1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall macro - environment is still relatively loose, with a mild slowdown in the employment market and no obvious signs of strong inflation, which is favorable for precious metal pricing [4]. - Platinum and palladium are in a tight - balance pattern. The demand gap for platinum will remain, while the demand gap for palladium is gradually improving [4]. - The news that the EU is preparing to relax the rules on banning internal combustion engine vehicles has boosted the future demand prospects of platinum and palladium, releasing price elasticity [5]. - Platinum and palladium may operate in the context of a tight fundamental situation and a loose macro - environment. It is not recommended to chase high prices, and the strategy of buying on dips along the MA5 daily line is suggested. Also, consider the opportunity to go long on platinum and short on palladium, and keep an eye on options [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Macro - aspect**: This week, multiple important economic data were released, showing a continuous game between economic data and the Fed's policy. The US November non - farm payrolls slightly rebounded, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, reaching a four - year high. Weak PMI data on Wednesday strengthened the expectation of economic slowdown, boosting interest - rate cut trading. The unexpectedly slow CPI data on Thursday only brought a short - term market rally, and then officials questioned the data's authenticity due to the government shutdown. Fed "third - in - command" Williams' hawkish speech on Friday reversed the optimistic sentiment brought by the CPI data, pushing up the US dollar index. The uncertainty of the Fed chairperson's selection also affects the market. Overall, the employment market is cooling moderately, inflation shows no obvious signs of strengthening, and the macro - environment is still loose, which is beneficial for precious metal pricing [4]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: There is limited high - frequency fundamental data for platinum and palladium in the market. From a quarterly and annual perspective, platinum and palladium are in a tight - balance pattern. The demand gap for platinum will remain, while that for palladium is gradually improving [4]. - **News - aspect**: Bloomberg reported that the EU is preparing to relax the rules on banning internal combustion engine vehicles starting from 2035, which boosts the future demand prospects of platinum and palladium and releases price elasticity [5]. - **Futures market**: Due to the impact of news and capital allocation, the prices of non - ferrous metals in the overseas market fell on the evening of December 12, while the price of platinum soared. Affected by this, the domestic platinum price opened high and went higher on the 15th, and finally reached the first daily limit. Subsequently, the trading atmosphere in the market continued to heat up, and the trading volume increased significantly. It reached the daily limit again on the 17th, and the highest price on the 18th was close to the daily limit [5]. - **Trading strategies**: - **Single - side trading**: Platinum and palladium may operate in the context of a tight fundamental situation and a loose macro - environment. It is not recommended to chase high prices. The strategy of buying on dips along the MA5 daily line is suggested. Due to the large price fluctuations and high contract leverage, and the lack of night trading in the domestic market, there is a risk of gap - opening when the domestic market opens. It is recommended to manage positions well [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider the opportunity to go long on platinum and short on palladium [5]. - **Options**: Keep an eye on options [5]. 3.2 Trading and Arbitrage Data Tracking - **Weekly trading data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange**: As of the close on Friday (December 19), the total positions of the PT contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 33,474 lots, a net increase of 22,304 lots compared with the previous week, and the weekly trading volume was approximately 273.94 billion yuan. The total positions of the PD contracts were 14,011 lots, a net increase of 10,548 lots compared with the previous week, and the weekly trading volume was approximately 143.09 billion yuan [24]. - **Spot arbitrage**: - **Platinum**: There are conditions for arbitrage by buying Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts for delivery, with a theoretical profit of 10.76 yuan/gram (compared with - 0.77 yuan/gram last week). There are also conditions for arbitrage by buying London platinum spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts for delivery, with a theoretical profit of 45.98 yuan/gram (compared with 5.09 yuan/gram last week) [27]. - **Palladium**: There are conditions for arbitrage by buying domestic palladium spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts for delivery, with a theoretical profit of 47.93 yuan/gram (compared with 0.97 yuan/gram last week). There are also conditions for arbitrage by buying London palladium spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts for delivery, with a theoretical profit of 58.72 yuan/gram (compared with 0.87 yuan/gram last week) [26][27]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Platinum supply and demand**: - **Supply**: It is expected that in 2025, both supply and demand for platinum will decline. However, due to the different bases and decline rates in 2024, there will still be a supply - demand gap of 26 tons in the platinum market, causing the above - ground inventory to continue to decline for the third year to 93 tons, equivalent to about 4.5 months of demand [30][32]. - **Demand**: The demand structure of platinum is relatively healthy. Although the demand for platinum has increased rapidly in some areas, the demand in the main areas such as the automotive, chemical, and jewelry industries remains relatively stable. In the future, platinum prices may break through further if there is a more severe structural shortage of spot or further digestion of the current above - ground inventory, and market investors believe that platinum will experience continuous high - speed growth in specific areas [32][33]. - **Palladium supply and demand**: - **Supply and demand situation**: It is expected that in 2025, both the supply and demand of palladium will decline. The decline in the demand side is greater than that in the supply side, and there will be a supply - demand gap of 0.5 tons, resulting in a tight - balance state. The demand tension is relatively better than that of platinum [35][36]. - **Inventory situation**: According to WPIC, the above - ground inventory of palladium is estimated to be about 350 tons by 2024, which is the lowest level in more than half a century but still equivalent to 14 months of demand. From the perspective of supply - demand balance, although the palladium price is near the cost line and at the bottom of the cycle, the fundamental factors may provide limited support for the palladium price in the short term. In the future, the palladium price may fluctuate significantly due to factors such as the macro - environment, the linkage with platinum prices, market sentiment, and structural spot shortages [36]. - **CFTC positions**: - **Platinum**: As of December 9, the long positions of platinum asset management institutions in CFTC were 37,401 lots, the short positions were 22,507 lots, and the net long positions were 14,894 lots (a net increase of 4,528 lots compared with the previous period). The long positions of platinum commercial institutions were 16,228 lots, the short positions were 41,547 lots, and the net short positions were 25,319 lots (a net increase of 2,033 lots compared with the previous period) [38][39]. - **Palladium**: As of December 9, the long positions of palladium asset management institutions in CFTC were 7,832 lots, the short positions were 7,851 lots, and the net long positions were - 19 lots (a net increase of 695 lots compared with the previous period). The long positions of palladium commercial institutions were 5,818 lots, the short positions were 7,538 lots, and the net short positions were 1,720 lots (a net increase of 229 lots compared with the previous period) [41][47]. - **Inventory situation**: - **Platinum**: As of December 19, 2025, the total CME platinum inventory was 624,733.09 troy ounces, an increase of 10,171.75 troy ounces compared with December 12. The registered inventory remained unchanged, and the unregistered inventory increased by 10,171.746 troy ounces [48]. - **Palladium**: As of December 19, 2025, the total CME palladium inventory was 189,090.40 troy ounces, a decrease of 139.30 troy ounces compared with December 12. The registered inventory increased by 2,676.286 troy ounces, and the unregistered inventory decreased by 2,815.59 troy ounces [52]. - **Lease rates**: - **Platinum**: The report provides the annualized lease rates for one - month, three - month, six - month, and one - year platinum leases [56][57]. - **Palladium**: The report provides the annualized lease rates for one - month, three - month, six - month, and one - year palladium leases [59][60].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the precious metals market has rebounded significantly following the release of inflation data, with gold prices reaching a two-month high, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [1][5]. - Inflation data for December showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, the lowest level in several months, which was below market expectations of 2.9% to 3.1% [2][6]. - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, was reported at 2.6%, indicating a more significant decline than anticipated, reinforcing the view that inflationary pressures are easing [2][6]. Group 2 - The market structure for gold prices is primarily formed through spot and futures mechanisms, with increased trading activity in the futures market during the year-end period [3][7]. - February gold futures rose by $28.20 to around $4,400, maintaining a crucial psychological level, while March silver futures fell to approximately $66.25 but remained within a high range, indicating no substantial change in the medium-term trend [1][5]. - The technical outlook for February gold futures remains strong, with a key resistance level at $4,433 and support around $4,200, while silver shows a bullish structure with resistance at $70.00 and support near $60.00 [3][7]. Group 3 - The combination of falling inflation, declining yields, and a weakening dollar creates a favorable environment for precious metals [4][8]. - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend for gold and silver, with short-term fluctuations likely to continue, but overall sentiment remains bullish as long as key support levels are not breached [4][8].

受美国通胀低于预期提振，金价抹去了隔夜跌幅上涨，一度触及两个月高位，但最终以微跌收盘。短期 交易者获利回吐导致白银价格走低，但较早前的暴跌有所回升。 新华财经纽约12月18日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价 18日下跌0.23%，收于每盎司4363.9美元。 美国劳工部18日公布的数据显示，截至13日当周，经季节性调整后的首次申请失业救济人数为22.4万 人，较上周修正后的23.7万人减少了1.3万人，符合市场预期。 如市场预期，欧洲央行当日维持利率不变。黄金市场对欧洲央行货币政策决定最初反应波动不大，在经 历广泛获利回吐同时，仍保持着较高的支撑价位。 当天3月交割的白银期货价格下跌2.17%，收于每盎司65.45美元。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国劳工部18日发布数据显示，美国11月份消费者价格指数同比上涨2.7%，为7月份以来最低水平，也 低于市场预测的3.1%涨幅。剔除食品和能源价格后的核心通胀率同比上涨2.6%，为2021年3月以来最低 水平，也低于市场预测的3.0%。 报告符合美国货币政策鸽派立场，引发美联储进一步降息预期。报告利好贵金属，利空美元。 当天发 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 贵金属年末掀涨势，12月18日"铂族兄弟"——铂金、钯金联袂攀新高。 截至12月18日17：30，今年铂金涨幅达117%，最高价触及1995.6美元/盎司，涨幅仅次于白银；"好兄 弟"钯金涨幅达95%，最高价触及1787美元/盎司。 业内人士指出，在现货供应持续偏紧、资金情绪共振等多重因素推动下，贵金属市场的上涨逻辑正在不 断强化。不过，对于铂金、钯金明年的表现，市场判断不一，有分析认为其短线"步子过大"，存在炒作 迹象，明年或面临回调压力。 钯金多合约涨停 12月18日，国内铂族金属市场再度爆发。广期所铂期货主力合约全天呈现单边上行态势，全天呈现强 势，多个合约尾盘强势封板。钯金是当天的主角，其中钯2606、2608和2610涨停，主力合约钯2606报收 476.6元/克；当天铂金虽然没有涨停，但是也维持在高位，铂2606盘中触及549.9元/克，收盘涨5.32%， 报收542.6元/克，两个品种当日再度创新历史新高，成交量也出现明显放大。 国信期货指出，铂、钯期货双双大涨，呈现出资金推动与情绪共振的显著特征。本轮上涨主要由现货市 场供应紧张 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in platinum and palladium prices is driven by tight supply conditions and strong market sentiment, with significant price increases observed in December 2023 [3][6][10]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 18, 2023, platinum reached a high of $1995.6 per ounce, while palladium peaked at $1787 per ounce, marking year-to-date increases of 114% for platinum and approximately 85% for palladium [3]. - As of 20:50 on the same day, platinum and palladium prices retreated to around $1920 and $1680 per ounce, respectively, while platinum jewelry prices exceeded 800 yuan per gram [4]. - Domestic palladium futures saw multiple contracts hit the daily limit, with the main contract closing at 476.6 yuan per gram, and platinum also maintaining high levels [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current price increase is attributed to a combination of tight physical supply, high leasing rates for platinum, and strong buying sentiment in the futures market [6][10]. - The global platinum market is expected to face a supply shortage for the third consecutive year by 2025, with a projected deficit of 850,000 ounces [10]. - Factors contributing to the tight supply include production declines in South Africa and increased demand from the automotive sector, particularly in China and Europe [9][10]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Different institutions have varying outlooks for platinum and palladium prices in 2026. Some, like TD Securities, predict continued strong price increases due to robust automotive demand, while others, such as Heraeus, express caution regarding potential price corrections [11][12]. - Citibank highlights that platinum and palladium have underperformed compared to gold, suggesting potential for price recovery as industrial demand shifts [11]. - Concerns about industrial demand and recession risks may exert downward pressure on platinum prices, despite current market tightness [12].

在黄金和白银之后，铂和钯又加速上涨，成为近期贵金属品种中最耀眼的两颗"新星"。 铂和钯的价格受到供需等因素影响 目前铂和钯的价格走势受到包括供需状况在内的多种因素影响。 对于钯，该专家在受访时认为，基本面趋松在中长期将对钯价形成一定压制，未来重点关注需求端铂钯 替代进程演变。 贵金属"新宠"？铂和钯价格涨势加速 在黄金和白银之后，近期贵金属市场中，铂、钯价格亦水涨船高，涨势进一步加速。 在国内期货市场，以铂为例，12月18日，广期所铂期货主力合约价格再度大涨，当天收盘涨幅高达 5.32%，盘中最高达549.90元/克，再创上市以来新高。今年12月以来，广期所铂期货主力合约价格已累 计上涨24.91%。 另一贵金属钯最近的涨势也十分惊人。行情数据显示，12月18日，广期所钯期货主力合约收盘大涨 6.99%，盘中一度达476.60元/克。今年12月以来，该主力合约累计涨幅高达27.69%。 国际市场上，NYMEX铂期货主力合约价格目前已逼近2000美元/盎司，今年12月以来累计已上涨超过 18%，年内价格已实现翻倍；而NYMEX钯期货主力合约价格今年12月以来累计涨幅亦超过18%，年内 累计涨幅已达90%。 有专 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [8] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - With the growing expectation of continuous monetary easing and the emergence of market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the near term, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 950 yuan/gram and 1000 yuan/gram. Silver has been hitting new historical highs, and the gold-silver ratio has been narrowing. The price of silver is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 14900 yuan/kg and 15900 yuan/kg [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed Governor Waller stated that with a weakening job market and controlled inflation, the Fed still has 50 to 100 basis points of room for interest rate cuts, but no drastic action is needed based on the current economic outlook. Geopolitically, US President Trump ordered a "total and complete blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and labeled the Venezuelan government a "foreign terrorist organization." US and Russian officials are expected to meet in Miami this weekend, and relevant plans are still being formulated [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On December 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 972.50 yuan/gram and closed at 979.72 yuan/gram, a 0.85% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 977.00 yuan/gram and closed at 982.48 yuan/gram, a 0.28% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 14,690.00 yuan/kg and closed at 15,512.00 yuan/kg, a 5.77% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,627,068 lots, and the open interest was 388,994 lots. In the night session, it opened at 15,447 yuan/kg and closed at 15,594 yuan/kg, a 0.53% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 17, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.153%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.672%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions increased by 1,825 lots compared to the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 846 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 350,879 lots, a 9.75% decrease from the previous trading day. On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions increased by 11,227 lots, and the short positions increased by 13,690 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 2,872,967 lots, a 6.50% increase from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,051.69 tons compared to the previous trading day, while the silver ETF holdings decreased by 43 tons to 16,018 tons [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.81 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,455.85 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 63.16, a 4.65% decrease from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 67.90, a 0.02% decrease from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On December 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 49,760 kg, a 28.88% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,320,846 kg, a 24.09% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,200 kg [7].

从黄金、白银，到铂、钯，国内贵金属市场掀起一轮涨价潮。 12月17日，上期所白银期货主力合约大涨超5%，再度刷新历史新高；广期所铂、钯期货主力合约 午后强势拉升，双双封住涨停板，价格均创上市以来新高。放眼全年，现货白银、铂金、钯金今年累计 涨幅分别达到128%、112%、80%，走出了一轮波澜壮阔的牛市行情。 业内人士指出，在宏观宽松预期升温、现货供应持续偏紧、资金情绪共振等多重因素推动下，贵金 属市场的上涨逻辑正在不断强化。其中，白银被认为正经历一轮典型的"逼空式"行情，而铂、钯则在供 应缺口与工业需求支撑下迎来价值重估。 铂、钯期货联袂涨停，三日累计涨幅超16% 周三，国内铂族金属市场再度爆发。广期所铂期货主力合约全天呈现单边上行态势，午后涨幅明显 扩大，尾盘强势封板，收涨7%，报527.55元/克，成交量放大至9.33万手，持仓量增至2.7万手；钯期货 主力合约同样在尾盘涨停，涨幅6.99%，收报455.15元/克。 值得注意的是，过去三个交易日，铂、钯期货连续大涨，其中铂主力合约累计涨幅达到16.70%， 钯主力合约累计涨幅达16.87%，市场做多情绪高涨。 国信期货指出，铂、钯期货双双涨停，呈现出资 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 贵金属年末出现"发烧"行情，实现普遍轮涨。继黄金、白银价格大幅拉涨后，有色商品的大涨"接力棒"传递到了铂金。 12月17日，继前两日大涨之后，国内铂金期货主力合约开盘延续冲高态势，广期所铂金期货主力合约再度触及涨停，上涨7%，最高触及 527.55元/克，为上市以来第二次涨停。国际市场上，NYMEX铂金期货价格突破1933美元/盎司。截至目前，铂金年内价格累计涨幅已达 110%，远超同期黄金64%的涨幅，目前仅次于白银的127%。 铂金年内出现三波上涨 今年以来，NYMEX铂金期货价格累计上涨110%，是继白银后又一贵金属实现翻倍上涨。 交易人士称，这轮铂金价格的涨势受到多重因素的共同驱动，包括现货供应持续收紧、新能源产业政策导向、地缘局势变化。 从价格走势看，11月以来，NYMEX铂金期货价格已累计上涨超20%。拉长周期看，国际铂金价格在6月和9月经历大幅上涨，涨幅分别达到 28%、17%。 卓创资讯分析师黄加奇认为本轮铂金上涨，主要经历了三个阶段。第一阶段是今年5到7月，南非一季度生产面临极端天气、矿体老化、限电政 策等因素，南非一季度铂族金属产量同比下降13%，全球铂金矿端 ...

Core Viewpoint - The platinum group metals (PGMs), particularly platinum and palladium, are gaining market attention as they experience significant price increases, following the recent highs in gold and silver prices [1][4]. Market Performance - Platinum futures saw a strong increase, with the main contract rising over 2% on December 16, following a previous day where it hit the limit up. Palladium futures also rose by 4.73% on the same day, reaching new highs since their listing [1][4]. - In overseas markets, NYMEX platinum futures reached their highest level since 2011 on December 16 [1]. Macro and Fundamental Factors - The recent price surge in platinum and palladium is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic expectations and tight physical market conditions. Analysts note that the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy expectations are a key driver of the price increase [5]. - The Fed's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points and initiate a $40 billion short-term Treasury bond purchase indicates a faster pace of monetary easing, which is expected to boost industrial demand for PGMs [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The platinum market has entered a state of supply-demand balance for the third consecutive year, with limited growth in mining capacity and production disruptions in some regions. Despite structural impacts from electric vehicle developments on traditional automotive catalysts, demand remains supported by increased platinum load requirements, hydrogen energy advancements, and stable applications in industrial sectors [8]. - As of December 12, the one-month leasing rate for platinum reached a high of 14.12%, reflecting tight supply conditions in the physical market [9]. Investment Trends - The recent price increases in platinum and palladium are seen as a rotation of funds within the precious metals sector, as investors seek alternative assets with similar attributes following significant gains in silver [10]. - Analysts suggest that the market's overall positive sentiment towards precious metals reflects a search for relative value and safety margins amid easing expectations and risk aversion [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts indicate a potential divergence in the supply-demand structure for platinum and palladium. While platinum demand is expected to grow steadily due to industrial and investment drivers, palladium may face challenges with a stronger supply relative to demand [13]. - The long-term outlook for platinum suggests that high leasing rates may persist, and prices could rise further once the current consolidation phase ends. In contrast, palladium's market may experience an oversupply due to declining demand from the automotive sector, despite slight increases in other industrial applications [13].