Group 1: Economic Outlook - The expectation for domestic demand is strengthening due to intensified debt reduction policies and a backdrop of overseas interest rate cuts [1][2] - The government aims to establish a debt management mechanism that aligns with high-quality development, focusing on reducing existing hidden debts while promoting economic stability [2] Group 2: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand as it enters the peak season in September, although growth remains limited [2] - The implementation of policies to restrict overproduction is anticipated to enhance capacity utilization in the medium term, with current low demand and prices [2] - Key companies to watch include Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [2] Group 3: Glass Industry - The glass industry currently lacks fundamental support, with supply-demand imbalances persisting and limited improvement in downstream demand [3] - The industry is expected to experience bottom-level price fluctuations, with environmental regulations likely to accelerate the pace of industry upgrades [3] - Key company to monitor is Qibin Group [3] Group 4: Fiberglass Industry - The fiberglass sector is experiencing a surge in demand driven by the AI industry, with a notable increase in both volume and price for low dielectric products [3] - The industry is expected to see explosive growth in demand alongside AI advancements [3] - Key companies to focus on include China Jushi and China National Building Material [3] Group 5: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price pressure expected [3] - The sector is experiencing strong calls for price increases and profitability improvements, with several product categories issuing price increase notices [3] - Key companies to watch include Oriental Yuhong, Skshu Paint, Beixin Building Materials, and Rabbit Baby [3]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. The upstream cost side still provides support, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the possible impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling; if not, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from September 12. The full - latex basis decreased by 14.37%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 1.34%. The price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.67%, while the price of glue increased by 0.36%. Some domestic raw material prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.46%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 75.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.91% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, India's decreased by 2.17%, and China's decreased by 1.27%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. Domestic tire production decreased by 8.16%, while tire exports increased by 10.51%. The total import of natural rubber increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 5.40%. The production cost of some dry rubbers in Thailand decreased, and the production margin of STR20 dry rubber increased by 16.72% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 1.30%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed to varying degrees [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: The overall sentiment of the commodity market has improved, and soda ash has rebounded due to macro - sentiment. However, the fundamental oversupply problem still exists. In the medium - term, downstream demand will remain at the previous rigid - demand level. After the traditional summer maintenance season, with high supply, if there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, inventory will face further pressure. It is advisable to short on rebounds [3]. - **Glass**: The glass market has rebounded due to the improvement of the macro - atmosphere. Last week, the spot market had good transactions and inventory decreased. However, the inventory in the middle reaches has not been significantly reduced. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Short - term: stay on the sidelines; medium - term: pay attention to the actual demand in the peak season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 0.16%, and the glass 2509 contract decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 0.66%, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased by 0.37% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 increased by 1.24%, and the weekly production increased by 1.25%. The float - glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.70%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [3]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The log market shows a pattern of "weak supply and demand, stable prices, and slightly decreasing inventory". The core contradiction lies in the game between weak demand and fluctuating supply. Prices are temporarily stable with cost support. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of shipment volume in the seasonal peak season. Currently, the 09 contract has new registered warehouse receipts, and the spot market pressure has increased. It is recommended to go long on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 15, the log 2509 contract decreased by 0.39%, the log 2511 contract increased by 0.81%, and the log 2601 contract decreased by 1.15%. The prices of some spot logs remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38%. As of September 12, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 302 million cubic meters, an increase of 8 million cubic meters from the previous week. The expected number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports this week decreased by 50% compared with last week, and the arrival volume also decreased by 50% [4]. - **Demand**: As of September 12, the daily log outbound volume was 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.17 million cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The cost of industrial silicon is expected to rise as raw material prices increase and the electricity price in the southwest region will go up during the dry season. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance. Considering the possible impact of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week and the increasing demand for downstream replenishment before the National Day, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips, but also be aware of the inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Main - contract Basis**: On September 15, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 12.09%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 122.22%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 0.58%, and the basis decreased by 0.76% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 99.77%, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1750.00%, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 98.63%, the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 100.00%, and the 2602 - 2603 spread remained unchanged [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon output increased by 14.01%, Xinjiang's by 12.91%, Yunnan's by 41.19%, and Sichuan's by 10.72%. The national开工率 increased by 6.20%, Xinjiang's by 15.25%, Yunnan's by 44.09%, and Sichuan's by 19.83%. The output of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, the output of polysilicon increased by 23.31%, the output of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.60%, and the export volume of industrial silicon increased by 8.32% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.93%, the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.62%, the Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory remained unchanged, the social inventory increased by 0.37%, the contract inventory decreased by 0.19%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.86% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints In the short term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the market is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Fundamentally, the overall supply reduction in September is not obvious as some factories resume production to make up for the supply reduction. The silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and there may be a slight inventory build - up in September. The downstream has accepted the price increase of polysilicon, and the spot transmission mechanism is smooth. In the future, the market pays less attention to fundamentals and more to policy expectations, so the price fluctuation risk is high. It is advisable to be cautious and follow the situation of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the average price of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer prices increased, with the 210mm silicon wafer increasing by 3.07% and the 210R silicon wafer increasing by 3.62%. Some battery and component prices remained unchanged [6]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract decreased by 0.12%. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the month - on - first - continuous spread increasing by 100.22% [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 0.73%, and the weekly polysilicon output increased by 3.31%. The monthly polysilicon output increased by 23.31%, the import volume increased by 40.30%, the export volume increased by 5.96%, and the net export volume decreased by 14.92%. The monthly silicon wafer output increased by 6.24%, the import volume decreased by 15.41%, the export volume increased by 11.37%, and the net export volume increased by 15.56%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.14% [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78%, and the polysilicon contract increased by 0.38% [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a marginal narrowing of the year-on-year decline in infrastructure investment, with a recommendation to focus on investment opportunities in the central and western regions of China [2][3] - From January to August 2025, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, while narrow infrastructure and broad infrastructure investments increased by 2% and 5.4% respectively [2][3] - In August 2025, the year-on-year decline in real estate development investment was 19.9%, with narrow infrastructure and broad infrastructure investments declining by 5.9% and 6.4% respectively [2][3] Group 2 - The cumulative new special bonds issued from January to August 2025 reached 32,641.37 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.9% [2] - The report highlights that the issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year to support major engineering projects [2] - The real estate sector continues to show weakness, with a year-on-year decline in sales area of 4.7% from January to August 2025 [3] Group 3 - Cement production from January to August 2025 was 1.105 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8% [4] - In August 2025, the average cement price increased to 349 yuan per ton, although it remains 38 yuan lower than the previous year [5] - The report notes that the demand for cement is expected to improve seasonally, which may lead to a gradual recovery in the profitability of cement companies [5] Group 4 - The production of flat glass from January to August 2025 was 64,818 million weight cases, down 4.5% year-on-year [6] - The report indicates that there is a potential for demand improvement in the glass market as inventory levels are being digested [6] - The overall operating rate of the flat glass industry was reported at 82.04% as of the end of August 2025 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market (excluding non - ferrous and precious metals) is in a state of oscillatory correction and volume - shrinking convergence. The black sector shows signs of stabilization and strengthening, but the suppression from the real - world situation remains. Although the short - term price of the black sector may experience periodic corrections due to real - demand factors, with the expected overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - term investment around mid - October [10]. - For steel products, the demand for rebar remains weak even in the traditional peak season, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - For iron ore, the short - term price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish. The recent increase in overseas shipments and the recovery of iron - making production support the demand for iron ore. However, attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions in finished products will spread to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the short - term price is affected by the rise in coking coal. The disk prices of both maintain an oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines [9]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as furnace - type elimination, the price may rise further; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit price increases. For polysilicon, the disk price is mainly influenced by policies, and the focus is on capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [14][15]. - For glass, although the inventory has decreased due to pre - holiday stocking, the overall market supply is still abundant, and terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to view it with caution and a slightly bullish attitude. For soda ash, the industry supply has slightly shrunk, and the market trading atmosphere is tepid. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar主力合约 was 3136 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.287%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 3369 tons to 255018 tons, and the positions increased by 65886 hands to 1.97807 million hands. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil主力合约 was 3370 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.178%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 58841 tons, and the positions increased by 22123 hands to 1.347955 million hands [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3380 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the price trend of finished products is weak. The economic data in August slowed down, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and the export volume has slightly declined. The demand for rebar is sluggish, and the inventory pressure is increasing, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively neutral, with a slight reduction in inventory [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the iron ore主力合约 (I2601) was 796.00 yuan/ton, down 0.44% (- 3.50 yuan). The positions decreased by 7364 hands to 535,800 hands, and the weighted positions were 851,600 hands. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.94 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.12% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron - ore shipments have rebounded to a high level in the same period. The iron - making production has recovered, and the short - term demand for iron ore is supported. The port inventory and steel - mill imported - ore inventory have both increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices**: On September 15, the manganese silicon主力 (SM601 contract) rose 1.27% to close at 5906 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon主力 (SF511 contract) rose 1.64% to close at 5700 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The disk prices of both maintain an oscillatory pattern. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the pressure at 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton and the support at 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. For ferrosilicon, pay attention to the pressure at 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and the support at 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the industrial silicon主力 (SI2511 contract) was 8800 yuan/ton, up 0.63% (+ 55 yuan). The weighted positions increased by 20228 hands to 507,832 hands. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 421 was 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The production capacity is in surplus, the inventory is at a high level, and the demand is insufficient. If the market continues to discuss furnace - type elimination, the price may rise; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit price increases [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the polysilicon主力 (PS2511 contract) was 53545 yuan/ton, down 0.12% (- 65 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 1472 hands to 300,197 hands. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 48.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 50.05 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type recycled material was 51.55 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of - 1995 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The disk price is mainly influenced by policies. The supply is close to the high level in the same period, and part of the inventory has been transferred downstream. The price of N - type dense and recycled materials has increased, and the component segment is relatively stalemate. Pay attention to capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the glass主力合约 was 1185 yuan/ton, up 0.34% (+ 4 yuan). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%) to 615.83 million cases. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 60190 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 7686 hands [17]. - **Market Analysis**: The industry supply has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased due to pre - holiday stocking. However, the overall market supply is abundant, and terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to view it with caution and a slightly bullish attitude [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the soda - ash主力合约 was 1287 yuan/ton, up 0.47% (+ 6 yuan). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1197 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%) to 179.75 million tons, with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 1480 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 4605 hands [18]. - **Market Analysis**: The industry supply has slightly shrunk due to production - line overhauls. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most purchase based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The contradiction in the soda ash industry has been alleviated in the short term, but the oversupply situation is difficult to improve in the long term. The downstream products may provide slight support for the soda ash price, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to macro - changes [8][9]. - The domestic photovoltaic glass market has seen a significant price increase in early September 2025, driven by strong demand. The supply - side pressure of float glass has eased marginally, and the cost side has some support, but the demand side is weak. The glass futures main contract is expected to show a short - term upward - fluctuating trend [10][11]. Group 4: Soda Ash Market Market Data - On September 15, the main soda ash futures contract SA601 closed at 1308 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 1.71%, with a daily reduction of 1607 lots [7][8]. Fundamentals - Weekly production increased to 76.11 tons, a 1.24% week - on - week increase, but the industry still faced high inventory and weak demand. The factory inventory decreased to 179.75 tons, 2.46 tons less than last Thursday, but remained at a high level [8]. - The total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 78.57 tons, a 1.44% week - on - week decrease, and the overall shipment rate was 103.23%, a 2.81 - percentage - point decrease [8]. Outlook - The industry contradiction has been alleviated in the short term, but the long - term oversupply situation remains. The downstream float glass has stable daily melting volume, and the photovoltaic glass has good production and sales, which may support the soda ash price slightly. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [9]. Group 5: Glass Market Market Data - On September 15, the FG601 contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 2.72%, with an increase of 30057 lots in positions [7]. Fundamentals - In early September 2025, the domestic photovoltaic glass market saw a price increase due to strong demand. The float glass supply - side pressure has eased, and the cost side has support, but the demand side is weak [10][11]. Outlook - The glass futures main contract is expected to show a short - term upward - fluctuating trend [11].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing implementation of debt reduction policies, emphasizing the need to balance development and safety while enhancing government debt management mechanisms. This is expected to provide strong support for stable economic growth [4] - There is an increasing expectation for domestic demand to strengthen, particularly in sectors such as waterproofing and cement, which are anticipated to benefit significantly from improved cash flow and are currently at the bottom of the industry cycle [4] Summary by Sections Cement - The cement industry is entering a peak season, with overall demand showing slow recovery but limited growth. In August 2025, the monthly cement production was 148 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [5][9] - The implementation of policies to limit overproduction is expected to lead to a continuous decline in capacity, thereby significantly improving capacity utilization [5] Glass - The glass industry is experiencing a downward trend in demand due to the impact of the real estate sector. The demand showed some recovery during the off-season from June to August, but supply-demand conflicts persist [5][14] - The report anticipates that the anti-involution policies will not lead to a blanket removal of capacity but will raise environmental standards and costs, accelerating the industry's cold repair progress [5] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is driven by demand from the AI industry, with low dielectric products experiencing a surge in both volume and price. The demand is expected to grow explosively alongside AI developments [5] Consumer Building Materials - The profitability of the consumer building materials sector has reached a bottom, with no further downward price pressure. The industry is seeing a strong push for price increases, particularly in waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum board, leading to expectations of profitability improvement in the second half of the year [6] Market Performance - In the past week (September 8-14), the construction materials sector index increased by 0.89%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.52% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.65% [7]

Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Steel market: The steel fundamentals are under significant pressure, with super - seasonal inventory accumulation leading to a contraction in steel mill profits and an increasing negative feedback risk, which suppresses the upside space of the market. However, expectations for peak - season demand, positive macro - expectations, and anticipated pre - National Day restocking by downstream and steel mills support the raw material end, limiting the downside space. The steel market is expected to show a volatile consolidation pattern in the near term [3] - Iron ore market: Short - term iron ore prices are strong due to tight supply and rising demand. However, weak steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits cap the upside of iron ore prices. There may also be a risk of "good news being fully priced in" [19] - Coal and coke market: Except for rebar, other steel products in the blast furnace process still have profits, so blast furnace steel mills have weak willingness to cut production. Electric furnace steel mills are suffering significant losses, with some regions having production resumptions and others cut - offs. High steel supply and inventory pressure will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" theme remains a focus, and pre - National Day inventory transfers may improve the supply - demand structure. The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [31] - Ferroalloy market: The trading logic for ferroalloys in the long - term lies in the "anti - involution" expectation. After the price decline, ferroalloys are near the cost line, limiting the downside. The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, and the supply - demand pressure may ease as production profit declines and the output in the southern silicon - manganese producing areas is expected to fall [49] - Soda ash market: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, and factors affecting supply or cost will be repeatedly traded. Soda ash demand is stable, but the supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream capping prices [64] - Glass market: High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream and weak demand limit the price increase. There are differences in opinions regarding potential supply cuts in the fourth quarter, so the glass price lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The short - term supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [89] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3136, 3205, and 3045 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3370, 3374, and 3398 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China increased from 3275 to 3284 yuan/ton [7] - The 01 - 05 and 05 - 10 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil remained unchanged from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [4] - **Ratios** - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore and 01, 05, and 09 coke remained at 4 and 2 respectively on September 15, 2025, unchanged from September 12 [16] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 796, 774.5, and 757 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 3.5, - 3, and - 59 yuan/ton respectively [20] - The 01, 05, and 09 basis values of iron ore on September 15, 2025, were - 5.5, 16.5, and - 22 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to September 12 and September 8 [20] - **Fundamentals** - As of September 12, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.55 tons, with a weekly increase of 11.71 tons and a monthly decrease of 0.11 tons [26] - The 45 - port iron ore inventory on September 12, 2025, was 13849.47 tons, with a weekly increase of 24.15 tons and a monthly increase of 30.2 tons [26] Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads were 143.5, - 46.5, and - 97 respectively, with significant changes compared to September 12 [36] - The coke 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads also showed large fluctuations from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had various changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the coking coal price of Australian Peak Downs increased by 3 yuan/ton [36] - The import profits of coking coal from different countries also changed, with the Russian K10 import profit increasing by 67 yuan/ton from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [38] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On September 15, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 18 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 40 yuan/ton [50] - The silicon - iron 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 108, 280, and - 172 respectively, with some weekly changes [50] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on September 15, 2025, was 124 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [53] - The silicon - manganese 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads also had significant changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [53] Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1383, 1412, and 1308 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 15, 249, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [65] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 234 yuan/ton [65] - **Spot Prices** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on September 15, 2025, compared to September 12, with only a few regions having small changes [68] Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the glass 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1308, 1354, and 1207 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 24, 386, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [90] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 362 yuan/ton [90] - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations from September 6 to September 12, 2025. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in the Shahe region was 73 on September 12 [91]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector has shown a 2.45% increase in the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices by 1.07% and 0.33%, respectively [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand changes and anticipates a recovery in the construction materials market due to government policies aimed at boosting consumption [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The cement market price is currently at 344.0 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.3 CNY/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 40.7 CNY/ton [3][18] - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 65.0%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [23] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals 2.1 Cement - The cement market is experiencing weak demand, but prices are expected to trend upwards due to companies' efforts to improve profitability [10] - The industry is expected to maintain a better profit level compared to last year, supported by a consensus on supply discipline among leading companies [10] 2.2 Glass - The glass market is currently facing a stalemate with high inventory levels and weak demand, but supply-side adjustments are anticipated to continue [13] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Qibin Group, which may benefit from industry capacity reductions [13] 2.3 Glass Fiber - The report suggests that the profitability of glass fiber products is expected to improve in the medium term, with a focus on high-end products [11] - The industry is seeing a gradual reduction in supply pressure, which may stabilize prices [11] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the government's commitment to boosting domestic demand and consumption, which is expected to positively impact the construction materials sector [14] - The anticipated recovery in the housing market, driven by government policies, is expected to enhance demand for home improvement materials [14] 4. Weekly Market Review - The construction materials sector has shown resilience, with key companies expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and market recovery [5] - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including Conch Cement, China National Building Material, and others [5][15]

Industrial Production - China's industrial production shows marginal stabilization with daily average pig iron output and cement clinker capacity utilization rates increasing[2] - The operating rates for asphalt and most chemical products have rebounded, while only steel and construction materials show slight adjustments in output and apparent demand[2] - The textile and polyester operating rates have seasonally increased, along with the operating rates for both radial and bias tires[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 7.2% year-on-year as of September 12, with a 5.7 percentage point increase from the previous week[2] - The new home sales area in these cities has shown a 9.8% year-on-year growth since September, reversing from negative growth last month[2] - The listing price index for second-hand homes decreased by 0.59% month-on-month as of September 1[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue continues to outperform last year's figures, with a 41.0% year-on-year increase in daily average revenue of 51.14 million yuan as of September 12[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 3.9% year-on-year, with a 4.5 percentage point increase from the previous week[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries grew by 11.0% year-on-year, although this was a slight decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous week[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 10.5% year-on-year as of September 7[2] - The export container freight rate index decreased by 2.1% week-on-week, with Shanghai and Ningbo's export container rates also declining[2] - South Korea's export value increased by 3.8% year-on-year in the first ten days of September, a 2.5 percentage point increase from August[2] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index fell by 0.5%, while the Nanhua Black Materials Index and Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Index rose by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively[2] - Rebar futures closed down by 0.5%, with spot prices also decreasing by 0.4%[2] - Coking coal futures dropped by 1.2%, and Shanxi coking coal spot prices fell by 1.4%[2]

Group 1: Glass Futures Market Overview - The glass futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 1178.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1214.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.89% [1] - The overall market sentiment is positive due to improved fundamentals, with sales in Hubei recovering and processing plants in North China resuming operations [1] - The market is expected to remain volatile within the range of 1150 to 1200 CNY, influenced by supply-side production halts and seasonal demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Glass production remains stable with little week-on-week change, while demand growth is limited despite entering the peak season [1] - The overall supply-demand balance is loose, with policy sentiment fluctuating, leading to expectations of short-term price oscillations [1] - Companies are facing pressure on supply due to new production lines coming online, with daily melting capacity slightly increasing to 160,000 tons [2] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - Corporate inventory has shifted from increasing to decreasing, with spot prices remaining stable to slightly strong [2] - The real estate sector is experiencing a widening decline in completed area, contributing to weak terminal demand [2] - The market strategy suggests a cautious approach, with increased volatility at lower price levels and a focus on observing market trends [2]