私募退出活跃，科技投资热度不减 国内并购市场新陈代谢加速。 据普华永道8月25日发布的《2025年中国企业并购市场年中回顾及展望》统计，2025年上半年中国企业并购市场披露交易总额超过1700亿美元，较去年同期 大幅增长45%。 其中，超大型并购成交易额大增的"主引擎"，行业集中于高科技、大健康和工业领域。该机构预计在国企改革深化、科技革命催化、私募股权集中退出等多 重因素共振下，全年并购交易额将实现明显增长。 具体看来，2025年上半年，单笔交易金额超过10亿美元（约72亿元）的超大型并购交易达成29宗，其中20宗为境内战略投资，近半数由国有企业主导推动。 与境内战略投资的"高歌猛进"形成互补，私募股权基金的退出活动成为另一大亮点。普华永道数据显示，随着经济复苏预期升温及市场情绪回暖，私募股权 通过并购实现资本退出的交易量显著增长，并购已成为其最主流退出路径。 普华永道中国企业并购服务主管合伙人乔来智分析称，年初DeepSeek AI等颠覆性技术的落地，不仅点燃了科技行业的创新热情，更通过技术外溢效应激活 了传统产业的数字化转型需求，为并购市场注入新动能。与此同时，香港联交所IPO市场的恢复也为私募股权提供 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 3.1%, while the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index rose by 2.8%, and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index gained 2.6% [1] - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index saw an increase of 2.4%, whereas the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical and Health Comprehensive Index decreased by 0.3% [1] - The E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) recorded a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.39 billion yuan over the past month, bringing its total size to over 15 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng New Economy ETF (513320) tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index, which consists of the 50 largest stocks in "new economy" sectors within the Hong Kong Stock Connect range [2] - The index has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 23.9 times and has a valuation percentile of 49.3% since its inception in 2018 [2] - The E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, composed of the 30 largest stocks related to technology listed in Hong Kong, with over 90% of its composition in information technology and consumer discretionary sectors [2] Group 3 - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical and Health Comprehensive Index (513200) includes 50 liquid and large-cap stocks in the healthcare sector, with a weight of over 90% in the healthcare industry [2] - This index has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 31.7 times and a valuation percentile of 49.0% since its inception in 2017 [2] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index (513040) consists of 30 leading internet companies, primarily in information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 23.6 times and a valuation percentile of 19.1% since its inception in 2021 [2] Group 4 - The E Fund Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513070) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, which includes 50 large-cap consumer stocks with good liquidity, where consumer discretionary accounts for nearly 70% [3] - This index has increased by 2.8% and has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 times, with a valuation percentile of 19.3% since its inception in 2020 [3]

上周国际油价显著上涨 原油期货方面，由于俄乌在达成和平协议方面几乎没有取得进展的迹象，预计美国对俄罗斯石油产业的 制裁将持续，另外上周的最新数据显示美国原油库存大幅减少，推动国际油价实现三周以来首次上涨， 美油累计上涨1.37%，布油累计上涨2.85%。 上周前几个交易日美股市场行情低迷，大型科技股遭到市场抛售，但周五（8月22日）美联储主席鲍威 尔发表重磅讲话，暗示美联储对降息持开放态度，市场对9月降息的预期升温，美股大幅反弹。从全周 来看，道指涨1.53%，标普500指数涨0.26%，纳指跌0.58%。 本周市场重点关注美国7月PCE价格指数 本周五，美国将公布美联储关注的关键通胀指标——7月个人消费支出价格指数，也就是PCE价格指 数。经济学家普遍预计，美国7月核心PCE指数环比涨幅将保持在0.3%不变，同比涨幅小幅反弹至 2.9%。分析认为，本周公布的这份通胀数据可能不会成为美联储9月降息的阻碍，但高于预期的通胀数 据将会打压9月之后的降息预期。花旗集团分析认为，关税政策对美国消费价格的冲击比市场预期的有 所延迟，8月份至9月份将是关键窗口期，PCE价格指数同比涨幅或将在今年第四季度达到3.2%。 本 ...

尽管科技股是今年市场上涨的主要驱动力，但美国主流机构投资者却普遍选择与其保持距离。 据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师Sean Watkin最新报告显示，二季度，美国机构投资者目前对科技股配 置明显偏低，公募基金对信息技术板块的低配程度创下历史纪录，对冲基金的科技股配置也处于2024年 以来的最低水平。 报告显示，公募基金和对冲基金目前最为超配的板块是医疗保健和工业股。相比之下，两类机构均大幅 低配TMT（科技、媒体、电信）板块。 第二季度，两类机构投资者均增持了金融板块，该板块在对冲基金热门股票榜单中占据主导地位。第一 资本（Capital One）成为公募基金和对冲基金同时大幅增持的明星股票。 特别值得注意的是，谷歌母公司Alphabet作为科技巨头之一，不仅出现在公募基金减持最多的20只股票 名单中，同时也位列对冲基金持股下降幅度最大的"坠落之星"榜单。 科技股"七姐妹"持仓出现分化 在备受关注的科技股"七姐妹"（Magnificent 7）配置方面，公募基金和对冲基金呈现截然不同的策略。 公募基金进一步扩大了对"七姐妹"的低配幅度，从一季度的723个基点扩大至819个基点，且对七只股票 均有不同程度的减持。 ...

8月25日早盘，港股三大指数震荡上行，恒生科技指数一度涨近3.5%。A股同赛道规模最大的恒生科技 指数ETF（513180）一度涨超4%，持仓股中，蔚来、ASMPT、阿里巴巴、百度集团、网易、地平线机 器人等领涨，其中，蔚来涨超13%。 每日经济新闻 消息面上，美联储鲍威尔在Jackson Hole年会上作题为《货币政策与美联储评估框架》的演讲，表态偏 鸽，强调就业市场在供需走弱的脆弱平衡下面临的下行风险，释放了9月降息的信号。 华泰证券指出，美国当前形势暗示就业增长面临下行风险，风险平衡点的变化可能要求调整政策。鲍威 尔讲话后市场交易美联储宽松，美国基本面软着陆的概率上升，除美元外大类资产价格全面走高。美联 储降息预期升温推动美股、美债、黄金资产普涨，美债呈现牛陡，对全球流动性也将带来利好。海外环 境对国内资产整体偏利好，强化资金面叙事。恒生科技指数近期涨幅相对较小，海外流动性宽松+AI科 技主题+部分公司业绩有望形成一定共振，恒生科技或是弹性品种。 鲍威尔罕见"放鸽"，美联储降息预期显著回温，海外流动性有望持续好转。截至发文，CME FedWatch Tool显示9月议息会议降息25BP的概率超85%。在 ...

债市何时回调到位 20250824 摘要 A 股市场面临多重利好，包括全球流动性宽松预期、业绩风险释放、外 部压力缓解、科技产业催化以及资金入场形成正循环，为权益市场带来 上涨动力。 转债市场供需紧平衡加剧，存量转债加速强赎退出，新券供给不足，而 机构投资者对转债的刚性配置需求强烈，转债 ETF 规模显著增长，表明 机构加仓意愿强烈。 转债价格中位数突破 135 元，估值处于历史高位，但考虑到权益市场慢 牛预期、中小盘股票及科技板块的上涨空间以及专业机构投资者占比提 升，估值仍有上行空间。 建议采取哑铃型转债投资策略，一方面关注偏股型优质标的，如 AI 算力、 半导体等科技成长赛道；另一方面选择低价、具备下修博弈潜力或偏大 盘底仓品种，以博取整体收益。 债市回调主因是市场预期变化而非经济数据回暖，可通过观察 30 年-10 年期国债利差收窄、地方债和超长债交投热度增加以及 2024 年底过度 预期回吐程度来判断回调是否到位。 Q&A 请问过去一周转债市场的表现如何？ 过去一周，权益市场加速上行，上证指数从突破 3,700 点到 3,800 点仅用了一 周时间，创下十年新高。两市成交额维持在 2.4 万亿以上， ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） ——丁宁） T'J·四、 M AVVI日JXノ——JIXO 当时对杠杆投资、场外配资等管控较松， 带动市场出现一波杠杆牛。 A股在几个月时间里，从5星一口气涨到1星 泡沫估值。当时中证全指，从2000多点， 最高冲到8000多点。 同时，在2015年中小盘、成长风格大涨的 时候，价值风格相对低迷，跑输市场。 不过，因为市场太疯狂，2015年下半年， A股整体腰斩下跌。估值也快速回落到4点 几星。 (4) 2016年 随着2014年推出的一篮子刺激政策逐渐落 地，A股上市公司基本面逐渐复苏。 2014-2015年上涨比较少的价值股、消费 股，逐渐发力上涨。 2016-2017年出现了一轮基本面复苏,带 来的价值股慢牛行情。红利、价值、低波 动，以及消费等行业，逐渐上涨，在2017 年底，超过2015年牛市最高位水平。 而中小盘、成长股，因为2015年涨的实在 太多，2015-2017年整体下跌。 2024年，跟2013-2014年比较相似。 · 2023-2024年,也是基本面低迷,上市公 司盈利整体下降。 ·2024年9月，随着美联储首次降息，咱们 也推出了一篮子的降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to enter a sustainable "slow bull" phase, driven by multiple factors including policy support, capital structure optimization, and industrial trends [20][21][22]. Group 1: Market Drivers - The recent rise in the Shanghai Composite Index above 3800 points is attributed to a combination of policy measures, technological advancements, and improved market sentiment [15][16][18]. - The current market differs from previous peaks, as it is characterized by a shift towards technology and cyclical sectors, rather than a concentration in a few leading industries [18][19]. - The economic cycle is now driven by new productive forces, particularly in technology and manufacturing, which are expected to enhance competitiveness on a global scale [24][25]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are shifting towards a balanced approach, focusing on sectors benefiting from national development strategies and clear industrial trends, such as AI and high-end manufacturing [30][31]. - There is an emphasis on maintaining a diversified portfolio that includes both growth sectors and value stocks, with a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and earnings potential [31][32]. - The investment outlook suggests a cautious yet optimistic stance, with a preference for sectors that are likely to benefit from ongoing policy support and economic recovery [33][34]. Group 3: Sector Opportunities - Key sectors identified for investment include new productive forces and high-end manufacturing, AI applications, and industries benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy [34][35]. - The technology sector, particularly AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, is seen as having significant growth potential, with a focus on companies that can effectively monetize their technological advancements [35][36]. - Traditional sectors are also viewed as having opportunities, especially those that can adapt to changing market conditions and benefit from macroeconomic policies [36][37]. Group 4: Market Risks and Uncertainties - Current market conditions exhibit signs of exuberance, with trading volumes high and some sectors potentially overheating, necessitating caution [39][40]. - Key uncertainties include the pace of corporate earnings recovery, the effectiveness of policy implementation, and external factors such as global economic fluctuations and geopolitical tensions [39][40]. - Investors are advised to align their equity exposure with their risk tolerance, focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals while being mindful of market volatility [41][42].

在当今的投资领域，科技行业凭借其巨大的发展潜力和创新活力，吸引了众多投资者通过基金投资的方 式参与其中。然而，科技行业的特性决定了其基金投资蕴含着不可忽视的风险，掌握有效的风险防范方 法至关重要。 科技行业的一个显著特点是创新速度极快。新技术不断涌现，原有技术和产品可能迅速被替代。在这样 的环境下，投资科技行业基金就面临着技术迭代风险。对于科技企业而言，一旦在技术创新竞争中失 利，其业绩可能大幅下滑，进而导致相关基金净值受到负面影响。因此，投资者要密切关注行业技术发 展趋势，了解基金所投资的科技企业研发投入和创新能力。选择研发实力雄厚，能够持续推出符合市场 需求新产品和新技术的企业所关联的基金，可一定程度上降低技术迭代风险。 免责声明： 本文内容根据公开信息整理生成，不代表发布者及其关联方的官方立场或观点，亦不构成任何形式的投 资建议。请您对文中关键信息进行独立核实，自主决策并承担相应风险。 科技行业也极易受到宏观政策调整的影响。政府的政策扶持对科技企业发展作用明显，但如果政策方向 改变或扶持力度减弱，科技企业的发展步伐可能受阻。比如对于一些特定领域的科技企业，税收优惠政 策的取消或产业标准的变化，都会影响企 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the media industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The media sector saw a 5.82% increase during the week of August 18-22, driven by strong performance in the gaming sector and favorable policies in the film industry [11][12]. - The introduction of the "21 Regulations" by the National Radio and Television Administration is expected to revitalize the long video industry by removing restrictions on series production and promoting high-quality IP development [3][20]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in gaming, AI applications, and IP monetization, with a focus on companies with strong IP advantages and full industry chain potential [2][18]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The media sector's performance was bolstered by positive expectations for mid-year reports and favorable policy changes, particularly in gaming and film [11][12]. - The top-performing stocks in the media sector included Shunwang Technology (up 24.2%), Kunlun Wanwei (up 23.5%), and Zhidu Co. (up 20.5%) [12][15]. Subsector Insights - **Gaming**: Key companies to watch include ST Huatuo, Jibite, and Kaixin Network, with additional attention on Perfect World and Ice River Network [2][18]. - **AI**: Focus on companies like Dou Shen Education and Sheng Tian Network, which are positioned to benefit from AI advancements [2][18]. - **Education**: Companies such as Xueda Education and Fenbi are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2][18]. Key Events - The "21 Regulations" meeting on August 18 provided clarity on new policies aimed at enhancing the film industry, which is expected to lead to a resurgence in production and quality [3][20]. - The launch of DeepSeek's DS-V3.1 model marks a significant advancement in AI technology, with implications for various sectors, including media [4][20]. Data Tracking - The domestic film market generated approximately 1.107 billion yuan in box office revenue from August 16-22, with top films including "Wang Wang Mountain Little Monster" and "Chasing the Wind" [22][24]. - The report also tracks the performance of popular series and variety shows, indicating strong viewer engagement [25].