中国钢铁工业协会披露，当前冶金行业智能装备渗透率不足10%，此次国产化突破或加速行业技术迭代。中国耐 火材料行业协会会长薄钧预计，未来五年，冶金施工机器人市场规模将突破百亿（元），智能化改造或推动行业 能耗降低15%—20%。 冶金耐火材料施工仍存诸多痛点 根据中研普华产业研究院发布的数据，截至2022年，中国冶金行业总市场规模达到了13.34万亿元，同比上年增长 了5.03%。预计未来几年，随着全球经济的逐渐复苏和新兴市场的崛起，冶金行业市场规模将继续保持增长态 势。 另据《2024至2030年中国冶金工程行业市场预测与投资规划分析报告》分析，2024—2030年间，中国冶金工程行 业总规模将以年均6.5%的复合增长率持续增长，到2030年将突破8700亿元。 需要注意的是，冶金行业在规模不断增长的同时，也面临着"高温、高尘、效率瓶颈、绿色转型"等多重挑战，尤 其在高温环境下冶金耐火材料施工、精细化运维等环节存在诸多痛点。 例如，作为连铸系统中钢水成材前与耐火材料接触的最后一个容器，"中间包"是连铸工艺的重要部分，对钢的质 量有很大影响。 据中国耐火材料行业协会会长薄钧介绍，耐火材料是钢铁安全生产高效运行的 ...

中原证券近日发布机械行业月报：受对等关税等因素影响，4月市场出现大幅震荡，科 技成长等概念板块出现明显的回调，4月份工程机械、矿山冶金机械、油气设备、高铁设备 等板块表现较好。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 行业观点与投资建议 受对等关税等因素影响，4月市场出现大幅震荡，科技成长等概念板块出现明显的回 调，4月份工程机械、矿山冶金机械、油气设备、高铁设备等板块表现较好。 我们建议继续关注基本面向好，盈利稳定，分红和股息率较高的传统工程机械（重点推 荐三一重工、徐工机械等）、高铁设备（重点推荐思维列控等）、矿山冶金设备龙头（重点 推荐中信重工、郑煤机、一拖股份等）。主题投资方面建议继续聚焦人形机器人本体及核心 零部件龙头（重点推荐埃斯顿、绿的谐波等）。其他建议关注136号文对风电、光伏行业带 来的抢装行情，重点推荐风电轴承龙头新强联。 风险提示：1）宏观经济发展不及预期；2）下游行业需求、出口需求不及预期；3）原 材料价格上涨持续；4）新能源产业政策、行业形势发生变化；5）国产替代、技术迭代、国 内设备更新进度不及预期。(中原证券 刘智） 【责任编辑：杨梓安 】 4月中信机械板块下跌6.33%，跑输沪深30 ...

Economic Overview - In 2021, China's GDP reached 114.4 trillion yuan, growing by 8.1% year-on-year, equivalent to approximately 17.7 trillion USD, accounting for over 18% of the global economy, solidifying its position as the second-largest economy in the world [1] - The historical context highlights that during the Song Dynasty, China accounted for 60% of the world's GDP, and even during the Qing Dynasty, it held 35% before being surpassed by Western countries due to the Industrial Revolution [1] Historical Context - The establishment of a unified state in China began with the Qin Dynasty, followed by the Han Dynasty, which defined the Chinese nation. Population growth was significant during stable periods, with the Han population increasing from 18 million to 60 million in about 200 years [3] - The Ming Dynasty saw a population increase from under 60 million to over 200 million by the early 17th century, while the Qing Dynasty's population grew from 120 million to over 430 million by the 19th century due to stable agricultural conditions [3] European Context - In contrast, Europe was fragmented into numerous feudal states post-1453, leading to frequent wars and a smaller population due to the instability of the "Dark Ages" [5] - The rise of the Ottoman Empire disrupted trade routes, increasing costs for Western nations, which relied heavily on trade with China for resources [5] Industrial Revolution - The search for new trade routes led to the Age of Exploration, with European nations seeking maritime paths to Asia, culminating in the discovery of the Americas by Columbus in 1492 [7] - The need for labor to process the vast resources from colonies prompted European countries to innovate and develop machinery, marking the beginning of the Industrial Revolution [7][10] - By the late 18th century, the introduction of the spinning jenny and the steam engine revolutionized production, leading to the mechanization of the textile industry in Britain [10][12] - The transition from hand production to machine-based manufacturing in the cotton industry was largely completed by 1830, establishing Britain as the first industrialized nation [14] Conclusion - The Industrial Revolution represented a significant leap in productivity and wealth creation, enabling Britain to become a dominant global power, often referred to as the "empire on which the sun never sets" [14] - The conditions that led to the Industrial Revolution were unique to Britain, as other nations lacked the necessary preconditions to replicate this transformation [14]

耗尽潜力的经济 据乌克兰国家银行的数据，去年乌克兰经济虽有增长，但增速明显低于此前预期：仅增长2.9%而非预期的4%。乌克兰国家银行称增长放缓的原因是安全 形势恶化、电力短缺以及粮食产量低下等。去年第四季度，因农业产出大幅下降（同比减少30.3%），乌克兰的国内生产总值（GDP）下滑了0.1%。 今年伊始，乌克兰经济的负面趋势愈演愈烈。2025年前两个月，乌克兰的GDP仅增长1.1%，不到去年同期的三分之一。与此同时，乌克兰的通胀率不断 攀升。乌克兰国家银行近期发布的通胀报告显示，2月CPI指数已升至13.4%。CPI高企的主要原因是年干旱导致粮食产量低以及企业生产成本高企（与提 高工资和能源价格上涨有关），导致未加工和加工食品价格大幅上涨。某些农产品生产的形势已经非常严峻，去年底，乌克兰有好几家大型油脂加工厂因 原料短缺而停产。 当局目前还未公布2025年3月的CPI数据，但物价仍在持续上涨已经是确定的事实。特别是鸡蛋价格预计还将上涨一波，面包和蔬菜价格也在上升。生产 者价格通胀（即出厂价格，最终会反映到消费市场）更是创下纪录，2025年3月其增速同比高达37%。原因是电力和天然气价格上涨65%，输气费也有 ...

Core Insights - The industrial economy in Heilongjiang Province is showing signs of recovery, with a total industrial added value growth rate of 5.3% in the first quarter, accelerating by 7.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The growth rate of industrial added value for large-scale industries reached 6.1%, exceeding the initial target by 2.6 percentage points [1] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March was reported at 50.5, indicating a positive production outlook [1] Industrial Performance - The mining sector's added value growth rate was 6.3%, slightly above the national average by 0.1 percentage points [2] - The manufacturing sector's added value growth rate was 6.2%, marginally higher than the provincial large-scale industrial growth rate by 0.1 percentage points [2] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sector recorded a growth rate of 5.4%, surpassing the national average by 3.5 percentage points [2] Sectoral Highlights - The equipment manufacturing industry experienced the fastest growth at 18.9%, exceeding the national average by 8 percentage points [2] - The energy sector showed significant support with a growth rate of 5.9%, particularly in coal mining and washing, which reached 10.1% [2] - The construction materials industry also performed well, achieving a growth rate of 31.5% [2] Future Outlook - The Heilongjiang Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology plans to focus on stabilizing industrial growth, transforming methods, adjusting structures, improving quality, and increasing efficiency [2] - Emphasis will be placed on key regions, industries, projects, market expansion, and providing better services to enterprises [2]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 2025年3月，工企营收累计同比3.4%、前值2.8%；利润累计同比0.8%、前值-0.3%。3月末，产成 品存货同比4.2%、前值4.2%。 核心观点：利润回升主要源于营收改善，而成本压力等中期约束仍在。 3月利润增速回升主要源于营收改善，其他损益、费用等短期指标也有贡献；而成本压力等中期约束有所 增大。 3月，工业利润当月同比回升2.8pct至2.5%。拆分结构看，利润回升主要源于营收改善，实际营收 支撑利润同比上行6.2%。利润率的贡献主要体现在费用、其他损益（投资收益、营业税金及附加等杂项 支出）等短期指标回升，带动利润同比上行3.8%、0.3%。相比之下，成本对利润仍然构成较大约束，拖 累整体利润下行5.9%。 3月，营收增速回升较大的是煤炭冶金链与下游消费行业，主要受益于基建提速及以旧换新政策拉动。 分结构看，3月基建提速支撑冶金产业链实际营收改善幅度较大，当月同比较前月回升2.5pct至6 ...

作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 2025年3月，工企营收累计同比3.4%、前值2.8%；利润累计同比0.8%、前值-0.3%。3月末，产成 品存货同比4.2%、前值4.2%。 核心观点：利润回升主要源于营收改善，而成本压力等中期约束仍在。 3月利润增速回升主要源于营收改善，其他损益、费用等短期指标也有贡献；而成本压力等中期约束有所 增大。 3月，工业利润当月同比回升2.8pct至2.5%。拆分结构看，利润回升主要源于营收改善，实际营收 支撑利润同比上行6.2%。利润率的贡献主要体现在费用、其他损益（投资收益、营业税金及附加等杂项 支出）等短期指标回升，带动利润同比上行3.8%、0.3%。相比之下，成本对利润仍然构成较大约束，拖 累整体利润下行5.9%。 3月，营收增速回升较大的是煤炭冶金链与下游消费行业，主要受益于基建提速及以旧换新政策拉动。 分结构看，3月基建提速支撑冶金产业链实际营收改善幅度较大，当月同比较前月回升2.5pct至6.3%；以 旧换新政策带动国内商品消费积极改善，也对消费制造业营收有拉动，行业实际营收增速同比边际上行 ...

宏 观 研 究 工企数据 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 (8621)23297818× tuqiang@swsresearch.com 2025 年 04 月 27 日 利润正增能否延续？ ——工业企业效益数据点评（25.03） 国 内 经 济 事件： 2025 年 3 月，工企营收累计同比 3.4%、前值 2.8%；利润累计同比 0.8%、前值 -0.3%。3 月末，产成品存货同比 4.2%、前值 4.2%。 ⚫ 核心观点：利润回升主要源于营收改善，而成本压力等中期约束仍在。 3 月利润增速回升主要源于营收改善，其他损益、费用等短期指标也有贡献；而成本压力 等中期约束有所增大。3 月，工业利润当月同比回升 2.8pct 至 2.5%。拆分结构看，利润 回升主要源于营收改善，实际营收支撑利润同比上行 6.2%。利润率的贡献主要体现在费 用、其他损益（投资收 ...

Group 1 - The company is a leading player in the metallurgical engineering sector, holding approximately 90% of the Chinese market share and nearly 60% of the global market share as of 2022 [1] - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation from traditional metallurgical engineering to infrastructure and emerging markets, with a projected revenue of 552 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 12.9%, and a net profit of 6.75 billion yuan, down 22.2% [1] - The low-carbon transition in the metallurgical industry presents development opportunities, with the company actively expanding its non-steel engineering business and leveraging its technological advantages in low-carbon equipment [1] Group 2 - The company is recognized as a key resource enterprise in China, with substantial mineral reserves including 1,795,000 tons of copper, 184,200 tons of nickel, 64,290 tons of zinc, 32,110 tons of lead, and 20,900 tons of cobalt as of the end of 2024 [2] - The demand for the company's metal products, such as copper, nickel, and cobalt, is strong due to the steady growth of downstream industries like electricity and new energy, which is expected to enhance the profitability of its resource segment [2] - The company has two pending production mines with a copper reserve of 1,614,000 tons, which are anticipated to contribute significantly to performance once operational [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology has initiated the cultivation and recognition of manufacturing innovation centers, focusing on traditional, emerging, and future industries in the province [1] Group 1: Traditional Industries - The initiative emphasizes traditional industries such as metallurgy, chemicals, light industry, building materials, textiles and apparel, and machinery [1] - The goal is to encourage leading enterprises to take the lead in creating provincial manufacturing innovation centers [1] Group 2: Advantageous Industries - Key advantageous industries targeted include high-end chemicals, automotive, smart home appliances, industrial mother machines, rail transportation, marine engineering equipment, agricultural machinery, high-end aluminum materials, and modern food [1] Group 3: Emerging Industries - The focus also extends to emerging industries such as next-generation information technology, high-end equipment, new energy materials, modern medicine, green environmental protection, new energy vehicles, low-altitude economy, safety emergency equipment, and magnetic levitation [1] Group 4: Future Industries - Future industries highlighted in the initiative include the metaverse, artificial intelligence, life sciences, future networks, quantum technology, humanoid robots, and deep-sea and aerospace technologies [1]