几乎同时，为便利上海航运人才赴港澳开展科研学术和经贸活动等，服务促进沪港澳合作交流，上海市 交通委员会会同市公安局出入境管理总队制定措施，航运领域高层次管理和专业技术人才自2026年1月4 日起可在上海全市任一出入境办证窗口，申请办理有效期最长1年的多次往来港澳人才签注，每次可停 留不超过30天。 在全球航运格局深度调整的背景下，上海正以更开放的姿态、更精准的政策，全力构筑航运人才高地。 上海国际航运中心建设已进入深化提质的关键阶段。 近日，上海市接连推出两项重要人才政策，不仅将远洋船舶高级船员、民用航空空中交通管制员等纳入 航运专门人才引进范围，而且还为在上海工作的航运领域高层次管理和专业技术人才提供签注便利化政 策。这一"引进"与"便利"的双重组合，标志着上海在国际航运中心建设进程中，正从"硬件投入"转 向"软件升级"，通过制度型开放与人才战略的深度融合，为航运业高质量发展注入持久动能。 从落户放宽到"走出去"便利 为了进一步加大航运专门人才引进力度，日前出台的《上海市引进人才申办本市常住户口办法实施细 则》，首次将"远洋船舶轮机长、大副、大管轮"和"民用航空空中交通管制员"明确列入航运专门人才范 围。 ...

德路里世界集装箱运价综合指数（WCI）显示，截至1月22日，综合运价指数周环比下跌10%，至2212 美元/FEU，主要航线均呈现疲软态势。其中跨太平洋航线跌幅达到11%，亚欧/地中海航线下降9%，跨 大西洋航线回落4%。面对需求波动，船公司正加大运力调控力度，未来五周已安排109个停航，停航比 例达16%。据分析，集装箱市场在年初的不确定性中持续波动，扰动因素包括亚洲始发运价走低、跨大 西洋航线承压、红海航线通航决策反复等。 ...

Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能) shares have increased by approximately 5.29%, reaching HKD 13.54, with a trading volume of HKD 108 million, following new sanctions imposed by the U.S. Treasury Department on entities related to Iran's energy and shipping sectors [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The report from Caitong Securities indicates that COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy (招商轮船) will benefit from scalable tanker capacity, showing significant earnings elasticity [1] - For instance, a daily increase of USD 10,000 in TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) is expected to raise annual net profits by approximately CNY 950 million for COSCO Shipping Energy [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Historical analysis suggests that during the peak of the shipping market over the past decade, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for oil shipping companies could reach 13-15 times, indicating potential for valuation improvement in the A-share oil shipping sector [1] - If the compliant market supply and demand further improve, it may enhance the valuations of oil shipping companies, highlighting the discount opportunities for related Hong Kong stocks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to increased domestic conflicts over illegal immigration in the US [11][12]. - US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season, with increased volatility [16][17]. - Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback after a continuous sharp rise [20]. - The bond market is experiencing a short - term rebound, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued [23][24]. - Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term as supply is at a high level and downstream restocking has ended [25][26]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [31]. - Palm oil is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [35]. - The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [37][38]. - The domestic sugar market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term due to seasonal supply pressure and limited demand [42]. - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [47]. - Copper prices are likely to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [51]. - Lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [53][54]. - Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [57]. - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and a bullish strategy is recommended with attention to position control and risk management [60][61]. - Tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of supply recovery expectations and consumption recovery [65]. - Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. - EU carbon prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. - Oil prices are expected to be supported by short - term geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions [71][72]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to see a mild recovery in processing fees around the Spring Festival [76]. - The container shipping index is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Europe is estimated to need $1 trillion to restructure its defense industry. The shooting of a US citizen by ICE has intensified domestic conflicts over illegal immigration, causing the dollar index to weaken. The Trump administration is expected to maintain a tough stance on illegal immigration, and market volatility will remain high. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [9][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in January was 56.4, reaching a five - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The US economy shows resilience, and the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short - term. The market is worried about the Fed's independence, and US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base on Greenland is located. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The New York Federal Reserve Bank conducted a "rate check" on the US dollar/yen exchange rate. Precious metals continued to rise strongly on Friday, reaching a new high. The market is trading on the safe - haven and de - dollarization needs caused by the tense situation between the US and Europe. The sharp rise of the yen and the fall of the dollar after the US and Japan jointly signaled to intervene in the foreign exchange market boosted the precious metals. However, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment and funds, and the risk is increasing. Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 125 billion yuan, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan. The bond market continued to strengthen, mainly due to the alleviation of previous concerns. However, there are still long - term negative factors, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The CSRC issued a guidance on the performance comparison benchmark for public funds. Due to strong bullish expectations, funds flowed into small - cap stocks, causing market differentiation. The regulatory authorities are expected to take stricter and more precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market is likely to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - position strategy for the stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market remained stable. The supply in some areas increased slightly, while the downstream restocking ended, and the market sentiment declined. Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.849 billion tons. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. Before the Spring Festival, steel prices are expected to be volatile and may rebound slightly. It is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [27][29][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The EU plans to gradually phase out soybean biofuels. The establishment of the Southeast Asian Sustainable Aviation Fuel Council. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased, and the estimated volume for the next week is higher. The palm oil market is supported by inventory reduction and Ramadan expectations, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales reached the highest level of the year. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and it is expected to remain high. The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports increased. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil decreased in the second half of December. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [39][41][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The import of Indian cotton yarn decreased, while the import of polyester - cotton blended yarn increased. The EU's clothing import rebounded in November 2025, and the import from China increased. The US cotton export signing reached a new high, but the export progress is still behind. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [43][44][47]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chilean contractor protests blocked access to mines. Tibet Julong Copper's second - phase project was put into operation. The Chilean Mining Association warned that it will take several years for copper supply to increase. The short - term macro factors support copper prices, but the fundamental factors may suppress price increases. Copper prices are likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [48][50][51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. The production of primary lead was stable, the profit of secondary lead refineries narrowed, and the consumption of lead batteries was weak. The social inventory increased, and lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [52][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A gold mine in Mexico was temporarily shut down. The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and MMG's zinc ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the smelting profit improved slightly, and the demand was affected by multiple factors. Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The retail and wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in the first 18 days of January 2026 decreased year - on - year. Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply last week. The demand is strong, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a bullish strategy with attention to position control and risk management [58][60][61]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The first domestic satellite computing power module was launched. The LME tin spread was at a discount, and the inventory increased. The import of tin concentrate in December increased year - on - year. The supply is expected to increase in 2026, but there are uncertainties. The demand is weak, and tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term [62][63][65]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The port logistics of the Indonesian Qing Shan Industrial Park was suspected of monopoly. The nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is expected to be adjusted, and the global primary nickel gap is expected to be more than 100,000 metric tons. The raw material price rose, and the demand for nickel salt increased. Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of the EUA main contract decreased. The EU carbon price remained high and volatile last week. The CoT data helped boost the market. The carbon price is expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The production of a Kazakhstani oil field was delayed due to a power failure and export problems. The number of US oil rigs increased. The oil price rose on Friday, supported by the risk of supply disruptions and the increase in diesel cracking spreads [70][71][72]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories continued to rise. The polyester raw material price rose strongly, and the bottle - chip factory quotation increased. The market trading atmosphere was fair, and the downstream was cautious. The industry operating rate decreased, and the inventory pressure was transferred smoothly. The processing fee is expected to recover mildly around the Spring Festival [73][75][76]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Wildfires and rough seas restricted the operation of some ports in Chile. The short - term market is weak, and the European - line futures are expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to whether the index will be higher due to container dumping and late ship departures [77][78].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies including SF Holding, Cao Cao Travel, and Jitu Express [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the explosive growth of instant retail driven by major companies' investments, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities in SF Express's urban delivery segment [1]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of overseas e-commerce and the ongoing recovery in domestic demand, with a focus on companies like Jitu Express and Zhongtong Express [3][18]. - The aviation sector is projected to see a historical high in passenger volume during the 2026 Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [11][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly View and Market Review - The transportation sector index rose by 1.76%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.93 percentage points [21]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included warehousing logistics, road freight, and public transport, with increases of 6.05%, 5.91%, and 4.09% respectively [21]. Aviation - The Civil Aviation Administration of China forecasts a record 95 million passengers during the 2026 Spring Festival, with domestic and international routes showing significant growth [11][12]. - The aviation sector is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12]. Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates due to geopolitical risks, with daily rates reaching $107,937 on the Middle East route [13]. - Dry bulk freight rates are recovering, with the BDI index reaching 1,762 points [14]. - The report emphasizes the potential for LNG transport to enter a different economic cycle, highlighting companies like CIMC Anrui [16]. Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: overseas expansion driven by e-commerce growth and domestic market consolidation amid competitive pressures [3][18]. - In December 2025, the express delivery industry handled 18.2 billion packages, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [19]. - The report notes a divergence in performance among leading express companies, with Zhongtong and YTO showing growth while SF Express faced a decline due to strategic business adjustments [20].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, Invesco Great Wall Dividend Quantitative Stock A (022344), reported a profit of 169,100 yuan for Q4 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0224 yuan. The fund's net asset value growth rate was 2.05%, and the fund size reached 8.1173 million yuan by the end of Q4 2025 [3][12]. Fund Performance - As of January 22, the unit net value was 1.136 yuan. The fund manager, Xu Yujun and Li Haiwei, currently manage five funds. The highest one-year cumulative net value growth rate among these funds was 58.62% for Invesco Great Wall SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index Enhanced A, while the lowest was 52.19% for Invesco Great Wall CSI 500 Index Enhanced A [3]. - The fund's net value growth rate over the last three months was 3.38%, ranking 94 out of 121 comparable funds, and over the last six months, it was 4.01%, ranking 105 out of 121 [3]. Investment Strategy - The fund is an actively managed quantitative fund primarily focused on high-dividend stocks. The investment portfolio emphasizes fundamental quantitative stock selection, maintaining a balance between value and growth styles, while focusing on companies with good cash flow and stable internal growth. The strategy aims to generate sustained excess returns through bottom-up stock selection amid market volatility [3]. Risk Metrics - As of December 31, the fund's Sharpe ratio since inception was 0.1449 [4]. - The maximum drawdown since inception was 6.63%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q4 2025 at 5.46% [7]. Fund Holdings - As of Q4 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included China COSCO Shipping, Chongqing Bank, Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, Shanxi Coal International, China Shenhua Energy, Industrial Bank, Guiyang Bank, Haohua Energy, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [15]. Portfolio Allocation - The average stock position since inception was 85.84%, compared to the industry average of 88.34%. The fund reached a peak stock position of 91.95% at the end of Q3 2025 and a low of 79.57% at the end of Q4 2025 [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the transportation sector, but it recommends specific companies such as SF Express and China Southern Airlines based on their performance and market conditions [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 2.3% year-on-year growth in business volume in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition. The total express business revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, a 6.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with companies like Haichen Co. being recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight decline in flight volumes, but ticket prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and improved demand, with recommendations for airlines like Air China and China Southern Airlines [4]. - The shipping sector shows mixed signals, with container shipping rates declining while oil transport rates are increasing significantly [5]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index increased by 1.6% during the week of January 17-23, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.6% [1][13]. Express Delivery - In December, the express delivery business volume reached 182.1 million pieces, a 2.3% increase year-on-year. The total revenue for the express delivery sector in 2025 is expected to be 1.5 trillion yuan, with a 6.5% growth [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index remained stable, and the logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Haichen Co. recommended for its growth potential [3]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights decreased by 9.19% year-on-year, but ticket prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints. Recommendations include Air China and China Southern Airlines [4][59]. Shipping - The container shipping index showed a slight decline, with the CCFI at 1208.75 points, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 22.4% year-on-year. However, oil transport rates are increasing, with the BDTI index rising by 12.5% week-on-week [5][41]. Road and Rail - The national highway freight traffic saw a slight increase of 1.87% week-on-week, while the railway passenger volume increased by 8.52% year-on-year [81].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry [2] Core Views - The shipping sector is experiencing high oil tanker rates and improving bulk freight rates, while the express delivery industry is expected to see a growth rate of 13.6% year-on-year in 2025 [1][6][19] Shipping - Oil tanker rates remain high, influenced by geopolitical tensions, with the market sentiment showing signs of volatility [6][12] - The dry bulk shipping market is showing signs of improvement, with increased inquiries from Australian miners and rising grain prices from South America [14][15] - Key stocks to focus on include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, Haitong Development, and Pacific Shipping [6][15] Infrastructure - Weekly data shows a slight increase in truck traffic, with 56.12 million vehicles recorded, a 1.87% increase week-on-week, but a 1.6% decrease year-on-year [16][17] - Port throughput reached 261.318 million tons, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, while container throughput increased by 7.5% [16][17] - Recommended stocks include Anhui Expressway, which is seen as a stable cash flow asset with low current valuations [17] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a total volume of 199 billion items in 2025, a 13.6% increase year-on-year, with December showing a 2.3% increase [18][19] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express and ZTO Express showing potential for profit growth in 2026 [19] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [19] Aviation - The aviation sector is currently in a transitional phase due to the Spring Festival timing, with passenger numbers showing a 9.9% year-on-year decrease [20][21] - The industry is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026 [21] - Key metrics to monitor include passenger volume and ticket pricing trends during the Spring Festival [21] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing fluctuations in air freight prices, with a recent decrease of 2% week-on-week but a 7.4% increase year-on-year [22]

Group 1 - The construction of the Wuhan Yangtze River Midstream Shipping Center is entering a rapid development phase driven by both policy and market factors, with specific measures announced to support the modern shipping service industry [1][2] - The Jianghan District has introduced 19 specific measures to promote high-quality development in the shipping service sector, including financial support for new shipping enterprises and public service platforms [2] - The "Hanya Direct Shipping" initiative plans to open two new micro-circulation routes this year to enhance the hub capabilities of Wuhan Port [1][3] Group 2 - The "Wuhan City Three-Year Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of the Yangtze River Midstream Shipping Center (2025-2027)" identifies the construction of a modern shipping service industry cluster as one of its four key tasks [2] - The market is showing active performance, with the "Hanya Direct Shipping" achieving a record high of 70,000 TEUs transported in 2025, and a total of 687 voyages completed [3] - The company plans to implement a channel construction strategy in 2026, including the opening of direct shipping routes from Wuhan to Qingdao and other northern ports, further enhancing the shipping network [3]

（文章来源：人民日报） 近日，交通运输部海事局发布通告，我国船员电子证书正式获得国际海事组织认可。自2025年8月在国 内推行以来，该证书已实现从"国内通"到"全球通"的重要跨越，标志着我国船员证书数字化进入国际认 可新阶段。 交通运输部海事局有关负责人介绍，我国船员电子证书的覆盖种类十分全面，不仅包含国际海事组织规 定的船员适任证书、培训合格证、健康证明等6类核心证书，还将船上厨师培训合格证明、船上膳食服 务辅助人员培训证明也纳入了电子化管理范围。获得国际认可后，远洋船员在办理上船手续等环节时， 无需再携带大量纸质证书。目前，我国已建立完善的船员电子证书行业标准和数据管理体系，采用数字 签名等先进技术，确保证书全生命周期的数据安全可靠、全程可追溯。同时，证书的格式规范和验证机 制均与国际规则深度对接，从技术和规则层面双重保障了境外应用的便捷性和有效性。 ...