Core Viewpoint - Since late December, the PP market in South China has shown relative strength due to tight spot resource circulation and stable demand, with expectations of rising upstream raw material prices driven by geopolitical fluctuations [2][10][14] Group 1: Market Performance - The PP market in South China has experienced a slight rebound since late December, primarily due to the continuous inventory control by upstream enterprises, resulting in no significant pressure on spot supply [2][10] - As of January 4, 2026, the average price of PP in South China was 6265 yuan/ton, an increase of 40-60 yuan/ton compared to mid-December [2][10] - The market is expected to maintain a warm operating trend in the short term, although the support from supply and demand fundamentals may weaken in the latter half of the month [6][14] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The South China region has seen several facilities, including Huizhou Litop and Guangzhou Petrochemical, undergoing maintenance, leading to a relatively high level of repair loss [4][12] - The weekly production in South China for the week of December 26 to January 1 was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 2.03% compared to the previous week [4][12] - Despite the tight supply of spot resources, downstream factories are primarily maintaining low-level demand without significant replenishment intentions, which limits the upward price movement of the PP market [4][12] Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical disturbances, particularly restrictions on oil exports from certain Latin American countries, have significantly impacted crude oil prices, leading to expectations of cost increases that support PP prices [4][12] - The market price has seen a slight increase of 10-40 yuan/ton due to these cost expectations, although downstream buyers remain cautious and are primarily making minimal purchases based on immediate needs [4][12]

Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated January 5, 2026, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today, with both facing an oversupply situation, neutral industry inventories, and weak downstream demand [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after 8 months. OPEC+ decided to maintain the November 2025 production plan and suspend production increases in February and March 2026. The US military's actions in Venezuela are expected to have limited impact on domestic crude oil and chemical products. The demand for agricultural films is continuously weak, and packaging film enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6350 (+10), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -122, with a premium - discount ratio of -1.9%, indicating a bearish outlook [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 39.8 million tons (-9.3), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, indicating a bullish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, with an oversupply situation in the fundamentals, neutral industry inventory, and weak downstream demand [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in the macro - aspect. The PDH maintenance rate has started to increase. The demand for plastic woven products is mainly based on rigid demand, and the demand for pipes has generally declined. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6270 (+20), with overall neutral fundamentals [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -78, with a premium - discount ratio of -1.2%, indicating a bearish outlook [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 49.1 million tons (-4.3), which is neutral [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish trend [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to rebound and be volatile today, with an oversupply situation in the fundamentals, neutral industry inventory, weak downstream demand, and an increasing PDH maintenance rate [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4319.5 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, and the import dependence has decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4906 [16]

累库进程放缓， PVC跟随情绪大幅反弹 PVC月报 2026/01/04 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 从业资格号：F03136381 徐绍祖（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2325元/吨，月同比下跌150元/吨；山东电石价格报2780元/吨，月同比下跌50元/吨；兰炭陕西中料820元/吨， 月同比下跌50元/吨。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润下滑至历史低位水平后有所修复，乙烯制利润回升，整体估值压力较小。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率77.2%，月同比下降3%；其中电石法78.5%，月同比下降5.1%；乙烯法74.3%，月同比上升1.9%。上月检修量上升，平均 产能利用率小幅下滑，供应压力有所减小。 ◆ 需求：出口方面，十一月出口量延续下滑，主要因为出口印度数量季节性下滑；三大下游开工季节性下滑，管材负荷36.2%，月同比下降 2.6 ...

2025年12月31日，印度商工部发布公告称，应印度国内企业Gujarat Polyfilms Private Limited提交的申 请，对原产于或进口自中国和俄罗斯的相对粘度低于3的尼龙6切片及颗粒（Nylon 6 Chips and Granules with relative viscosity(RV) below 3）发起反倾销调查。本案涉及印度海关编码3908 10 11项下的产品以及 3908 10 19、3908 10 21、3908 10 39、3908 10 41、3908 10 49、3908 10 79和3908 90 00项下的部分产 品。此次调查产品不包括粉末状尼龙6。本案倾销调查期为2024年7月1日至2025年6月30日（12个月）， 损害调查期为2021年4月1日至2022年3月31日、2022年4月1日至2023年3月31日、2023年4月1日至2024年 6月30日及2024年7月1日至2025年6月30日。 （赵广霞编译） （文 璐校对） 原文：https://egazette.gov.in/WriteReadData/2025/269083.pdf 利益相关方应于立案 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin industry will face continuous capacity pressure in 2026, with a pattern of "low in the first half and high in the second half" for capacity commissioning. The overall price is expected to be weak, with a "high in the first half and low in the second half" rhythm [4][5]. - The key factors affecting the market include capacity commissioning progress, plant operating rates, and imports and exports [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price, Basis, and Calendar Spread**: In 2025, polyolefin prices showed different trends in each quarter. The first - quarter was relatively stable, the second - quarter was affected by macro - events and showed wide - range fluctuations, the third - quarter was in a state of oscillation, and the fourth - quarter experienced a significant decline. The basis and calendar spreads of PP and L also had corresponding changes, mainly affected by factors such as capacity commissioning, demand, and trade conflicts [3][9][10]. - **Disk Spread Review**: The L - PP spread showed a trend of first declining and then recovering. The core reason was the different supply pressures of PP and the demand performance of L [34]. - **Disk Profit**: The methanol price showed a downward trend, and the MTO disk profit first improved and then deteriorated. The production profit of polyolefins was generally better than that of the previous year, but the PE profit weakened significantly at the end of the year [42][95]. 3.2 Capacity Commissioning is the Main Theme - **Domestic Capacity Commissioning**: Both PP and PE are in the capacity commissioning cycle. From 2026 - 2030, the planned new capacity of PP will exceed 20 million tons, and that of PE will exceed 20 million tons. The commissioning rhythm in 2026 is "low in the first half and high in the second half" [64][86]. - **Foreign Capacity Commissioning**: In 2025, the overseas capacity commissioning of PE was about 2.5 million tons, and there are many commissioning plans in 2026, but the actual implementation may fall short of expectations. The overseas capacity commissioning pressure of PP is relatively small [84][87]. - **Production - end Profit**: The cost side was differentiated, and the production profit was generally better than that of the previous year, especially for the coal - based production. However, the PE profit weakened significantly at the end of the year [95]. - **Output Surge**: In 2025, the output of both PP and PE increased significantly. The expected annual output of PP is 40.3053 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.96%. The expected annual output of PE is 33.1308 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.69% [138][141]. - **Imports and Exports**: For PP, the import and export pattern reversed in 2025, with a significant decrease in net imports. For PE, the import pressure remained high, and the import volume was still large [145][164]. 3.3 Demand Side - **PP Demand**: The demand for PP was high in the first half and low in the second half. After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered rapidly, but from the second quarter, the demand gradually weakened, mainly affected by export shocks and the slowdown of domestic economic demand [185]. - **PE Demand**: The demand for PE was relatively rigid, with obvious seasonality. The demand was strong during the peak seasons of mulch film and greenhouse film, but faced pressure during the off - seasons [193]. 3.4 Inventory - **PP Inventory**: The PP inventory remained at a high level throughout the year. After the Spring Festival, the inventory increased seasonally, and then decreased during the peak demand season in March. From the second quarter, the inventory basically remained at a high level in previous years [213]. - **PE Inventory**: At the end of 2024, the LLDPE inventory was low. After the Spring Festival, the inventory was tight due to the peak demand season of agricultural films, and then gradually eased [225]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **PP Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2026, the supply growth rate of PP will slow down, but the demand still needs to reach a high level to achieve supply - demand balance. The supply - demand pressure is still large, and the pressure in the first half of the year is less than that in the second half [237][240]. - **PE Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2026, both the supply and demand of PE will slow down, and the inventory accumulation pattern will continue. Attention should be paid to the commissioning rhythm and the realization of peak demand seasons. The demand for PE is more resilient than that for PP [249][250].

冠通期货-聚烯烃2026年报 --产能投放周期仍未结束，关注成本压力下的开工 研究咨询部 苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 时间：2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 1 2025年聚烯烃（塑料和PP）整体呈现偏弱震荡走势，刷新2021年以来的低点，塑料加权跌幅22%，PP加权跌幅16%。年初，万华化学 等多套新增产能量产，季节性检修力度也不大，春节后，下游逐渐复工，但不及往年同期水平，特朗普的全球贸易战，更是引发对 于聚烯烃需求的担忧，加之原油价格下跌，聚烯烃期价持续下跌。聚烯烃进入检修旺季，叠加反内卷情绪下，市场得到提振，只是 聚烯烃行业自身并未有反内卷政策限制供应，聚烯烃在6-8月窄幅震荡。进入9月，下游需求金九银十旺季表现不及预期，市场未有 大规模的备货，加上新增产能的持续投放，石化库存偏高，原油、煤炭价格的疲软也在成本端施压，化工品情绪受挫，聚烯烃期价 持续下跌。 展望2026年，聚烯烃下游延续备货谨慎，呈季节性波动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The destocking of polyolefins is insufficient, and there is significant upward pressure. The downstream has entered the off - season, with overall开工 declining. Although the cost of crude oil has rebounded slightly, the profit of oil - based olefins has been compressed. The supply pressure is large, and the destocking is insufficient. The fundamentals remain in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly, with support at 6300, the PP main contract will fluctuate within a range, with support at 6200, and the LP spread is expected to narrow [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Plastic 3.1. Weekly Market Review - On December 26, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6465 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The average price of LDPE was 8466.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%. The average price of HDPE was 6800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.03%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6480.56 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 15.56 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 94.54%. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 76 yuan/ton (- 28) [12]. 3.2. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 26 was - 76 yuan/ton (- 28), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 31 yuan/ton (+16), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 107 yuan/ton (+12) [17]. - **Spot Price**: The report provides detailed spot prices and price changes of various plastic products in different regions [19][20]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.93 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.03 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.37 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.66 US dollars/barrel from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 389 yuan/ton from last week. The profit of coal - based PE was - 207 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - **Supply**: This week, the production start - up rate of polyethylene in China was 82.64%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 67.22 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09%. The maintenance loss this week was 11.09 tons, an increase of 2.41 tons from last week [30]. - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 493 tons of production capacity has been put into operation or is about to be put into operation [33]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises have HDPE, LDPE and other device maintenance, and some of the start - up times are uncertain [34]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural films was 43.86%, a decrease of 1.32% from last week. The start - up rate of PE packaging films was 48.22%, a decrease of 0.74% from last weekend. The start - up rate of PE pipes was 30.67%, a decrease of 0.33% from last weekend [36]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films is the highest, accounting for 36.2%, with a difference of 0.6% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 7.7%, with a difference of 0.9% from the annual average level [39]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 47.15 tons, an increase of 0.28 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.60% [42]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11265 lots, a decrease of 67 lots from last week [46]. PP 3.3. Weekly Market Review - On December 26, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6292 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan/ton from last weekend, a month - on - month increase of 1.27% [50]. 3.4. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The report provides the prices and price changes of PP - related products and some downstream products [52][54]. - **Basis**: On December 26, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6153.33 yuan/ton (- 1.60%). The PP basis closed at - 139 yuan/ton (- 179), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 114 yuan/ton (- 33) [56]. - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 26 was - 114 yuan/ton (- 33), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 25 yuan/ton (+2), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 139 yuan/ton (+31) [61]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.93 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.03 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.37 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.66 US dollars/barrel from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [66]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 632.49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.41 yuan/ton from last weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was - 582.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.44 yuan/ton from last weekend [71]. - **Supply**: This week, the start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.87%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 79.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.79 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [74]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises have PP production line maintenance, and some of the start - up times are uncertain [77]. - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream start - up rate was 53.24% (- 0.56). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 43.74% (- 0.26%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 63.24% (unchanged), the start - up rate of injection molding was 58.36% (- 0.14%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 39.73% (- 2.34%) [79]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 318.03 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.63 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The export profit was - 1.18 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.26 US dollars/ton compared with last week [84]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 53.33 tons (- 0.84%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 1.02% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 5.60% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 1.78% month - on - month [87]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14905 lots, an increase of 3971 lots from last week [95].

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) is promoting the application of innovative risk management tools, particularly focusing on monthly average futures and options to enhance the effectiveness of the futures market in serving the real economy [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - A seminar on monthly average futures and commodity options was held in Guangzhou, organized by DCE and Jin Yuan Futures, with participation from 22 representatives of plastic chemical industry associations and companies in South China [1]. - DCE personnel presented the design principles, application scenarios, and market performance of linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and polypropylene monthly average futures, along with an explanation of commodity options business rules [1]. Group 2: Industry Feedback - Representatives acknowledged the monthly average futures from DCE, noting that large enterprises in the PVC industry use monthly averages as a reference for key performance indicators (KPIs), alleviating pricing pressure for traders and enhancing sales flexibility [2]. - The increasing competition in the PVC export market has led to profit compression for traders; the application of monthly averages in international trade can stabilize pricing and mitigate harmful price competition, promoting healthy industry development [2]. Group 3: Options Tool Application - Companies participating in the options market view options as a crucial supplement to futures, significantly enhancing risk management capabilities [2]. - A manager shared experiences on using PVC options for inventory hedging and profit enhancement, highlighting the unique advantages of options in risk control [2]. Group 4: Future Directions - DCE plans to optimize contract rules, enhance the cultivation of the monthly average futures market, and enrich the supply of options tools to better serve the South China market [3]. - The exchange aims to improve the ability of industry enterprises to apply derivative tools, assisting in cost reduction and efficiency enhancement for high-quality development of the chemical industry in South China [3].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PVC周报 供给端扰动 市场情绪偏暖 20251228 黄桂仁 0769-22112875 从业资格号：F3032275 交易咨询号：Z0014527 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 产业链结构 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 供应：上周PVC上游开工率77.23%，环比降低0.15个百分点，同比降低3.4个百分点，处在同期中性位。主要是部分 装置检修降负荷影响，但总体供应仍在高位。2026年几乎没有新增产能，供应扩张 ...

这是(15221859327)整理的信息，希望能帮助到大家 环境保护也是当前许多企业关心的话题。PC/ABS材料作为一种塑料，其生产和处理是否符合环保要求，越来越受 到关注。韩国LG化学在生产过程中注重环保措施，授权代理商也会遵循相关的环保规定，提供符合标准的产品。 用户在选择材料时，可以了解相关的环保信息，以便做出更符合自身价值观的决策。 最后，用户可能会关心与授权代理商合作的具体流程。通常，这包括需求沟通、材料选择、价格协商、签订合 同、交付付款等环节。授权代理商会尽力使整个过程顺畅透明，为用户提供清晰的指引和支持。 另一个常见的问题是，PC/ABS材料具体有哪些特点？首先，这种材料通常具有较高的强度，能够承受一定的外力 作用；其次，它具备较好的耐热性，适用于温度变化较大的环境；此外，PC/ABS还拥有良好的加工性能，可以通 过注塑等常见工艺成型。这些特性使得它在电子电器、汽车零部件等领域得到应用。 关于材料的选择，用户可能还会疑惑如何根据自身需求挑选合适的规格。不同型号的PC/ABS可能在性能上有所侧 重，例如某些型号更注重抗冲击性，而另一些则可能在耐候性方面表现更突出。授权代理商通常会提供详细的技 术 ...