就在美国准备对包括印度在内的12个国家下最后通牒时，印度突然宣布，将对美国部分商品加征高达7.25亿美元的报复性关税。 这一举动不仅打乱了特朗普精心布置的谈判节奏，更向全球释放了一个信号，印度不接受最后通牒，更不会任人摆布。 这场突如其来的反击，发生在美国对等关税90天缓冲期即将结束之前，7月9日，也就是两天之后，美国将正式对未签署贸易协议的国家，启动新一轮关税制 裁。 而就在这关键节点，印度以迅雷不及掩耳之势出手，在WTO框架内递交了正式文件，准备迎战美国的极限施压。 当特朗普忙着在社交平台炫耀"90天搞定90国"的关税战绩时，新德里的决策者们正翻着美国非政府组织十年来的资金流水。 今年3月，印度警方突袭8家美索罗斯系机构，意外发现一笔2100万美元的"民主援助"资金神秘蒸发。调查显示，其中1340万美元被用于培训邻国孟加拉国的 政治活动人士，直接导致该国总理在示威浪潮中下台。 这笔账让印度猛然警觉——那些年街头的反政府标语，背后是否也飘着美元油墨味？ 特朗普政府惯常的策略是设定一个明确的"最后期限"，以此施加极限压力。在与印度的贸易谈判中，7月9日就被白宫赋予了这样一层含义。 印度的"反击"战略，已经进入 ...

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have surged significantly since May 2025, reaching approximately 300 RMB per gram and 1286 USD per ounce, marking a nearly 40% increase year-to-date and a five-year high [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving Platinum Price Increase - Supply-side challenges include unstable electricity supply and frequent strikes in South Africa, the largest producer, leading to a noticeable decline in platinum production [2]. - The discovery of new large platinum mines is becoming increasingly difficult, and existing mines are experiencing declining ore grades and rising extraction costs, further constraining supply [2]. - Although recycled platinum can supplement market supply, growth in recycling is slow due to technological limitations and complex recovery channels [2]. Group 2: Demand-Side Support - The jewelry market is shifting towards platinum due to its relative price advantage over gold, with global demand for platinum jewelry expected to grow by 5% to 66 tons by 2025, and a 15% increase in China to 15 tons [5]. - The green hydrogen industry is emerging as a significant demand driver for platinum, as it is essential for proton exchange membrane electrolyzers in hydrogen production [5]. - The automotive sector is undergoing structural changes, with increased demand for platinum from new plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), despite an overall expected decline in global automotive production [6]. Group 3: Market Perspectives - Optimistic analysts predict a supply-demand gap of 41.2 tons in 2025, with supply growth at -0.4% and demand growth at 10.8%, supporting a bullish outlook for platinum prices [9]. - Cautious analysts warn that the current price surge may be driven by speculation and ETF demand rather than fundamental improvements, suggesting potential price corrections if speculative interest wanes [10]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - Investors should assess their investment goals and risk tolerance, considering short-term trading strategies or long-term holding based on macroeconomic conditions and market dynamics [12]. - Monitoring macroeconomic trends and geopolitical stability in major producing countries is crucial, as these factors can significantly impact platinum supply and prices [13]. - Continuous tracking of industry developments in the automotive and green hydrogen sectors is essential, as shifts in these markets can influence platinum demand and pricing [14].

Core Viewpoint - India has proposed retaliatory tariffs against the United States in response to the U.S. imposing tariffs on the Indian automotive industry under the guise of safeguard measures [1] Group 1: Proposal Details - India has notified the World Trade Organization (WTO) about its intention to suspend tariff concessions and other obligations on specific products originating from the U.S. [1] - The notification is a direct response to the U.S. extending safeguard measures on automotive parts imported from India [1] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Actions - On March 26, the U.S. implemented a 25% tariff on passenger cars, light trucks, and certain automotive parts imported from India [1] - The U.S. did not inform the WTO about these measures, which India argues are essentially safeguard measures [1] Group 3: Legal Context - India contends that the U.S. actions violate the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) of 1994 and the Safeguards Agreement [1]

日本首相石破茂反驳了有关与美国的贸易协议谈判进展甚微的说法，而此时距离24%的全面关税生效的 最后期限已日益临近。 贝森特提到的7月20日参议院选举，将让选民对石破茂的少数派政府的表现做出评判。据民意调查显 示，通胀是选民最关心的问题，但一份被视为给予特朗普过多让步的仓促贸易协议，将不会受到好评。 日本最担心的是美国对其汽车行业征收单独的25%行业性关税，该行业是经济增长的关键驱动力之一， 也是一个重要的就业来源。日本的贸易谈判代表坚称，汽车关税必须是任何协议的一部分，并强调了该 行业对美国投资和就业创造的贡献。 特朗普近日批评日本不购买美国汽车或大米，并威胁要将对等关税提高至35%，这引发了人们的担忧， 即他可能在他的重塑全球贸易的使命中将该国作为目标。但石破茂反驳说，特朗普对日美贸易的某些理 解是基于不准确的信息。 "特朗普总统曾说日本没有美国汽车，而且日本不进口美国大米，但这些说法都是基于误解，"他 说。"日本是美国最大的投资国，并创造了最多的就业机会，所以我希望这些努力也能得到赞赏。" 他在周四晚间的一次电视采访中说，"谈判正在稳步且确定地向前推进。涵盖的领域很广，包括非关税 壁垒，但关于这些要点中每 ...

Group 1 - The construction of a national unified market is essential for enhancing China's comparative advantages and scale effects, thereby increasing economic growth potential [1][2] - The new development pattern emphasizes domestic circulation as the mainstay, which involves smooth supply-demand cycles and the establishment of a unified market to boost demand and improve supply quality and resilience of industrial and supply chains [2][3] Group 2 - The Central Economic Committee has made specific deployments focusing on six key areas, including regulating low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [2][4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has established guidelines to create a set of universal action rules and behavior norms for the unified market, clarifying the boundaries of power and the "bottom line" for various regions and departments [3][4] Group 3 - The automotive industry is experiencing a decline in profit margins, with projections indicating a drop to 4.3% in 2024 and further to 3.9% in the first quarter of 2025, which is below the manufacturing average [5] - The ongoing price wars and "involution" competition in the automotive sector are leading to decreased efficiency across the supply chain, which could undermine research and development capabilities and raise quality concerns [7][8] Group 4 - Multiple departments are intensifying efforts to address "involution" competition, aiming to foster effective competition, technological innovation, and market expansion [9][10] - The NDRC is committed to addressing structural issues in key industries through targeted policies and measures, promoting healthy development and quality upgrades [10][11] Group 5 - The ongoing special actions to standardize enterprise-related law enforcement are crucial for optimizing the business environment and stabilizing market expectations, which will help private enterprises to develop confidently [11][12] - The special actions have already identified over 6,200 issues and recovered significant amounts for affected enterprises, indicating a proactive approach to improving regulatory practices [12][13]

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.63%, S&P 500 up 0.52%, and Nasdaq up 0.47% [3] - The market sentiment was boosted by Canada's cancellation of the digital services tax and the resumption of trade negotiations with the U.S. [3] - Investors are awaiting potential agreements between the U.S. and its trade partners as the 90-day tariff grace period announced by Trump is set to expire next week [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Large technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Apple rising 2.03% and Nvidia up 0.15%, while Google, Amazon, and Tesla saw declines of 1.29%, 1.75%, and 1.84% respectively [5][6] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese stocks, fell by 0.49%, with notable declines in JD.com, Pinduoduo, and NIO [6][7] Group 3: Oil Market - International oil prices fell, with Brent crude down 16 cents to $67.61 per barrel, attributed to easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and expectations of increased production from OPEC+ [9] - OPEC+ representatives indicated plans to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in August, following similar increases in previous months [9] Group 4: Political and Trade Developments - Elon Musk criticized the Republican "Big and Beautiful" bill, claiming it would increase the debt ceiling by a record $5 trillion and suggested the need for a new political party [10] - President Trump indicated that Japan may soon face a 25% tariff on automobiles, emphasizing the unfairness of current trade practices and the significant trade deficit with Japan [12][13]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, indicating ongoing economic recovery but with increased uncertainty in the economic fundamentals[1] - The production index in June is 51.0%, rising 0.3 percentage points from May, suggesting a return to normal operations in manufacturing[3] - The new orders index is at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, reflecting a moderate recovery in domestic demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is 51.4%, high-tech manufacturing PMI is 50.9%, and consumer goods PMI is 50.4%, all indicating expansion for two consecutive months[1] - The high-energy consumption industry PMI is 47.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, showing improvement in the sector[1] - The strategic emerging industries PMI (EPMI) fell to 47.9%, down 3.1 percentage points from May, indicating a seasonal decline in industry performance[16] Group 3: Market Outlook - The expectation for the second half of the year is a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, supported by a potential easing of US-China trade relations and risk-averse funds[2] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[2] - The overall GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.7% anticipated for Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively[20]

特朗普以"亲爱的日本先生"为开头的信函为例，说明美国将如何通知贸易伙伴新的关税安排，并称 美国 将对日本汽车征收25%的关税。 他强调，信件将会很快发出，并表示"我们不需要开会，我们了解情况，我们掌握所有数据"。 此前， 特朗普曾在5月16日和6月11日做出类似承诺，表示将在2-3周内发送单边关税信函，但均未兑 现。 与此同时，本周的美日贸易谈判已陷入停滞 。 日本首席关税谈判代表赤泽良生本周在华盛顿的第七轮 部长级谈判未能取得突破，甚至未能与美国财政部长贝森特会面。 美国转向单边关税策略 特朗普此番表态意味着，美国政府正准备放弃通过谈判解决贸易争端的做法。 特朗普在采访中表示： 7月9日"关税大限"将至，特朗普可能亲手终结谈判窗口？ 当地时周日，特朗普在接受媒体采访时表示， 无需延长即将到期的关税期限，将在未来几天内向包括 日本在内的数百个国家发送信函，单方面告知各国对美出口商品的关税税率，而非继续进行贸易谈判。 日本汽车关税成焦点 日美贸易谈判的核心分歧集中在汽车关税问题上。 据媒体报道， 特朗普在采访中特别重申对日贸易长期不平衡的立场，称"他们不买我们的汽车，但我们 却购买数百万辆他们的汽车。这不公平" ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the EU summit was the trade negotiations with the US, with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stating that they received a proposal from the US and are currently evaluating it [1][2] - The US government has extended the deadline for trade negotiations with the EU to July 9, with von der Leyen and European leaders discussing the prospects of these negotiations [1][2] - Von der Leyen indicated that the EU is prepared to reach an agreement but is also ready to defend European interests if a satisfactory deal cannot be achieved [2] Group 2 - French President Macron emphasized that while France supports a swift agreement, the goodwill of Europe should not be perceived as weakness [3][5] - Macron warned that the EU must utilize all tools to ensure a fair agreement, stating that US tariffs would inevitably lead to retaliatory measures from Europe [5] - German Chancellor Merz called for a quick and straightforward approach to the EU-US trade agreement, suggesting that rapid actions are preferable to slow and complex negotiations [6][7] Group 3 - Hungarian Prime Minister Orban criticized the EU's negotiating capabilities, suggesting that the leaders lack weight and negotiation strength [8] - Analysts believe that digital services trade could be a focal point in the negotiations, with US tech giants deriving about 30% of their profits from the EU market [9] - The US is pushing for the EU to relax regulations that they claim unfairly target American tech companies, particularly in areas like digital market competition and AI regulation [9]

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