Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel is expected to operate in a narrow - range fluctuation [1]. - Stainless steel prices may fluctuate as there is a game between reality and expectations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 121,310, down 460 from T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel main contract is 12,850, down 5 from T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 84,018, a decrease of 20,580 from T - 1; the trading volume of stainless steel main contract is 153,413, an increase of 54,404 from T - 1 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 121,050, down 350 from T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 946, up 1 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,150, down 50 from T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,870, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Trade Tension**: On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2]. - **Project Progress**: On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% nickel - iron with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per single line [3]. - **Environmental Regulation**: Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), and the responsible deputy minister said fines may be imposed on verified illegal companies and an audit of the entire park will be carried out [3]. - **Policy Change**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supply. The Indonesian government requires mining and coal companies to resubmit the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [4][5]. - **Production Output**: The approved 2025 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) production of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4]. - **Production Suspension**: Due to long - term production losses, all EF production lines of an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park have been suspended recently, which is expected to affect the nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons per month [4][5]. - **Domestic Steel Mill**: A Shandong steel mill started maintenance due to the provincial steel mill's production capacity limit and a 5% annual production reduction target, suspending the delivery obligations under long - term supply agreements signed in August [5]. - **Illegal Mining Crackdown**: The Indonesian President stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0, indicating a neutral view [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on September 4th, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest, and a 0.29% decline in LME nickel. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. The supply side showed stable nickel ore prices, a decrease in nickel ore arrivals last week, and an increase in port inventories. Nickel iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production in September and a reduction in nickel iron inventories. Domestic electrolytic nickel production will increase in September, and export profits have expanded. The demand side showed a decrease in ternary production, an increase in stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. In terms of inventory, SHFE decreased, LME increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat. Overall, the pure nickel fundamentals are loose, with repeated expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about Indonesian unrest, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - For stainless steel, on September 4th, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated at a low level, with an increase in trading volume and a decrease in open interest. The spot market had weak low - price trading, and the basis premium widened. The SHFE inventory increased, and the 300 - series social inventory decreased last week. On the supply side, stainless - steel production will increase in September. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak. At the cost end, the prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome have risen. Overall, the current macro - sentiment has a greater impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost provides support, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Futures Market - On September 4th, the closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared to previous days, with the near - month contract closing at 121450 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the active nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 104,598 lots (- 20,952), and the open interest was 82,558 lots (- 2,171). The closing prices of LME 3 - month nickel contracts (electronic and on - site) decreased, with the electronic - disk closing at 15,236 dollars/ton, down 68 dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 5,254 lots (- 645). The price ratio of Shanghai and LME nickel futures was 7.96, down 0.03 [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The average prices of various nickel products (such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel) decreased. For example, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,450 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel over the Shanghai nickel contract decreased by 50 yuan to 2,050 yuan [2] 3.1.3 Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were stable. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production in September and a reduction in nickel iron inventories. Domestic electrolytic nickel production will increase in September, and export profits have expanded. Demand: Ternary production decreased, stainless - steel mill production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1] 3.1.4 Inventory - SHFE nickel inventory decreased to 21,739 tons (- 121 tons), LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat at 4,100 tons [2] 3.2 Stainless - Steel Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - On September 4th, the closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The trading volume of the active stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 99,009 lots (+ 11,460), and the open interest was 82,425 lots (- 4,439) [2] 3.2.2 Spot Market - The average prices of various stainless - steel products (such as 304/2B coil - trimmed, 304/No.1 coil) decreased in some regions. The low - price trading in the spot market was weak, and the basis premium widened [2] 3.2.3 Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production will increase in September. Demand: Terminal demand is weak [1] 3.2.4 Inventory - SHFE stainless - steel inventory increased to 100,431 tons (+ 127 tons), and the 300 - series social inventory decreased to 622,700 tons (- 3,300 tons) [2] 3.3 Other Information - The US 8 - month "small non - farm" data was 54,000 people, lower than the expected 65,000 people, and the previous value was revised up from 104,000 to 106,000 people. The number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly increased to 237,000, the highest level since June [1] - Centaurus Metals encountered unexpected obstacles in the development of its flagship Jaguar nickel project in Brazil. The company was informed that it needed to upgrade the power transmission to meet the long - term energy needs of the mine. The Jaguar project has 1.2 million tons of nickel content [1]

Group 1 - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) experienced a significant stock price increase of 22% yesterday and continued to rise over 5% in the afternoon today, currently trading at 1.83 HKD with a trading volume of 32.1364 million HKD [2] - Market concerns regarding nickel supply have been heightened due to recent events in Indonesia, although the core conflict is not directly affecting major nickel production areas [2] - Futures analysis indicates that there is an expectation of overall nickel supply surplus by 2025, with improvements in Indonesian nickel ore supply but ongoing policy disruptions [2] Group 2 - Nickel prices are currently supported by emotional market sentiment, but this upward trend may lack sustainability unless the conflict escalates to impact major production areas [2] - Domestic stainless steel demand is relatively strong, providing support for nickel pig iron prices, which are expected to stabilize in the short term [2]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report of Guotai Junan Futures on September 1, 2025, focusing on green finance and new energy commodities including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1]. Group 1: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel is expected to trade in a narrow range based on fundamental logic, with investors warned of potential risks from news. Stainless steel prices are also expected to move in a narrow range [2][4]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,700 yuan, up 710 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,815 yuan, down 35 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 RKAB production in Indonesia is higher than 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were suspended due to losses; Indonesian mining companies must resubmit 2026 RKAB; a Shandong steel mill started maintenance; and Indonesia will crack down on illegal mining [4][5][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The basis of lithium carbonate remains stable, and the range - bound oscillation continues [2][10]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 77,000 yuan, down 1,140 yuan from the previous trading day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 79,628 yuan/ton, down 314 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Chilean government is accelerating a major lithium cooperation deal between Codelco and SQM [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [12]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, the strategy is to short at high prices. For polysilicon, investors should pay attention to market information [2][13][14]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the PS2511 contract for polysilicon was 49,555 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US International Trade Court ruled that the Biden administration's "Southeast Asian solar cell and component import tariff suspension order" was illegal, and retroactive tariffs may be imposed on solar products imported from four Southeast Asian countries [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and it is necessary to be vigilant against multiple potential risks in the news. The stainless - steel price is in a low - level shock due to the weak supply and demand in reality [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the increase in Indonesian quotas is transmitted to the ore price, the overall decline of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively moderate, and the premium margin is temporarily stable. The cash cost of the pyrometallurgical process has decreased by about 2%. The nickel ore contradiction usually eases in the second half of the year, and the willingness of funds to speculate has decreased, which may limit the elasticity of the nickel price. The short - term inventory of the smelting end has not increased as expected, and the production schedule of ternary materials is considerable. The cost curve is still supported by the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical integration in the short term. The weak fundamentals of nickel iron have improved marginally, and the price has recovered due to the marginal decline in inventory. However, the expected production of refined nickel still exerts pressure, and the increase in low - cost integrated supply or equity resource processing supply drags down the upside of the nickel price [1]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,371 tons to 38,566 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 204 tons to 209,544 tons [3]. - **Market News**: There are multiple events affecting the nickel market, such as Canada's potential halt of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, Indonesia's plan to shorten the mining quota period, changes in the RKAB plan, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and Indonesia's plan to crack down on illegal mining [6][7][9]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of stainless - steel supply and demand have significantly converged compared with previous years. The tariff contradiction on the demand side and the weak consumption in the post - real - estate cycle have resonated, and the apparent demand growth rate in July decreased to 2%. After the "de - valuation - de - production" stage from June to July, the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased. The supply in August increased month - on - month by 4%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. The production schedule in Indonesia in August was 420,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The expected production in September has rebounded. Due to the high inventory in the upstream and mid - stream and the cautious procurement of the downstream, there is a lack of short - term upward drivers, and the long - term recovery still depends on the start of the overall macro - inventory replenishment cycle. The short - term profit margin has been compressed, and the cost logic limits the downward space [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 31, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,267 tons, with a half - month - on - month decrease of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. On August 28, 2025, the stainless - steel social inventory was 1,082,956 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81%. China's 14 - port nickel ore inventory increased by 539,700 wet tons to 12.5982 million wet tons [5]. - **Market News**: A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance due to capacity limitations and production reduction targets, which will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coil [8]. Futures Data The report provides weekly key data tracking for nickel and stainless - steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price spreads and premiums [11]. Charts There are a series of charts showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless - steel, and related products [12 - 24].

Core View - Bullish factors include improved stainless steel mill profits leading to increased production, rising new energy vehicle sales boosting demand, strong cost support at the lower end, a falling US dollar index lifting nickel prices, and an improved macro - environment [3] - Bearish factors are high stainless steel inventories, declining demand for new energy ternary batteries suppressing nickel consumption, increasing global nickel ore supply and rising production, and a rebounding US dollar increasing cost pressure [3] - The trading advisory view is that the fundamentals are weak, but the increase in downstream procurement volume leads to significant divergence between bulls and bears [3] Market Data Nickel - The latest values of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, continuous 2, continuous 3) are 120990 yuan/ton, 120990 yuan/ton, 121110 yuan/ton, and 121300 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 0.57%, 1.15%, 1.09%, and 1.09% [4] - LME nickel 3M is at 15190 dollars/ton, up 1.04% weekly [4] - The positions decreased by 16.4% to 92205 hands, trading volume increased by 8.94% to 129831 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.39% to 22013 tons [4] - The basis of the main contract is - 1060 yuan/ton, down 7.83% [4] - The spot prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, and nickel beans are 122850 yuan/ton, 120950 yuan/ton, 121750 yuan/ton, and 123050 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 1.25%, 1.10%, 1.14%, and 1.05% [4] - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 40872 tons, a decrease of 1019 tons; LME nickel inventory is 209676 tons, an increase of 456 tons [4][7] Stainless Steel - The latest values of stainless steel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, continuous 2, continuous 3) are 12850 yuan/ton, 12850 yuan/ton, 12915 yuan/ton, and 12980 yuan/ton respectively, with the main contract unchanged, and continuous 1, 2, 3 up 0.78%, 0.70%, and 0.89% weekly [4] - The trading volume decreased by 22.05% to 121866 hands, positions decreased by 10.48% to 127116 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.47% to 100431 tons [4] - The basis of the main contract is 620 yuan/ton, down 13.89% [4] - The stainless steel social inventory is 928.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 4.6 thousand tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 33111 tons, a decrease of 304 tons [7] Charts - There are charts showing the trends of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures main contracts, stainless steel futures main contract, nickel spot average price, China's refined nickel monthly production, China's primary nickel total monthly supply, domestic social nickel inventory, LME nickel inventory, Philippine laterite nickel ore price, China's port nickel ore inventory, China's nickel - iron monthly production, Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production, battery - grade nickel sulfate average price, nickel - bean - produced nickel sulfate profit margin, China's externally - sourced nickel - sulfate - produced electrowon nickel profit, China's nickel sulfate monthly production, ternary precursor monthly production capacity, China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin, stainless steel monthly production, and stainless steel inventory [9][11][13][15][16][17][20][22][24][26][28][29][31][33]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first half of 2025, adjusted EBITDA was US$159.3 million, slightly above the US$155.7 million recorded in 2024, with profit after tax increasing by 80% to US$25.5 million from US$14 million in 2024 [3][11][42] - Gross profit reached US$114.8 million, up 19%, and operating profit was US$98.7 million, up 12% [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Hangzhou mine produced over 11.5 million wet metric tons, with adjusted EBITDA of US$70.3 million, a significant improvement compared to 2024 [4][16] - RKF operations saw lower EBITDA due to higher costs and ore shortages, despite an improving NPI price [8][12] - HPAL operations performed well, with production above 2024 levels and stable cash costs, resulting in EBITDA margins around US$5,900 per ton [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - NPI prices increased from US$11,290 to US$11,350, while cash costs rose from US$9,716 to US$10,117 due to higher oil prices [13][12] - The combined EBITDA for HNC and Syncreation increased by 20% to 27.7% in 2025 [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on responsible and sustainable mining, with initiatives like the Nickel Industries Foundation for social and economic development in Indonesia [2] - Development of the Sampala project is progressing well, with expectations to host over 1 billion wet metric tons [6] - The company aims to achieve gold status in responsible mining ratings and is working on increasing production capacity at the Hengjai mine [5][19] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's performance despite challenges in nickel prices, highlighting strong growth in the mining sector [42] - The company anticipates further growth with the imminent release of an RKB that requires no CapEx for increased mine sales [42] Other Important Information - The company has deferred payments for E and C totaling US$126.5 million to January and April, allowing for further production and EBITDA [11] - The cathode plant is expected to be commissioned in October or November, with all key equipment fabricated and erected [17][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on debt refinancing and other levers - Management confirmed entering a commitment letter for a US$100 million loan facility to support working capital and is evaluating alternative debt funding options [22][23] Question: Dividend withdrawal reasoning - Management stated that the withdrawal of the dividend is a case of prudent balance sheet management [25] Question: Update on VAT refunds - Management expects the US$110 million VAT refunds within the next six to twelve months and is in dialogue with the Indonesian government [27][28] Question: Timing for environmental study approval - Management expects the RKB approval for the Penguja mine by September and for Sampala by the end of the year [29] Question: Factors for commissioning the cathode plant - Management decided to delay commissioning due to high working capital draw and costs associated with MHP, aiming for October or November [34][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 26, the main nickel contract oscillated within a range, with weak spot - market trading, an expanding basis premium. The supply side saw stable nickel ore prices, increased nickel ore arrivals last week, and tight port inventories. Nickel - iron plants' losses narrowed, with domestic production scheduled to decline in August and Indonesian production to increase, leading to nickel - iron accumulation. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary material production, stainless - steel plant production schedules, and alloy and electroplating demands all increased. In terms of inventory, there were decreases in SHFE, LME, and social inventories, while the bonded - area inventory remained flat. Overall, the pure nickel fundamentals were loose, and with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations fluctuating, nickel prices were expected to oscillate within a range. It was recommended to wait and see [1] - For stainless steel, on August 26, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated within a range, with weak spot - market trading and an expanding basis premium. Inventory decreased in SHFE, and the 300 - series social inventory increased last week. Supply increased in August, while terminal demand was weak. On the cost side, high - ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose. Currently, macro - sentiment had a greater impact. Although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for prices to return to fundamentals, and there was cost support. Therefore, prices were expected to fluctuate with the macro - situation. It was recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Market**: On August 26, the closing prices of SHFE nickel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 120180, 120310, 120720, and 120780 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 88775 hands (- 30404), and the open interest was 109267 hands (- 1070). The LME 3 - month nickel price rose 1.23%. The trading volume of LME 3 - month nickel was 7965 hands [1] - **Spot Market**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 122750 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 120350 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat, with increased arrivals last week and tight port inventories. Nickel - iron plants' losses narrowed, with domestic production scheduled to decline in August and Indonesian production to increase. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profits expanded [1] - **Demand**: Ternary material production increased; stainless - steel plant production schedules increased; alloy and electroplating demands were stable [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE, LME, and social inventories decreased, while the bonded - area inventory remained flat [1] Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Market**: On August 26, the closing prices of stainless - steel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12755, 12840, 12940, and 12965 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 102727 hands (- 53612), and the open interest was 133659 hands (- 8340) [1] - **Spot Market**: Spot - market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded [1] - **Supply**: Stainless - steel production schedules increased in August [1] - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1] - **Cost**: High - ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, and last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 62600 tons (+ 8500) [1] Company News - Eramet's Indonesian subsidiary plans to produce 42 million tons of nickel ore this year, including about 27 million tons of laterite nickel ore mainly for nickel - iron smelters, 3 million tons for its own NPI plant, and 12 million tons of low - grade nickel ore (nickel pyrite) for HPAL projects. This target output is expected to continue for the next year, and the Weida Bay nickel ore reserves can support 22 years of mining, with room to further increase production capacity [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has dropped from around 95% to about 75%. The inflation pressure caused by tariffs is still greater than the pressure of the weakening labor market [3]. - Overseas nickel ore supply continues to be in a loose state, with the price of laterite nickel ore showing signs of softening. The price of ferronickel has stopped rising, and the consumption of downstream stainless steel is weak. The salt market remains popular, but the market's acceptance of price increases is poor. The trading volume in the pure nickel market has picked up [3]. - In the later stage, nickel prices will maintain a range - bound pattern and may be technically corrected. The uncertainty on the macro - front remains high, and the game between inflation pressure and the weakening labor market will continue. The traditional consumer market remains sluggish, and the new energy sector may improve, but it is difficult to determine whether the expectations can be realized. The supply side remains stable at a high level, and the fundamentals are unlikely to improve significantly [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary | Variety | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/18 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 119610 | 120340 | -730 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 14929 | 15151 | -222 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 209748 | 211662 | -1914 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 22552 | 23051 | -499 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2600 | 2200 | 400 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 500 | 400 | 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - Nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 936 | 936 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless Steel Inventory | 88.3 | 87.8 | 0.50 | Tons | [5] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - level**: As of August 16, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 235,000, higher than the expected 225,000. The US manufacturing and service PMI in August were both better than expected. Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a significant downward revision of the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September to around 75% [6]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB prices of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia have declined. The expectation of a loose nickel ore supply remains unchanged, and Indonesian nickel iron plants generally expect the nickel ore price to decline further in late August [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In July, the domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, while the smelter's production schedule increased slightly. The domestic export and import of electrolytic nickel both increased year - on - year. After the import window opened, the imported resources increased significantly, and the spot inventory remained relatively stable [7]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 925.5 yuan/nickel point to 929 yuan/nickel point. In July, China's nickel pig iron production decreased slightly month - on - month. In June, the domestic nickel iron import increased significantly year - on - year, mainly from Indonesia. In July, Indonesia's nickel iron production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. As of August 15, the nickel iron physical ton inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The stainless - steel consumption is still sluggish, and the short - term ferronickel price may peak and then fluctuate around the cost line [8][9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate increased. In July, the production of nickel sulfate metal increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The production of ternary materials also increased. The upstream and downstream inventory days of nickel sulfate decreased. The market for nickel sulfate remains popular, but the terminal market's resistance to high - nickel salts suppresses price increases [9]. - **New Energy**: From August 1 to 17, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 58.0%. The growth rate of new - energy vehicle sales has slowed down in the first and middle ten days of August. The replacement subsidy funds have been allocated, but the implementation of local policies varies, and the demand - side expectation is moderately weak [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel decreased by 1,019 tons compared with the previous period. The SHFE inventory decreased by 499 tons, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,914 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges decreased by 2,413 tons [10]. 3.3 Industry News - Boqian New Materials' subsidiaries plan to invest in expanding the production of ultrafine nickel powder, with a planned construction period of 12 months and an additional annual production capacity of 600 tons each [12]. - Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price for August, which decreased by about 0.1% compared with the first - phase price [12]. - Centaurus Metals plans to make a final investment decision on its Brazilian nickel ore project in the first half of 2026, with an expected investment of $370 million and an annual production capacity of about 20,000 tons of nickel [12]. - Nimy Resources discovered a potential large - scale copper - nickel mineralization in Western Australia, which may strengthen the company's layout in the copper - nickel - PGE exploration field [12]. - Indonesia's nickel ore production from January to July 2025 was lower than the target, with a realization rate of only 69% [12]. - BHP cut its dividend to the lowest level since 2017 and plans to sell its idle Nickel West business [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [14][16].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Nickel is expected to operate in a low - level oscillatory pattern [1]. - Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and realities [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 119,830, down 100 from T - 1; the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract was 12,795, down 25 from T - 1. The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 90,715, an increase of 27,039 from T - 1; the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract was 99,736, a decrease of 50,000 from T - 1 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 120,250, up 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 928, up 1 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,050, unchanged from T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 13,700, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per single line [3]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, and the ministry may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the whole park [3][4]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance [4]. - The approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [4][5]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [5]. - A Shandong steel mill started maintenance due to the 5% annual production reduction target, suspending the delivery of long - term supply agreements signed in August [5]. - The Indonesian President stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received [6]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral view [7].