Core Viewpoint - International precious metals closed mixed on November 3, with COMEX gold futures rising while COMEX silver futures declined [1][2] Group 1: Gold Market - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.43%, closing at $4013.7 per ounce [1] Group 2: Silver Market - COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.52%, closing at $47.91 per ounce [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Powell's hawkish stance means the release of expectations for the Fed's loose monetary policy requires time, but the Fed Chair has explained balance - sheet expansion. The December interest - rate cut is uncertain, while the subsequent "rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy is emphasized [2] - In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with potential spot shortages, it is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [2] Group 3: Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.39% to 921.84 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.25% to 11382.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold was at 4013.40 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver was at 48.25 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.11%, and the US dollar index was 99.73 [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the overseas spot silver implied lease rate was 5.95%, the overseas silver EFP rate was 0.35 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1537 tons from the high on October 3 to 15005.53 tons [1] Group 4: Historical Price Drivers - Changes in the Fed's balance sheet have a more significant impact on precious - metal prices than interest - rate policies. In May 2024, the Fed slowed QT, and the COMEX silver price rose 19.7% from May 2 to May 21 [1] - In August 2010, Bernanke's speech hinted at QE2, and from the end of August 2010 to the end of April 2011, the COMEX silver price soared 169% [1] Group 5: Silver Spot Situation - The previous tight - spot situation driving silver prices has eased, but COMEX silver is still in the process of continuous de - stocking, and the London silver premium over New York silver rebounded last Friday. The continuous de - stocking of COMEX silver indicates strong physical demand for silver in the fourth quarter [1] Group 6: Key Data Summary - For gold on October 31, 2025, the COMEX closing price rose 0.96%, the trading volume fell 98.56%, the position increased 2.43%, and the inventory decreased 0.20%. Similar data for other gold - related indicators are also provided [5] - For silver on October 31, 2025, the COMEX closing price fell 0.99%, the position increased 1.75%, the inventory decreased 0.14%. Similar data for other silver - related indicators are also provided [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Weekly Report [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: November 2, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - This week, London gold fell 2.26%, and London silver rose 1.99%. The gold-silver ratio dropped from 85.6 to 81.7, the 10-year TIPS fell to 1.81%, the 10-year nominal interest rate fell to 4.11% (2-year 3.6%), and the US dollar index was 99.73 [5]. - The prices of precious metals stabilized this week. The outcome of the China-US trade negotiation was in line with expectations, causing the market to return to the narrative of G2 confrontation. Technically, gold near $4,000 has the cost - effectiveness for bottom - fishing. For silver, although the overseas price spread contradiction has eased, the long - term low inventory in the London market remains unsolved. On October 30, the silver lease rate rebounded slightly, and the London - New York price spread showed signs of a rebound. Short - term upward rebound potential in silver is worth attention, while gold has the cost - effectiveness for bottom - fishing but lacks the driving force for a new rise and may require monthly - level oscillations to digest the price [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spreads - **Gold**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -$74.51 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -$81.5 per ounce [11]. - **Silver**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.4062 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was $0.43 per ounce [14]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spreads - **Gold**: This week, the gold spot - futures price spread was -$0.9 per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [18]. - **Silver**: This week, the silver spot - futures price spread was -$31 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [20]. 3.1.3 Monthly Price Spreads - **Gold**: This week, the gold monthly price spread was $7.12 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [24]. - **Silver**: This week, the silver monthly price spread was $58 per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [29]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs - **Buy TD and Sell Shanghai Gold**: The total cost is $3.34 per gram [32]. - **Buy Shanghai Gold December and Sell June**: The total cost is $15.30 per gram [33]. - **Buy TD and Sell Shanghai Silver**: The total cost is $46.59 per kilogram [34]. - **Buy Shanghai Silver December and Sell June**: The total cost is $179.52 per kilogram [35]. 3.1.5 Shanghai Gold Exchange Spot Deferred Fee Payment Directions - Gold mainly had long - to - short payments, indicating strong delivery power; silver mainly had short - to - long payments, indicating strong receiving power [36]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratios - **COMEX Gold**: Inventory decreased by 0.71 million ounces this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52% [38]. - **COMEX Silver**: Inventory decreased by 451 tons to 15,005 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 34% [40]. - **Futures Inventory**: Gold futures inventory increased by 0.8 tons, silver futures inventory decreased to 664 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased by 190 tons to 905 tons [42]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions - COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold increased slightly, while those in silver decreased slightly this week [44]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - **Gold**: The SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased by 13.17 tons this week [50]. - **Silver**: The SLV silver ETF inventory decreased by 230 tons this week [53]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio fell from 85.6 last week to 81 this week [54]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - The 3 - month gold lease rate was -0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 4.7% this week [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: The correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered this week, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: Data on inflation and retail sales are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Non - Farm Payroll Performance**: Data on non - farm payroll performance are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Fed Rate - Cut Probability**: No specific data or analysis is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent correction in precious metal prices is mainly due to the expectation of a temporary easing of overseas risk events and an over - bought correction in trading, rather than a reversal of the trading logic. The price decline is more of a "correction in the upward trend" than a "trend reversal" based on geopolitical risks, weakening US dollar credit, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, focusing on the upcoming Fed interest - rate meeting and considering buying on dips. [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On October 27, 2025, Shanghai gold futures (SHFE) fell 0.48% to 941.34 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.25% to 11,419.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4,126.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 48.41 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index was 98.94. [2] - From August 22 to October 17, the price of the COMEX gold main contract rose by 26.21%, and the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose by 31.23%. On October 21, COMEX gold prices dropped by 5.07%, and COMEX silver prices dropped by 6.27%. [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices - Overseas risk events: Media reports of a potential peace plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a short - term drop in precious metal prices. However, the situation has not been completely reversed as Trump and the White House stated there are no plans for a meeting between the US and Russian presidents. [2] - US inflation data and Fed policy expectations: US September CPI data was lower than expected, boosting expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy. Due to the government shutdown in October, inflation data may not be released in November. The market has almost fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in the next two Fed meetings. [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - Maintain a long - position strategy. Focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting on Thursday (market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut), and pay attention to Powell's statement on the balance - sheet. It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference trading range for the SHFE gold main contract is 923 - 982 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver main contract is 11,082 - 12,023 yuan/kilogram. [4] 3.4 Data Summary - **Gold**: On October 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.39% to 4,126.90 US dollars/ounce, trading volume increased by 10.19% to 29.20 million lots, and open interest increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.44% to 938.10 yuan/gram, trading volume decreased by 33.87% to 49.95 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.28% to 35.59 million lots. [7] - **Silver**: On October 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.49% to 48.41 US dollars/ounce, open interest increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.18% to 11,332.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume decreased by 5.55% to 147.59 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.97% to 73.99 million lots. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is still in the early stage of the easing cycle, and the most important driver - the new Fed Chair nominee has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals. Wait for the price to stabilize and then enter long positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 928 - 982 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 10962 - 11690 yuan/kilogram [4]. - Precious metal prices have found short - term support after a significant decline. The macro environment still has positive factors for gold and silver prices, but from the perspective of positions, they still need to consolidate. Overseas risk aversion has increased, leading to a short - term stabilization of gold prices. Tomorrow evening, the US September CPI data will be released. The US Treasury Secretary expects the CPI to decline next month [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On October 23, 2025, Shanghai Gold fell 1.56% to 934.72 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 0.04% to 11331.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4101.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 48.03 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index was 98.92 [2]. - Comparing this week with last week, SHFE Gold was at 994.06 yuan/gram, up 5.87%; SHFE Silver was at 11805.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.36%. COMEX Gold was at 4138.50 US dollars/ounce, down 0.51%; COMEX Silver was at 48.16 US dollars/ounce, down 4.34% [5]. 3.2 Position and Inventory - The positions of gold and silver ETFs were relatively weak due to the impact of price shocks. The SLV Silver ETF position decreased by 79.03 tons to 15597.61 tons yesterday, and the SPDR Gold ETF total position decreased by 6.29 tons to 1052.37 tons [3]. - For COMEX Gold on October 22, 2025, the position (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.14% to 1212 tons. For COMEX Silver, the position increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.56% to 15584 tons [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump expressed disappointment with ending the negotiation process in Ukraine. The US government announced a significant increase in sanctions against Russia and cancelled the meeting between Trump and Putin, leading to an increase in overseas risk aversion [2]. - The US Treasury Secretary, Baysent, said that energy prices have declined, and he expects the CPI to decline next month. He also mentioned that "the rise in gold prices is helpful to us" [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold reached a new all - time high of $4070 per ounce, and silver broke through the $50 mark and remained strong. The escalation of Sino - US trade friction and the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year created a resonance, and the continuation of the US government shutdown and data vacuum intensified the demand for hedging and allocation. Although the short - term sentiment is bullish, the risk of high - level fluctuations has increased [1]. - If risk events continue to ferment, the prices of gold and silver are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. London gold is expected to trade in the range of [3900 - 4200] dollars per ounce, and London silver in the range of [48 - 55] dollars per ounce [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports from November 1st and restrict the export of key software. China warned of counter - measures. The market is still worried about the uncertainty of the negotiations around the APEC meeting [2]. - The US government shutdown has entered its third week, and the congressional budget negotiation has reached a deadlock. The Senate plans to resume voting on Tuesday, and the unpaid leave of some federal employees has caused fiscal implementation risks [2]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been strengthened. The CME FedWatch shows that the probabilities of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in October and December are 96% and 87% respectively. New York Fed President Williams reiterated support for further interest rate cuts this year to address labor market weakness [2]. - Trump said that if Russia does not "compromise" soon, he will consider providing "tactical cruise missiles" to Ukraine. Russia warned that this would lead to an "uncontrollable escalation" of the situation, and geopolitical risk aversion sentiment has increased [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - **Gold**: The resonance of trade friction and loose expectations has pushed up the gold price. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the decline of the US dollar, and the US fiscal deadlock jointly support the price. The government shutdown has weakened the availability of economic data, and the market continues to chase the rise in the sentiment of "no data is bullish". If there is a correction due to short - term technical overbought, $4000 is the primary support level, and the increase in price volatility may lead to phased profit - taking [3]. - **Silver**: Supported by the structural tightness of the London spot market, the lease rate remains high, and the physical premium is obvious. The abundant overall liquidity of precious metals and the short - squeeze effect make the increase of silver relatively ahead of gold. If the volatility significantly increases, one should be vigilant about the correction risk after the short - term increase in volatility. In the long - term, it is still supported by global de - dollarization and the recovery of industrial demand [3]. 3.3 Market Performance of Indexes - On October 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2232.76, down 0.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2520.82, down 0.80%; the industrial products index was 2225.76, down 0.58% [43]. - The precious metals index on October 10, 2025: the daily decline was 1.21%, the increase in the past 5 days was 4.99%, the increase in the past month was 11.25%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 43.23% [45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of precious metals have entered an accelerated upward phase in the short term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and opening new long positions at the current price level carries significant risks. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 898 - 950 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 10962 - 12300 yuan/kilogram [4] - The shortage of silver spot in London is difficult to reverse in the short term, which will drive the international silver price to be strong [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 2.45% to 936.72 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 4.22% to 11710.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4126.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 50.73 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.05%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.27 [2] - The shortage of overseas silver spot has driven the silver price to an accelerated upward trend. The one - month implied lease rate of London spot silver has risen to 42.72%. The prices of London Silver and New York Silver both reached new historical highs [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - The shortage of silver spot in London is difficult to be alleviated by the inflow of silver from New York due to the premium. The inventory of COMEX silver decreased from the high of 16531 tons on September 29 to 16179.8 tons on October 13, and the total position of COMEX silver was at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, reaching 172,000 lots as of October 13 [3] Strategy Suggestions - Hold existing long positions, and avoid opening new long positions at the current price level. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 898 - 950 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 10962 - 12300 yuan/kilogram [4] Data Tables - A series of data on gold and silver prices, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and other aspects are provided, including the prices of COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, and T + D contracts, as well as the changes in ETF holdings [5][8] Charts - Multiple charts show the relationship between precious metal prices and various factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volume, open interest, and the near - far month structure of precious metals [10][13][19][20][25][30][32][34][42][44][52][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to move up in the short - term with a step - up trend in the long - term. Silver prices are anchored to gold price trends. The short - term rise in gold is driven by increased short - term risk aversion, enhanced risk - hedging attributes, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The silver market shows slight increases in net long positions and ETF holdings, along with a slight decrease in visible inventories [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.99%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.84% [2]. - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, risk aversion has increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown. The risk of US economic stagflation has risen, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts is being realized. Trump's trade war escalation, the US government shutdown, and the French Prime Minister's resignation have increased market uncertainty. Fed officials' warnings about the labor market and support for rate cuts, along with disappointing employment data and in - line inflation data, have strengthened the bet on further rate cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 rate cuts this year. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. - **Data Summary**: There are detailed data on international and domestic gold prices, basis, spreads, ratios, open interest, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and ETF holdings, as well as the net position rankings of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Gold Exchange [3][4]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices [6]. - **Fundamentals**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - **Data Summary**: There are detailed data on international and domestic silver prices, basis, spreads, open interest, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and ETF holdings, as well as the net position rankings of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Silver Exchange [7][8]. Key Fundamental Data - **Federal Reserve - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the reserve balance interest rate is 4.15%, and the Fed's total assets are $66416.68 billion. M2 year - on - year growth is 4.77%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and US Treasury spreads have changed to varying degrees [9]. - **Other Key Indicators**: There are data on US inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and risk - hedging and commodity - related indices [11][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver are both showing a relatively strong trend. Gold is driven by factors such as the resurgence of the tariff war and various overseas events, while silver is affected by overseas short - squeeze situations and tight spot supplies. The report maintains a positive outlook on the prices of both gold and silver, expecting silver to potentially outperform gold in the medium term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Performance - This week, London gold rose by 2.29%, and London silver rose by 6.63%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.2 in the previous week to 79.1. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.75%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.05% (2 - year 3.52%), and the US dollar index was recorded at 98.82 [3][4]. - After the holiday, Shanghai gold opened higher, reaching a maximum of 921 yuan/gram, hitting a new record high. COMEX silver reached a maximum of 49.965 US dollars, and London silver reached 51.221 US dollars, breaking historical highs [3][4]. 3.2 Price and Spread Analysis - **Overseas Price - Spread**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 17.655 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 49.3 US dollars/ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 2.611 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.12 US dollars/ounce [10][13]. - **Domestic Price - Spread**: This week, the gold futures - spot spread was - 3.82 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was - 23 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 8.14 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 55 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [17][19][23][28]. 3.3 Inventory and Position Analysis - **Inventory**: This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.17 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 53.2%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 9.41 million ounces to 522 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio dropped to 35.1%. Gold futures inventory increased by 5094 kilograms, and silver futures inventory increased by 12.21 tons to 1192 tons [37][39][42]. - **Position**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver increased slightly. The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 1.42 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 289 tons [44][50][52]. 3.4 Core Drivers of Gold - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates returned, and 10YTIPS continued to decline [62]. - The report also analyzed factors such as inflation, retail sales performance, non - farm employment performance, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, inflation surprise index, and the probability of Fed rate cuts [67][70][75][77][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of precious metals fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 4.82%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.22%. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate strongly in the short - term and rise in steps in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, risks such as trade wars and the shutdown of the US government have increased, the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation has been moderate, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has begun to materialize. Events such as the US government shutdown and the resignation of the French Prime Minister have increased market uncertainty, and geopolitical changes in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. The ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. The Fed believes that the risk in the employment market has increased and remains vigilant about inflation. The US PCE inflation data met expectations, strengthening the bet that the Fed may continue to cut interest rates later this year. The market currently expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in October to remain around 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data**: International prices (Comex gold and London gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) all increased. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, ratio, position, and inventory [2]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Data**: International prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) all increased. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, position, and inventory [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets decreased by 21.792 billion US dollars, with a decrease of 0.00%. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) changed, and there were also changes in other key indicators such as the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year - 10 - year), US - Europe yield spread, and US - China yield spread [7][9]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and other inflation - related data changed to varying degrees [9]. - **Economic Growth and Employment**: GDP, unemployment rate, non - farm employment, and other data showed different trends [9]. - **Real Estate Market**: Data such as existing home sales, new home sales, and new home starts in the US real estate market changed [9]. - **Consumption and Industry**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditure, industrial production index, and other data changed [9]. - **Trade**: US export, import, and trade balance data changed [9]. - **Economic Surveys**: ISM manufacturing PMI, ISM services PMI, and other economic survey data changed [9]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world, as well as IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios and the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves, changed [11]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 21.50%, the VIX index decreased by 2.04%, the CRB commodity index increased by 1.27%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate changed [11].