Market Analysis - The A-share market continues to adjust, with major indices declining and trading volume remaining stable at around 2.5 trillion [6][4] - The technology sector is underperforming, while the energy sector shows relative strength, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [5][7] - The coal sector is expected to benefit from limited global oil supply, leading to increased demand for coal for electricity generation [5] - The lithium battery materials sector is also performing well, with companies like Zhongke Electric seeing over 10% gains due to strong industry demand [5] Bond Market - The government bond futures market shows mixed performance, with the 30-year contract down 0.25% and the 10-year contract down 0.07% [11] - The overall funding environment remains loose, with Shibor rates mostly declining [11] - The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern, with long-term bonds still holding investment value [11][17] Commodity Market - The commodity market shows mixed results, with energy prices leading the gains; crude oil prices rose by 5.41% [9][12] - Geopolitical issues are impacting various commodities, with prices for agricultural products like soybeans also rising due to supply chain constraints [13] - The outlook for crude oil remains volatile, with expectations that geopolitical tensions will keep prices elevated [12][17] Trading Hotspots - Key sectors to watch include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, robotics, and consumer goods, all supported by government policies and technological advancements [14][16] - The brokerage sector is benefiting from high trading volumes in the A-share market, indicating potential for continued interest [14] Core Thoughts - The market is currently influenced by external risk factors, suggesting a structural market characteristic with ongoing rotation between traditional and emerging sectors [17] - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile state, influenced by various economic indicators and geopolitical developments [17] - Commodity prices, particularly for oil and precious metals, are likely to remain affected by geopolitical risks and supply-demand dynamics [17]

| 运营指标 | 单位 | 2026 | 年 | 2025 | 年 | 同比变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | (%) | | | | | 月 2 | 累计 | 月 2 | 累计 | 月 2 | 累计 | | （一）煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 1. 商品煤产量 | 百万吨 | 25.1 | 52.5 | 27.0 | 53.1 | (7.0) | (1.1) | | 煤炭销售量 2. | 百万吨 | 33.2 | 66.4 | 34.3 | 64.7 | (3.2) | 2.6 | | （二）运输 | | | | | | | | | 自有铁路运输周转量 1. | 十亿吨公里 | 25.4 | 51.1 | 25.7 | 49.1 | (1.2) | 4.1 | | 黄骅港装船量 2. | 百万吨 | 16.8 | 35.3 | 15.1 | 30.4 | 11.3 | 16.1 | | 天津煤码头装船量 3. | 百万吨 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 4.4 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market indices are experiencing a volatile adjustment pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index dipping to 4086.85 points before rebounding, driven by sectors like infrastructure and wind power, but facing pressure again towards the end of trading [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index weakened due to the drag from technology and new energy sectors, while the ChiNext Index saw a narrower decline supported by lithium battery materials [3] Sector Performance - There is a clear divergence in stock performance, with more stocks declining than rising. The cyclical and defensive infrastructure sectors are the main market drivers, with wind power equipment, chemicals, fertilizers, home appliances, and construction decoration leading the gains. In contrast, previously strong technology growth sectors like AI computing, semiconductor equipment, solar energy, and commercial aerospace are collectively weakening [5] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The trading volume in both markets has slightly decreased, indicating a state of existing capital adjustment and competition. The capital structure shows a shift from high-valuation technology growth sectors to low-valuation cyclical and defensive sectors, with an increased proportion of trading volume in the Shanghai market, highlighting a growing risk aversion among investors [6] Institutional and Retail Investor Behavior - Institutional investors are clearly shifting their positions, moving funds from high-volatility growth sectors to low-valuation, high-dividend, and performance-stable defensive sectors. They are taking profits in computing, electronics, communications, media, and new energy, while increasing positions in power equipment, basic chemicals, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and banks. Retail investors are also adjusting their positions in line with market style changes, chasing high-priced precious metals and state-owned enterprises while selling off AI and semiconductor sectors that are experiencing corrections [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Energy price fluctuations affected the futures amplitude, and the fundamentals limited price elasticity. The coking coal fundamentals showed a "double - increase in supply and demand" situation with no prominent contradictions. The coking coal futures had support at the bottom due to energy premium, but demand boost was limited, so the futures would mainly move in a volatile manner. The coke fundamentals showed stable overall production. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production declined, and coke demand decreased accordingly. After the Two Sessions, pig iron production would gradually increase, driving up demand. The new round of coke price cut was implemented last Friday, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises and slightly improving the profitability of steel mills. Recently, as coking coal prices rose, the cost - side support for coke became stronger, and the futures followed the coking coal fluctuations [6][31][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The double - coking futures maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week. Energy price fluctuations affected the futures amplitude, and the fundamentals limited price elasticity. The coking coal supply was slightly loose, with stable inventory structure. Independent coking enterprises slightly replenished coking coal, and steel mills replenished raw material inventory. Coke production was stable. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production and coke consumption declined. The new round of coke price cut was implemented, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises [6] 3.2 Market Focus - **Events**: From January 20th to 26th, 2026, the Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration found major accident hidden dangers in Huixian Longtian Coal Industry Co., Ltd. and ordered it to suspend production for rectification for 2 days. During the 2026 Two Sessions, many NPC deputies and CPPCC members put forward suggestions on the coal industry, focusing on carbon reduction, pollution control, and ecological environmental protection. Due to the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, LNG supply tightened, and India might rely more on coal - fired power generation this summer. The Canadian Coal Association emphasized the strategic importance of metallurgical coal [7] - **Main Views**: Coking coal supply was slightly loose, inventory structure was stable, independent coking enterprises slightly replenished coking coal, steel mills replenished raw material inventory, coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel mills was stable, pig iron production and coke consumption declined, and the new round of coke price cut was implemented, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises [7] 3.3 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Coking coal inventory was stable, and the inventory accumulation pressure improved compared with the same period last year. Geopolitical conflicts stimulated oil prices to rise, and coal in the same energy sector had a premium. Downstream enterprises slightly replenished inventory [10] - **Bearish Factors**: Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level, and the supply side was slightly loose. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production declined [10] 3.4 Data Analysis - **Coking Coal Supply**: As of the week of March 13th, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 87.16%, a week - on - week increase of 4.84%, and the daily average output increased by 2.92 tons to 77.7 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 31%, a week - on - week increase of 4.43%, and the daily average output increased by 3.18 tons to 23.08 tons. Since March, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday high level. The domestic mine enterprises have fully resumed work, and the operating rate has recovered to a relatively high level compared with the same period last year. The capacity of coal washing plants is recovering slowly [12] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of the week of March 13th, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 277.68 tons, a decrease of 8.58 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 313.6 tons, an increase of 25.07 tons; the coking coal inventory at ports was 267.55 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons. This week, the mine enterprise inventory decreased, the coal washing plant inventory increased, the overall inventory was stable, and the inventory accumulation pressure improved compared with last year [14] - **Independent Coking Enterprises' Coking Coal Replenishment**: As of March 13th, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 969.43 tons, an increase of 19.98 tons. The available inventory days were 11.41 days, an increase of 0.24 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 100.43 tons, a decrease of 9.87 tons. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, and the raw material coking coal changed from previous inventory reduction to slight replenishment [17] - **Steel Mills' Raw Material Inventory Replenishment**: As of March 13th, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 777.63 tons, an increase of 1.99 tons. The available inventory days were 12.44 days, an increase of 0.03 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 687.55 tons, an increase of 16.29 tons compared with the previous period, and the available days were 13.17 days, an increase of 0.64 days compared with the previous period. Steel mills replenished raw material inventory [21] - **Coke Production of Independent Coking Enterprises and Steel Mills**: As of March 13th, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.91%, a decrease of 0.04% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 63.9 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons compared with the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.89%, and the daily average output of coke was 47 tons, the same as the previous period. This week, the overall coke production was stable [23] - **Pig Iron Production and Coke Consumption**: As of the week of March 13th, China's coke consumption was 99.54 tons, a decrease of 2.88 tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average pig iron output was 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.39 tons. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production declined, and coke demand decreased accordingly [25] - **Coke Price Cut and Profit Situation**: As of March 13th, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 3 yuan/ton, changing from profit to loss. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 41.13%, an increase of 3.03% compared with the previous period. The new round of coke price cut was implemented last Friday, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises and slightly improving the profitability of steel mills [27] - **Double - Coking Futures - Spot Basis Structure**: The double - coking futures moved in a volatile and slightly stronger manner [29] 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coking Coal**: The domestic mine enterprises have fully resumed work, and the operating rate has recovered to a relatively high level compared with the same period last year. The capacity of coal washing plants is recovering slowly, and the supply side is slightly loose. This week, the mine enterprise inventory decreased, the coal washing plant inventory increased, the overall inventory was stable, and the inventory accumulation pressure improved compared with last year. Independent coking enterprises slightly reduced their coke inventory, and the raw material coking coal changed from previous inventory reduction to slight replenishment. Steel mills also replenished raw material inventory. Overall, the coking coal fundamentals showed a "double - increase in supply and demand" situation with no prominent contradictions. With the Middle East conflict not over, energy prices fluctuated at a high level. Driven by energy premium, there was support at the bottom of the coking coal futures, but demand boost was limited, so the futures would mainly move in a volatile manner [31] - **Coke**: The overall coke production was stable. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production declined, and coke demand decreased accordingly. After the Two Sessions, pig iron production would gradually increase, driving up demand. The new round of coke price cut was implemented last Friday, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises and slightly improving the profitability of steel mills. Recently, as coking coal prices rose, the cost - side support for coke became stronger, and the futures followed the coking coal fluctuations [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The Iran geopolitical conflict has driven up the prices of crude oil and energy - chemical sectors, with the sentiment spilling over to coal and iron ore, leading to an increase in coking coal prices and iron ore shipping costs. Market rumors of China restricting BHP's iron ore procurement and post - holiday restocking demand from downstream have tightened the tradable inventory at ports, providing cost support. However, high inventory and high warehouse receipts of hot - rolled coils pose pressure, and steel exports face resistance due to rising oil prices and RMB appreciation, limiting the short - term rebound height [3]. - Iron Ore: Spot liquidity has tightened, with BHP Newman powder added to the spot restriction list, prompting urgent transfers by steel mills and driving up prices. The steel fundamentals are weak, squeezing blast furnace profits. There are doubts about the sustainability of BHP's shipping gap to China, increasing the probability of a short - term reversal [19]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Domestic coal mines are in the resumption phase, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has recovered rapidly, resulting in high supply pressure and intensifying the short - term oversupply of coking coal. The cost of coal for coke furnaces has loosened, slightly expanding coking profits, and rising chemical product prices have improved comprehensive profits, which may increase coke enterprise开工. From March to April is the verification period for terminal demand. The late Spring Festival has slowed down the resumption rhythm, and uncertainties in the Middle East route have suppressed steel exports. The black series as a whole faces significant downward pressure, and while there is support at the bottom for coking coal and coke, their upward elasticity is limited [30]. - Ferroalloys: In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but weak downstream steel terminal demand and high inventory pressure of plates may limit the upward space for ferroalloys [48]. - Soda Ash: The daily output of soda ash has returned to a high of 117,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. Current rigid demand is generally stable and weak, but there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. Inventory performance is better than expected. If the futures price rises, there is some restocking space for middle - stream players such as those in the spot - futures market, but due to limited demand elasticity, the price increase space is expected to be limited. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation. In the medium - to - long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, waiting for further accumulation of industrial contradictions. Apart from the fundamentals, the overall valuation of soda ash and glass is not high, and they may be driven by other sectors [62]. - Glass: The cold - repair expectation for float glass continues, and daily melting is declining. However, high middle - stream inventory has always been a risk concern in the market, as once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be huge and the downstream may not be able to absorb it. There is also continuous news of ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines in Shahe waiting to be ignited. The expectation of supply recovery and high middle - stream inventory limit the upward space for glass, and demand needs to be verified. In addition to the fundamentals, macro and sentiment factors should also be considered, as it may be affected and driven [85]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,193 yuan/ton, up from 3,174 yuan/ton on March 12 [4]. - The month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts also changed slightly. For instance, the rebar 01 - 05 month - to - month spread decreased from 54 to 51 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the summary prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous day. For example, the summary price of rebar in China was 3,339 yuan/ton, up from 3,325 yuan/ton on March 12 [8]. - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) increased from 46 to 57 [8]. - **Other Ratios**: - The 01 volume - rebar ratio was 125 on both March 13 and March 12 [13]. - The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on both March 13 and March 12 [16]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract was 758.5 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from March 12 [20]. - The basis of iron ore contracts also changed. For example, the 01 basis was 38.5 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from March 12 [20]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the prices of various iron ore varieties in Rizhao increased compared to the previous day. For example, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from March 12 [20]. - **Fundamentals**: - The daily average pig iron output on March 13, 2026, was 221.2 tons, down 6.39 tons compared to March 6 [24]. - The 45 - port desilting volume was 317.9 tons, up 6.82 tons compared to March 6 [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: - The month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts remained stable or changed slightly. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - to - month spread was - 211.5 on March 13, the same as the previous day [34]. - The main coking profit on the futures market was - 31 yuan/ton on March 13, the same as the previous day [34]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the prices of various coking coal and coke varieties remained stable or changed slightly. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1,450 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [37]. - The import profits of different coking coal sources also changed. For example, the import profit of Mongolian coal (long - term contract) was 303 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - On March 12, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 72 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan from the previous day [49]. - The silicon iron spot prices in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous week. For example, the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from March 5 [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - On March 13, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 74 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day [50]. - The silicon manganese spot prices in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous week. For example, the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from March 6 [50]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 05 contract was 1,277 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan from March 12, with a daily increase rate of 1.67% [63]. - The month - to - month spreads of soda ash contracts also changed. For example, the month - to - month spread (5 - 9) increased from - 66 to - 58 [63]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the spot prices of heavy - soda ash and light - soda ash in various regions remained stable. For example, the heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1,280 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [63]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 05 contract was 1,112 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from March 12, with a daily increase rate of 3.35% [86]. - The month - to - month spreads of glass contracts also changed. For example, the month - to - month spread (5 - 9) increased from - 117 to - 113 [86]. - **Sales**: - On March 12, 2026, the sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 145, 120, 116, and 119 respectively [87].

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics expected to lead to a new upward cycle by 2026, maintaining a strategic bullish outlook for the energy sector over the next 5-10 years [1]. Group 1: 2025 Coal Market Review - The coal market in 2025 experienced significant fluctuations, with H1 characterized by a demand shortfall due to weather factors and high inventory levels from record imports and domestic production, leading to prices dropping below 800, 770, 700, and 650 CNY/ton [1]. - By June 2025, electricity demand rebounded with a 5% growth, contradicting pessimistic market expectations, while production restrictions initiated in July helped tighten the supply-demand balance, resulting in a rapid price increase [1]. Group 2: Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, driven by demand from emerging sectors such as AI and renewable energy, with electricity demand expected to maintain a growth rate above 5% [2]. - The decline in new installations of solar power due to policy changes and economic pressures may alleviate the substitution pressure on coal, allowing thermal power demand to recover [2]. - Supply-side measures to control overproduction and potential reductions in imports could stabilize the overall supply, with coal prices expected to exceed 800 CNY/ton in H2 2026 [2]. Group 3: Global Energy Perspective - Globally, energy demand is surging due to deep electrification in industrial sectors and the rapid expansion of data centers, alongside climate change impacts driving peak demand [3]. - The current energy supply structure, particularly in developed countries, is struggling to meet the growing demand, indicating that coal will continue to play a crucial role as a stabilizing energy source [3].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has identified resilient "winners" in the current rising oil price environment, specifically focusing on Hong Kong stocks, all of which are rated as "overweight" [1] Group 1: Company Targets - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) has a target price set at HKD 13 [1] - China Hongqiao Group Limited (01378) has a target price set at HKD 40 [1] - Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (601600) (02600) has a target price set at HKD 16 [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (600188) (01171) has a target price set at HKD 12 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has identified resilient "winners" in the current oil price rally, specifically focusing on Hong Kong stocks, all of which are rated as "overweight" [1] Group 1: Company Ratings and Target Prices - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) has a target price set at HKD 13 [1] - China Hongqiao Group Limited (01378) has a target price set at HKD 40 [1] - Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (02600) has a target price set at HKD 16 [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (01171) has a target price set at HKD 12 [1]

策略专题 2026 年 3 月 13 日 策 略 专 题 把握煤炭板块"海内外共振"行情窗口 摘要： 2026年开年以来，煤炭板块已走出估值修复行情，当前A股煤炭板块正 处于供需格局持续改善、估值修复到位、板块轮动补涨需求明确的关键节 点，叠加国内产能刚性约束、海外供给收缩、地缘政治扰动等因素催化，配 置窗口已然打开。 国内反内卷与严监管常态化，产能释放理性化。政策层面，2025年7月 国家能源局综合司印发《国家能源局综合司关于组织开展煤矿生产情况核查 促进煤炭供应平稳有序的通知》，此外，2025年12月国家发改委等六部门印 发《煤炭清洁高效利用重点领域标杆水平和基准水平（2025年版）》，从能 耗端进一步约束了供给的粗放增长。 印尼减产引发海外供给收缩。印尼"资源民族主义"削减煤炭产量，当 前印尼矿商暂停现货煤炭出口。海外供给的收缩叠加美伊冲突导致国际运费 飙升，推升了国际煤价，导致海内外煤价倒挂，削弱进口煤对国内市场的补 充作用，转而提升对内贸煤的需求依赖。 煤炭前期调整充分，估值与价格仍处历史低位。煤炭板块经过前期持续 深度调整，调整时间与空间均已充分释放，下行压力基本出清，2026年开年 以来，煤炭板 ...

Market Performance Review - The equity market has shown strong performance this year, with the CSI 2000, CSI 1000, and CSI Dividend indices performing relatively well. The cyclical style leads the market, followed by growth and stability styles. Strong sectors include coal, oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, building materials, electric equipment, and new energy [3][8] - In the commodity market, the South China crude oil index has performed relatively well this year [11] - The commodity fund index has also shown strong performance, benefiting from the rise in oil and gold prices [11] ETF Fund Capital Tracking - As of now, the cyclical sector (real estate, oil, coal, non-ferrous metals, steel, building materials, chemicals) has a relatively high capital heat. The top 5 ETFs by capital heat are: Huaan Gold ETF, Haifutong CSI Short Bond ETF, Fortune CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, Huaxia CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme ETF, and Hang Seng Technology [15][17] - The capital heat is assessed based on net inflows over various time frames, with the cyclical sector showing a capital heat score of 100 [15][16] Future Strategy Outlook - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan." Key tasks outlined in the government work report include building a strong domestic market, fostering new growth drivers, and enhancing technological self-reliance [18][19] - The economic recovery transmission chain indicates that in a context of interest rate cuts and weakened dollar credit, financial assets (gold, silver) perform strongly first, followed by industrial metals (copper), and then energy and chemical sectors due to supply constraints and demand recovery [22] - The current market cycle can be compared to the 2014 cycle, which was divided into three phases. The current cycle is characterized by growth leading, followed by a potential catch-up phase for cyclical and consumer styles [24][25]