Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of a four-year down cycle, with indicators suggesting a potential turning point in 2026, as various metrics indicate the industry has nearly bottomed out [1]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of January 7, 2026, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index has decreased by 0.35%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1]. - The China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) was reported at 3930 points on December 31, 2025, a 39% decline from the peak in 2021, indicating the industry is at a historical low [1]. - The basic chemical sector achieved a net profit of 112.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, suggesting initial stabilization in the sector [1]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Supply Cycle - Capital expenditure in the industry has decreased by 18.3% year-on-year, marking seven consecutive quarters of negative growth since Q4 2023, indicating the end of the supply expansion phase [1]. - The use of construction projects to fixed assets and capital expenditure to operating income ratios suggests a turning point in the chemical capacity cycle [1]. Group 3: ETF Performance - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a net value increase of 48.72% over the past two years, with a maximum monthly return of 15.86% since inception [2]. - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 2.17% over the past year [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index account for 56.73% of the index, with Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum being the largest constituents [2].

步入2026年，聚丙烯产业链依旧延续2025年四季度以来的惨淡行情。新的一年，聚丙烯产业链依然处于 供多需少的困境中，产业链整体上行动力不足，或将延续低迷走势。 成本震荡深跌 作为聚丙烯的核心原料，丙烯市场在2025年传统旺季"银十"成色严重不足，受检修重启叠加新增产能释 放的利空影响，生产企业持续让利，行情震荡深跌。 生意社分析师表示，进入2025年11月，阳煤恒通与鑫泰石化装置停车检修，宁波金发、东华能源张家 港、天津渤化等丙烷脱氢装置陆续重启，价格持续走跌，山东丙烯市场价格一度降至5600元(吨价，下 同)，触及近年来新低，比2025年年内高点下跌22%。 此后生产企业挺价心态偏积极，市场也走出一波触底反弹行情，但自2025年12月中旬开始，丙烯价格进 入下行通道，再度跌至年内低位。 数据显示，2025年四季度，山东丙烯市场均价不足6000元，环比下降7.44%，同比下降13.81%。 市场人士表示，造成丙烯市场下行的重要因素是产能增速过快。2025年国内丙烯总产能预计攀升至7758 万吨，增长率预计为10.42%，导致行业供需错配压力进一步加剧。2025年四季度国内丙烯总供应量预 计环比增长3.21% ...

步入2026年，聚丙烯产业链依旧延续2025年四季度以来的惨淡行情。新的一年，聚丙烯产业链依然处于 供多需少的困境中，产业链整体上行动力不足，或将延续低迷走势。 成本震荡深跌 作为聚丙烯的核心原料，丙烯市场在2025年传统旺季"银十"成色严重不足，受检修重启叠加新增产能释 放的利空影响，生产企业持续让利，行情震荡深跌。 生意社分析师表示，进入2025年11月，阳煤恒通与鑫泰石化装置停车检修，宁波金发、东华能源张家 港、天津渤化等丙烷脱氢装置陆续重启，价格持续走跌，山东丙烯市场价格一度降至5600元(吨价，下 同)，触及近年来新低，比2025年年内高点下跌22%。 供应端压力仍是当前聚丙烯市场的核心制约因素。2025年内，聚丙烯新增产能集中释放的影响持续发 酵，内蒙古宝丰、裕龙石化等多套新装置已稳定产出合格产品，行业整体开工率在2025年年底前已经升 至近80%，货源供应保持充足。从产量来看，低熔共聚产量同比增加5%，中熔共聚产量增加12%，高熔 共聚产量增加16%。 山东睿阳化工贸易有限公司总经理王春明表示，目前聚丙烯价格处于相对低位，且部分下游企业存在节 前短暂补库需求，有望为价格提供阶段性托举动能。待今年 ...

【现货方面】 供应：截止1月4日，国内PX负荷至90.6%，亚洲PX负荷至80.9%。 需求：截止1月4日，独山能源250万吨重启，中泰120万吨重启后低负荷运行，威联化学250万吨装置提 负，PTA负荷在78.1%。 【行情展望】 1月6日，亚洲PX价格大幅反弹。原料端价格反弹，叠加市场传闻个别PX工厂暂无重启计划，一定程度 上提振市场情绪，尾盘窗口内贸易商接货挺价，推动PX价格进一步上涨。现货方面，2、3月现货月差 在-1，2月浮动预估在-3左右，3月现货预计维持在+0/+1左右。尾盘实货2月在898.5/911商谈，3月在 902/911商谈，2/3换月在-5/+5商谈。(单位：美元/吨) 【利润方面】 1月6日，亚洲PX上涨19美元/吨至903美元/吨，折合人民币现货价格7304元/吨；PXN至368美元/吨附 近。 【供需方面】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 ...

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows a mixed trend, with a marginal decline in construction activity [1] - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.7% week-on-week and rose by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 90% [1][4] - Apparent steel consumption rose by 0.9% week-on-week and increased by 4.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.2% [1] Group 2: Chemical and Consumption Chains - The chemical chain shows overall weak performance, with soda ash operating rate declining by 1.7% week-on-week and down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [9] - PTA operating rate increased by 0.2% week-on-week but fell by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to -8.4% [9] - In the downstream consumption chain, polyester filament operating rate increased by 0.3% week-on-week and rose by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 1.8% [9] Group 3: Construction Industry Insights - Cement demand shows marginal improvement, with grinding operating rate declining by 3.8% week-on-week and down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.7% [17] - Cement shipment rate decreased by 1.1% week-on-week but increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [17] - Cement inventory ratio continued to decline, down 1.7% week-on-week and up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.5% [17] Group 4: Demand Tracking - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 26.1% week-on-week and fell by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to -26% [34] - First-tier and second-tier cities showed improvement in transactions, with year-on-year increases of 1% and 7.6% respectively [34] - Port cargo throughput increased, with container throughput rising by 2.4% year-on-year to 9% [44] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices showed divergence, with egg and vegetable prices declining by 0.8% and 2.8% respectively, while fruit prices increased by 0.8% [79] - The South China industrial product price index rose by 0.6% week-on-week, with the metal price index increasing by 1.9% [90]

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows a mixed trend, with an increase in high furnace operation and steel consumption. The high furnace operating rate increased by 0.7% week-on-week and rose by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 90% [2] - Steel apparent consumption increased by 0.9% week-on-week and rose by 4.4 percentage points year-on-year to 220 million tons [2] - The social inventory of steel continued to decline, down by 2.5% [2] Group 2: Weakness in Petrochemical and Consumer Chains - In the petrochemical chain, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.7% week-on-week and fell by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [6] - The PTA operating rate saw a slight increase of 0.2% week-on-week but decreased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to -8.4% [6] - In the consumer chain, the polyester filament operating rate increased by 0.3% week-on-week and rose by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 1.8%, while the operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires decreased by 2.7% week-on-week and fell by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year to -9.2% [6] Group 3: Construction Industry Insights - Cement demand showed marginal improvement, with the national grinding operating rate decreasing by 3.8% week-on-week and falling by 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.7% [11] - The cement shipment rate decreased by 1.1% week-on-week but increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [11] - Cement inventory continued to decline, down by 1.7% week-on-week and up by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.5% [11] Group 4: Demand Tracking - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 26.1% week-on-week and fell by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to -26% [20] - First and second-tier cities saw improvements in transactions, with year-on-year increases of 1% and 7.6% respectively, while third-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 21.2% to -50.8% [20] - Port cargo throughput showed a recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7 percentage points to 3.2% [25] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices showed divergence, with egg and vegetable prices decreasing by 0.8% and 2.8% respectively, while fruit prices increased by 0.8% [48] - The industrial product price index increased by 0.6% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index decreasing by 0.2% and the metal price index increasing by 1.9% [54]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, public access to environmental protection facilities has been promoted in Yunnan Province, allowing families and students to experience the role of technology in pollution reduction and carbon neutrality, serving as a window to observe the achievements of building a beautiful China and a practical measure to strengthen ecological environment governance [1][5]. Group 1: Public Engagement and Education - Yunnan Province has included 100 units in the national public access list for environmental protection facilities, forming an open structure that includes both traditional and new categories of facilities [3][10]. - The integration of online and offline activities has created immersive participation experiences, such as university students observing wastewater treatment processes and thousands of online viewers interacting through live streaming platforms [3][5]. - Environmental education is emphasized to extend beyond classrooms into real-life experiences, allowing students to understand the significance of environmental protection through hands-on activities [7][12]. Group 2: Digital Transformation and Open Access - The province has been advancing public access to environmental facilities by innovating open formats and expanding participation scenarios, transitioning from passive acceptance to active experience [5][14]. - The implementation of a digital management system, including the use of a mini-program for public access, allows for integrated management of information dissemination, appointment scheduling, and data reporting [12][14]. - The expansion of open access to new categories of facilities, such as petrochemical and power industries, marks a shift from end-of-pipe treatment to comprehensive prevention, enabling the public to learn about low-carbon production processes [10][14].

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows a mixed trend, with an increase in blast furnace operation and apparent steel consumption. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.7% week-on-week and rose by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 90% [2] - The steel apparent consumption increased by 0.9% week-on-week and rose by 4.4 percentage points year-on-year to 220 million tons [2] - The social inventory of steel continued to decline, decreasing by 2.5% week-on-week [2] - The petrochemical and consumer chains are generally weak, with the soda ash operating rate decreasing by 1.7% week-on-week and down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [6] - The PTA operating rate increased by 0.2% week-on-week but fell by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to -8.4% [6] Group 2: Construction Industry Insights - In the construction sector, cement demand showed marginal improvement, with the grinding operating rate decreasing by 3.8% week-on-week and down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.7% [11] - The cement shipment rate decreased by 1.1% week-on-week but increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [11] - Cement inventory continued to decline, with the inventory-to-capacity ratio decreasing by 1.7% week-on-week and increasing by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.5% [11] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Trends - The national commodity housing transaction remains at a low level, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreasing by 26.1% week-on-week and down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to -26% [20] - The transaction in first and second-tier cities improved year-on-year, increasing by 1% and 7.6% respectively, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 21.2% year-on-year to -50.8% [20] - The port cargo throughput showed a rebound, with container throughput increasing by 2.4% year-on-year to 9% [25] - The intensity of human mobility increased, with the national migration scale index rising by 26 percentage points year-on-year to 35.1% [29] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices showed differentiation, with egg and vegetable prices decreasing by 0.8% and 2.8% respectively, while fruit prices increased by 0.8% [48] - The industrial product price index increased by 0.6% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index decreasing by 0.2% and the metal price index increasing by 1.9% [54]

转自：CCTV4 当陕北的煤，炼出华中的钢；当新疆的气，温暖华北的冬；当塞北的风，点亮江南的灯……大西北的旷野和西北能源人的担当，撑起了绿色中国坚实而可靠 的能源"粮仓"。 2026年1月6日18:16 《大西北》第七集《能源脉动》 CCTV-4、央视频、央视网精彩继续！ 黄土地上的能源史诗 △纪录片《大西北》第七集《能源脉动》海报 这片厚重的黄土高原，是中国石油工业的摇篮。多部古书都有关于"石油"的记载。1907年，延长县打出了中国陆上第一口油井。延安时期，这里的"功臣油 矿"支撑了革命事业，"埋头苦干"的精神由此铸就。 从玉门、克拉玛依到塔里木、长庆，大西北不仅蕴藏着支撑国家能源安全的丰富资源，更走出了以铁人王进喜为代表的一代代建设者。他们的担当与奉献， 汇聚成中国能源脉动的强劲力量。 兰州石化： "争气油"与百个第一 在黄河之畔的兰州，矗立着共和国的"石化长子"——兰州石化。1958年，这里炼出了第一桶国产汽油，被称为"争气油"。98岁的功勋工程师胡菽兰，至今仍 记得当年为国拼搏的激情。她参与研发的国产航空燃油，结束了我国完全依赖进口航空燃料的历史。 在煤炭富集的宁夏宁东，一场改变中国能源结构的革命正在 ...

元旦"微度假"热度高 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.04 2026-01-06 国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 1 期） 本报告导读： 消费复苏动能较强，但投资、生产仍需政策进一步提振。 投资要点： 宏 观 周 报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 元旦居民出行热度高，"微度假"是主流。跨区域人员流动以 19.5%的 同比增速创近期新高，铁路、水路客运增速领跑，中短途微度假成 主流，服务消费中游乐需求表现亮眼，但商品消费受年末翘尾效应 消退影响有所回落。其他高频数据显示，投资方面，地产销售边际 回落，不过其中一线城市限购放松释放部分需求，基建与开工建设 仍受新项目不足等因素制约。进出口方面，港口运行平稳，国内进 口运价与 BDI 指数走势分化。生产方面，多数行业开工率回落，呈 现分化态势，石化受成本抬升、汽车受需求回落影响表现平淡，锂 电、光伏中上游制造等新兴行业表现较好。物价上，PPI 商品价格普 遍回升，CPI 表现分化。流动性层面，人民币汇率升破 7.0 大关，资 金利率与国债收益率有所上行。 风险提示：贸 ...