格隆汇2月13日｜知情人士称，部分私募市场巨头正与英国央行商讨引入第三方机构参与其开创性的行 业压力测试数据收集工作，以确保该项目能够满足严苛的时间表。此项测试旨在探究一场严重但可能发 生的全球衰退将如何影响数万亿美元的非上市资产——这些资产在全球金融生态系统中占据着迅速扩张 的版图。两位知情人士称，部分规模最大的机构对其他参与者能否快速提供高质量数据，以及这对汇总 结果可能产生的影响心存疑虑。其中一位人士表示，第三方机构可协助那些需要额外支持的公司收集数 据，并帮助项目按计划推进。另类投资管理公司需在3月16日前提交首批数据。 ...

此次收益率下行紧邻美国最新就业数据公布。周三出炉的美国就业数据优于市场预期，直接降低了投资 者对美联储近期降息的期待。就业市场强劲凸显美国经济韧性，无需降息刺激，而美联储利率政策变动 会影响全球资金流向，进而传导至意大利国债价格，推动其收益率走低。 意大利10年期BTP收益率（意大利10年期国债收益率）下行至3.38%，创下自11月12日以来的最低水 平。这一反映意大利经济前景与融资成本的关键指标走低，核心是市场对全球主要央行货币政策走向的 预判，背后是美国经济数据与欧洲央行政策信号的共同影响。 欧洲市场上，投资者正评估欧洲央行对欧元近期升值的立场。欧洲央行对欧元升值总体持信心态度，未 表现出明显担忧，这稳定了欧洲市场政策预期，也对意大利BTP收益率形成支撑。 市场同时关注一则传闻：被视为鸽派政策制定者的法国银行行长弗朗索瓦·维勒鲁瓦·德·加尔豪，可能早 于预期辞职。鸽派倾向宽松货币政策，其提前离职或影响市场对欧洲央行未来宽松程度的预期，进而作 用于当前市场情绪。 市场当前聚焦当天晚些时候公布的美国消费者价格指数（CPI）数据，其是判断美联储后续政策走向的 关键。CPI数据直接反映美国通胀水平，而通胀是美联储 ...

Group 1: U.S. Economic Overview - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in December 2025, with the control group retail sales showing a negative month-on-month growth, indicating high living costs suppressing consumption among low- and middle-income groups[1] - Non-farm employment rebounded unexpectedly, reversing the weak trend seen at the end of 2025, with private sector jobs supported mainly by education and healthcare, while financial and information sectors continued to decline due to AI substitution effects[1] - The unemployment rate decreased despite an increase in labor participation rate, with a slight rise in hourly wage growth, although the overall employment data may still be overestimated[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-on-month growth remained flat, with food prices slowing down but pork prices turning positive; core CPI continued to rise due to the upcoming Spring Festival[3] - Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an upward trend, with price changes in crude oil and non-ferrous metals causing a divergence in PPI growth across industries, while "anti-involution" policies positively impacted sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries[3] - Real estate transactions remained at a low point, with wholesale agricultural prices declining, and prices for steel and cement slightly decreasing, while upstream prices for coking coal and coking fell, and prices for non-ferrous metals and gold generally declined[3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of State Rubio revealed that nearly half of the countries no longer view the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, marking a significant acknowledgment from the U.S. government about the declining status of the dollar [1][3] Group 1: Dollar's Declining Status - A majority of countries have stopped holding dollar assets as reserve currencies, indicating a shift in global financial dynamics [3] - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.3 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dollar [5] - The weaponization of the dollar and fluctuating U.S. policies have created unease among global central banks, complicating the dollar's role in international trade [5] Group 2: Shift in Asset Preferences - Central banks are increasingly diversifying their reserves to avoid reliance on U.S. debt, with countries like China strategically reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds [7] - If confidence in the dollar wanes, funds will seek new safe havens, with gold being one option, though its limitations prevent it from fully replacing the dollar [9] - The euro is seen as a potential successor to the dollar, but internal complexities within the Eurozone raise concerns among investors [9] Group 3: Future of Currency Dynamics - The current trend of de-dollarization is more about reserve diversification rather than a revolutionary shift away from the dollar [11] - The U.S. government is taking measures to stabilize the dollar's position by seeking control over key resources, such as oil in Venezuela and rare earth elements in Greenland [13] - China's efforts to internationalize the renminbi are progressing, particularly in cross-border transactions and commodity pricing, positioning it as a reliable alternative in specific trade areas [13]

瑞安称，美元和日元"近来无疑失去了部分光环"，而瑞士法郎则"巩固了其作为首选避险货币的地位"。 从去年开始持续到今年，美元、日元和瑞士法郎表现各异，预期不同，如今这三个传统避险货币到底谁才是避险"神话"？ 日本三菱日联银行的货币分析师哈德曼（Lee Hardman）表示，日元和美元的避险吸引力都因政治动荡而"受到削弱"。从长远来看，瑞士法郎被证明是G10 货币中最佳的价值储存币种。 FXTM富拓首席中文市场分析师卢晓旸对第一财经记者表示，2026年伊始，全球外汇市场正处于一个关键转折点。美元在年初虽有短暂回暖，但整体弱势格 局几乎已经确定，是多重因素交织的结果。 他进一步分析道，其次，美联储降息预期调整，去年年底，市场一度预计2026年最高或会降息四次，但随着预期修正为两次，美元在今年年初有所反弹。目 前美元价格已基本消化这一降息步伐预期放缓的变化。CME FedWatch工具显示，6月降息至少25个基点的概率达75%，这将支撑第一、第二季度美元的进一 步走弱。美联储政策转向宽松，结合美国经济增长放缓，进一步削弱美元吸引力。 去美元化加剧 美国总统特朗普2025年加征关税的举动，引发了一场"抛售美国"的浪潮， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant demand for silver in the market, driven by both physical investment and industrial needs, leading to a historical premium in silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [3] - The recent surge in silver premiums is attributed to a supply crisis and depletion of deliverable materials, with analysts indicating that unless smelters increase production significantly during the upcoming holiday, the tightness in supply is likely to persist [3] - The current silver futures trading shows a slight upward trend, with prices fluctuating around 20,600.00 yuan per kilogram, indicating a bullish short-term outlook [1] Group 2 - The silver inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade, exacerbating the scarcity of physical silver and leading to increased costs for industrial procurement [3] - There is a dual engine of demand: strong physical investment demand, particularly from the Shenzhen market, and concentrated industrial purchases for solar panel production, as manufacturers rush to complete orders before the April 1 export tax rebate deadline [3] - The trading volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased to a four-year low, suggesting that investors are reducing positions ahead of the holiday, which may lead to lower volatility in the short term [3][4]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 20352, with an opening price of 21718 CNY/kg and a current price of 20850 CNY/kg, reflecting a 1.77% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was 21720 CNY/kg, while the lowest was 20350 CNY/kg, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver futures [1] - The recent upward movement in silver futures suggests a potential bullish reversal, with a preliminary target set at 25000 CNY/kg, contingent on market conditions [4] Group 2 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is being threatened by political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, who has criticized current Chair Powell and called for significant interest rate cuts [3] - The Canadian central bank has acknowledged that geopolitical issues and threats to the Fed's independence have increased global volatility and uncertainty [3] - The U.S. trade policy is increasingly being used for geopolitical purposes, impacting global supply chains and potentially raising inflation while suppressing demand [3]

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The actions of President Trump are disrupting the previously maintained global order in economics, trade, and security, prompting allies to take action [1] - Financial markets are responding positively, with investors increasing investments in non-US stock markets and energy stocks, as well as showing optimism towards currencies like the Euro and Canadian Dollar [1] - The trend of "American exceptionalism" is fading, with major stock markets and emerging markets expected to achieve double-digit profit growth by 2026 [2] Group 2: European Market Developments - Over 73% of companies in the European Stoxx 600 index that reported Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, compared to 54% in the same period last year [2] - The FTSE 100 index in London has surpassed the 10,000-point mark, rising 5% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1.4% increase [2] - A €600 million European strategic autonomy fund launched by BNP Paribas is focused on defense, industrial resilience, resource independence, and technology, driven by large-scale investment plans in Europe [2] Group 3: Defense and Energy Sector Insights - Defense stocks have surged by 200% since February 2022, highlighting their status as winners amid geopolitical tensions [5] - European energy stocks are nearing their highest levels since 2008, driven by increased focus on critical resources and infrastructure development [5] - The European Union is considering a "European manufacturing" strategy to protect domestic industries, although opinions among member states vary [8] Group 4: Currency Movements - The G10 currencies have shown significant appreciation against the US dollar since Trump announced tariffs, with the Swiss Franc up by 14.8% and the Euro by 9.6% [10]

Economic Trends - The U.S. economy experienced significant fluctuations before the 1980s, with frequent periods of negative growth, indicating an unstable economic environment [1] - Post-1980s, the U.S. economy stabilized, with longer intervals between major recessions, leading to a perception of strength among those born after the 1970s [1] - The dissolution of the Soviet Union led to a massive influx of global capital into the U.S., which was seen as a safe haven for investments until the rise of China post-2008 began to shift capital flows away from the U.S. [1] Capital Flow and Investment Sentiment - There is a growing sentiment among wealthy individuals that the U.S. is in a state of decline, as evidenced by capital outflows, which reflect a loss of confidence in the U.S. economy [3] - The persistent trade deficit in the U.S. has remained largely unchanged since the Clinton administration, indicating underlying industrial decline and economic challenges [3] Market Performance - The U.S. stock market has faced significant downturns, with the S&P 500 index dropping nearly 18% this year, highlighting the fragility of the market [5] - The end of a 41-year bull market in U.S. bonds signifies a broader economic decline, raising questions about the sustainability of a strong dollar [5] Retail Sector Challenges - The retail sector in the U.S. is experiencing severe challenges, exemplified by the drastic decline in stock prices of major retailers, such as Bed Bath & Beyond, which has seen a nearly 90% drop from its peak [5] - The unexpected deaths of key financial figures in the retail industry have raised concerns about the broader implications of economic distress [5] Global Economic Context - The U.S. may struggle to maintain its economic strength by exploiting European and Asian markets, as these regions are facing their own financial difficulties [6] - Recent protests in European cities reflect growing public discontent with economic conditions, which could lead to significant political changes [7] - The global economy is facing a crisis, with only a few countries, such as Russia and China, showing relative economic stability, indicating a potential widespread impact from global economic turmoil [8]

这两个系列的央行票据将于2026年2月25日进行投标，2月27日交收。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:邱丽芳】 金管局介绍，总值人民币300亿元的3个月期人民币央行票据于2026年5月29日到期付息。总值人民 币200亿元的1年期人民币央行票据到期日为2027年2月27日，于2026年8月27日和2027年2月27日各付息 一次。 新华社香港2月13日电（记者刘英伦）香港金融管理局（金管局）13日宣布，中国人民银行将通过 金管局的债务工具中央结算系统发行人民币央行票据，分为3个月期和1年期。 ...