晶圆代工龙头发布业绩，短期波动不扰长期逻辑 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 12 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业专题研究（普通） Table_ReportType] [Table_S [➢Tabl中芯国际 e_ummar Summy]ar：y]短期因素扰动上半年业绩，中长期成长逻辑不变。中 芯国际 1Q25 实现营收 22.5 亿美元，同比+28.4%，环比+1.8%， 上季度指引环增 6%~8%，营收不及预期，公司表示一方面是厂务 年度维修出现突发情况，影响了产品的工艺精度和成品率，另一 方面是新进设备导入验证影响良率。1Q25 毛利率为 22.5%，同比 +8.8pct，环比-0.1pct，上季度指引 19%~21%；归母净利润 1.88 亿美元，同比+161.9%，环比+74.8%。公司指引 2Q25 营收环比 下降 4%~6%，营收中值 21.4 亿美元；毛利率 18%~20%，中值 19%，环比下降 3.5pct。1Q25 公司产能进一步提升至 97.3 万片/ 月（折合 8 英寸），伴随下游需求逐步复苏，产业链进入补库周 期，1Q25 公司产能利用率达到 89.6% ...

国都港股操作导航 海外市场重要指数 收市 幅度 道琼斯工业指数 41249.38 -0.29 标普 500 指数 5659.91 -0.07 纳斯达克综合指数 17928.92 0 英国富时 100 指数 8554.8 0.27 德国 DAX 指数 23499.32 0.63 日经 225 指数 37503.33 1.56 台湾加权指数 20915.04 1.81 内地股市 上证指数 3342 -0.30 深证成指 10126.83 -0.69 香港股市 恒生指数 22867.74 0.40 国企指数 8308.83 0.10 红筹指数 3782.86 -0.31 恒生科技指数 5180.25 -0.93 AH 股溢价指数 135.44 -0.23 恒生期货 (05 月) 22761 -0.11 恒生期货 (06 月) 22649 -0.23 国都香港研究部 电话：852-34180288 网址：www.guodu.com.hk · 2025 年 5 月 12 日 每日投资策略 中美关税迎转机 港股后市见光明 中美财金官员在瑞士会面后，关税问题或迎转机。港股 上周五好淡拉锯，在 50 天线(现处 22790) ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a divergence in performance between major players, with SMIC showing significant growth while Hua Hong Semiconductor faces challenges due to increased competition and operational pressures [3][4][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - SMIC reported a revenue of 16.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.44%, and a net profit of 1.356 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial growth driven by the demand for 12-inch wafers and the release of capacity in mature processes [3]. - Hua Hong Semiconductor's revenue grew by 18.66% to 3.913 billion yuan, but its net profit plummeted by 89.73% to 22.76 million yuan, indicating severe pressure in the mature process segment [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market reacted negatively to the financial disclosures and shareholder reduction, with SMIC and Hua Hong's stock prices dropping by 7% and over 11% respectively [2][8]. - The reduction of holdings by major shareholders, including the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, has raised concerns about the future prospects of these companies [5][7]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - SMIC's focus on advanced process breakthroughs, particularly in 14nm and below, is crucial for its future growth, with a planned capital expenditure of $7.5 billion (approximately 54.4 billion yuan) for 2025, 70% of which will be allocated to advanced process R&D [3][9]. - Hua Hong Semiconductor faces the challenge of maintaining its competitive edge in specialty processes while needing to extend into more advanced processes like 40nm to capitalize on opportunities in automotive electronics [4][9]. Group 4: Industry Context - The semiconductor sector is currently in a cyclical fluctuation phase, with uncertainties in market demand and intensified international competition impacting company performance [8]. - The contrasting situations of SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor highlight deeper contradictions within China's semiconductor industry, particularly regarding reliance on imported equipment for advanced processes [9].

Core Viewpoint - The quarterly reports of the two major wafer foundries, SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, show mixed results, with SMIC achieving record revenue while Hua Hong faces significant profit decline, raising concerns about the semiconductor industry's recovery in 2024 and beyond [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - SMIC reported a record revenue of 16.301 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, and a net profit of 1.356 billion yuan, up 166.5% [1] - Hua Hong's Q1 revenue was 3.913 billion yuan, an 18.66% year-on-year increase, but its net profit fell to 22.7634 million yuan, a decline of 89.73% [1] - SMIC's revenue growth was below expectations, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of only 1.8% [1] Group 2: Future Guidance - Hua Hong expects Q2 revenue to be between 550 million to 570 million USD, with a gross margin of 7% to 9% [1] - SMIC's Q2 revenue guidance indicates a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4% to 6%, with a gross margin forecast of 18% to 20% [1] Group 3: Business Composition and Challenges - Over 95% of SMIC's revenue comes from wafer manufacturing, with consumer electronics, smartphones, and computers accounting for over 80% of its revenue [1] - SMIC's 12-inch and 8-inch wafer revenue contributions are 78.1% and 21.9%, respectively [1] - Challenges for SMIC include unexpected production line maintenance issues and equipment validation problems affecting yield rates, which are expected to impact revenue into Q2 and possibly Q3 [1] Group 4: Market Reactions and Industry Outlook - The reduction of stakes by state-owned investment funds in both companies has caused stock price declines, leading to a negative reaction in the semiconductor sector [1] - Market sentiment remains sensitive to these sell-off news, but experts believe it does not equate to a bearish outlook for the semiconductor industry [1] - Both companies express cautious views on downstream product demand, with SMIC noting oversupply in consumer electronics and Hua Hong indicating weak demand [1]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - SMIC achieved a record sales revenue of $2.2472 billion in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.4%, with a gross margin remaining stable and an operating profit of $395.71 million, up 12,766.6% year-on-year [3] - For Q2, SMIC projects a revenue decline of 4% to 6% and a gross margin of 18% to 20%, indicating a mixed outlook for the second half of the year [3] - Hua Hong Semiconductor reported Q1 sales revenue of $540.9 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with a gross margin of 9.2%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Hua Hong expects Q2 sales revenue to be between $550 million and $570 million, with a gross margin between 7% and 9%, amid uncertainties in customer demand and procurement costs [5] Group 2: Display Panel Industry - In May, domestic panel manufacturers increased production control and reduced utilization rates to stabilize prices, leading to a forecast of stable panel prices for the month [6] - Analysts believe that while end-market demand may experience temporary adjustments, domestic panel companies are well-prepared to respond through dynamic capacity adjustments and product optimization [6] - BOE indicated that the average utilization rate in the LCD industry has been above 80% since Q1 2025, but anticipates flexible adjustments in production lines in response to declining demand in Q2 [7] - The consolidation of the industry is accelerating, with BOE open to acquiring shares in Huacai and TCL completing the acquisition of LGD's Guangzhou factory, which will optimize the industry structure [7] Group 3: Automotive Industry - Geely Auto announced plans to fully merge with Zeekr Technology, aiming to enhance competitiveness in the smart electric vehicle sector through resource integration and cost reduction [8] - Post-merger, Geely's brands will maintain independent positioning while seeking collaborative development in technology, products, and supply chains [8] - Geely's chairman emphasized the importance of adapting to market competition and economic conditions to enhance innovation and profitability, creating long-term value in the global smart electric vehicle market [8]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index leading the decline, closing down 0.99% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.26% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.84% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 788 billion, a decrease of 21.6 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector faced a significant downturn, with Huahong Semiconductor dropping over 10% and SMIC falling more than 4% [2][4] - SMIC reported Q1 revenue of 16.301 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, and a net profit of 1.356 billion, up 166.5% year-on-year, attributed to increased wafer sales and optimized product mix [8] - However, SMIC anticipates a 4%-6% decline in Q2 revenue and a decrease in gross margin to 18%-20%, indicating cyclical pressures in the semiconductor industry [8] - Huahong Semiconductor's Q1 revenue was 3.913 billion, an 18.66% year-on-year increase, but net profit plummeted by 89.73% to 22.763 million [8] High-Position Stocks - Several high-position stocks experienced sharp declines, including Zhongyida, which hit the daily limit down, and Jinlong Electric, which fell over 11% [12][16] - Zhongyida's stock price surged 226.55% since March 10, but the company stated that there were no significant changes in its fundamentals, indicating potential overvaluation and short-term correction risks [16] Banking Sector - The banking sector showed resilience, with major banks like China Construction Bank reaching historical highs, and others like Qingdao Bank and Chongqing Bank rising over 2% [17] - Recent announcements from banks such as China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank regarding the establishment of financial asset investment companies (AIC) signal a strategic move to support equity investments in technology firms [20] - Analysts suggest that the establishment of AICs is part of a broader financial policy aimed at stabilizing the market and enhancing long-term capital inflow, which could benefit the banking sector amid economic uncertainties [20]

Group 1 - Major stock index futures are rising, with Dow futures up 0.72%, S&P 500 futures up 0.96%, and Nasdaq futures up 1.32% [2] - Bitcoin approaches $100,000 for the first time since February, leading to a pre-market surge in cryptocurrency stocks, including Coinbase Global up 4.28%, Bitfarms up 2.9%, and Strategy up 5.25% [2] - Intel shares rise over 3% in pre-market trading as reports indicate negotiations with Nvidia and Google for wafer foundry services, and Microsoft has placed chip design orders for Intel's 18A process [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have dropped over 1%, with COMEX gold latest at $3351.9 per ounce, down 1.18% from the day's high, amid expectations of a trade agreement announcement between the US and UK [2] - Morgan Stanley reports that the recent appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar has limited negative impacts on TSMC, maintaining an "overweight" rating, with TSMC shares up over 1% in pre-market [2][3] - Toyota forecasts a more than 34% decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2025 due to the impact of US tariff policies [3] - Arm, a subsidiary of SoftBank, sees its shares drop over 10% in pre-market trading after its earnings guidance falls short of expectations, with projected revenue for Q1 2025 between $1 billion and $1.1 billion, below analyst estimates of $1.1 billion [3] - Boeing plans to deliver the new "Air Force One" aircraft by 2027, after delays due to labor shortages and supply chain issues, with a contract value of $3.9 billion awarded in 2018 [3]

Group 1 - The significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) raises concerns about its negative impact on Taiwan's semiconductor industry, particularly for foundries like TSMC, UMC, and Vanguard [1] - A report indicates that for every 1% increase in the NTD, the gross margin of foundries typically decreases by 0.3% to 0.5%, suggesting a potential 3% to 5% hit to profit margins due to a 10% rise in the NTD since early Q2 [1][2] - Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation (VIS) forecasts moderate growth for Q2, with demand for communication, industrial, and automotive semiconductors recovering [1] Group 2 - Assuming an exchange rate of 30.9 NTD to USD, VIS expects silicon wafer shipments to grow by 3% to 5% compared to the previous quarter, but gross margin is projected to decline from 30.1% in Q1 to between 27% and 29% [2] - UMC estimates that a 1% rise in the NTD will reduce its gross margin by approximately 0.4 percentage points, while World Advanced's gross margin may decrease by about 0.5 percentage points for the same rise [2][4] - TSMC predicts Q2 consolidated revenue of $28.4 to $29.2 billion, with a gross margin of 57% to 59% and an operating margin of 47% to 49%, but further appreciation of the NTD could pressure these margins [2] Group 3 - TSMC has not adjusted its guidance for Q2 or the full year in response to currency impacts and is closely monitoring exchange rate trends [3] - TSMC has requested its suppliers to submit cost reduction plans to mitigate the effects of the strong NTD [3]

申请入围"中国IC独角兽" 半导体高质量发展创新成果征集 成熟制程（45nm及以上）：占公司产能的75%以上，广泛应用于消费电子、汽车电子、物联网等领域。先进制程（28nm及以下）：包括14nm FinFET工 艺及等效7nm的N+1技术（受美国制裁影响，先进制程量产受限）。8英寸晶圆：主要用于模拟、功率器件等特色工艺，月产能超23万片。12英寸晶圆： 聚焦先进工艺和高附加值产品，2025年总产能预计突破50万片/月。 在 Fab 厂布局方面，中芯国际在国内多个地区建立了生产基地，构建起庞大且完善的制造网络。 上海地区 上海张江 fab1 ：中芯国际起家的地方，也是中国最先进的工艺研发、生产基地。fab1包括了fab1-p1、p2、p3、so1四个洁净室，以前也叫一厂、二厂、三 厂等，so1是洁净室车间+办公室，过去作为8寸0.15umbcd工艺研发及产业化的基地。 上海张江 fab8 ：包括fab8p1、fab8p2、fab8p3。其中fab8p1又包括p1a、p1b、p1c，fab8p1a过去叫fab8，之前量产过12英寸工艺，最高到45nm，后来增加 了掩膜版生产线，目前主要生产掩膜版；fab8p1b过 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 2024年，AI引发的芯片需求全面爆发，半导体产业结构性转型持续演进。在这一年，台积电 再次交出了一份亮眼答卷：不仅巩固了其技术领先地位，还在产能、营收、客户结构与全球 战略布局方面全面开花，成为当前全球最具战略纵深的半导体企业。 透过其刚刚发布的2024年年报，我们可以更清晰地看到：在这场以AI为主引擎的产业变革 中，台积电正以技术为根基、制造为核心、生态为延伸，持续构筑属于自己的"护城河"。 AI爆发年，台积电"稳稳赢麻" 2024年，尽管全球经济仍充满不确定性，传统消费电子市场复苏缓慢，但AI相关芯片的需求却持 续强劲，推动晶圆代工行业走出低谷，重回成长轨道。台积电成为最大受益者之一。 年报显示，2024年台积电全年合并营收达900亿美元，同比增长30%；税后净利达365亿美元，同 比大幅增长35.9%。毛利率达到56.1%，营业利益率达45.7%，皆创历史新高。 作为全球晶圆代工产业的龙头，台积电已经在业内建立起不可动摇的地位。台积电在IDM 2.0产业 （包括了封装、测试和光罩制造等更多环节）中 占据34%的市场份额 ，较2023年的28%显著提 升，进一步 ...