中国银河证券：1-2月服装社零迎开门红 全年服装 内需消费或逐季环比改善 中国银河（601881）证券发布研报称，2025年1-2月全国社零总额83731亿元，同比增长4.0%。该行 认为2025全年服装内需消费将会呈现逐季度环比改善趋势。政府大力提振内需的政策方向上有望受益。 户外场景渗透，国产体育龙头在丰富品类，精细化管理上具有竞争优势。家纺消费场景修复，消费补贴 加持需求提振。聚焦拥有优质客户、国际化产能布局的优质纺织龙头企业。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 2025年1-2月服装社零开门红，看好政策加持下消费稳复苏 2025年1-2月全国社零总额83731亿元，同比增长4.0%。其中服装零售总额2624亿元，同比增长 3.3%，在年初以来天气偏暖以及春节时点提前、服装消费高基数的背景下，取得了稳健增长。对比 2024年Q4来看，服装零售在2024年11/12月份同比增速分别为-4.5%/-0.3%，冬季旺季销售偏弱，但在政 策加持下内需提振效果在25年1-2月已经有所显现。该行认为2025全年服装内需消费将会呈现逐季度环 比改善趋势，一方面消费政策持续发力，另一方面24年消费低基数和暖冬影响将会在202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government's strategy in response to external uncertainties is to stabilize consumption in the short term while focusing on technological innovation for future growth [2][4]. Economic Growth and Inflation Targets - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, aligning with the need to maintain employment and stabilize the economy amid external changes [4][10]. - The inflation target has been adjusted down to around 2%, reflecting a more pragmatic approach to managing price levels and addressing low inflation concerns [5][10]. Employment and Agricultural Goals - The urban unemployment rate target remains at around 5.5%, with a goal of creating 12 million new urban jobs, indicating a focus on employment stability [6]. - The grain production target has been raised to 1.4 trillion jin, emphasizing the importance of food security in the face of external challenges [7]. Fiscal Policy and Government Investment - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at 4%, with a new deficit scale of 566 billion yuan, indicating a more proactive fiscal stance [10][11]. - Government investment will focus on major strategic projects, aiming to leverage public investment to stimulate social investment and improve overall investment efficiency [34][36]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated to support economic growth [18][20]. - The focus will be on balancing liquidity and maintaining stable financing costs, with an emphasis on supporting technology, consumption, and the real estate market [19][21]. Consumption and Consumer Confidence - The government aims to boost consumption through various measures, including subsidies for upgrading consumer goods and enhancing service consumption [24][25]. - Policies will focus on increasing disposable income and reducing household burdens to enhance consumer confidence and spending [26][27]. Technological Innovation and Industrial Development - The government emphasizes the importance of technological innovation in driving new productive forces and modernizing the industrial system [38]. - There will be a push for the integration of technology and industry, fostering the development of advanced manufacturing and modern service sectors [38].

作 者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 联 系 人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产分化，建筑业开工较弱，地产成交大幅提升。 【 工业生产】工业生产分化。 本周，下游开工继续回暖，汽车半钢胎开工率大幅回升，同比上上行至 3%；涤纶长丝开工延续改善，同比1.1%。对比之下，中上游开工仍有小幅回落，高炉开工同比-0.8pct至 2%，PTA开工同比-3.5%。 【建筑业开工】基建开工较弱。 本周，沥青开工率再度回落，同比-5.8pct至-2.8%。全国粉磨开工率、水 泥出货率也低于去年同期，同比分别-8.5pct至-10.3%、-6pct至-11.5%。 【下游需求】全国新房成交大幅提升，观影消费延续高位。 本周，全国新房成交同比升至50.8%；不同能 级城市均表现较好，一线、二线、三线城市成同比分别升至64.9%、41.7%、55.6%。电影消费延续高位， 观影人次、票房收入同比分别132.8%、149.6%。但人流出行强度持续回落，全国迁徙规模指数同 比-7.6pct至6%。 【物价】农产品价格普遍回落，工业品价格延续下滑。 本周，农产品方面，蔬菜、猪肉、鸡蛋、水果价 格环比分别-2.1%、-0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the U.S. increasing tariffs on China to 20%, particularly focusing on the economic implications and China's response strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - A 20% tariff could reduce China's nominal GDP by approximately 0.69 percentage points, translating to a potential real GDP growth reduction of about 0.49 percentage points, assuming no other variables change [1][5]. - The estimated impact on total export growth could range from -2.61% to -4.70%, depending on the elasticity of export prices [2]. - Key industries such as chemicals, textiles, and machinery, which have a higher export share to the U.S. (10-15%), are expected to face significant challenges due to the tariffs [2][3]. Group 2: China's Response Strategies - China has adopted a principle of rapid response and precise countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, including retaliatory tariffs on U.S. coal and fuel [3][4]. - Measures include anti-monopoly investigations targeting major U.S. tech companies and export controls on critical minerals needed for U.S. military and high-tech manufacturing [3][4]. Group 3: Future Macro Policy Considerations - The Chinese government is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding macroeconomic policies, with no immediate need for intervention as the economy shows signs of stabilization [5]. - If the tariffs are fully implemented, it is estimated that fiscal measures would need to be between 0.62 trillion to 1.33 trillion yuan to offset the economic impact, with a median estimate of 0.98 trillion yuan being a suitable scale for counteraction [5].

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric equipment industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The Guangdong carbon market has achieved a near balance between carbon emission allowances issued and actual emissions, although it remains slightly loose. The total carbon emissions from key industries such as steel, cement, paper, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and electricity are approximately 355-396 million tons, with average allowances issued around 425-451 million tons [1][2] - By 2025, significant changes are expected in the industries under the Guangdong carbon market, with steel and cement likely exiting the market to comply with national regulations, while the textile industry is anticipated to be included with a control scale of approximately 1.5-4 million tons [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Background and Mechanism of Guangdong Carbon Market - The Guangdong carbon market was established to address climate change, with a goal to reduce carbon emissions by 40%-45% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. The market began operations in 2013, covering key industries [11][12] - The total carbon emission allowances represent 75%-90% of Guangdong's total emissions (excluding Shenzhen), with the power generation sector being the largest contributor [12][13] Section 2: Key Issues in the Guangdong Carbon Market - The report analyzes the carbon emissions and theoretical allowances for each regulated industry, noting that the overall emissions are directly related to production capacity and utilization rates [38] - The carbon market has seen a gradual expansion in the number of regulated industries, with the threshold for inclusion being lowered over time [17][18] - The distribution of allowances combines free and paid methods, with a significant portion of allowances being issued for free to encourage compliance and reduce costs for industries [19][22]

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以下文章来源于秦朔朋友圈 ，作者巫珩 秦朔朋友圈 . 秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于 经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。 一个遗憾。 作者 I 巫珩 来源 I 秦朔朋友圈 在香港，李嘉诚连续20年登顶亚洲首富。四大富豪之一的刘銮雄，以"股市狙击手"和"铜锣湾铺王"著称，成为香港商界的一大传奇人 物。 再远眺海外，立邦漆创始人吴清亮2 02 1年登上新加坡首富，被誉为"亚洲漆王"。正大集团创始人谢氏兄弟，连续多年霸占泰国首富， 业务小到作物种子和鱼肉供应，大到信息通讯、银行房产，几乎可以说涵盖了泰国人的一生。此外，加拿大、欧洲、澳洲等地的华人 首富桂冠也曾由潮汕人拿下。 正是这些风云人物，将潮汕帮推向了顶级商帮的地位。然而，当我们将目光转回到潮汕老家，却发现这片土地并没有想象中那么发 达，甚至最常听到一句评价，汕头是最落后的经济特区。 为什么反差会如此之大？我先来给你分享一个故事。 （ID：qspyq2015） 潮汕帮有多风光，可能潮汕就有多失 ...