国信证券近日发布金属行业2026年投资策略：截至2025年11月14日当周，国际油价小幅 波动。本周，前半周，10月中国原油进口增长，美元汇率下跌，美国推进结束政府停摆的法 案提振市场风险偏好，叠加此前美国对俄罗斯的最新制裁影响正在发酵，且乌克兰继续对俄 基础设施进行打击，利好支撑下，国际油价实现上涨。周后期，欧佩克月报预测调整为供应 过剩，释放看空市场信号，国际油价下挫。整体看，本周布伦特油价较上周末实现小幅上 涨，WTI则出现小幅下跌。截至本周五（11月14日），布伦特、WTI油价分别为64.39、 59.39美元/桶。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本期内容提要： 【油价回顾】截至2025年11月14日当周，国际油价小幅波动。本周，前半周，10月中国 原油进口增长，美元汇率下跌，美国推进结束政府停摆的法案提振市场风险偏好，叠加此前 美国对俄罗斯的最新制裁影响正在发酵，且乌克兰继续对俄基础设施进行打击，利好支撑 下，国际油价实现上涨。周后期，欧佩克月报预测调整为供应过剩，释放看空市场信号，国 际油价下挫。整体看，本周布伦特油价较上周末实现小幅上涨，WTI则出现小幅下跌。截至 本周五（11月14日），布伦特、WTI ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in China's soybean procurement from the U.S. have caused significant concern for the Trump administration, leading to market volatility, highlighting the strategic depth of the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict [1][3][21] Group 1: China's Countermeasures - China's countermeasures have been targeted, starting with special port fees on U.S. vessels, increasing operational costs for American shipping companies [3] - The introduction of rare earth export controls directly impacts U.S. high-end industries, as over 90% of U.S. rare earth needs are met through imports [3] - The combination of these measures has led to panic in the U.S., with significant market repercussions, including a chaotic stock market response [3][5] Group 2: U.S. Response and Market Implications - Trump's reaction to China's soybean procurement changes has been notably intense, indicating deeper implications beyond just agricultural interests [5][7] - The U.S. soybean market is currently facing an oversupply due to reduced Chinese purchases, disrupting the usual price signals in the futures market [13] - Speculation arises that Trump's family may be positioned to profit from these market fluctuations, suggesting a financial motive behind his public statements [13][19] Group 3: Broader Economic Impact - The ongoing trade conflict is not merely a dispute over agricultural products but reflects a broader struggle over industrial security and financial stability between the two nations [21] - Trump's public comments risk undermining the stability of U.S. financial markets, which are crucial for the credibility of the dollar [19] - The strategic nature of China's countermeasures demonstrates a calculated approach to target vulnerabilities in the U.S. economy, indicating a sophisticated level of economic warfare [21]

Core Insights - The recent statements by President Trump regarding the termination of trade cooperation with China in the edible oil sector are misleading, as he refers to "edible oil" as waste cooking oil, known as "gutter oil," which is crucial for producing biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel [2][4][6] - The import of gutter oil from China to the U.S. has surged from less than 90,000 tons in 2020 to 1.27 million tons in 2024, marking a 14-fold increase, with the U.S. accounting for 43% of China's gutter oil exports [4][6] - Trump's threats to stop purchasing gutter oil could lead to significant consequences, including rising biofuel prices, increased costs in the aviation and transportation sectors, and a decline in the competitiveness of green energy in the U.S. [6][10] Industry Dynamics - China is expanding its market for gutter oil to Europe and Southeast Asia while developing its own sustainable aviation fuel industry, thereby building a self-sufficient supply chain [8][10] - The trade dynamics for soybeans have shifted, with China investing in infrastructure in Brazil and Argentina, resulting in a 56% year-on-year decrease in soybean imports from the U.S. in the first nine months of 2025 [8][10] - The U.S. is increasingly reliant on China for critical resources, including battery materials and rare earth elements, indicating a shift in the global trade landscape [10][12] Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, the U.S. stock market saw a loss of $450 billion in market value, while agricultural, biofuel, and technology stocks rose, reflecting investor skepticism about the feasibility of U.S. self-sufficiency in edible oil [6][12] - The market's quick response indicates a recognition that the U.S. cannot easily replace the imports of gutter oil from China [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the biodiesel industry, particularly highlighting the potential growth in demand for biojet fuel and marine biofuels, suggesting a focus on companies with significant biodiesel or raw material production capacity [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates a notable increase in HVO/SAF prices, with external SAF prices rising by 7.71% to $2127.65 per ton and HVO prices increasing by 8.69% to $2236.40 per ton [1]. - Domestic prices for waste cooking oil and gutter oil have also risen, with average prices reported at 6810 yuan per ton and 6420 yuan per ton, respectively [2]. - Significant industry news includes Singapore's record sales of bio-blended marine fuels and the U.S. EPA's proposed renewable fuel standards for 2026 and 2027, which are expected to increase biodiesel blending requirements significantly [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - External SAF and HVO prices have seen substantial increases, with SAF at $2127.65 per ton and HVO at $2236.40 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.71% and 8.69% respectively [1]. - European Ucome prices reached €1301.85 per ton, up 4.94%, while China's Ucome price was $1114.50 per ton, up 1.36% [1]. Domestic Market - Domestic waste cooking oil and gutter oil prices have increased, with waste cooking oil averaging 6810 yuan per ton and gutter oil at 6420 yuan per ton [2]. Industry Developments - Singapore's bio-blended VLSFO sales reached a new high of 95,800 tons, and the U.S. EPA's proposed rules aim to raise biodiesel blending to 5.61 billion gallons for 2026, a 67% increase from 2025 [3]. - The EU is launching a subsidy program to promote SAF usage, potentially increasing demand significantly [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with substantial biodiesel or raw material production capacity, such as Zhuoyue New Energy, Jiaao Environmental Protection, and others, due to expected demand growth and increased raw material supply [4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of waste management in China, highlighting how previously viewed waste materials like garbage and waste cooking oil have become valuable resources in the context of green economic transition [2][11][19] Waste Management Evolution - In the past two decades, China's urban waste generation has significantly increased, with municipal solid waste rising from 155 million tons in 2000 to an estimated 262 million tons by 2024, a nearly 70% increase despite only an 11.13% population growth [5][18] - The production of plastic waste has also surged, with plastic waste reaching 63 million tons in 2022, reflecting the rapid growth in plastic product manufacturing [4][5] Cooking Oil Waste Transformation - The issue of waste cooking oil, or "地沟油," has evolved from a public health concern to a valuable resource for biofuel production, with an estimated annual production of 10 million tons in China, of which 5 million tons remain unaccounted for [10][14] - The global trend towards sustainable aviation fuel has created a new market for waste cooking oil, with the European Parliament mandating that sustainable aviation fuel must account for 2% of total fuel by 2025, increasing to 20% by 2035 and 70% by 2050 [13][14] Technological and Policy Advancements - The shift from landfill to incineration for waste management has been supported by government policies, with incineration capacity increasing from 2.38 million tons per day in 2016 to 11.66 million tons per day by 2024, surpassing the total waste generation [15][18] - The number of wastewater treatment plants has also expanded significantly, with nearly 5,000 plants established, achieving a treatment capacity of over 250 million cubic meters per day, which is sufficient to handle the country's wastewater [17] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite advancements, there are concerns about overcapacity in waste incineration and the potential for resource wastage, as seen in cases where treatment capacity exceeds actual waste generation [18] - The economic viability of converting waste cooking oil into biofuels remains uncertain, as the production cost is approximately three times that of conventional aviation fuel, raising concerns about sustainability without ongoing subsidies [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies with significant biodiesel or raw material production capacity, including Zhuoyue Xinneng, Jiaao Environmental Protection, Shanggao Huaneng, Haineng Kexin, and Langkun Environment [4][5]. Core Insights - The biodiesel market is expected to see increased demand and raw material supply due to the cancellation of export VAT refunds on raw materials, which will drive growth in the biodiesel sector [4]. - Recent agreements, such as the one between Cathay Pacific and Sinopec for SAF procurement, indicate a positive trend in the adoption of domestic SAF, enhancing the supply chain for biodiesel [3]. - The average prices for domestic waste cooking oil and gutter oil have increased, with waste cooking oil priced at 6640 CNY/ton and gutter oil at 6180 CNY/ton, reflecting a stable export outlook for UCO to Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia [2][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The report notes a week-on-week increase in external HVO/SAF prices, with SAF at 1884.5 USD/ton (up 4.87%) and HVO at 1960.75 CNY/ton (up 3.46%) [1]. - Domestic price differences for biodiesel exports to Europe have reached 2539 CNY/ton, showing a weekly increase of 163 CNY/ton [1]. Export Expectations - The report anticipates a significant rise in China's HVO/SAF export volumes for May, with estimates nearing 40,000 tons, supported by rising external prices [3]. - The report highlights that the domestic HVO/SAF factories are maintaining strong procurement levels, indicating robust market demand [2]. Company Performance Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are projected, with Zhuoyue Xinneng expected to have an EPS of 3.16 CNY in 2025 and a PE of 14 [5].

以下文章来源于华商韬略 ，作者华商韬略 华商韬略 . 聚焦标杆与热点、解构趋势与韬略 作者：张静波 来源： 华商韬略（ID：hstl8888) 还记得地沟油吗？ 十年前，触目惊心的地沟油事件，让中国人咬牙切齿。 出人意料的是，十年后，它却惊天逆袭，一改过去遭众人唾弃的形象，被世界多国疯抢。 01 世界疯抢中国地沟油 两年激增580倍！ 中国地沟油在美国，被抢爆了。 2023年，美国从中国进口了71.8万吨地沟油。2024年再次猛增，仅上半年，就超过60万吨。 要知道，两年前的2022年，这个数字还几乎为零！ 这种大规模的进口行为，严重损害了美国农民的利益。 但即便如此，也未能阻挡这一趋势。在美国长滩港，许多进口商正在焦急等待来自中国的货轮。 不止美国人。 早在2012年，荷兰一家公司，就开始从中国进口地沟油。此后，这种行为被多国效仿，欧洲从中国进 口的地沟油呈爆炸式增长。 如今， 欧洲每天消耗13万桶地沟油，大部分依赖进口，其中六成来自中国。 由于需求太旺盛，地沟油价格飙升，一度超过了棕榈油，以致欧盟怀疑：自己进口的地沟油里，掺杂 了棕榈油。 于是，决定对中国地沟油征收关税。 大量地沟油涌入美国，甚至引发美国 ...