Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the ESG industry, indicating a "Look Forward" rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The G20 Environment and Climate Sustainability Ministerial Meeting held in Cape Town focused on biodiversity protection, climate change, land degradation, waste management, air quality, and marine environment protection. China emphasized its commitment to global environmental governance and green development [3][12]. - The issuance of ESG bonds in China has reached 3,685, with a total outstanding amount of 5.61 trillion RMB, where green bonds account for 62.04% of the total. In the past month, 36 ESG bonds were issued, totaling 27.5 billion RMB [5][23]. - The market currently has 936 ESG public funds with a total net asset value of 1,035.32 billion RMB, where ESG strategy products represent 50.41% of the total. No new ESG public funds were issued in the last month [5][32]. - The report highlights the performance of major ESG indices, noting that all indices except for the 300ESG Leading Index underperformed the market recently, with the largest decline being 3.58% for the Wind All A Sustainable ESG Index [6][38]. - Zhang Zhengwei, a special advisor to the ISSB chairman, stated that China is entering a new phase of high-quality development in sustainable information disclosure, which is expected to reveal high-quality investment opportunities [7][40]. Summary by Sections Domestic Highlights - The G20 meeting emphasized China's role in global environmental governance and its achievements in improving air quality, forest resource cultivation, and renewable energy development [3][12]. - The launch of Hubei's ecological environment rights trading platform aims to streamline green transition solutions for enterprises [13]. - The National Energy Administration announced the first batch of hydrogen energy pilot projects, supporting 41 projects across various regions [14]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will support projects related to green methanol and sustainable aviation fuel production [15]. International Highlights - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) postponed the vote on the "Net Zero Framework" for one year, allowing member states to reach a consensus [4][18]. - Singapore and Australia have agreed to enhance cooperation on sustainable aviation fuel and biofuels, marking a significant step in green aviation development [19][20]. ESG Financial Products Tracking - The report details the issuance and performance of ESG bonds, public funds, and bank wealth management products, highlighting the dominance of green bonds and ESG strategy products [5][23][32][37]. Index Tracking - Major ESG indices have shown varied performance, with the Wind All A Sustainable ESG Index experiencing the largest decline over the past week [6][38]. Expert Opinions - Zhang Zhengwei emphasized the importance of high-quality sustainable information disclosure in identifying investment opportunities, reflecting China's unique advantages in market scale and talent resources [7][40].

Core Insights - The recent statements by President Trump regarding the termination of trade cooperation with China in the edible oil sector are misleading, as he refers to "edible oil" as waste cooking oil, known as "gutter oil," which is crucial for producing biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel [2][4][6] - The import of gutter oil from China to the U.S. has surged from less than 90,000 tons in 2020 to 1.27 million tons in 2024, marking a 14-fold increase, with the U.S. accounting for 43% of China's gutter oil exports [4][6] - Trump's threats to stop purchasing gutter oil could lead to significant consequences, including rising biofuel prices, increased costs in the aviation and transportation sectors, and a decline in the competitiveness of green energy in the U.S. [6][10] Industry Dynamics - China is expanding its market for gutter oil to Europe and Southeast Asia while developing its own sustainable aviation fuel industry, thereby building a self-sufficient supply chain [8][10] - The trade dynamics for soybeans have shifted, with China investing in infrastructure in Brazil and Argentina, resulting in a 56% year-on-year decrease in soybean imports from the U.S. in the first nine months of 2025 [8][10] - The U.S. is increasingly reliant on China for critical resources, including battery materials and rare earth elements, indicating a shift in the global trade landscape [10][12] Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, the U.S. stock market saw a loss of $450 billion in market value, while agricultural, biofuel, and technology stocks rose, reflecting investor skepticism about the feasibility of U.S. self-sufficiency in edible oil [6][12] - The market's quick response indicates a recognition that the U.S. cannot easily replace the imports of gutter oil from China [6]

Group 1: United States - The United States maintains its core hegemony primarily through its financial system, with the dollar being a robust protective barrier [3] - Despite discussions around "de-dollarization," the dollar's dominance in international payments, foreign exchange reserves, and global commodity pricing is expected to remain unchallenged in the foreseeable future [3] - The U.S. possesses a unique "exceptional" power, allowing it to transfer crises globally through monetary policy and utilize financial sanctions as a form of "financial weapon" against adversaries [3] - New York and Wall Street continue to be the ultimate destinations for global capital, supported by unparalleled market depth, liquidity, and complexity [3] Group 2: China - China's economic transformation is fundamental to its status as a superpower, characterized by both scale and quality improvements [5] - Predictions suggest that China may become the world's largest economy by around 2030, with its economic lead expected to widen thereafter [6] - China is advancing up the industrial and value chains, transitioning from basic manufacturing to leading in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaic products, and lithium batteries [6] - The country aims to dominate core supply nodes in the global economy through sustained investments in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum computing [8] - With a unified market of 1.4 billion people and over 400 million in the middle-income group, China has a vast internal consumption market that provides significant opportunities for businesses [8] Group 3: Brazil - Brazil's inclusion alongside the U.S. and China as a superpower is surprising but supported by several advantages [10] - The country is experiencing a demographic dividend with a population of 215 million and a median age of only 32, with over 68% of the population being of working age [10] - Brazil holds a dominant position in strategic resources, ranking fifth globally in iron ore reserves, with 8% of the world's uranium and 12% of freshwater reserves [10] - The nation has successfully transitioned from being a "coffee kingdom" to the world's leading exporter of soybeans and the second-largest exporter of chicken, with modern agricultural technology doubling production in a decade [10] - Brazil is also a leader in clean energy, with hydropower meeting two-thirds of its electricity needs and top-tier biofuel technology [10] Group 4: Changing Definition of Superpowers - The definition of superpowers is evolving from military dominance and ideological influence to a focus on comprehensive national strength, sustainable development, and resilience [12] - Brazil's rise highlights that countries with young populations, abundant resources, and a foundation in clean energy may emerge as future winners in the context of climate change and energy transition [12]

Group 1 - The core argument highlights the potential impact of Trump's proposed trade measures against China on the U.S. biofuel industry, particularly regarding the import of used cooking oil (UCO) [1][3] - In the first eight months of 2024, 384,000 tons of Chinese UCO accounted for 65% of U.S. imports, with an expected total of 1.27 million tons for the year, crucial for 72 U.S. biofuel plants [3] - The U.S. generates approximately 600,000 tons of waste oil annually, which is insufficient to meet domestic demand, emphasizing the reliance on Chinese UCO for achieving carbon reduction targets [3] Group 2 - The global supply chain challenges are exacerbated by the EU's increased demand for UCO, with a gap of 2 million tons due to Indonesia's export restrictions [5] - China's efficient waste oil recovery system can convert 10 million tons of UCO annually, while the U.S. faces higher recovery costs due to its fragmented restaurant structure [5] - The U.S. biofuel industry is struggling to source UCO globally, with significant competition for available supplies [5] Group 3 - Trump's suggestion to replace UCO with soy oil is economically unfeasible, as soy oil production costs are 2.3 times higher than UCO, and the transition would take 18 months [7] - Historical parallels are drawn to the 19th-century British Corn Laws, illustrating the potential economic consequences of protectionist measures on the U.S. sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry [8] Group 4 - Workers in Wisconsin's biodiesel plants are expressing concerns over raw material shortages, which have reduced production capacity utilization to 61% [10] - The importance of raw material security in the context of green energy transition is emphasized, with UCO exports from China contributing significantly to carbon reduction efforts [10] Group 5 - The article warns against the dangers of weaponizing energy supply chains, citing historical examples of trade conflicts leading to systemic failures [12] - The U.S. remains heavily reliant on China for soybean purchases, with an expected procurement of 32 million tons in 2024, countering claims of intentional trade disruptions [12]

Core Points - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly focusing on the U.S. response to China's export restrictions on rare earths and other products [1][3] - President Trump has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and hinted at retaliatory measures against Chinese imports, particularly targeting used cooking oil (UCO) [1][3] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. is considering retaliatory actions against China for halting imports of American soybeans, which has led to a significant drop in soybean prices in the U.S. [1][3] - Trump has accused China of deliberately stopping U.S. soybean imports and suggested that the U.S. could stop purchasing Chinese cooking oil as a countermeasure [3] Group 2: Used Cooking Oil (UCO) Market - China is a major supplier of used cooking oil to the U.S., with the U.S. accounting for 43% of China's UCO exports in 2024 [3] - The demand for UCO in the U.S. has surged due to the Biden administration's push for green transportation, which relies on UCO for biofuel production [3] Group 3: Implications of Trade Actions - Economists question the effectiveness of targeting Chinese cooking oil, noting that Europe is also a significant buyer of Chinese UCO, with exports to Europe increasing by 45% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024 [5] - Cutting off UCO supplies from China could adversely affect U.S. domestic reduction plans and energy transition efforts, potentially leading to higher costs for biofuel production [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains the rating, but the specific rating is not clearly stated [1] Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of the oil and fat industry, including futures prices, spot prices, industry news, and production and trade data [1][2][4] According to the Related Catalog 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,546 ringgit/ton with a daily gain of 1.65%, and 4,560 ringgit/ton at night with a gain of 0.33%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was at 51.29 cents/pound with a gain of 0.49% [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,060 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,250 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [1] - **Base Difference**: The base difference of palm oil in Guangdong was - 168 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 310 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 206 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spread**: The price spread between the rapeseed and palm oil futures main contracts was 816 yuan/ton, the soybean and palm oil futures main contracts was - 1,088 yuan/ton, etc. [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Indonesia's Bio - diesel Policy**: Indonesia is moving towards a B50 biodiesel policy, planning to launch it next year. The implementation of the B50 policy will require 2,010 million liters of palm - based bio - fuel annually, compared with 1,560 million liters for the current B40 policy [2][3] - **Malaysia's Palm Oil Data**: From September 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were estimated to be 1,013,140 tons, a 13.41% decrease from the previous month. Production was estimated to decrease by 2.42% (SPPOMA data) or 2.35% (MPOA data). The estimated inventory in September was 215 tons, a 2.5% decrease from August [4] - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Exports**: From January to August 2025, Indonesia exported 16.2 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a 13.56% year - on - year increase, with 2.56 million tons exported in August alone [4] - **India's Oil Imports**: In September, India's soybean oil imports increased by 37.3% month - on - month to 505,000 tons, while total edible oil imports decreased by 0.7% to 1.61 million tons. Sunflower oil imports increased by 5.8% to 272,000 tons [5] - **US Crop Forecasts**: S&P Global Commodity Insights lowered the forecast of US soybean average yield to 53.0 bushels/acre and corn average yield to 185.5 bushels/acre [5] - **Brazil's Soybean Forecast**: StoneX predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 178.6 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the September forecast [5] - **Argentina's Labor Issue**: Argentina's government suspended the planned indefinite strike of oil workers' unions in processing plants [6] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2, 2] interval [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need for global action in response to the challenges of green transition, highlighting the importance of international cooperation, particularly between Peru and China, to advance renewable energy initiatives [4]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Opportunities - The biodiesel industry in South America is rapidly growing, with Peru expanding its market share alongside major producers like Brazil and Argentina, positioning itself as the second-largest biodiesel center globally after Asia [4]. - Peru has established a mandatory biodiesel blending standard, increasing from B5 (95% petroleum and 5% biodiesel) to B7.5, reflecting its commitment to clean energy and emission reduction [4]. - The glycerin market presents significant growth opportunities, with Peru exporting 525,000 tons of crude glycerin and 155,000 tons of refined glycerin annually, which are widely used in various industries [5]. Group 2: Raw Material and Sustainable Practices - Peru's palm oil production is significant, with plans to expand cultivation, as the region currently utilizes less than 1% of its farmland for palm planting, indicating substantial growth potential [5]. - The goal is to achieve carbon capture of 5 to 11 million tons of CO2 by 2030 through sustainable palm oil cultivation, ensuring no soil degradation occurs [5]. Group 3: Future Cooperation and Technological Innovation - The economic cooperation between China and Peru is expected to expand into digitalization to facilitate trade, with significant potential in intellectual property and unique technologies [6]. - The emerging energy sector, particularly in oil-based chemicals, has a market size of $20 billion, which can support high-end industrial development and contribute to sustainable aviation fuel production [5].

Core Insights - European SAF prices have risen significantly, surpassing $2,700 per ton, driven by high subsidy plans and stricter enforcement of mandatory blending policies [1] - A surge in SAF demand is anticipated due to these factors, with expectations of a supply tightness continuing due to various domestic and international challenges [1] - The industrialization trend of SAF is becoming clearer, suggesting a focus on major players within the industry [1] Industry Summary - The European SAF market is experiencing a price increase, with current prices exceeding $2,700 per ton [1] - The implementation of high subsidy plans and mandatory blending policies is expected to strengthen SAF demand [1] - Anticipated supply tightness is attributed to slower-than-expected domestic supply growth, delays in export license approvals, and maintenance activities at major SAF plants [1] - The SAF-HVO price inversion is expected in the first half of 2025, indicating potential market shifts [1] - The overall trend towards SAF industrialization highlights the importance of monitoring key industry players [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses South Korea's initiative to promote Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) through a mandatory blending system, aiming for carbon neutrality in aviation and the establishment of a SAF alliance [3][4]. Group 1: SAF Blending Mandate - South Korea plans to implement a mandatory SAF blending ratio starting from 2027 at 1%, increasing to 3-5% by 2030, and 7-10% by 2035, with specific targets to be confirmed in 2026 and 2029 respectively [4]. - The government will support the development and investment in bio-based SAF through tax incentives, with facility investment support up to 25% and R&D support up to 40% [4]. Group 2: Global SAF Initiatives - Various countries have set their own SAF targets, including Japan aiming for a 10% replacement rate by 2030, Singapore targeting a 3-5% blending ratio by 2030, the UK planning to increase from 2% in 2025 to 22% by 2040, and the EU requiring a 2% blending ratio this year with a goal of 70% by 2050 [5]. Group 3: SAF Production Pathways - The article highlights the potential of non-grain alcohol-based SAF production pathways, particularly the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) process, which is currently in the commercial pilot stage [6]. - Research focuses on efficiently constructing long carbon chain products from non-grain biomass, with significant advancements made by a team at Zhejiang University in developing a one-step ethanol to C3+ olefins technology, which reduces operational complexity and costs while achieving high yields [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The development of biofuel industries in India, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore is driven by the need for energy transition, emission reduction, and enhanced energy security. Each country has distinct development models based on its resource endowment and policy orientation, with biofuels showing significant potential in replacing traditional fossil fuels, but also facing various challenges [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Biofuel Industry Development Background - The energy demand in South and Southeast Asia is rising due to population growth, economic development, and urbanization. To meet emission reduction targets and enhance energy autonomy, countries are turning to biofuels, with different development routes based on their resource endowments [9] Fuel Ethanol Industry Analysis India: E20 Target Achieved Ahead of Schedule, with Controversies and Opportunities - India has become a major global producer and consumer of fuel ethanol, achieving significant economic and environmental benefits. Policy is the core driver, with the E20 target advanced to 2025. However, challenges such as raw material supply and vehicle compatibility remain. The government is promoting raw material diversification and capacity expansion, but corn price increases may cause inflation, and raw material supply is subject to climate and food security risks [11][20][21] Thailand: Accelerated Development of Electric Vehicles, Fuel Ethanol to Gradually Yield - Thailand is a major producer and consumer of fuel ethanol in Southeast Asia, with development driven by policies. However, the rapid rise of electric vehicles is squeezing fuel ethanol demand. In the short term, fuel ethanol still plays a transitional role, but in the long term, the industry may need to explore exports or alternative uses. Raw material supply is affected by weather, and future capacity may need to be digested through new channels [30][31][33] Biodiesel Industry Analysis Malaysia: Blending Policy Implementation Encountered Hurdles, B20 Temporarily Implemented Locally - Malaysia's biodiesel industry, based on palm oil, has been steadily developing under policy promotion but faces challenges such as production fluctuations and shrinking export markets. The B20 and B30 plans have been delayed due to infrastructure and investment issues. The industry relies on domestic palm oil resources, and current production capacity is about 2.7 billion liters, with efforts being made to upgrade facilities and develop HVO [37][38][47] Singapore: Explosive Growth in Demand for Bio - Marine Fuels, Promising Future - Singapore, as the world's largest marine fuel bunkering port, has seen a rapid increase in demand for bio - marine fuels. Policy goals have created growth space for biofuel consumption, and market - driven demand has led to a significant increase in sales. An investment project is under construction to expand production capacity [48][49][52] Sustainable Aviation Fuel Industry Analysis SAF is in the Initial Stage with Great Development Potential - The development of SAF is crucial for the aviation industry to reduce carbon emissions. India, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore have all set SAF blending targets and are taking measures in policy, technology, and capacity building. However, challenges such as high investment and high prices need to be addressed [54][55][56] Impact of Biofuel Development on Petroleum Consumption - The development of biofuel industries in the four countries has effectively replaced traditional fossil fuel consumption. In the fuel ethanol sector, India has achieved significant substitution results, while Thailand's substitution effect may peak and then decline. In the biodiesel sector, Malaysia is steadily replacing traditional diesel, and Singapore's bio - marine fuel demand is growing rapidly. In the aviation sector, SAF is expected to replace a considerable amount of traditional aviation kerosene in the future [61] Summary and Outlook - Biofuels are becoming an important alternative to traditional fossil fuels. The four countries have different development models, with India excelling in fuel ethanol, Thailand facing challenges in ethanol development, Malaysia making progress in biodiesel with implementation bottlenecks, and Singapore having a bright future in bio - marine fuels. All four countries have potential in SAF. In the future, India's ethanol industry has prospects but needs to address challenges, Thailand's ethanol may yield to electric vehicles, Malaysia's biodiesel has potential but needs to solve problems, and bio - marine fuels and SAF will be more important, with Singapore leading in the bio - marine fuel market [67][68]