Group 1 - The visit of Canadian Prime Minister Carney to China from January 14 to 17 is significant as it marks his first visit to China since taking office and the first visit by a Canadian Prime Minister in eight years, indicating a potential shift in diplomatic relations [2][4] - The visit is seen as both an economic action and a political signal, reflecting Canada's need to diversify its trade relationships and reduce dependence on the U.S. amid ongoing trade tensions [4][6] - Canada aims to double its exports to non-U.S. markets over the next decade, with China being a key partner, as bilateral trade has grown significantly from $150 million in 1970 to an estimated $93 billion in 2024 [4][5] Group 2 - The current economic challenges in Canada, including a projected GDP decline of 0.3% in October 2025, highlight the urgency for Canada to seek increased exports to China and attract Chinese investments [4][6] - The trade relationship between Canada and China remains complementary, with Canada exporting primarily energy and agricultural products to China, while importing electronics and machinery [5][6] - Key issues for discussion during the visit include potential breakthroughs in electric vehicle tariffs and agricultural trade, which have been significant barriers to expanding trade relations [8][9] Group 3 - The delegation accompanying Carney includes key cabinet ministers, indicating a comprehensive approach to addressing trade, energy, agriculture, and international security [8] - Recent public opinion polls show that a majority of Canadians support reaching a trade agreement with China, reflecting a potential shift in public sentiment towards strengthening bilateral ties [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Coke, Coal [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Cautious: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Wait - and - See: Polysilicon [1] Core Views - The stock index may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment, and the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are expected to be strong, while alumina prices will fluctuate. Zinc and nickel prices have uncertainties due to policies and fundamentals, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - The prices of lithium carbonate, rebar, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment, showing a state of shock or limited upward space [1]. - The prices of agricultural products such as palm oil, cotton, and sugar are affected by supply - demand relationships and market news, with different trends [1]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as policies, supply - demand, and cost, and different products have different trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index and Bond Futures - Stock Index: After a volume - based breakthrough, it may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment as the market trading volume remains high [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: With improved market sentiment and tight ore supply, copper prices are expected to remain strong [1]. - Aluminum: Limited industrial drive, but restricted supply and improved macro - sentiment are expected to drive prices higher [1]. - Alumina: There is a large release space on the supply side, but the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Zinc: The cost center is stable, but there is inventory pressure. Although the price has made up for losses due to good macro - sentiment, the upside space is limited [1]. - Nickel: The market's concern about supply has decreased, but policy implementation is uncertain. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw - material price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing slightly. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin: The price has risen due to good macro - sentiment and supply disturbances, but there is pressure on the fundamentals, and long - term low - position buying is recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks, the Fed's independence crisis, and lower - than - expected CPI have boosted prices, but the price fluctuations are large [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: The macro - environment is favorable, but the fundamentals are not as solid as precious metals. In the short term, they will fluctuate widely, and long - term low - position buying of platinum is recommended [1]. Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing, while southwest production is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: In the traditional peak season of new - energy vehicles, the demand for energy storage is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the price is in shock [1]. - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: High production and inventory suppress price increases, and the transmission of futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be participated in [1]. - Iron Ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations, and supply may be disturbed by energy - consumption control and anti - involution [1]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The short - term market sentiment is warming, but the medium - term supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity - reduction" expectation continues to ferment, there may be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: After the release of the MPOB report, wait for the opportunity to buy when the origin reduces production and inventory and the biodiesel story unfolds. Short - term waiting is recommended [1]. - Cotton: The market is currently in a state of "with support but no driving force". Future factors such as policies, planting intentions, and weather should be concerned [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: The selling progress has slowed down but is still faster than the same period last year. The port inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the USDA report, the internal market is expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the soybean auction [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuela [1]. - Fuel Oil and Bitumen: They follow the trend of crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - PTA and Short Fiber: The PX market has risen, and domestic PTA maintains high - level operation. The short - fiber price follows the cost [1]. - Styrene: The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on the overseas market [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, but the cost support is strong, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices [1]. - PVC: The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the market will trade based on fundamentals. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is at a low level [1]. - LPG: The import cost is supported, and the risk premium has increased. The inventory is expected to decrease, and the downstream demand is expected to increase [1]. Others - Container Shipping on the European Route: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA January supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, higher than market expectations. It further reduced US soybean exports to 1.575 billion bushels and raised the global soybean ending inventory to 124.11 million tons, which is bearish. The US soybean quarterly stocks report also showed that the December quarterly inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, higher than expected and bearish. With no significant weather - driven speculation in South America in the short term, and Brazil starting harvest, the impact of January harvest selling pressure on Brazilian CNF premiums should be monitored. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly. The recent full - premium auction of imported soybeans reflects the market's expectation of a soybean shortage in March, but the large auction volume will supplement the domestic soybean supply in Q1 [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Basis Data - On January 13th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 379, up 19; the 43% soybean meal spot basis against the main contract in Rizhao was 399, up 29; in Tianjin was 439, up 29; in Dongguan was 359, up 9; in Zhanjiang was 419, up 29; in Fangcheng was 419, up 19; the rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 90; M3 - 2 was 356, up 29 [6]. 3.2 Inventory and Production - related Data - Data on China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills' soybean crushing volume, and national major oil mills' operating rate are presented in the form of historical trend charts from 2018 - 2025 [7][8]. 3.3 Spread and International Data - Spread data includes RM1 - 5, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong, and the futures spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the main contract. International data shows the 2025 Brazilian soybean CNF premium trend chart and the 2025 imported soybean futures gross margin [12].

2026 年 1 月 14 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 16 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.28%报 111.350 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 107.850 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%报 105.625 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.330 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 13 日以固定利率、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly consists of various commodity futures data. Summary by Commodity Categories 1. Power Coal - Provided power coal basis data from January 7 - 14, 2026, with the basis on January 13 being -100 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Presented basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 7 - 13, 2026, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt [7] Chemical Commodities - Showed cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol from January 7 - 13, 2026 [9][10] 3. Black Metals - Provided cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 7 - 13, 2026 [19][20][21] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Presented domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 7 - 13, 2026 [30] London Market - Showed LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals on January 13, 2026 [33] 5. Agricultural Products - Provided basis, cross - period, and cross - variety data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, sugar, and cotton from January 7 - 13, 2026 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - Presented basis and cross - period data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 7 - 13, 2026 [49][51]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product morning report released by the research center's agricultural product team on January 14, 2026 [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price in Changchun remained stable, while in Jinzhou and Weifang, it increased by 10. The price in Shekou rose by 10. Corn's basis increased by 16, and the import profit increased by 80. Starch's basis increased by 5, and the processing profit increased by 21 [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are expected to be moderately strong due to limited supply increase and downstream stocking expectations. Starch prices are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, depending on pre - holiday downstream stocking enthusiasm [3] - Long - term: For corn, focus on import and domestic auction policies. For starch, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and post - season inventory reduction [3] Group 3: Sugar Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis increased by 32, the import profit from Thailand decreased by 18, and that from Brazil decreased by 17. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6] Market Analysis - International: In the 2025/2026 sugar - crushing season, the northern hemisphere's major producers are expected to increase production in the long - term. Pay attention to the actual realization of the production increase [6] - Domestic: In the short - term, the supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the price is based on domestic sugar cost and spot price. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price will approach the cost of out - of - quota imports [6] Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis - The low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, consumption - promoting policies, and good export performance, cotton demand is expected to improve. The planting area in Xinjiang will decrease in the new season, so cotton is suitable for long - term long positions [9] Group 5: Eggs Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan increased, with the largest increase of 0.20 in Shandong. The basis increased by 20, and the price of substitute products such as white - feather broilers and yellow - feather broilers remained unchanged, while the price of live pigs increased by 0.21 [15] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key to the decline rate of inventory lies in the culling rhythm. In Hebei, if the spot price remains low before Laba Festival, a batch of hens over 400 days old will be culled, which is beneficial to egg prices in the second quarter [16] Group 6: Apples Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900. The 1 - month basis decreased by 149, and the 5 - month basis decreased by 69 [18][19] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple production area is still light. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of medium - and low - quality apples have declined. As of January 7, 2026, the national inventory decreased by 126,600 tons compared with last week. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and in the medium - term, the overall pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [19] Group 7: Pigs Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.10, and the basis increased by 40 [19] Market Analysis - The weekend spot price of pigs first rose and then fell. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and there may be short - term supply - demand mismatches. Price increases depend on further production and inventory reduction in the near - term. Pay attention to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [19]

Core Insights - Ghana's trade with Europe is more extensive than its trade with neighboring African countries, raising questions about structural bottlenecks that limit intra-African trade [1][2] - The European Union remains one of Ghana's largest trading partners, with significant exports including cocoa, gold, oil, and processed agricultural products, while imports consist of machinery, pharmaceuticals, and manufactured goods [1] - In 2022, the top five export destinations for Ghana were Switzerland and Liechtenstein, China, the United States, the UAE, and India, with Europe and Asia accounting for approximately 77% of Ghana's total imports, while imports from Africa only made up 11% [1] - High transportation costs, limited railway connections, and inefficient ports and border crossings are key factors restricting intra-African trade, making it often cheaper and faster for Ghanaian exporters to ship goods to Rotterdam or Antwerp than to nearby African markets [1] - Ghana's export structure is heavily reliant on primary products, with gold accounting for 38% of total exports, mineral fuels and oils at 31%, and cocoa at 12%, leading to limited opportunities for complementary trade among African nations unless value addition is increased [2] - Analysts believe that the trade gap between Ghana and Europe versus Africa may gradually narrow with the ongoing development of the African Continental Free Trade Area, contingent on sustained policy reforms, infrastructure investment, and active private sector participation [2]

Core Insights - The WASDE report released on Monday was unexpected and continues to impact the grain futures market, leading to a decline in prices [1] - The USDA did not lower the crop yield outlook for 2025 as anticipated, indicating that the amount of grain stored in farmers' silos exceeded expectations [1] - Analysts noted that the report was a triple negative for corn, soybeans, and wheat, with expectations of a potential rebound in futures prices not yet materializing [1] Grain Futures Market - The most actively traded corn futures fell by 0.8%, soybean futures decreased by 0.5%, and wheat futures dropped by 0.3% following the report [1] - Naomi Blohm from Total Farm Marketing described the report's impact as a significant negative for the grain market [1]

Core Insights - The overall price of 62 consumer goods in Binzhou, Shandong Province remained stable in December, with 23 items increasing, 28 remaining unchanged, and 11 decreasing compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Grain and Oil Prices - Wheat prices remained stable at an average of 1.26 yuan per jin, up 3.27% year-on-year, while corn prices increased to 1.11 yuan per jin, up 1.55% month-on-month and 10.32% year-on-year [1] - The prices of staple oils remained stable, with average prices for various types of flour and rice holding steady [1] Group 2: Meat Prices - Pork prices decreased, with retail prices for lean pork at 14.56 yuan per jin, down 1.94% month-on-month and 14.56% year-on-year; prices for other pork cuts also saw declines [2] - Beef and lamb prices remained stable month-on-month, with beef at 39.2 yuan per jin and lamb at 41.79 yuan per jin, reflecting year-on-year increases of 4.64% and 5.25% respectively [2] Group 3: Egg and Vegetable Prices - Egg prices increased to 3.45 yuan per jin, up 4.87% month-on-month but down 30.15% year-on-year [3] - Vegetable prices saw a slight increase, with an average price of 3.94 yuan per jin, up 3.32% month-on-month and 17.81% year-on-year; specific vegetables like cabbage and eggplant experienced significant price hikes [3] Group 4: Fruit Prices - Fruit prices predominantly increased, with watermelon and tangerine prices rising by 14.35% and 15.34% month-on-month respectively; other fruits like apples and bananas remained stable [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "Helping Market - Galloping into Spring" consumer assistance themed market was launched in Guangzhou, aiming to support local farmers and promote their products while enhancing community engagement [2][3][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The market took place on January 13 at the North Square of the 289 Art Park in Yuexiu District, Guangzhou, organized by the Southern Rural Newspaper and the Guangdong Regional Collaborative Consumer Assistance Product Trading Center [2][3]. - The event attracted a large number of local residents, providing a platform for purchasing various agricultural products and engaging in interactive activities [3][4]. Group 2: Product Offerings - The market featured a wide array of agricultural specialty products from various provinces, including Guangdong, Guizhou, Fujian, Yunnan, and Jilin, showcasing items such as dried goods, local cured meats, grains, and tea gift boxes [5][7][21]. - Notable products included the "Guangdong Three Treasures Gift Box," "Liupanshui Mushrooms," and "Hakka Daughter Wine," which drew interest from attendees [11][12][13]. Group 3: Community Engagement - The market facilitated a unique shopping experience where consumers could contribute to charity through their purchases, embodying the concept of "buying to help" [27][28]. - Interactive activities, such as the "Circle Game" and "Blind Box Lottery," enhanced the festive atmosphere and encouraged participation, with prizes including local specialty snacks and creative household items [22][24][25][26]. Group 4: Strategic Goals - The event served as a practical implementation of consumer assistance, helping to raise awareness of the quality of supporting products while establishing direct sales channels for farmers [28][29]. - The Guangdong Regional Collaborative Consumer Assistance Product Trading Center aims to integrate consumer assistance into regular activities, leveraging media partnerships to continuously promote love and warmth within the community [36][37].