EU's revised Renewable Energy Directive (REDII) supported the rebound of rapeseed oil futures. In the long term, palm oil may be a new buying opportunity after a sharp decline [33][34]. 7.4 Sugar: The Expectation of a Medium - to - Long - Term Weak Trend Remains - The impact of non - farm data fraud on sugar prices is limited. The ICE raw - sugar futures price is mainly affected by fundamental factors. The global sugar supply mainly depends on the Brazilian sugar - producing area. The long - term trend of raw - sugar prices may be weak [35][36]. 7.5 Cotton: Double Suppression of Cotton Demand - The fraud of US non - farm data and the political turmoil led to a decline in the cotton futures price. The economic slowdown and the decline in crude oil prices dragging down the price of polyester (a cotton substitute) have double - suppressed cotton demand [37]. 8. The Global Market Will Face Structural Changes such as Policy Reconstruction 8.1 Reconstruction of Global and US - European Monetary Policy Expectations - After the significant downward revision of US non - farm data from May to June, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in 2025 has increased from 75 basis points to 100 basis points. The downward revision of non - farm data is to create momentum for the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process in September [38]. 8.2 The US May Enter a Cliff - like Interest - Rate Cut in 2026 - After the Fed starts to cut interest rates in September, the US will enter a period of loose monetary policy. In the second quarter of 2026, the Fed may lose its monetary - policy independence and start a cliff - like interest - rate cut [39]. 8.3 Global Financial Asset Reallocation Benefits Chinese Assets - With the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, international financial assets in the US will flow out, and global financial assets will be reallocated, benefiting Chinese assets [40].

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, major asset performance was led by the ChiNext Index, followed by oil and the CSI 500, with a general upward trend in risk assets, particularly in Chinese markets, while commodities showed mixed results [1][2][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In July, risk assets mostly rose, with Chinese assets leading the way and U.S. stocks reaching new highs, while domestic commodities experienced low-level increases [2][14]. - The performance of commodities was predominantly positive, with oil prices rising due to multiple favorable factors, while copper prices retreated due to lower-than-expected copper tariffs [2][17]. - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with technology stocks showing significant resilience due to strong earnings reports [2][19]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic landscape in July 2025 was characterized by a divergence between hard and soft data in the U.S., while China's soft data indicated a slowdown [4][62]. - The domestic "stock-bond seesaw" effect deepened, with the total A-share index rising by 4.7% in July, while the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 5.75 basis points to 1.71% [2][32]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Equity Assets - Future drivers for equity assets may include "profitability and risk appetite," with A-shares needing to respond to fundamental factors such as PPI trends and mid-year earnings [5][62]. - The reduction of uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China tariffs could enhance short-term export certainty, as recent high-level trade talks indicated a potential extension of tariff measures [5][62]. - New technological themes, such as advancements in artificial intelligence, are expected to create investment opportunities [5][62]. Group 4: Market Timing Signals - The M1-BCI-PPI timing system indicated a slight improvement in overall positive signals despite a slowdown in actual GDP growth [6][62]. - The stock-bond valuation ratio showed a return to neutrality, suggesting that while equity assets have lost some advantage, the overall score still leans towards equities [7][62]. Group 5: Sector Performance - In July, over 90% of industries in the domestic market reported positive returns, with growth and cyclical sectors leading the gains, particularly in steel, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials [2][32][44]. - The real estate sector saw a widening year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand home sales showing more resilience compared to new homes [2][42]. Group 6: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market showed a general upward trend in July, with significant increases in domestic pricing for black metals and polysilicon, while international oil and copper prices exhibited mixed performance [17][62]. - The Brent crude oil futures price increased by 7.3% in July, driven by geopolitical factors and tariff negotiations, although it faced a pullback in early August [17][62].

特朗普协议背后，隐藏着三重战略意图：经济牌——通过关税优惠绑定巴基斯坦纺织品出口，压缩美国贸易逆差；围堵牌——在宣布对印度加征25%关税的 同时拉拢巴基斯坦，试图改变南亚力量平衡；去中牌——在中国巨额能源投资的包围圈中打入"楔子"，削弱中国影响力。 然而，巴基斯坦并非任人摆布的棋子。中巴经济走廊（CPEC）已形成价值620亿美元的基础设施网络，如同深入国土的"能源血管"。美巴协议签署后，巴基 斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫立即声明："巴中关系是外交政策的基石"，向中国释放安抚信号。 巴基斯坦能源困局：在中美博弈中寻求光明 巴基斯坦的能源危机已达到临界点，每年为进口油气支付130亿美元，国家财政岌岌可危，全国更是长达六年中断天然气新用户接入，民生困苦。为打破僵 局，巴基斯坦政府祭出猛药：重启天然气新用户接入，但价格完全美元化，并取消补贴，申请者需缴纳十倍押金（4万卢比）且签署苛刻的免责条款。此举 如同将国际油价的波动直接引爆至民生领域，社会风险巨大。能源分析师直言不讳："这等于把国际市场的火药桶埋进百姓厨房！" 然而，就在这危急关头，美国前总统特朗普的一纸声明震撼南亚：美国石油巨头即将进军巴基斯坦，联手开发"巨型油田" ...

格隆汇8月3日丨利雅得市场Tadawul全股指数跌0.8%，报10,833.10 点。这是自7月22日下跌1.3%以来的 最大跌幅。沙特阿美对指数下跌的拖累最大，跌幅为1.2%。沙特阿美基础油公司跌幅最大，下跌 10.0%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful flight of China's independently developed electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft marks a significant advancement in offshore logistics and supply chain innovation in the country [1] Group 1: Technological Breakthrough - China's self-developed 2-ton electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, named "Kairyou," has successfully completed its first material transport flight to an offshore oil platform [1] - The aircraft transported fresh fruits and emergency medical supplies, demonstrating its capability in logistics applications [1] Group 2: Operational Details - The flight took off from a land point in Shenzhen and covered a distance of 150 kilometers over the sea to reach the oil and gas platform [1] - The entire flight duration was 58 minutes, showcasing the efficiency of the aircraft in long-distance transportation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has triggered global market turmoil, leading to declines in both U.S. and European stock markets [1][6]. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.23% at 43,588.58, the S&P 500 down 1.60% at 6,238.01, and the Nasdaq down 2.24% at 20,650.13 [2][3]. - For the week, the Dow Jones fell 2.92%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.36%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.17% [2]. - European markets also experienced declines, with Germany's DAX down 2.66%, France's CAC40 down 2.91%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.70% [2][3]. Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July, below expectations, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [6][7]. - Revisions to previous months' employment data showed a drastic reduction, with May's job additions revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [6]. - The labor market's rapid deterioration raises concerns about a potential recession, as indicated by the market's heightened risk aversion [6][7]. Tariff Developments - President Trump signed an executive order to increase tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%, effective August 1, and indicated adjustments to "reciprocal tariffs" for other countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41% [7][8]. - This move has intensified market fears and contributed to the overall decline in stock prices [6][7]. Oil Market Impact - International oil prices fell sharply, with U.S. crude down 2.89% to $67.26 per barrel and Brent crude down 3.00% to $69.55 per barrel [9][10]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to disappointing U.S. employment data and ongoing production increases by OPEC+, which has raised concerns about a potential oversupply in the market [10]. Precious Metals and Bonds - On August 1, international precious metals futures saw gains, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.01% to $3,416.00 per ounce and silver futures up 1.07% to $37.11 per ounce [11]. - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 25.49 basis points to 3.698% and the 10-year yield down 14.62 basis points to 4.220% [11].