Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyolefin industry is neutral on a single - side basis [2][12] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the growth rate of polyolefin capacity expansion will slow down, especially in the first half of the year when there will be a new - production vacuum period. The first half of the year will focus on digesting the existing high inventory of polyolefins. However, the demand support before the Spring Festival is weak, and the inventory is expected to remain at a high level. It is recommended to maintain the reverse spread strategy for the 01 - 05 month inter - period spread. In March, as the "Golden March" peak season, polyolefin demand may seasonally recover, and the inventory is expected to start the destocking process. The annual strategy recommends the positive spread strategy for L05 - 09 and PP05 - 09 inter - period spreads. In 2026, the new PE production will mainly be non - standard HDPE, and the proportion of standard linear production is relatively low. It is recommended to short non - standard products and long standard linear products to narrow the non - standard price spread [2][12] Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data - **New production**: In 2026, the total new PE capacity will be 4.74 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 11.9%, which is slower than in 2025. Most of the new production will be concentrated in the second half of the year, and only BASF's 500,000 - ton FDPE device will be put into production in the first half. For PP, the new capacity in 2026 will be 4.4 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 8.8%, significantly slower than in 2025, and the new production will mainly be concentrated in Q3 - Q4 [7] - **Inventory**: After the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the polyolefin inventory has not been effectively destocked and remains at a high level. In 2026, especially in the first half of the year, the focus will be on digesting the existing high inventory. But before the Spring Festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to remain high until March [7] Market Analysis - **Production in 2025**: From January to October 2025, the total domestic polyethylene production was 26.195 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The total domestic polypropylene production was 31.86 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11%, with the cumulative year - on - year increase in drawn wire production being 8% [8] - **Demand in 2025**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product output was 0.5%, with the main growth coming from industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 1.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of primary - shaped plastic import volume was - 7.6%. The downstream demand for PE and PP is generally weak [9] Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - **PE market**: The plastic main contract shows the trend of the main contract, basis, and inter - period spread from 2023 to 2025 [19] - **PP market**: The domestic polypropylene market in 2025 showed a trend of continuous decline followed by low - level oscillation. It can be divided into three stages: the decline stage from January to May, the short - term support stage from June to August, and the low - level oscillation stage from September to the end of the year [22][23] Polyolefin Capacity Expansion - **2026 China's polyolefin production rhythm**: The production rhythm of polyolefins in China will slow down in 2026, especially in the first half of the year. The new PE capacity in 2026 is 4.74 million tons per year, and the new PP capacity is 4.4 million tons per year [27][33] - **2025 overseas polyolefin production**: In 2025, the total overseas new polyethylene capacity was 2.382 million tons, and there was an expected 1.85 - million - ton PP capacity expansion, with 600,000 tons in India already realized [35][38] Polyolefin Maintenance - **PE maintenance by process**: In 2025, the overall PE device maintenance volume remained high. Oil - based and alkane - based maintenance volumes were relatively large, while coal - based maintenance volume was similar to the same period [41] - **PP maintenance by process**: In 2025, the PP device maintenance volume continued to be high. Oil - based and PDH - based maintenance volumes were higher than the same period, while coal - based maintenance volume changed little [44] - **Polyolefin operating rate forecast**: The PE operating rate is expected to recover, and the PP operating rate is also expected to increase, but attention should be paid to the raw material supply and profit of PDH devices [53] Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export - **Domestic polyolefin production**: In 2025, the monthly PE output exceeded 2.6 million tons, and from January to October, the total production was 26.195 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The total domestic polypropylene production from January to October was 31.86 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11% [63] - **Polyolefin production profit and operating rate**: In 2025, the polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by raw material prices, and the operating rate was generally low. The operating rate of alkane - based PE and PP devices was affected by Sino - US trade conflicts [68] - **Polyolefin non - standard price spread performance**: In 2025, the LLDPE operating rate increased significantly, and the non - standard price spread of PE is expected to narrow in 2026. The PP non - standard price spread showed a trend of narrowing and then rising [77] - **Polyolefin import - export situation**: From January to October 2025, China's cumulative polyethylene imports decreased by 3% year - on - year, and cumulative polypropylene imports decreased by 8% year - on - year. The PE external dependence is decreasing, and PP is gradually changing to an export - oriented product [95] - **Polyolefin domestic - foreign price spread**: In 2025, the LLDPE import window was mostly closed, and the export window was also closed. The PP import and export windows were mainly closed, but the Southeast Asian PP demand showed a slight recovery [103] Polyolefin Demand and Inventory - **Polyolefin downstream demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic plastic product demand increased slightly, but the external demand was weak. The downstream demand for PE and PP was generally insufficient, waiting for policy - driven stimulation [125] - **Polyolefin inventory**: In 2025, the polyolefin inventory remained high. In 2026, especially in the first half of the year, the focus will be on digesting the high inventory, and the inventory is expected to start destocking in March [155][157]

低估值下成本上涨， PVC迎来反弹 PVC周报 2025/11/29 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2475元/吨，周同比上涨50元/吨；山东电石价格报2830元/吨，周同比上涨25元/吨；兰炭陕西中料870元/吨，周 同比持平。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润持续下滑，乙烯制利润低位运行，目前估值中性偏低。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率80.2%，环比上升1.4%；其中电石法83.6%，环比上升2.3%；乙烯法72.4%，环比下降0.7%。上周供应端负荷小幅上升， 主因河南联创、陕西金泰负荷提升，下周预期负荷进一步回升。11月整体负荷预期仍然在高位，且有多套装置试车投产，供应压力较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面印度BIS认证政策撤销，另外反倾销税率市场预期不落地，因此年末出 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market shows an upward trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited due to factors such as high inventory, low downstream demand, and price decline of related products [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region of the upstream remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22% and is at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has slightly declined and is at a low level. India's cancellation of the BIS policy on PVC eases export concerns, but the price of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, in December has generally dropped by 30 - 60 dollars/ton. The social inventory has slightly increased and is still high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and new production capacities have been put into operation. Although the government's research on price competition gives a certain boost to bulk commodities, the upward space of PVC is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with the lowest price of 4525 yuan/ton, the highest price of 4562 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4549 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.07% and a decrease in the position volume of 73,842 lots to 1,118,577 lots [2]. - In terms of the basis, on November 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4445 yuan/ton, the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4489 yuan/ton, and the current basis was - 72 yuan/ton, weakening by 28 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The operating rates of devices such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai have increased. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into operation or are in low - load operation [1][4]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area, sales amount, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all showed year - on - year declines. As of the week of November 23, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.56% month - on - month but was still at the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 27, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% month - on - month to 1.0428 million tons, 23.44% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory was still high [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for polyolefins continues to be weak, and the downstream开工率 has declined month - on - month. The market is facing challenges due to the approaching demand off - season and the continuous release of supply from existing plants. The short - term upward driving force is insufficient, and the market may fluctuate weakly at the bottom [1][4]. - The supply and demand situation of PE and PP is complex. PE has supply pressure due to new capacity release and weakening demand, while PP has a weak supply - demand reality in the short term, with limited improvement from current maintenance on the supply - side surplus [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6699 yuan/ton (- 8), and that of the PP main contract is 6295 yuan/ton (+ 30). LL and PP have different price and basis changes in different regions [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE开工率 is 84.5% (+ 1.8%), and the PP开工率 is 78.1% (- 0.1%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 329.9 yuan/ton (- 49.2), PP oil - based production profit is - 460.1 yuan/ton (- 49.2), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 475.5 yuan/ton (- 37.9) [2]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is 51.8 yuan/ton (+ 42.8), PP import profit is - 199.8 yuan/ton (+ 32.8), and PP export profit is - 20.9 US dollars/ton (- 23.8) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film开工率 is 49.0% (- 0.9%), the PE downstream packaging film开工率 is 50.7% (- 0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 44.1% (- 0.1%), and the PP downstream BOPP film开工率 is 62.6% (+ 0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply pressure remains due to device overhauls and new capacity release, while the demand is entering the off - season, with high inventory - clearing pressure. The cost support from oil - based production is weak [3]. - **PP**: The supply - demand situation is weakly real in the short term, with the basis fluctuating at a low level. Temporary overhauls relieve some supply pressure, but the demand is insufficient, and the cost support from oil - based and PDH production is increasing [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The market may fluctuate weakly at the bottom due to the off - season demand and continuous supply release [4]. - **Inter - period**: Conduct high - level reverse arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 [4]. - **Inter - product**: No strategy is provided [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.83%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量34.578万吨，环比增加0.65%,乙烯法企业产 量13.466万吨，环比减少0.18%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.19%，环比减少0.35个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.3%，环比减少0.66个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.2%，环比减少0.39个百 分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

专题研究|研究报告 PVC 系列专题——进出口 2025 年 11 月 PVC 进出口基本面整理 PVC 进出口 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 张可心 从业资格证号：F03108011 随着国内 PVC 产业的发展以及产能的扩张，我国从 PVC 净进口国逐 渐摆脱进口依赖，成为全球 PVC 第一大生产国和出口国。2024 年我国 PVC 出口总量接近 300 万吨，占国内 PVC 产量比重约 12.8%。贸易对象方面 我国在进出口两方面都呈现出了一定的集中度，出口方面，我国近年对印 度、越南、孟加拉国等国家出口呈现显著增量。 2025 年，PVC 下游地产仍在下行周期，出口 PVC 需求端比重增加， 国内 PVC 价格中枢下行也增强了我国 PVC 生产企业出口竞争力。2025 年 1-10 月我国 PVC 累计出口 323,38 万吨，同比增量显著，+48.89%，占 国内 PVC1-10 月累计产量约 16%。 相关研究报告： 与此同时，2025 年我国 PVC 第一大出口国印度在 BIS 认证、反倾销 税政策上的动向对我国 PVC 出口及出口预期带来冲击，在未来出口受限 预期下，今年 PVC ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for polyolefins continues to be weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The market for both PE and PP is facing challenges in supply - demand balance and cost support [1][3]. - For PE, the supply pressure remains due to new capacity release and limited future planned maintenance, while the demand is entering the off - season, and the cost support from oil - based production is weakening [3]. - For PP, the weak supply - demand situation persists in the short - term. Although some short - term maintenance eases the supply pressure to some extent, the demand is also weakening, and the cost support from oil - based production is weakening while that from PDH is strengthening [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6707 yuan/ton (-55), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6265 yuan/ton (-52). The LL North China spot price is 6800 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot price is 6900 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP East China spot price is 6350 yuan/ton (-10). The LL North China basis is 93 yuan/ton (+55), the LL East China basis is 193 yuan/ton (+55), and the PP East China basis is 85 yuan/ton (+42) [2]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 82.7% (-0.4%), and PP operating rate is 78.3% (-1.3%). The PE oil - based production profit is 379.1 yuan/ton (+82.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 400.9 yuan/ton (+82.6), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 437.6 yuan/ton (-23.2) [2]. 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is 8.9 yuan/ton (+20.0), the PP import profit is - 232.6 yuan/ton (-0.9), and the PP export profit is 2.9 US dollars/ton (+0.1) [2]. 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 49.9% (-0.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.7% (-0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.2% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.0%) [2]. 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. 3.7 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see; in the short - term, with weak cost - side support, the futures market may show a weak bottom - side oscillating trend [4]. - Inter - period: For L01 - 05, conduct a reverse arbitrage at high prices; for PP01 - 05, conduct a reverse arbitrage at high prices [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4].

Report Overview - The report is a Polyolefin Morning Report dated November 26, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LLDPE and PP are expected to show a volatile trend today due to factors such as oversupply, weak downstream demand, and high - neutral industrial inventories [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month. After the China - US leaders' meeting, some restrictions were lifted. OPEC+ adjusted the oil market from undersupply to oversupply, causing oil prices to fall. Agricultural film demand declined, and other film demands were mainly for rigid needs. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6840, and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 78, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.2%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 554,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons, which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today due to oversupply, falling downstream demand, and high - neutral inventory [4] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the phased easing of China - US relations; bearish factors are weak demand compared to the same period and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5] PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the economic environment is affected by PMI decline and oil market adjustment. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current PP delivery spot price is 6380, and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 63, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 594,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons, which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today due to oversupply, average downstream demand, and high - neutral inventory [6] - **Likely Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors are new sanctions on Russian oil and China - US relations easing; bearish factors are weak demand compared to the same period and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15] Price and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6840, the price of the 01 contract is 6762, down 31. The basis is 78, and the warehouse receipt is 11,701, a decrease of 20. PE comprehensive factory inventory is 554,000 tons, and social inventory is 471,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons [8] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6380, the price of the 01 contract is 6317, down 55. The basis is 63, and the warehouse receipt is 15,668, a decrease of 65. PP comprehensive factory inventory is 594,000 tons, and social inventory is 321,000 tons [8]

11月25日盘中，PVC期货主力合约窄幅震荡，最高上探至4525.00元。截止收盘，PVC主力合约报 4491.00元，涨幅0.16%。 PVC期货主力小幅上涨0.16%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 冠通期货：近期PVC偏弱震荡 目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期 偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期，只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC 的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换 量，上周出口签单环比回升。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10 月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等 同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产 改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天 津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-21 下游开工逐步见顶回落 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6835元/吨（+2），PP主力合约收盘价为6400元/吨（-34），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6450元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-35元/吨（-22），LL 华东基差为115元/吨（-52）， PP华东基差为50元/吨（+34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.7%（-0.4%），PP开工率为78.3%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为382.4元/吨（+204.2），PP油制生产利润为-407.6元/吨（+204.2），PDH制PP生产 利润为-376.1元/吨（-21.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为84.4元/吨（+55.9），PP进口利润为-208.9元/吨（-31.3），PP出口利润为-5.4美元/吨（-1.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率 ...