Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The post - holiday inventory of major plastic producers has significantly accumulated, the cost support of crude oil for polyethylene has weakened, and new device production has increased supply pressure, driving the downward trend of polyolefins. The overall supply of PE and PP has increased significantly, while the downstream demand has fallen short of expectations, and the cost support has weakened, so the polyolefins continue to be weak [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,983 yuan/ton (-54), and that of the PP main contract is 6,693 yuan/ton (-29). The spot prices and basis of LL and PP in different regions have also changed [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 83.9% (+1.9%), and the PP operating rate is 77.7% (+1.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 542.8 yuan/ton (+157.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 127.2 yuan/ton (+157.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 99.0 yuan/ton (-270.1) [1] - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is 10.8 yuan/ton (+52.2), the PP import profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton (-73.5), and the PP export profit is 17.5 US dollars/ton (+9.1) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rates of PE downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film, and PP downstream industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP film have all increased to varying degrees [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers has significantly accumulated. The decline of crude oil has weakened the cost support for polyethylene, and new device production has increased supply pressure. The supply has increased significantly, while the downstream demand has fallen short of expectations, and the cost support has weakened [2] - **PP**: After the holiday, the decline of PP is obvious, mainly dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and the significant decline of propane prices. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has fallen short of expectations, and the cost support is weak [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - hedge L; PP fluctuates weakly [4] - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread L01 - L05; Reverse spread PP01 - PP05 [4] - **Inter - variety**: Shrink PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic LLDPE and PP markets generally showed a downward trend during the period from September 19 to October 14, 2025. Market sentiment was affected by factors such as futures trends, downstream demand, and cost support. Different factors had both positive and negative impacts on polyolefin investment, and corresponding trading strategies were proposed based on comprehensive analysis [1][8][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The L2601 contract price fluctuated, with a downward trend overall. LLDPE market prices in different regions showed partial declines, and market trading was weak, with end - users mainly making purchases based on rigid demand [1][8][11] - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP2601 contract price also declined. The domestic PP market continued its downward trend, with trade mainly focused on negotiation, and overall trading volume was difficult to increase due to limited downstream new orders and low profit margins [1][8][11] Important Information - On October 9, 2025, China imposed export controls on some rare earth items, aiming to fulfill non - proliferation obligations and maintain peace, with limited impact on the supply chain. The US announced a 100% tariff increase on China and an upgrade of software controls on October 10, which China strongly opposed [1][5] - From 2024 to 2029, the global plastic additives consumption is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%, which is related to the output growth of plastic end - consumption fields and changing policies and regulations [9] - On October 1, 2025, the US federal government shut down due to a budget negotiation breakdown, causing an estimated weekly economic loss of about $15 billion [11] - Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to achieve an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value and promote high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [14] - During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petroleum and chemical industry promoted quality improvement through various means, which helped the high - quality development of the industry [16] Logical Analysis - **Positive Factors**: In August 2025, the electricity consumption of the domestic rubber and plastics industry increased for three consecutive months to 17.69 billion kWh, with a year - on - year increase of +8.9%, which was positive for polyolefin unilateral trading. The ratio of the Baltic Dry Index to the Baltic Crude Oil Freight Index increased by +8.5% year - on - year, showing an eight - month marginal strengthening trend, which was also positive for polyolefin unilateral trading. The US manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 points in August 2025, accelerating for three consecutive months, which was positive for L unilateral trading [2][6][9] - **Negative Factors**: In August 2025, the profit per unit of the domestic rubber and plastics industry decreased by - 11.1% year - on - year, with a continuous decline for 18 months, which was negative for polyolefin unilateral trading. Brent crude oil prices increased to $67.6 per barrel in September 2025, with a year - on - year decrease of - 7.5% but a five - month marginal increase, which was negative for L. In August 2025, domestic PE production increased for two consecutive months to 2.827 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of +16.4% and an eight - month marginal increase, which was negative for the L - PP spread [2][6][15] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Different strategies were proposed for the L and PP main 01 contracts at different times, including trial shorting, holding short positions, holding long positions, and taking a wait - and - see approach, with corresponding stop - loss levels set [2][6][9] - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: For the L2601 - PP2601 spread, strategies included holding positions and waiting for opportunities to enter, with stop - loss levels set at the high points of specific periods [2][6][9] - **Options**: Generally, a wait - and - see approach was recommended [2][6][9]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪消退，盘面价格底部震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:宏观情绪消退，盘面价格底部震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | | | | 率在82.63%环比增加1.21%，同比增加3.60%；其中电石法在82.94%环比增加0.81%，同比增加3.70%，乙烯法在81.90%环比增加2.15%，同比增加3.46%； | | | | （3）本周PVC生产企业检修损失量在4.31万吨，较上期增加0.06万吨。本周检修较少，影戏产能利用 ...

聚烯烃周报 | 2025-10-12 聚烯烃节后大幅累库，价格承压偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7037元/吨（-40），PP主力合约收盘价为6722元/吨（-23），LL华北现货为7000 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7100元/吨（-10），PP华东现货为6670元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为-37元/吨（+40），LL 华东基差为73元/吨（+10）， PP华东基差为-42元/吨（-47）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为542.8元/吨（+157.6），PP油制生产利润为-127.2元/吨（+157.6），PDH制PP生产 利润为-99.0元/吨（-270.1）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为10.8元/吨（+52.2），PP进口利润为-547.8元/吨（-73.5），PP出口利润为17.5美元/吨（+9.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工 率为44.3%（+0.4%），PP下游B ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC industry is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The comprehensive profit of enterprises has declined to the lowest level this year, and the valuation pressure has decreased. However, the supply - side maintenance volume is small, and the output is at a historical high. With multiple new devices to be tested in the short term, domestic downstream demand is weak, and export expectations are poor in the fourth quarter. The medium - term supply - demand pattern is poor after the new device is put into production, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost - profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2890 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton year - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 730 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - month. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has dropped significantly from the high, while the profit of ethylene production has improved slightly, and the overall valuation support has strengthened [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 82.6%, up 5.5% year - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 82.9%, up 6.2% year - on - month; the ethylene method is 81.9%, up 3.8% year - on - month. The maintenance volume increased slightly last month, but new devices released production, and the supply pressure actually increased. This month, the maintenance intensity is expected to decrease, and two new devices are planned to be tested and put into production this year, so the supply pressure is expected to continue to rise [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the year - on - year growth rate of export volume in August was weaker than that in the first half of the year, and it was difficult to drive the destocking of domestic inventory. The Indian anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented from October to November, and the export growth rate is expected to decline further. The start - up of the three major downstream industries has rebounded slightly, but the overall downstream load is still weak in the real estate downturn cycle and difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [11]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 38.4 tons, up 6.8 tons year - on - month; the social inventory is 103.6 tons, up 11.8 tons year - on - month; the overall inventory is 142 tons, up 18.6 tons year - on - month; the warehouse receipts continue to rise. Currently in the inventory accumulation cycle, inventory accumulation will continue without unexpected performance at the export end or obvious upstream production cuts [11]. - **Summary**: Last month, the trading was mainly based on the weak fundamentals of PVC. There was a rebound in the middle of the month driven by the sentiment of the building materials and black sectors, but it was difficult to support the weak pattern of significant inventory accumulation. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is poor after the new devices are put into production, and it is necessary to rely on export growth or the elimination of old devices to digest the domestic excess capacity. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium term [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, and the prices of PVC in the East China SG - 5 market, as well as the trading volume and open interest of active contracts and total contracts, to show the market price and trading situation of PVC [15][19][24][26]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has dropped to a historical low, and the valuation pressure has decreased [42]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory and social inventory of PVC have both increased year - on - month, and the overall inventory is in the accumulation cycle. The warehouse receipts are also rising [11]. The report also provides multiple charts to show the inventory changes of PVC in different production methods and the overall inventory situation [31][32][34][38]. 4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have risen and then fallen, semi - coke prices have stabilized and rebounded, caustic soda prices have declined, and ethylene prices have fallen [49][52]. The report provides multiple charts to show the price and inventory changes of calcium carbide, semi - coke, caustic soda, and ethylene [50][53][56]. 5. Supply Side - In 2025, the PVC capacity will be significantly increased, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 250 tons of new capacity will be put into production throughout the year [61][66]. Although the average load of PVC decreased in September, the output was difficult to reduce due to the new device production [69]. The report also provides charts to show the historical trend of PVC capacity, the quarterly production capacity of new devices, and the production start - up and weekly output of PVC [62][64][75]. 6. Demand Side - The start - up of the three major downstream industries of PVC has rebounded, but it is still weak in the real estate downturn cycle and difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. The export volume in August increased year - on - year, but the growth rate was weaker than that in the first half of the year, and the export growth rate is expected to decline further after the implementation of the Indian anti - dumping policy [11][78]. The report provides multiple charts to show the start - up of downstream industries, export volume, pre - sale volume, and the situation of the real estate market [78][86][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for L and PP [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the accumulation of petrochemical inventory, new device production, and weak cost - side support drive the downward trend of polyolefins. For PE, the supply increases significantly, while the demand improvement is limited, and the cost - side support weakens. For PP, the supply is restricted by high raw material prices and maintenance, the demand recovery is slow, and the cost support is weak. Overall, the weak demand restricts the upward space of polyolefins, and PP's profit level also limits its downward space [2][3]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7077 yuan/ton (-76), and that of the PP main contract is 6745 yuan/ton (-107). LL North China spot is 7000 yuan/ton (-120), LL East China spot is 7140 yuan/ton (+0), and PP East China spot is 6750 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -77 yuan/ton (-44), LL East China basis is 63 yuan/ton (+76), and PP East China basis is 5 yuan/ton (+107) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 83.9% (+1.9%), and PP operating rate is 77.7% (+1.1%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 247.7 yuan/ton (+72.5), PP oil - based production profit is -382.3 yuan/ton (+72.5), and PDH - based PP production profit is -224.0 yuan/ton (+40.0) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is -41.5 yuan/ton (-0.1), PP import profit is -517.2 yuan/ton (-0.1), and PP export profit is 13.4 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 35.6% (+2.8%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 52.9% (+0.5%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.3% (+0.4%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 60.7% (+0.5%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the petrochemical inventory accumulates significantly. The supply pressure from new device production and weak cost - side support drive the downward trend. The supply increases due to the commissioning of a 500,000 - ton LDPE device, the resumption of previous maintenance devices, and concentrated arrival of imported resources. In October, the demand in the "Silver October" period has no obvious improvement, the procurement rhythm is slow, and the downstream follow - up is less than expected. The cost - side support weakens due to OPEC+ increasing oil production [2]. - **PP**: The supply is restricted by high propylene prices, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises decreases. In October, a 400,000 - ton/year device in Guangxi is expected to be put into production, but the return of some devices may be blocked. The demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season fails to meet expectations, the downstream demand recovers slowly, and the cost support is weak [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/09/2 5 820 7080 7200 9515 7350 830 785 -46 7169 -80 62 12736 2025/09/2 6 815 7080 7200 9500 7350 830 785 -46 7159 -80 59 12736 2025/09/2 9 815 7100 7215 9500 7350 830 785 -19 7181 -80 59 12736 2025/09/3 0 805 7080 7215 9500 7350 830 774 -19 7153 -80 59 12736 2025/10/0 9 805 7025 7200 9525 7350 830 774 -19 7077 -40 59 12729 日度变化 0 -55 -15 25 0 0 0 0 -76 40 0 -7 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游两油去库，煤化工去库，社会库存持平，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，09 基差华北-110左右，华东-50， ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - PVC supply - demand is weak, but there is cost support. The supply pressure is expected to intensify in October as new follow - up maintenance devices are few, previous shutdown devices restart, and new capacity may be put into production. Downstream demand growth is limited by the weak domestic real - estate market, and the export market is affected by the Indian anti - dumping tax. Inventory is likely to remain at a high level, which is the main source of price pressure. However, due to the deep loss of the calcium carbide process and the contraction of chlor - alkali profits, the lower limit of PVC valuation may rise, providing some support to the price. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 4719 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4769 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; trading volume was 708,041 lots, up 116,303 lots; open interest was 1,144,046 lots, up 70,687 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 128,365 lots, down 15,518 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; calcium carbide - based PVC was 4715 yuan/ton, down 26.15 yuan. In the South China region, ethylene - based PVC was 4995 yuan/ton, unchanged; calcium carbide - based PVC was 4776.88 yuan/ton, down 34.38 yuan. The CIF price in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 715 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The basis was - 129 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China was 2751.67 yuan/ton, down 8.33 yuan; in Northwest China was 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 513 US dollars/ton, unchanged; VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 546 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 201 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 78.97%, up 2.01 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 82.13%, up 2.8 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.75%, up 1.62 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 53.77 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; in the East China region, it was 48.84 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.93 million tons, down 0.2 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.05, down 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 39,801.01 million square meters, up 4595.01 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 643,108.94 million square meters, up 4377.94 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 31,693.94 billion yuan, up 3588.01 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 11.51%, up 1.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.17%, up 0.46 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options was 15.07%, up 0.33 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From September 20th to 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.97%, up 2.01% from the previous period. From September 19th to 25th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 1.43% to 47.76%, with the pipe operating rate up 1.3% to 40.43% and the profile operating rate down 0.52% to 38.91%. As of September 25th, PVC social inventory was 97.13 million tons, up 1.84% from the previous period. From September 19th to 25th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process rose to 5312 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 127 yuan/ton to - 657 yuan/ton; the average cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5602 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 7 yuan/ton to - 645 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the fundamentals of polyolefins remain weak, and the future upward momentum may mainly come from macro - level support. The domestic macro - environment is likely to improve, and there is also a possibility of improvement in the international macro - environment [8][25][26] Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Situation Domestic - As of the end of August 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. In August, new RMB loans were 590 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 310 billion yuan. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [9] - In August 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.4% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month. The ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat [12] - From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. New commercial housing sales area was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; sales volume was 550.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. Real estate development enterprise funds in place were 643.18 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In August, the real estate development climate index was 93.05 [14] - In August 2025, macro - economic data showed no significant improvement, and demand remained weak. Except for the improvement in PPI, other economic indicators were weak. However, the manufacturing PMI continued to recover in September, approaching the 50% boom - bust line, indicating possible improvement in September's macro - economic data [16][17] International - In August 2025, the US CPI increased by 0.2% from the previous month to 2.9%. In September 2025, the Eurozone CPI increased by 0.2% from the previous month to 2.2%. Current inflation in Europe and the US has dropped to a relatively low level, which is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost economic growth [18] - On September 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. The Eurozone's main refinancing rate has dropped to 2.15% [20] - High tariffs and high interest rates still have a certain negative impact on the US economy, but the US economy remains resilient. In September, the US manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.1%, and the service PMI decreased by 2 percentage points to 50% [23] - During the National Day, the US government shut down again, increasing market concerns. Wall Street analysts pointed out that this may lead to further deterioration of the US job market. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 94.1% [25] 2. Fundamentals PE - In September 2025, PE production and capacity utilization declined. Capacity utilization was 80.47%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points from the previous period, and production was 2.7079 million tons, a decrease of 4.22 percentage points from the previous period. The decrease was mainly due to the shutdown of new devices [27] - In September, the peak consumption season for PE arrived, and demand increased. The overall agricultural film start - up rate increased by 11.3% month - on - month, and the average start - up rate of packaging film was 51.48%, an increase of 2.04% month - on - month [30] - In September, the social sample warehouse inventory of PE decreased. At the end of the month, the inventory was 524,500 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons month - on - month and 54,500 tons year - on - year [31] - In September, the PE fundamentals improved. Supply decreased while demand continued to pick up, leading to a decrease in social inventory and stronger support for PE prices [36] PP - In September 2025, China's PP production was 3.3446 million tons, a decrease of 159,900 tons from August, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56% and a year - on - year increase of 13.73%. Production decreased significantly due to equipment failures and cost reasons [37] - In September, the average start - up rate of PP downstream was 51.10%, a month - on - month increase of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 0.63%. Although the start - up rates of some industries increased, the demand for modified PP and PP pipes declined significantly year - on - year [38][40] - At the end of September 2025, the inventory of PP producers was 520,300 tons, a decrease of 3.39% from the end of the previous month. The inventory of PP traders was 187,200 tons, an increase of 1.90% from the end of the previous month [43] - In September, PP also showed a relatively good situation of decreasing supply and increasing demand [46] 3. Market Outlook - For PE in October 2025, domestic supply will face pressure from the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices. Import volume will increase under the condition of loose overseas supply. Demand growth is slower than in previous years, resulting in a situation of oversupply in the fourth quarter. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation after the National Day holiday, so PE prices may decline after the holiday [8] - For PP in October 2025, the planned maintenance loss is expected to increase by 0.2%. The 400,000 - ton/year PP plant of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical is expected to be put into operation, and production is expected to increase by 3.54% month - on - month to 3.463 million tons. Although it is the peak demand season, supply still exceeds demand. After the National Day holiday, inventory consumption is still a concern, and PP prices are likely to remain weak [8]

Group 1 - Since Q4 2021, domestic housing prices have shown a turning point, leading to a shift in market expectations for the real estate sector, with continuous declines in housing transaction data and shrinking terminal demand for PVC, resulting in a downward price trend [1] - Current PVC prices are low, with domestic calcium carbide method PVC losing 750 CNY/ton and ethylene method PVC losing 650 CNY/ton, indicating deep industry losses. However, the production profit from caustic soda is 330 CNY/ton, allowing calcium carbide method PVC enterprises to maintain production [1] - As of September 26, the domestic PVC production enterprise operating rate was 78.97%, up 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, with weekly output at 479,600 tons [1] Group 2 - PVC inventory continues to rise due to high supply, with pre-holiday inventory at 1.328 million tons, a 2.11% increase, marking 13 consecutive weeks of accumulation. Social inventory sample data shows 971,300 tons, a 16.23% year-on-year increase, indicating significant de-stocking pressure [1] - The operating rates for domestic pipe and profile industries are around 40%. Real estate investment, new construction area, completed area, and sales area in August showed year-on-year declines of -12.9%, -19.5%, -4.7%, and -17%, respectively, leading to insufficient new orders and a weekly demand of around 450,000 tons for PVC [1] Group 3 - The imposition of anti-dumping duties by India on PVC imports from China has impacted exports, with duties ranging from 122 to 232 USD/ton for five years, although the market had anticipated this, leading to a "rush to export" in July and August [2] - The short-term supply-demand imbalance for PVC is unlikely to change, with ample domestic production capacity and high inventory levels. The downward trend in the real estate sector and the impact of India's anti-dumping duties on exports suggest a continued weak price outlook for PVC [3] - However, there are potential short-term rebound demands for PVC due to historical low prices, cost support, potential supply issues with upstream calcium carbide as winter approaches, and possible policy stimuli towards the end of the year [3]