来源：中国能源网 信达证券近日发布石油加工行业原油周报：截至2026年01月09日当周，布伦特原油期货结算价为63.34 美元/桶，较上周上升2.59美元/桶（+4.26%）；WTI原油期货结算价为59.12美元/桶，较上周上升1.80美 元/桶（+3.14%）；俄罗斯Urals原油现货价为65.49美元/桶，与上周持平；俄罗斯ESPO原油现货价为 49.90美元/桶，较上周上升1.07美元/桶（+2.19%）。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本期内容提要： 【原油价格】截至2026年01月09日当周，布伦特原油期货结算价为63.34美元/桶，较上周上升2.59美元/ 桶（+4.26%）；WTI原油期货结算价为59.12美元/桶，较上周上升1.80美元/桶（+3.14%）；俄罗斯Urals 原油现货价为65.49美元/桶，与上周持平；俄罗斯ESPO原油现货价为49.90美元/桶，较上周上升1.07美 元/桶（+2.19%）。 【海上钻井服务】截至2026年1月5日当周，全球海上自升式钻井平台数量为376座，较上周持平；全球 海上浮式钻井平台数量为129座，较上周持平。 【美国原油供给】截至2026年01月02日当周， ...

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of "gutter oil" from a notorious food safety hazard to a highly sought-after resource for sustainable aviation fuel illustrates a dramatic shift in perception and market dynamics, driven by global demand for eco-friendly energy sources [1][3][30]. Group 1: Historical Context - Ten years ago, gutter oil was infamous for its health risks, including cancer-causing substances and food poisoning, leading to widespread public fear and government crackdowns on its production and sale [1][3][5]. - The 2011 major gutter oil scandal involved a vast criminal network across 14 provinces in China, with over 99.2 million yuan involved, highlighting the severity of the issue [5][13]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - In 2023, China exported nearly 2 million tons of gutter oil, accounting for over half of the country's waste cooking oil production, marking a historical high [3][18]. - The demand for gutter oil has surged, particularly in Europe and the United States, with the U.S. importing 718,000 tons in 2023, and projections indicating a continued increase in imports [3][18][20]. Group 3: Price Trends - The price of gutter oil has risen significantly, reaching an average of 6,525 yuan per ton by August 2025, a 24% increase year-on-year, with peak prices exceeding 10,000 yuan per ton [5][18]. Group 4: Transformation into Sustainable Resource - The shift began with the use of gutter oil in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which utilizes waste cooking oil to produce a low-carbon alternative for aviation, thus creating a new market for what was once considered waste [17][20]. - The global aviation industry has increasingly adopted SAF, with over 40 airlines using it, and a projected need for millions of tons annually to meet carbon neutrality goals [17][18]. Group 5: Future Implications - The competition for gutter oil has intensified, with countries recognizing its strategic importance in the energy transition, leading to the establishment of numerous biofuel plants in Europe and the U.S. [23][25]. - China is also ramping up its production capabilities for SAF, with several factories set to begin operations, indicating a shift towards domestic utilization of gutter oil for higher-value products [25][27]. Group 6: Geopolitical Considerations - The global demand for gutter oil has led to geopolitical tensions, with Western countries wary of China's potential profits from this resource, resulting in trade barriers and anti-dumping measures [28][30]. - The future of gutter oil as a commodity will depend on balancing domestic needs with export opportunities, as well as navigating international trade dynamics [28][30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that international oil prices experienced slight fluctuations, with Brent crude oil prices increasing slightly while WTI prices decreased slightly as of November 14, 2025 [1][2] - In the first half of the week, China's crude oil imports increased, and the US dollar weakened, contributing to a rise in oil prices due to improved market risk appetite [1][2] - The latter part of the week saw a downward adjustment in OPEC's monthly report, indicating a supply surplus, which released bearish signals to the market [1][2] Group 2 - As of November 14, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.39 per barrel, up $0.76 per barrel (+1.19%), while WTI crude oil futures settled at $59.39 per barrel, down $0.45 per barrel (-0.75%) [2] - The price of Russian Urals crude remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while Russian ESPO crude decreased by $1.43 per barrel (-2.51%) to $55.47 per barrel [2] Group 3 - As of November 10, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 370, an increase of 1 rig from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling rigs decreased by 2 to 128 [3] - As of November 7, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.862 million barrels per day, an increase of 211,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased by 3 to 417 as of November 14, 2025 [3] Group 4 - As of November 7, 2025, US total crude oil inventories increased by 7.211 million barrels (+0.87%) to 838 million barrels [4] - The US gasoline inventory decreased by 0.946 million barrels (-0.46%), while diesel inventory decreased by 0.637 million barrels (-0.57%) [4] Group 5 - The report highlights relevant companies in the sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in China's soybean procurement from the U.S. have caused significant concern for the Trump administration, leading to market volatility, highlighting the strategic depth of the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict [1][3][21] Group 1: China's Countermeasures - China's countermeasures have been targeted, starting with special port fees on U.S. vessels, increasing operational costs for American shipping companies [3] - The introduction of rare earth export controls directly impacts U.S. high-end industries, as over 90% of U.S. rare earth needs are met through imports [3] - The combination of these measures has led to panic in the U.S., with significant market repercussions, including a chaotic stock market response [3][5] Group 2: U.S. Response and Market Implications - Trump's reaction to China's soybean procurement changes has been notably intense, indicating deeper implications beyond just agricultural interests [5][7] - The U.S. soybean market is currently facing an oversupply due to reduced Chinese purchases, disrupting the usual price signals in the futures market [13] - Speculation arises that Trump's family may be positioned to profit from these market fluctuations, suggesting a financial motive behind his public statements [13][19] Group 3: Broader Economic Impact - The ongoing trade conflict is not merely a dispute over agricultural products but reflects a broader struggle over industrial security and financial stability between the two nations [21] - Trump's public comments risk undermining the stability of U.S. financial markets, which are crucial for the credibility of the dollar [19] - The strategic nature of China's countermeasures demonstrates a calculated approach to target vulnerabilities in the U.S. economy, indicating a sophisticated level of economic warfare [21]

Core Insights - The recent statements by President Trump regarding the termination of trade cooperation with China in the edible oil sector are misleading, as he refers to "edible oil" as waste cooking oil, known as "gutter oil," which is crucial for producing biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel [2][4][6] - The import of gutter oil from China to the U.S. has surged from less than 90,000 tons in 2020 to 1.27 million tons in 2024, marking a 14-fold increase, with the U.S. accounting for 43% of China's gutter oil exports [4][6] - Trump's threats to stop purchasing gutter oil could lead to significant consequences, including rising biofuel prices, increased costs in the aviation and transportation sectors, and a decline in the competitiveness of green energy in the U.S. [6][10] Industry Dynamics - China is expanding its market for gutter oil to Europe and Southeast Asia while developing its own sustainable aviation fuel industry, thereby building a self-sufficient supply chain [8][10] - The trade dynamics for soybeans have shifted, with China investing in infrastructure in Brazil and Argentina, resulting in a 56% year-on-year decrease in soybean imports from the U.S. in the first nine months of 2025 [8][10] - The U.S. is increasingly reliant on China for critical resources, including battery materials and rare earth elements, indicating a shift in the global trade landscape [10][12] Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, the U.S. stock market saw a loss of $450 billion in market value, while agricultural, biofuel, and technology stocks rose, reflecting investor skepticism about the feasibility of U.S. self-sufficiency in edible oil [6][12] - The market's quick response indicates a recognition that the U.S. cannot easily replace the imports of gutter oil from China [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the biodiesel industry, particularly highlighting the potential growth in demand for biojet fuel and marine biofuels, suggesting a focus on companies with significant biodiesel or raw material production capacity [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates a notable increase in HVO/SAF prices, with external SAF prices rising by 7.71% to $2127.65 per ton and HVO prices increasing by 8.69% to $2236.40 per ton [1]. - Domestic prices for waste cooking oil and gutter oil have also risen, with average prices reported at 6810 yuan per ton and 6420 yuan per ton, respectively [2]. - Significant industry news includes Singapore's record sales of bio-blended marine fuels and the U.S. EPA's proposed renewable fuel standards for 2026 and 2027, which are expected to increase biodiesel blending requirements significantly [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - External SAF and HVO prices have seen substantial increases, with SAF at $2127.65 per ton and HVO at $2236.40 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.71% and 8.69% respectively [1]. - European Ucome prices reached €1301.85 per ton, up 4.94%, while China's Ucome price was $1114.50 per ton, up 1.36% [1]. Domestic Market - Domestic waste cooking oil and gutter oil prices have increased, with waste cooking oil averaging 6810 yuan per ton and gutter oil at 6420 yuan per ton [2]. Industry Developments - Singapore's bio-blended VLSFO sales reached a new high of 95,800 tons, and the U.S. EPA's proposed rules aim to raise biodiesel blending to 5.61 billion gallons for 2026, a 67% increase from 2025 [3]. - The EU is launching a subsidy program to promote SAF usage, potentially increasing demand significantly [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with substantial biodiesel or raw material production capacity, such as Zhuoyue New Energy, Jiaao Environmental Protection, and others, due to expected demand growth and increased raw material supply [4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of waste management in China, highlighting how previously viewed waste materials like garbage and waste cooking oil have become valuable resources in the context of green economic transition [2][11][19] Waste Management Evolution - In the past two decades, China's urban waste generation has significantly increased, with municipal solid waste rising from 155 million tons in 2000 to an estimated 262 million tons by 2024, a nearly 70% increase despite only an 11.13% population growth [5][18] - The production of plastic waste has also surged, with plastic waste reaching 63 million tons in 2022, reflecting the rapid growth in plastic product manufacturing [4][5] Cooking Oil Waste Transformation - The issue of waste cooking oil, or "地沟油," has evolved from a public health concern to a valuable resource for biofuel production, with an estimated annual production of 10 million tons in China, of which 5 million tons remain unaccounted for [10][14] - The global trend towards sustainable aviation fuel has created a new market for waste cooking oil, with the European Parliament mandating that sustainable aviation fuel must account for 2% of total fuel by 2025, increasing to 20% by 2035 and 70% by 2050 [13][14] Technological and Policy Advancements - The shift from landfill to incineration for waste management has been supported by government policies, with incineration capacity increasing from 2.38 million tons per day in 2016 to 11.66 million tons per day by 2024, surpassing the total waste generation [15][18] - The number of wastewater treatment plants has also expanded significantly, with nearly 5,000 plants established, achieving a treatment capacity of over 250 million cubic meters per day, which is sufficient to handle the country's wastewater [17] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite advancements, there are concerns about overcapacity in waste incineration and the potential for resource wastage, as seen in cases where treatment capacity exceeds actual waste generation [18] - The economic viability of converting waste cooking oil into biofuels remains uncertain, as the production cost is approximately three times that of conventional aviation fuel, raising concerns about sustainability without ongoing subsidies [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies with significant biodiesel or raw material production capacity, including Zhuoyue Xinneng, Jiaao Environmental Protection, Shanggao Huaneng, Haineng Kexin, and Langkun Environment [4][5]. Core Insights - The biodiesel market is expected to see increased demand and raw material supply due to the cancellation of export VAT refunds on raw materials, which will drive growth in the biodiesel sector [4]. - Recent agreements, such as the one between Cathay Pacific and Sinopec for SAF procurement, indicate a positive trend in the adoption of domestic SAF, enhancing the supply chain for biodiesel [3]. - The average prices for domestic waste cooking oil and gutter oil have increased, with waste cooking oil priced at 6640 CNY/ton and gutter oil at 6180 CNY/ton, reflecting a stable export outlook for UCO to Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia [2][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The report notes a week-on-week increase in external HVO/SAF prices, with SAF at 1884.5 USD/ton (up 4.87%) and HVO at 1960.75 CNY/ton (up 3.46%) [1]. - Domestic price differences for biodiesel exports to Europe have reached 2539 CNY/ton, showing a weekly increase of 163 CNY/ton [1]. Export Expectations - The report anticipates a significant rise in China's HVO/SAF export volumes for May, with estimates nearing 40,000 tons, supported by rising external prices [3]. - The report highlights that the domestic HVO/SAF factories are maintaining strong procurement levels, indicating robust market demand [2]. Company Performance Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are projected, with Zhuoyue Xinneng expected to have an EPS of 3.16 CNY in 2025 and a PE of 14 [5].

以下文章来源于华商韬略 ，作者华商韬略 华商韬略 . 聚焦标杆与热点、解构趋势与韬略 作者：张静波 来源： 华商韬略（ID：hstl8888) 还记得地沟油吗？ 十年前，触目惊心的地沟油事件，让中国人咬牙切齿。 出人意料的是，十年后，它却惊天逆袭，一改过去遭众人唾弃的形象，被世界多国疯抢。 01 世界疯抢中国地沟油 两年激增580倍！ 中国地沟油在美国，被抢爆了。 2023年，美国从中国进口了71.8万吨地沟油。2024年再次猛增，仅上半年，就超过60万吨。 要知道，两年前的2022年，这个数字还几乎为零！ 这种大规模的进口行为，严重损害了美国农民的利益。 但即便如此，也未能阻挡这一趋势。在美国长滩港，许多进口商正在焦急等待来自中国的货轮。 不止美国人。 早在2012年，荷兰一家公司，就开始从中国进口地沟油。此后，这种行为被多国效仿，欧洲从中国进 口的地沟油呈爆炸式增长。 如今， 欧洲每天消耗13万桶地沟油，大部分依赖进口，其中六成来自中国。 由于需求太旺盛，地沟油价格飙升，一度超过了棕榈油，以致欧盟怀疑：自己进口的地沟油里，掺杂 了棕榈油。 于是，决定对中国地沟油征收关税。 大量地沟油涌入美国，甚至引发美国 ...