Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall financial and commodity futures markets are affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals, showing different trends and outlooks in various sectors. For example, in the stock index futures market, the index is affected by news and has short - term fluctuations; in the bond market, the short - term trend of treasury bond interest rates is expected to be "bounded above and below"; in the precious metals market, gold has long - term support but short - term fluctuations [2][7][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the A - share market opened lower and then strengthened. Consumption stocks became popular, while high - dividend stocks declined. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged. It is recommended to wait and see, and try to go long on the CSI 1000 index in the 5800 - 5900 range [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The funds were balanced and loose, and the treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly. It is expected that the short - term treasury bond interest rates will fluctuate within a certain range. It is recommended to conduct interval band operations, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract, and there may be opportunities to steepen the curve [6][7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: After the "black swan" event overseas during the Dragon Boat Festival, the market returned to rationality, and precious metals declined. Gold has long - term support but short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold options to earn time value when volatility rises [9][11][12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The July quotation of CMA opened higher, and the futures market rebounded after bottom - hunting. The overall attitude is cautiously bullish, and it is recommended to go long on the main contract at low prices [13][14]. Commodity Futures - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The weak driving force continues, and the "strong reality" may not last. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [14][17][19]. - **Zinc**: The supply increase is less than expected, which supports the price. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes. The short - term view is oscillatory, and the main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [19][20][22]. - **Tin**: There is an expectation of supply restoration, and the tin price continues to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [22][23][24]. - **Nickel**: The market is calm, and the fundamentals change little. The short - term is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [24][26][27]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is weak, and there are still contradictions between supply and demand. The short - term is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [28][30][31]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is weakly stable, and the fundamental logic has not changed. The short - term is expected to be weak, and the main contract reference range is 56000 - 60000 [31][32][34]. - **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The apparent demand has peaked, and the cost has decreased, leading to a significant decline in steel prices. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias [35][37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output has declined, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range is 700 - 745 [39][41]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and there may be further cuts. It is recommended to stop profiting on short positions of the 2509 contract and consider the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [42][44]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is weak, and the price may continue to decline. It is recommended to stop profiting on short positions of the 2509 contract and consider the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [44][46]. - **Silicon Iron**: Large factories in Ningxia have resumed production, and the cost may still decline. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [47][49]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The shipment from Groote Eylandt has resumed, and the supply pressure still exists. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [50][52][53]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Meal Products**: CBOT is weak again, and the two meals are oscillating. The two meals are expected to maintain an oscillatory structure, and the main contract of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2900 - 3000 [54][56]. - **Pigs**: After the festival, the demand is weak, and the spot price is under pressure. The market lacks upward drive, and it is necessary to pay attention to the support at around 13500 [57][58][59]. - **Corn**: Affected by the weak wheat price, corn opened high and closed low. In the short term, it will maintain an interval oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the wheat market and policy releases [60][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific investment suggestions are given for different sectors: - **Financial Sector** - **Gold**: Short - term market in a multi - empty game, gold remains in a volatile pattern [13]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. - **Treasury Futures**: The strategy of buying on dips and holding for gains is still applicable [22]. - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - **US Stock Index Futures**: US stocks are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to ongoing tariff risks [29]. - **Commodity Sector** - **Black Metals** - **动力煤**: Coal prices may resume a downward trend if replenishment slows [31]. - **铁矿石**: There is still some downward space for iron ore prices after the pressure is realized [32]. - **螺纹钢/热轧卷板**: Adopt a weak - thinking approach in the near term and hedge on spot price rebounds [44]. - **农产品** - **豆油/菜油/棕榈油**: Palm oil is expected to remain volatile, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered; rapeseed oil may experience a significant decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [35]. - **豆粕**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile; the basis of domestic soybean meal spot will remain under pressure [38]. - **玉米淀粉**: CS07 - C07 may maintain a low - level volatile pattern [40]. - **玉米**: Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - **有色金属** - **多晶硅**: Consider long positions on far - month contracts at low prices, and pay attention to position management for left - side building [48]. - **铅**: Short - term observation is recommended, and start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - **锌**: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices in the short term, and consider long - short option opportunities; maintain a long - short spread strategy in the medium term [53]. - **工业硅**: Close short positions; pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [55]. - **碳酸锂**: Do not chase short positions at the current level; shift short positions to other months when the spread is appropriate [57]. - **铜**: Continue to observe the changes in the Shanghai copper structure; the disk is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to observe [61]. - **镍**: Pay attention to Sell Put opportunities [64]. - **能源化工** - **原油**: The short - term continuous rebound drive is weak [66]. - **碳排放**: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [68]. - **烧碱**: The downward space of the 09 contract is limited [70]. - **纸浆**: The disk is expected to be volatile [72]. - **PVC**: The disk may be volatile and weak [73]. - **PX**: Short - term volatility is weak, and try long positions in the medium - long term [77]. - **PTA**: The price is expected to correct marginally in the short term [79]. - **尿素**: Treat it as volatile in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [81]. - **瓶片**: Consider building long positions on processing margins at low prices [84]. - **苯乙烯**: The styrene - crude oil spread is expected to be weak and volatile, and the absolute price depends more on macro - guidance [87]. - **纯碱**: Maintain a view of shorting at high prices in the medium term [88]. - **浮法玻璃**: The spot price and disk are difficult to improve before the inventory of original sheet manufacturers is substantially reduced [90]. - **航运 Index** - **集装箱运价**: The probability of the freight rate center rising is still high; pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips [91]. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the financial and commodity markets. In the financial market, inflation control by the Federal Reserve, employment data, and trade policies are the key factors affecting the trends of various financial products. In the commodity market, factors such as supply and demand, seasonal changes, and policy adjustments have significant impacts on commodity prices. Overall, most markets are expected to be volatile, and different investment strategies are recommended according to the characteristics of each market. 3. Summary by Catalog 1. Financial News and Comments - **宏观策略（黄金）** - **News**: Fed official Bostic said there is still a long way to fight inflation, and there may be a rate cut this year depending on economic conditions; US April JOLTs job openings were 7.391 million, higher than expected [12][13]. - **Comment**: Gold prices are in a volatile pattern. The lack of a breakthrough in the upward movement is due to factors such as the higher - than - expected number of job openings and the hawkish stance of Fed officials [13]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The short - term market is in a multi - empty game, and gold remains in a volatile pattern [13]. - **宏观策略（股指期货）** - **News**: During the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025, UnionPay and NetsUnion processed payment transactions with an amount 3.4% higher than the previous year; the State Council Premier met with the Japanese trade delegation; the Ministry of Commerce launched the "Service Consumption Season" activity [14][15][16]. - **Comment**: The market maintained a high risk preference after the holiday, with a significant seesaw effect and a sharp rise in micro - cap stocks [17][18]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. - **宏观策略（国债期货）** - **News**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month; the central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [20][21]. - **Comment**: The foundation for economic fundamental recovery is not solid, but the bond market's reaction to fundamental data is dull. There are still short - end carry problems and market negative disturbances [21]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The strategy of buying on dips and holding for gains is still applicable [22]. - **宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)）** - **News**: Fed理事Cook said tariffs may exacerbate inflation and weaken employment; the South Korean presidential term of Lee Jae - myung officially began; the US Trade Representative's Office reminded trading partners of the end of the tariff suspension period [23][24]. - **Comment**: The US tariff negotiation needs to be accelerated, and the trend of Trump's tariff policy change remains unchanged. The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - **宏观策略（美国股指期货）** - **News**: The US raised the import steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% (25% for the UK); Fed official Bostic said the central bank can be patient under tariff uncertainties; US April JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased [26][27][28]. - **Comment**: The unexpected increase in job openings eases concerns about economic downturn, but the employment market still shows signs of weakness. US stocks are expected to be volatile [28]. - **Investment Suggestion**: US stocks are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to ongoing tariff risks [29]. 2. Commodity News and Comments - **黑色金属（动力煤）** - **News**: Since April 2025, China's coal production capacity has continued to be released, and coal imports have decreased [30]. - **Comment**: Coal prices have stabilized slightly due to power plant replenishment. If replenishment slows, coal prices may resume a downward trend [30]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Coal prices may resume a downward trend if replenishment slows [31]. - **黑色金属（铁矿石）** - **News**: The OECD lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [32]. - **Comment**: The fundamentals of iron ore are seasonally weak, and there is pressure on port inventories to accumulate. There is still some downward space for prices [32]. - **Investment Suggestion**: There is still some downward space for iron ore prices after the pressure is realized [32]. - **农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油）** - **News**: India's palm oil imports in May are expected to increase by 87% to 600,000 tons; Canada's Prime Minister hopes China will cancel tariffs on Canadian agricultural products [33][34]. - **Comment**: Palm oil prices are supported by improved demand but lack continuous upward momentum; rapeseed oil prices may decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [34]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Palm oil is expected to remain volatile, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered; rapeseed oil may experience a significant decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [35]. - **农产品（豆粕）** - **News**: The soybean planting area in Mato Grosso in the 25/26 season is expected to increase by 1.67%; port soybean inventories and oil - mill soybean meal inventories continue to rise [36][37][38]. - **Comment**: The first US soybean good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than expected, but there is no short - term speculation theme. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure continues to increase [38]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile; the basis of domestic soybean meal spot will remain under pressure [38]. - **农产品（玉米淀粉）** - **News**: The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong are negative [39]. - **Comment**: Starch losses continue to expand, but the supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally. The regional spread may decline slightly after large - scale wheat substitution [39]. - **Investment Suggestion**: CS07 - C07 may maintain a low - level volatile pattern [40]. - **黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板）** - **News**: The auto - dealer chamber of commerce called for抵制 "price war" competition; China's heavy - truck sales in May were 83,000 units [41][43]. - **Comment**: Steel prices are weakly volatile. The trading logic is still dominated by weak demand expectations, and the negative feedback in the industrial chain still exists [43]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a weak - thinking approach in the near term and hedge on spot price rebounds [44]. - **农产品（玉米）** - **News**: The national average corn price on June 3 increased by 0.19% from the previous trading day [45]. - **Comment**: Spot prices are slightly stronger, while futures prices decline slightly. Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - **有色金属（多晶硅）** - **News**: The national new - energy grid - connected consumption situation in April 2025 was announced; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 1,100 lots [46][47]. - **Comment**: The disk may show a reverse - spread logic, but whether the structure can completely turn to contango is uncertain. The supply - demand situation in June is expected to improve, but the market is still affected by factors such as enterprise production and downstream inventory [47]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Consider long positions on far - month contracts at low prices, and pay attention to position management for left - side building [48]. - **有色金属（铅）** - **News**: On June 2, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $22.17 per ton; SMM lead - ingot social inventories increased [49]. - **Comment**: The domestic lead - concentrate supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The lead price is in a short - position pattern, but the short - selling profit - loss ratio is not good. Pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Short - term observation is recommended, and start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - **有色金属（锌）** - **News**: As of June 3, SMM seven - region zinc - ingot inventories increased; on June 2, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $26.08 per ton [51][52]. - **Comment**: The zinc price declined with weakening macro - sentiment. The downstream demand is expected to weaken in June, and the supply is expected to increase. The disk is expected to be short - biased [52]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices in the short term, and consider long - short option opportunities; maintain a long - short spread strategy in the medium term [53]. - **有色金属（工业硅）** - **News**: The industrial silicon production in May 2025 was 307,700 tons [54]. - **Comment**: Some large factories in Xinjiang may suspend their resumption plans. The demand is not significantly improved. The spot price may bottom out, but the futures price is more affected by sentiment [54][55]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Close short positions; pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [55]. - **有色金属（碳酸锂）** - **News**: Longpan Technology signed a sales contract for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials worth over 5 billion yuan [56]. - **Comment**: The monthly spread strengthened during the decline last week. Pay attention to the stability of the spot basis and the rhythm of warehouse - receipt generation [56]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Do not chase short positions at the current level; shift short positions to other months when the spread is appropriate [57]. - **有色金属（铜）** - **News**: Teck Resources' Chilean copper mine will be shut down for about a month; Chile's copper production in April decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year; Panama approved the maintenance plan for First Quantum's copper mine [58][59][60]. - **Comment**: The market has different views on the macro - situation. The domestic inventory may accumulate weakly, while the LME inventory is expected to decrease. The disk is expected to be volatile [61]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Continue to observe the changes in the Shanghai copper structure; the disk is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to observe [61]. - **有色金属（镍）** - **News**: PT Bumi Mineral Sulawesi signed a nickel - matte sales agreement; Vale signed a nickel - mine exploitation agreement; LME nickel inventories increased on June 3 [62][63][64]. - **Comment**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The nickel - ore market is stable, and the nickel - iron price has risen slightly. The disk has support below but lacks upward drive [64]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to Sell Put opportunities [64]. - **能源化工（原油）** - **News**: The US API crude - oil inventory decreased in the week ending May 30 [65]. - **Comment**: Oil prices are volatile and rising. Geopolitical risks support oil prices, but the gasoline inventory has increased, and the peak - season demand needs to be observed [65]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The short - term continuous rebound drive is weak [66]. - **能源化工（碳排放）** - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration encouraged key energy - consuming units to use green electricity [67]. - **Comment**: The policy will promote the development of green - electricity consumption and the green and low - carbon transformation of the power system [67]. - **Investment Suggestion**: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [68]. - **能源化工（烧碱）** - **News**: On June 3, the liquid - caustic soda market price in Shandong was flexibly adjusted [69]. - **Comment**: The supply of liquid caustic soda decreased during the holiday, and the demand was stable. The price of the 09 contract is limited in its downward space [70]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The downward space of the 09 contract is limited [70]. - **能源化工（纸浆）** - **News**: The import wood - pulp spot market price was mainly stable on June 3 [71]. - **Comment**: The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the macro - situation has temporarily stopped warming. The disk is expected to be volatile [71]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The disk is expected to be volatile [72]. - **能源化工（PVC）** - **News**: The domestic PVC powder

Group 1 - The report highlights the relationship between contract goods and industrial enterprise profits, indicating that inventory destocking and order prosperity are key directions for asset allocation [5][7] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.5%, reflecting a slight recovery in manufacturing market demand, although it remains below the first quarter average [11][12] - The report notes that the domestic equity market showed a mixed performance, with 18 industries rising and 13 falling, indicating sector-specific dynamics [6][20] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of external factors such as the U.S. increasing steel import tariffs to 50%, which may affect related industries [17] - It mentions the extension of certain exemptions from the U.S. Section 301 tariffs on China, which could influence trade dynamics [19] - The report emphasizes the need for policies to support growth in light of ongoing economic challenges, particularly in the real estate sector [11][14] Group 3 - The analysis of industrial enterprise profits shows a 3.0% year-on-year increase in April 2025, despite a 2.7% decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), suggesting a complex relationship between costs and profitability [7][8] - The report identifies sectors such as agricultural product processing and electrical machinery as performing well, while sectors like automotive and power equipment faced declines [6][8] - The report indicates that the recovery in manufacturing is supported by a decrease in raw material costs, which may benefit midstream manufacturing leaders [7][8]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent significant decline in tin prices, with macroeconomic factors indicating a slowdown in US economic growth and prolonged maintenance of current interest rates by the Federal Reserve [1] - Domestic policies promoting equipment upgrades and old-for-new exchanges are boosting demand for non-ferrous metals in manufacturing and consumption sectors [1] Group 2: Supply and Import Dynamics - Myanmar accounts for approximately 30.38% of China's tin ore imports, with imported tin ore constituting 47% of domestic supply [1] - In April 2025, China's tin ore imports were 0.98 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 18.48% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.22% [1] - Cumulative tin ore imports from January to April 2025 totaled 3.67 million tons, a significant year-on-year decline of 47.98% [1] - The ban on tin mining in Myanmar since August 2023 has led to persistently low import volumes, exacerbated by unstable import profitability and regional conflicts [1] Group 3: Processing and Refining Impact - Tight supply of tin ore has resulted in a 40% drop in processing fees, with Yunnan's tin concentrate processing fees falling from 17,000 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton [1] - Processing fees are now near the cost line for some enterprises, leading to production cuts [1] - As of May 23, 2025, the operating rate of tin refining plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 56.44%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points from the previous week [2] Group 4: Demand and Industry Trends - Tin solder demand accounts for 68% of the market, with the semiconductor sector representing 80% of tin solder demand [2] - In April 2025, domestic tin solder enterprises had an operating rate of 76.7%, a slight increase of 0.9 percentage points from March but below market expectations [2] - Global semiconductor sales increased by 18.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with an expected annual growth of 11%, potentially driving global tin demand up by 4.4% [2] Group 5: Inventory and Price Outlook - Domestic tin market is entering a destocking phase, with Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory at 8,445 tons, a decrease of 28 tons from the previous week [3] - LME tin inventory also decreased by 70 tons to 2,665 tons [3] - Despite seasonal demand weakness, semiconductor industry growth provides some support for the tin market [3] - Current prices are approaching tariff and cost lows, with potential for strategic buying below 258,000 yuan/ton, targeting mid-term and long-term prices of 290,000 yuan/ton and 330,000 yuan/ton respectively [3]

Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariff Increases - The announcement by President Trump to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% has heightened concerns about global economic impacts, leading to significant declines in U.S. stock markets, with the Nasdaq index dropping as much as 1.7% intraday before closing down 0.85% [1] - Asian markets reacted negatively, with South Korean steel stocks falling sharply and Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.3% following the tariff news [1] - The German Steel Federation expressed concerns that the U.S. tariff increase would escalate transatlantic trade conflicts and exert significant pressure on the European steel industry [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Movements - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified market risk aversion, leading to a significant rise in gold and silver prices, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar [2] - The copper market is experiencing upward pressure due to supply constraints, with COMEX copper futures rising over 5% amid ongoing inventory depletion and potential supply shortages [3] - Despite a rise in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, analysts suggest that OPEC+ production plans may limit the potential for sustained price increases in the oil market [3] Group 3: Future Market Expectations - Analysts predict that after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, commodities such as copper and gold may open higher, with copper potentially exceeding 80,000 yuan/ton and gold surpassing 780 yuan/gram, although there are risks of pullbacks [4] - The domestic futures market is expected to remain weak due to sluggish domestic demand and uncertainties in external demand, with a focus on upcoming macroeconomic policies that may stimulate growth [4]

Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - The significant decrease in coal prices positively impacts the company's profitability due to high energy consumption in production costs [2] - As of May 20, 2025, the number of shareholders is 77,223 [3] - The company aims to expand upstream mining resources, increase production scale, and extend downstream silver deep processing projects to enhance the value chain [3] Group 2: Production Goals and Financial Projections - The production targets for 2025 include: 275,000 tons of processed materials, 1,000 tons of silver (including silver nitrate), 4 tons of gold, 100,000 tons of lead, 12,200 tons of zinc oxide, 3,200 tons of antimony ash, 2,000 tons of copper, and 2,500 tons of bismuth, with a total mining volume of 884,000 tons and lead-zinc ore extraction of 450,000 tons [4] - The expected revenue target for 2025 is 10 billion yuan [4] - The company plans to implement various measures to enhance performance, including expanding raw material procurement channels and improving metal recovery rates [4] Group 3: Future Development and Market Position - The company has a strategic plan focusing on "silver as the main product, dual-driven approach, three development paths, and four major sectors" to enhance profitability through capital operations [4] - The subsidiary Baoshan Mining plans to achieve a total mining volume of 884,000 tons and lead-zinc ore extraction of 450,000 tons in 2025 [4] - The company is working on the resumption of operations at two mining sites in Tibet, which are expected to contribute significantly to future profits [4]

2025 年 05 月 30 日 工业硅：盘面再创新低 多晶硅：波动有所放大，建议谨慎持仓 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2507收盘价（元/吨） | 7,215 | -125 | -665 | -1,660 | | | | Si2507成交量（手） | 539,683 | -85,158 | 331,286 | 392,397 | | | | Si2507持仓量（手） | 224,146 | -1,923 | 40,456 | 41,493 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2507收盘价（元/吨） | 35,280 | 180 | -800 | - | | | | PS2507成交量（手） | 145,339 | -7,933 | 19,077 | - | | | | PS2507持仓量（手） | 78,271 | -1,59 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] Core View - Zinc prices maintain a volatile pattern. The current strong consumption supports zinc prices to oscillate at a high level, but consumption may face a test in June, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$20.21/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 100 yuan/ton to 22,830 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 415 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 170 yuan/ton to 22,860 yuan/ton, and its premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 110 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On May 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,380 yuan/ton and closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 162,225 lots, a decrease of 180,952 lots from the previous day, and positions were 123,007 lots, an increase of 1,439 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,200 - 22,485 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 26, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week. As of May 28, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 143,450 tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - In the spot market, traders continued to hold up prices, and the spot premium remained relatively stable, but downstream procurement sentiment was poor. A zinc smelter in South China extended its maintenance, causing zinc prices to fluctuate and rise, but the rise lacked sustained momentum. Overseas mine output in Q1 was lower than expected, but domestic smelters had sufficient raw material inventories. TC is expected to rise in June, and smelting still has profits, so the supply pressure remains. The current strong consumption supports high - level volatility of zinc prices, but consumption may weaken month - on - month after June [4]

Group 1: Industry Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals for copper prices still provide some support, and Shanghai copper is expected to remain range - bound before the holiday [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as inventory changes and export incentives [2]. - Nickel is expected to have limited downside due to cost support but is likely to experience weak and volatile trading in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus [4]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, and range trading is recommended, with attention on supply and demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - As of May 27, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract fell 0.01% to 77,900 yuan/ton. Macro - disturbances have weakened, but Sino - US trade issues remain uncertain. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the cost pressure on smelters limits price decline. Consumption in May is weaker than in April but better than the same period. Social inventory is at a low level with slight accumulation. The price is expected to be range - bound before the holiday [1]. - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices fell slightly, and the trading was sluggish [6]. - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,128 tons to 34,961 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 2,575 tons to 162,150 tons [15]. Aluminum - As of May 27, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.57% to 20,040 yuan/ton. Some mining licenses in Guinea were revoked. Alumina operating capacity is expected to recover gradually. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. The downstream开工 rate is weakening, but inventory has decreased unexpectedly. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - In the spot market, the trading was stable, and the downstream increased procurement [7]. - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 775 tons to 54,567 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 381,575 tons [15]. Nickel - As of May 27, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract fell 0.58% to 122,310 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and nickel downstream has limited acceptance of high - priced nickel ore. The refined nickel market has an oversupply situation. Nickel is expected to have limited downside due to cost but face long - term supply surplus and weak and volatile trading [3][4]. - In the spot market, nickel prices fell [12]. - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 130 tons to 22,120 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,362 tons to 199,998 tons [15]. Tin - As of May 27, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract rose 0.06% to 264,790 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and consumption in the semiconductor industry is expected to improve. Inventory is at a medium level. Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, and range trading is recommended [5]. - In the spot market, merchants maintained rigid - demand restocking [13]. - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 18 tons to 7,998 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2,660 tons [15]. Zinc - In the spot market, zinc prices rose, and downstream demand led to inventory reduction [9][10]. - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,774 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,350 tons to 151,150 tons [15]. Lead - In the spot market, lead prices fell, and the trading was dull [11]. - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,015 tons to 37,299 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 292,375 tons [15]. Alumina - In the spot market, alumina prices rose in different regions, and the trading was stable [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals still support copper prices, and Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a volatile pattern before the holiday [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as inventory changes and export incentives [2]. - Nickel is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus, although cost support limits the downside [3][4]. - Tin prices are expected to have greater volatility, and range trading is recommended, with attention to supply and demand changes [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basic Metals Copper - As of May 26, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract rose 0.57% to 78,270 yuan/ton. Macro disturbances are weakening, but Sino - US trade uncertainties remain. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the cost pressure of smelters limits price decline. Consumption in May weakened compared to April but is better than the same period. Social inventory is at a low level, and there may be some restocking sentiment before the Dragon Boat Festival [1]. Aluminum - As of May 26, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.05% to 20,155 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. Alumina operating capacity is expected to gradually recover, and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is increasing. The downstream开工率 is declining, but aluminum inventory has been unexpectedly depleted, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. Nickel - As of May 26, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.08% to 122,780 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the downstream nickel - iron industry has losses. The pure nickel is in surplus, and stainless steel demand is average. The cost of nickel is firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3][4]. Tin - As of May 26, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract fell 0.24% to 264,050 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and prices are oscillating. Production and imports have increased, and the semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are strong expectations of mine - end resumption. Prices are expected to fluctuate more, and range trading is recommended [5]. 2. Spot Transaction Summary Copper - Domestic spot copper prices rose. Due to limited restocking demand before the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream procurement was cautious, and only low - priced goods were purchased, with a slight increase in premiums [6]. Aluminum - The spot aluminum market was stable with a slight upward trend. Tight arrivals and inventory depletion supported sellers' price - holding sentiment, but some sellers increased shipments, and overall trading remained active [7]. Other Metals - For zinc, the spot market trading was mediocre, with high premiums due to pre - holiday restocking. For lead, the spot market trading was light. For nickel, the spot market trading was light due to the weekly effect. For tin, the spot market trading was average, and merchants were mainly in a wait - and - see mode [9][11][12][13]. 3. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while lead futures warehouse receipts increased, and zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. LME copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, and tin inventory remained unchanged [15].