Globalizer | The Globalizer The Rise of Physical AI You're reading the Globalizer, offering a recap of Citi's leading research and highlighting key topics. This week, we look at the rise of physical AI in industrial markets. We explore the changing risk-reward for equities. Plus more insights from the week at Citi. Embodied Intelligence: The Rise of Physical AI Super-Sector Analysis We expect Physical AI in industrial markets to accelerate in the coming years, with opportunities in the cloud and at the edge ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has been experiencing volatility due to high expectations and positions in the technology growth sector, alongside concerns about the AI bubble and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, leading to a significant pullback in the Hang Seng Tech index by approximately 16.6% from its peak [2] - Despite attractive valuations in domestic consumption and real estate, the recent weakening of fundamentals has hindered consensus among investors, making dividend stocks a preferred choice in the current environment [2][7] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for the Hang Seng Index at 26,000 points, validating this view despite fluctuations in October [2] Market Dynamics - The current market turmoil reflects a disconnect between fundamentals and expectations, indicative of a weakening domestic credit cycle, as evidenced by the peak in private social financing in June and a marginal decline in M1 growth in October [7][8] - The market's oscillation between dividend and technology stocks highlights the ongoing struggle between current fundamentals and future expectations [7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider the credit cycle as a guiding framework for macroeconomic direction and asset allocation, focusing on sectors that align with credit expansion [10][11] - The past two years have seen a trend of "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce assets," with the potential for rapid price increases followed by liquidity shifts to new opportunities [12] Sector Analysis - **Technology Sector**: The AI industry remains a key growth area, supported by domestic policy, but faces challenges due to high valuations and expectations. Short-term focus should be on hardware domestic substitution, while long-term prospects depend on application demand and profitability realization [20][21] - **Domestic Consumption and Real Estate**: Although these sectors have low expectations and valuations, the weakening fundamentals make sustained consensus difficult. Potential short-term trading opportunities may arise with policy catalysts, but caution is advised against "static valuation traps" [17][42] - **Dividend Stocks**: These assets serve as a hedge against weak domestic demand, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Index offering a static yield of approximately 5.8%. However, the range of high-dividend stocks has narrowed, with less than 25% of eligible stocks yielding above 5% [43][45] External Demand and Cyclical Opportunities - The recovery of the U.S. credit cycle may boost global manufacturing, benefiting sectors tied to exports and commodity pricing. Key indicators to watch include U.S. manufacturing PMI and existing home sales [34][37] - The cyclical recovery in external demand may provide short-term trading windows, particularly in the first quarter, as domestic PPI is expected to rise [39][42] Conclusion - The investment strategy should focus on a "barbell" approach, combining dividend and technology stocks while dynamically adjusting weights based on market conditions. External demand-driven cyclical sectors and innovative pharmaceuticals may offer additional flexibility in the portfolio [17][19]

Group 1 - The market is entering a critical layout window at year-end, with a focus on cross-year trends and spring market movements, while domestic demand breakthroughs are key to unlocking potential [1][2][3] - The current market exhibits characteristics of low volatility and slow growth, with a shift in funding structure reshaping pricing logic [3][4] - Investment strategies are recommended to align with industry trends and policy expectations, particularly in sectors like AI, energy storage, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4][5][6] Group 2 - The central economic work conference is expected to align with market expectations, while the Federal Reserve is anticipated to adopt a hawkish stance on interest rates [5][6][7] - The market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation, awaiting new opportunities, with a focus on the upcoming central economic work conference for policy direction [6][7][8] - Key sectors to watch include AI, energy storage, innovative pharmaceuticals, and traditional manufacturing, with a particular emphasis on resource revaluation [4][8][9] Group 3 - The AI industry chain remains a core investment focus, with opportunities arising from adjustments in the sector [9][10] - Areas experiencing supply-demand improvements, such as storage and energy storage chains, are also highlighted for potential growth [9][10][11] - The market is characterized by frequent style switches, with a shift from high-valuation growth stocks to undervalued cyclical stocks and dividend assets [11][12][13] Group 4 - The upcoming central economic work conference is crucial for determining the policy direction for 2026, with expectations for a focus on technology innovation and domestic demand expansion [11][12][13] - The market is likely to experience a spring rally, driven by macroeconomic data and liquidity conditions, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support [38][39][40] - The spring market dynamics are expected to favor small-cap and technology growth stocks as the year progresses [38][39][40]

Group 1 - The market is characterized by a slow bull trend with reduced volatility and improved Sharpe ratios compared to the past, but subjective long positions have limited improvement [1] - The current market structure shows an increase in allocation-type funds, but there is a lack of incremental funds with individual stock pricing power, leading to higher valuation and safety margin requirements for subjective long positions [1] - A significant change in domestic demand is needed to unlock market potential, with recommendations to focus on resource and traditional manufacturing sectors as well as companies expanding overseas [1] Group 2 - December is expected to be a favorable time for "profit-making effects," with a shift in market dynamics from low to high win rates around the Spring Festival and Two Sessions [2] - The average duration of the "spring market" is about 20 trading days, with a focus on sectors with positive earnings forecasts for the upcoming year [2] - Many sectors have already seen adjustments of around 20%, making December a good time to start observing potential investments [2] Group 3 - The cross-year market is supported by easing overseas disturbances and a warming expectation of global liquidity, with a focus on sectors with high growth forecasts for 2026 [3] - Key sectors to watch include AI, advantageous manufacturing, and structural recovery in domestic demand, with an emphasis on policy support and sustainable valuation recovery [3] - The technology sector is expected to lead the market rally, particularly in AI applications and domestic computing power industries [3] Group 4 - December is anticipated to mark the beginning of a cross-year market rally, with a high probability of upward movement following three months of consolidation [4] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise in non-bank financials and sectors influenced by upcoming policy directions from key meetings [4] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is seen as advantageous for capitalizing on the cross-year market [4] Group 5 - The market is expected to experience a cross-year rally, with a focus on technology growth and resource sectors [6] - Key industries to consider include non-ferrous metals, AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The theme of commercial aerospace is highlighted as a significant area of interest [6] Group 6 - The A-share market is entering a critical policy observation window, with expectations of increased risk appetite and a favorable environment for cross-year market positioning [7] - Key sectors include commercial aerospace, AI applications, and military technology, which are expected to benefit from policy catalysts [7] - The focus on industries related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" is emphasized for investment opportunities [7] Group 7 - The cross-year and spring market strategies are highlighted as key focus areas for December, with policy factors being a core driver [8] - The market is expected to transition from value-driven to growth-driven dynamics, with small-cap stocks showing strong performance in recent years [8] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to provide new investment themes if specific industry proposals are introduced [8] Group 8 - The current A-share market is assessed as being in a high-cut-low phase, with expectations of continued volatility until the end of the year [9] - The market's ability to break through the 4000-point level is seen as crucial for future performance, with a need for a transition from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven growth [9] - The technology sector is expected to remain sensitive to market conditions, with a focus on resource sectors as potential winners [9] Group 9 - The market is currently in a "slow bull" phase, with significant room for growth, but short-term volatility is expected due to a lack of strong catalysts [10] - Defensive and consumer sectors are recommended for short-term focus, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are highlighted for mid-term investment [10] - The market is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase, with high-dividend and consumer sectors likely to perform better [10] Group 10 - The foundation supporting the current liquidity-driven bull market remains solid, with potential for improved earnings and capital inflows to extend the bull market [11] - The market may experience volatility due to weak economic data and adjustments in overseas markets, but opportunities for upward movement are expected as policies and funding conditions improve [11] - The focus on clearing capacity and inventory, along with the commercialization of emerging industries like AI, is seen as crucial for market health [11]

打破僵局只能是大超预期的基本面变化，今年是外需和出海，未来可能还是需要内需的重大变化打开市场高 度。在超预期的变化出现前，配置上建议延续资源/传统制造业定价权的重估以及企业出海两个方向。 广发证券："赚钱效应"最好的时间窗，即将打开 每年11月，市场涨跌与基本面相关性最弱，但进入12月，基本面定价的有效性会逐步加强。"赚钱效应"最好的 时间窗，即将打开。每年春季有两个重要时间点：春节、两会。在这期间（春节到两会），市场有很好的"赚 钱效应" ，也就是 "春季躁动"窗口期，平均持续约20个交易日。春节前后，市场从低胜率转向高胜率，从大盘 风格转向小盘风格。 12月到明年1月是春季躁动布局的很好时机，尤其是针对那些年报预告不太会爆雷且明年景气度趋势不错的方 向（年报预告不好的方向，可能最好等到明年1月末布局）。同时考虑截至上周五市场最低点，很多板块调整 幅度已经达到历史上主线品种的平均水平（20%左右），12月可以逐步纳入观察范围。 中信证券：需要内需的变化打开高度 市场呈现出低波慢牛的特征，主要宽基的波动率有所下降，回撤以及夏普比率亦好于过往。但主观多头的体感 改善相对有限，今年以来依旧跑输量化策略，仅略微跑赢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a slight rebound this week, but overall sentiment continues to decline, indicating weak rebound strength and ongoing challenges from resistance levels [1] Market Outlook - Despite potential short-term volatility, the company believes that any downturn could present better investment opportunities [1] - The slow bull market pattern remains unchanged, with expectations for an early spring rally next year under a consensus view [1] Investment Strategy - The company suggests strategically positioning for the year-end market before the key meeting in mid-December to prepare for the cross-year market [1] - Focus areas for investment include technology growth and resource sectors that are currently in favorable conditions [1] Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include non-ferrous metals (copper, silver), AI (communications, computers), new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, Hong Kong internet, and chemicals [1] - Thematic focus includes commercial aerospace [1]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] - A specific company is highlighted as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that are essential for meeting the increasing energy demands of AI technologies [3][7] Investment Landscape - Wall Street is investing hundreds of billions into AI, but there is a looming question regarding the energy supply needed to sustain this growth [2] - AI data centers consume energy equivalent to that of small cities, leading to concerns about power grid strain and rising electricity prices [2] Company Profile - The company in focus is not a chipmaker or cloud platform but is positioned as a crucial player in the energy sector, particularly in nuclear energy infrastructure [7] - It is capable of executing large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects across various energy sectors, including oil, gas, and renewables [7] Financial Position - The company is noted for being completely debt-free and holding a significant cash reserve, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization [8] - It trades at less than 7 times earnings, indicating a potentially undervalued position in the market [10] Market Trends - The company is poised to benefit from the onshoring trend driven by tariffs, as well as the surge in U.S. LNG exports under the current administration [5][14] - There is a growing recognition on Wall Street of this company's potential, as it quietly capitalizes on multiple favorable market trends without the high valuations seen in other sectors [8][6] Future Outlook - The demand for AI is expected to continue growing, with a significant influx of talent and innovation in the field, making investments in AI infrastructure increasingly attractive [12][13] - The company is positioned to profit from the anticipated energy spike driven by AI, making it a compelling investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the digital age [3][11]

Market Overview - November experienced a significant late-month rally, transforming initial market fears into a strong comeback story, showcasing resilience despite early selling pressure [2][6][10] - The broader market showed strength, with almost all major indices closing higher for the month, defying expectations of a potential correction [10][20] AI Sector Impact - The sell-off in early November was triggered by Palantir Technologies' quarterly results, which, while good, raised concerns about AI valuations, leading to a broader decline in AI-linked stocks [3][4][5] - Following Palantir's report, other high-priced AI stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft also faced selling pressure, contributing to a temporary downturn in the technology sector [5][6] Market Resilience - Despite fears of an "AI bubble" and valuation resets, the market demonstrated resilience, with a strong rally in the last trading days of November [7][20] - The rally was attributed to various factors, including easing Treasury yields and improving technical conditions, but most importantly, it reflected the underlying demand for equities [9][20] Sector Rotation - November highlighted a rotation in market leadership, with cyclicals and value stocks gaining traction as tech stocks paused [17][18] - Financials, healthcare, and energy sectors saw renewed interest, while smaller-cap stocks also rebounded, indicating a healthier market tone [17][18] Technical Observations - The Nasdaq 100's failure to close positively in November raised questions, as it had been a leader in previous months, suggesting a potential "Great Mini Rotation" where the index took a breather while other sectors advanced [11][12][18] - Some analysts noted the potential formation of a "head and shoulders" pattern in the Nasdaq 100, which could indicate a shift in market dynamics if confirmed [13][20] Future Outlook - Heading into December, the market momentum appears strong, with expectations of Fed rate cuts and the seasonal "Santa Claus rally" effect potentially supporting further gains [19][20] - The broader market's ability to hold firm amidst uncertainty suggests a strong underlying strength, with bulls remaining in control as long as November's lows are maintained [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the electric power equipment sector, highlighting specific companies for potential investment opportunities [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) emphasizes orderly competition in the lithium battery industry, aiming to curb "involution" competition [1][2]. - The report identifies key companies in various segments, including electric vehicles, PCB, solid-state batteries, and energy storage, suggesting specific stocks for investment [1][2][3]. - The report notes significant growth in the wind power sector, with a total installed capacity increase of 70.01 GW from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.21 GW [4][62]. Summary by Sections Electric Vehicle Sector - Recommended companies include Tianci Materials, Zhuhai Guanyu, Terui De, Xinwangda, and Haopeng Technology, with additional attention on Tianji Co., Duofluor, and others [1]. - The report highlights the structural transformation in the AI market, with major cloud providers becoming the preferred choice for enterprises [2]. Energy Storage Sector - The total bidding scale for energy storage in 2025 reached 95.7 GW/347.19 GWh, with winning prices ranging from 0.3261 to 3.216 CNY/Wh [3]. - Recommended companies in the energy storage sector include Sungrow Power, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and CATL, among others [3]. Wind Power Sector - The report indicates that the newly installed wind power capacity in October 2025 was 8.92 GW, showing a year-on-year increase of 33.53% [4][62]. - Recommended companies in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Daikin Heavy Industries, and Zhongtian Technology [4]. Solid-State Battery Sector - The report mentions the establishment of the first large-capacity all-solid-state battery production line in China, which is expected to enhance the electric vehicle industry's capabilities [60]. - Companies like Enli Power are highlighted for their advancements in solid-state battery technology and production capacity [61]. PCB Sector - The report suggests focusing on companies like Defu Technology and Copper Crown Copper Foil within the PCB segment [1].

Group 1 - Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) is launching a major upgrade to its AI chatbot, aiming to enhance its competitiveness in the consumer AI market [1][3] - The company has introduced a new free app utilizing the latest version of its Qwen large language model, currently available in China with plans for an international version [2][3] - The Qwen App is described as capable of generating a full research report and a polished multi-slide PowerPoint presentation in seconds, marking a strategic shift towards consumer-focused applications [3][4] Group 2 - The move to enhance its AI capabilities comes in response to strong competition in China's AI market, particularly following a price war initiated by DeepSeek [4]