Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's economy is projected to grow at 4.7% in 2025, supported by a strong labor market and sustained consumer spending, despite external pressures from geopolitical factors affecting key exports [2][6]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Malaysian economy is expected to maintain resilience with a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5.5% set for the 13th Malaysia Plan (2026-2030), driven by sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and tourism [3][12]. - The unemployment rate has dropped to a ten-year low, contributing to robust consumer spending [2][6]. - The overnight policy rate (OPR) is likely to remain at 2.75% through the end of 2025 and early 2026, as current monetary policy supports economic growth [12][19]. Group 2: Capital Markets - The FBMKLCI index underperformed compared to regional markets in 2025, primarily due to weak earnings growth expectations and a lack of new tech IPOs [4][23]. - Despite the Malaysian ringgit appreciating by 8.8% against the US dollar in 2025, the market valuation remains below the ten-year average, indicating potential for upward movement [4][32]. - Foreign capital inflow may provide support for the market, as the ringgit's strength enhances the attractiveness of Malaysian assets [36][40]. Group 3: Investment Themes - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors driven by AI capital expenditure, subsidies, and policy initiatives, including: - **Electrical and Electronics**: The sector is expected to benefit from a doubling of electronic exports to 1 trillion ringgit by 2030, supported by the national semiconductor strategy [5][48]. - **Digital Infrastructure**: Major investments in data centers by tech giants are anticipated to boost demand in the power and construction sectors [5][48]. - **Modern Retail**: Government subsidy programs are expected to enhance consumer spending and support retail growth [5][48]. - **Tourism Services**: The 2026 Malaysia Tourism Year aims to attract 47 million visitors and generate 329 billion ringgit in tourism revenue, with government support for infrastructure and promotional activities [5][49].

Core Viewpoint - Hut8 has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising over 5% on Tuesday and accumulating a 37% increase over three trading days, currently priced at $52.90. This surge is attributed to an upgrade in target price by StoneX's Benchmark to $85, the highest on Wall Street [1] Group 1 - The upgrade in target price is based on Hut8's recent agreement to lease its River Bend data center's 245 MW capacity to Fluidstack for a 15-year term [1] - Analyst Mark Palmer highlighted that this transaction features superior economic terms compared to similar deals, providing long-term, investment-grade guaranteed cash flow [1] - The deal includes embedded expansion options across three counterparties: Anthropic, Fluidstack, and Google (GOOGL.US), positioning Hut8 as one of the most advantageous providers of AI/high-performance computing infrastructure in the public market [1]

目录 CONTENTS 01 AI浪潮来袭，撬动有色 需求的下一个支点？ 算力金属：铜铝在AI电力上 的应用前景展望 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 杨 蕤 （联系人）从业资格号：F03151404 yangrui4@gtht.com 日期：2025年12月23日 03 全球数据中心市场发展 概况 02 AI算力中心对铜铝需求 影响 04 美国电力缺口测算与金 属需求分析 AI浪潮来袭，撬动有色需求 01 的下一个支点？ 当下AI商业化行至何处？ 2003年-2024年按地理区域划分的人工智能模型数量 中国AI大模型性能已追赶上美国，中美差距不断缩小 资料来源：Epoch AI，《2025年人工智能指数报告》，Artificial Analysis，国泰君安期货研 ...

龙虎榜机构热股 今天机构龙虎榜上榜40只个股，净买入22只，净卖出18只。当日机构买入最多的个股前三位是：神农种 业（3日4.85亿）、多氟多（2.1亿）、海南海药3日2.04亿）。 多氟多 龙虎榜显示，今日4家机构净买入2.1亿。 12月23日，中国有色金属工业协会锂业分会发布2025年11月份锂行业运行情况。11月份，国内碳酸锂价 格中枢明显抬升。电池级碳酸锂价格从月初的81000元/吨上涨至月末的92000元/吨，上涨13.58%；碳酸 锂期货主力合约收盘价从月初的82280元/吨上涨至月末的96420元/吨，上涨17.19%，月末期现价差为 4420元/吨。 龙虎榜知名游资 一、电网 谷歌母公司Alphabet宣布将以47.5亿美元（约330亿人民币）收购数据中心能源供应商Intersect。Intersect 专注于数据中心电力解决方案，凭借高可靠性供电技术服务全球多个大型数据中心，其核心业务涵盖电 力供应优化、能源效率提升及应急供电保障等，恰好匹配AI数据中心对电力稳定性的极致需求。 保变电气 个股龙虎榜 中能电气 个股龙虎榜 二、液冷服务器 英维克 个股龙虎榜 同飞股份 此外，据美国太平洋天然气 ...

Group 1 - The company has launched a full lifecycle service for liquid-cooled data centers, including self-developed liquid cooling products, and has created benchmark server and liquid cooling system decoupling projects for clients like China Mobile [2] - The company has completed liquid cooling data center transformations for leading internet companies [2] - The company has partnered with Muxi Co., Ltd. to introduce high-density liquid cooling computing PODs, with specific projects already implemented in intelligent computing scenarios, focusing on core technology solutions for high-performance computing needs [2] Group 2 - The company aims to collaborate with more partners to build a liquid cooling intelligent computing center ecosystem, promoting green and low-carbon development in the intelligent computing center industry [2]

美国商业地产投资的底层逻辑正在被人工智能热潮重塑，这一趋势虽然为投资者带来了巨额潜在回报， 但也使其投资组合以前所未有的程度暴露在单一行业的风险之下。 据《华尔街日报》23日援引美国人口普查局的数据报道，数据中心建设支出最早有望在明年超过写字楼 建设支出。在AI需求的推动下，数据中心的投资回报率已领跑市场，据美国房地产投资受托人全国委 员会数据，该类资产去年的回报率高达11.2%，除活动房屋外，表现优于所有其他房地产板块。 这种狂热的建设浪潮正通过惊人的资金投入体现出来。房地产服务公司JLL预测，2025年至2030年间， 北美地区的新建数据中心规模可能达到1万亿美元。由于急需扩充算力，科技巨头们正改变策略，从自 建转向租赁，仅甲骨文一家公司目前的未来租赁承诺就高达2480亿美元。 然而，这种转变引发了市场对"AI泡沫"及其对实体资产影响的担忧。与2000年互联网泡沫破裂时商业地 产相对稳健的表现不同，如今的房地产业与科技行业的捆绑程度已达到历史峰值。随着投资者押注AI 技术将产生万亿美元级的新收入，一旦需求出现回调或建设交付不及预期，风险敞口大增的地产基金恐 将面临严峻考验。 万亿美元基建潮与写字楼的衰退 ...

Core Insights - The report from China Merchants Securities highlights a surge in data center construction driven by computing power, with North America and China identified as the key growth regions for global data center expansion [1][2] - North American AI giants and Chinese internet companies are the primary drivers of this expansion, with capital expenditures expected to rise significantly [1] - The report anticipates a rebound in domestic demand in China after a temporary slowdown due to restrictions on the import of computing power cards [1] Demand Side - The construction boom in data centers is primarily fueled by the demand for computing power, leading to a significant increase in orders for companies within the industry [1] - Capital expenditures for North American leading companies are projected to increase from $24.1 billion in Q2 2023 to $76 billion by Q3 2025, while Chinese major firms are expected to reach a peak of 77.2 billion yuan in Q4 2024 [1] - The electricity demand from data centers in the U.S. is expected to account for 6.7%-12% of total electricity demand by 2028 [1] Supply Side - North America faces challenges such as aging power grids and outdated generation equipment, which are exacerbated by energy transition issues, leading to increased electricity prices [2] - In China, the main constraints are the reduction in imports of computing power cards and overseas equipment, making domestic substitution crucial [2] - The supply-demand dynamics in China are expected to shift towards demand-driven by 2026, while energy constraints in North America are likely to persist [2] Key Investment Directions - In the gas turbine segment, focus on upstream components (e.g., Yingli Co., Ltd.), HRSG component companies, domestic substitution targets (e.g., Shanghai Electric), and terminal service providers (e.g., Jereh Group) [3] - In the diesel generator segment, domestic companies are expected to benefit from delivery speed advantages, with attention on domestic substitution (e.g., Weichai Heavy Machinery) and overseas expansion (e.g., KOTAI Power) [3] - In the cooling segment, the increase in single rack power is driving the shift of liquid cooling from "optional" to "essential," leading to a significant rise in mechanical equipment spending [3]

Core Insights - Global data center investment reached nearly $61 billion by the end of November, surpassing last year's $60.8 billion, marking a new historical high driven by the demand for computing power fueled by artificial intelligence [1] - The current investment wave in data centers is described as just the tip of the iceberg, with the majority of over 100 related transactions occurring in the United States, followed by the Asia-Pacific region [2] - S&P Global forecasts that global data center investment demand could exceed $900 billion by 2029, with significant debt financing from tech giants like Meta, Google, and Amazon to support infrastructure needs [3][4] Investment Trends - The data center construction is experiencing a "craze," with a notable increase in investment transactions, particularly in the U.S. and the Middle East, as wealthy Gulf nations aim to position themselves as global AI hubs [2] - Debt issuance related to data centers has reached $182 billion this year, nearly doubling from last year's $92 billion, indicating a strong reliance on external financing by major tech companies [3] Operational Challenges - Data center operators face difficulties in securing long-term, reliable users for AI infrastructure, often requiring long-term contracts (10-15 years) to ensure financial stability [5] - Users are hesitant to commit to long-term leases due to uncertainties in technology development, leading to demands for early termination clauses to mitigate risks [6] - Delays in construction due to supply chain issues, labor shortages, and regulatory approvals can lead to financial risks for operators, who may have to accommodate user requests for contract terminations [6]

过去，大型科技公司往往依赖内部现金流，但由于全球借贷成本低廉且投资者需求强劲，如今这些大型企业越来越多地转向债务融资。 随着全球人工智能军备竞赛愈演愈烈，即便是现金流充裕的科技巨头，也不得不通过大量举债来为相关投资提供资金，这推升了今年全球债务发行创历史新 高。 过去三个月，甲骨文股价累计跌幅约40%。由于市场担忧甲骨文为人工智能项目融资而疯狂举债，银行和投资者持续进行大量对冲操作，导致该公司五年期 信用违约互换价格（CDS）也面临打破2008年创下的纪录的风险。 据Dealogic的最新数据，截至12月第一周，今年全球科技公司发行的债券总额已达4283亿美元，规模空前。其中，美国公司发行了3418亿美元债务，欧洲和 亚洲科技公司分别发行了491亿美元和330亿美元债务。 过去，大型科技公司往往依赖内部现金流，但由于全球借贷成本低廉且投资者需求强劲，如今这些大型企业越来越多地转向债务融资。另一方面，技术的加 速迭代也迫使企业不断对新技术进行投资。 就在12月19日，与谷歌公司相关的某数据中心开发商正计划发行12.8亿美元、五年期的垃圾债券（高收益债），为项目进行部分融资，债券的定价收益率预 计约7.25%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on investment opportunities in Asia, particularly in technology and innovation sectors, suggesting a barbell strategy that balances high dividend stocks with tech innovation champions [22][5]. Core Insights - Innovation, particularly driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI), is identified as the main engine for global economic growth and earnings growth in 2026, with a focus on the most innovative countries, primarily the US and Asia [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of diversifying investment themes to manage risks associated with high correlation among tech-focused investments, suggesting a mix of Asia-focused themes and income-oriented opportunities [8][17]. Thematic Investment Strategy - The report advocates for a thematic investment strategy that transcends traditional sector and geographic classifications, focusing on long-term trends such as Disruptive Technologies, Evolving Society, and Climate Action [12][15]. - It introduces new themes based on short-term forces, such as 'Asia's Data Centre Boom' and 'M&A and Shareholder Value Creation', reflecting the dynamic nature of the investment landscape [16]. High Conviction Themes - The report identifies four high conviction themes in Asia: 1. Asia's Data Centre Boom 2. China's Innovation Champions 3. Power Up Asian Shareholder Returns 4. High Quality Asian Credit [23][22]. Asia's Data Centre Boom - Asia Pacific is projected to have the fastest build-out of data centres by 2030, driven by strong government support, competitive energy costs, and high local demand for digital services [31][25]. - The region's renewable energy infrastructure and cost advantages position it favorably compared to the US and Europe in meeting the energy requirements of data centres [32][50]. China's Innovation Champions - China's AI computing power is expected to double by 2025 and double again by 2027, driven by significant investments and supportive government policies [53][56]. - The report focuses on national champions across the AI value chain, highlighting the rapid growth of China's AI public cloud market [53][60]. Power Up Asian Shareholder Returns - The report notes that corporate governance reforms in Asia are expected to enhance shareholder returns, with higher dividend payouts projected to improve return on equity (ROE) in the region [65][37]. - The Singapore government's initiatives to improve governance and shareholder returns are highlighted as key drivers for investment opportunities [63][64]. High Quality Asian Credit - The report emphasizes the attractiveness of Asian investment-grade (IG) bonds, particularly in China and India, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics and expected interest rate cuts [75][76]. - Asian IG bonds are projected to offer attractive yields, benefiting from strong local investor demand and global diversification flows [38][76]. Disruptive Technologies - The report identifies two high conviction themes under Disruptive Technologies: Aerospace and Security, and Evolving AI Ecosystem, highlighting the significant investments in digital infrastructure and the growing demand for AI capabilities [84][83]. - The evolving AI ecosystem is driving substantial investments in data centres and cloud computing capacity, with a projected market growth from approximately USD 302 billion in 2023 to USD 622 billion by 2030 [111][116]. Climate Action - The report outlines the urgent need for renewable energy sources driven by rising energy demands from AI applications, with significant investments expected in clean energy technologies [121][122]. - The transition to renewable energy is seen as a strategic investment opportunity, with a focus on energy security and biodiversity management as key themes [130][132].